Thomas Röwekamp, Chairman of the Bundestag’s Defense Committee, has called for transferring long-range missiles to Ukraine, striking Russian drone production sites, and authorizing NATO to shoot down drones inside Ukrainian airspace. These are the very three measures The Concis recommended yesterday after Russian drones entered Poland.
Did you see this this morning, Shankar? (thanks for this excellent report).
“In Russia's Leningrad region, unidentified drones struck the oil port of Primorsk, igniting one of the ships, says the governor of the Leningrad region, Alexander Drozdenko.”
I think this wasn't a probe but actually a provocation to get NATO to overreact so that Putin had cover to mobilize Moscow and St Petersburg (defend the fatherland!). With the masterfully bland statement from NATO and the quite shuffling of posture, NATO hasn't provided Russia with a cover to expand mobilization.
Putin gambled and I think lost. Now more AWE&Cs are flying closer to the Ukrainian border, more intelligence sharing (read AWE&C track sharing) with Ukraine and more AD/air patrols in Poland.
Agree, this attack has so many layers to it. My recommendation would be for Europe to deliver the long range missiles to Ukraine and give them go at it signal.
Also the new Polish President went all in on Trump, only for Trump to cast aside Poland. I know he said he would be doing more foreign policy work but I think his wings will have now have been clipped.
The United States is a collective, useless and vapid, pandering idiot. I have been saying that for months although some of the evidence has perhaps indicated that I was incorrect. But I don’t think so.
In my mind it’s useless to try to define the reasons WHY Trump is acting the way he is. Kompromat? I don’t care, because Biden pulled the same garbage. Peace initiative? Even less so because it’s not true. Power monger? Dangerous, because at this moment, few in the Trump cabinet have sufficient intellectual capacity to pull it off.
Europe needs to get this needle out of its arm and move forward. We live in desperate times. Pandering to the US will keep us there.
Great analysis Shankar, it sounds like the West needs to manufacture their version of cheap drones (at scale); like the Ukrainians are doing to counteract the Russian’s.
If the Russians can spend the West into oblivion on defense, we have more money and access to cheaper raw materials than the Russian’s do, so we need to bankrupt them first.
I’m sure my solution sounds more like HL Mencken’s quote:
Complex problems have simple, easy to understand, wrong answers!”..:)
Thank you. Good to know. At least they’re taking this seriously, and not wasting time; very unusual for them.
After watching this war unfold over the course of the last three years; glacial pace at best, the European’s are finally getting their act together. I’m starting to have hope.
NATO should respond by sending Ukraine special weapons. For each russian intrusion over NATO borders, Ukraine gets long distance missiles to be used at military targets inside russia. For instance the Swedish-Germany missile Taurus. A small intrusion 10 missiles. A big one like the last one, 100 missiles. It would be nice if Ukraine could use a few of them against the GPS jamming systems in Köningsberg (Kaliningrad).
Amazing what a little spinal insertion procedure from Czechia and Sweden can do to make a statement and get the remainder of Europe on side, albeit slowly in the case of UK and France. The Polish reaction to the US lack of reaction is brilliant, and the realization they need Ukrainian help is even better.
Agree, something more kinetic needs to be done. Taurus and SCALP missiles would be a start. More Patriot batteries, and where are those ERAMS? Feels like we are waiting for Godot! I also
Think aggressively shutting down the “shadow fleet” in the Baltic would be a good step!
Agree, the necessity of Europe-UK taking an offensive action in response to Poland is well beyond the critical phase. Kinetic responses at Russia's drone factories are an appropriate response: attack us with drones, we take away your drone capacity.
Establishing a no-fly zone over Ukraine is also an acceptable response. The notion that the Eu's cost to defend against low-cost drones is somehow asymmetric favoring Putin, is not an adequate understanding of the challenge. The EU should make it symmetrical by taking out Russia's drone factories, or energy infrastructure equal to twice the cost of the EU response.
The EU is, and has been, at war. Tiptoeing is not an option.
Dunno, the fact that NATO has not deployed the current state of the art anti-drone equipment and doctrine in Poland at scale seems completely understandable.
1. This is a rapidly evolving form of warfare. What is currently effective could be obsolete in 6 months.Remember EW was king,then came fiber optic cables.
2. This stuff belongs in Ukraine, where it's most needed.For ecample, Germany's latest gun system will do far more good in Ukraine than on the Polish border, and it will get an essential operational test there.
Putin is unlikely to scale into Europe. He needs his drones in Ukraine.
It would be very unfortunate if resouces needed in Ukraine were diverted to the Polish border. That may even be one of Putin's objectives.
I think Europe must wait offending Hippo Don in any way until after all the Erams are delivered. He might kill the deal out of spite, legal fine print be damned.
That doesn't mean Europe can't respond to Russia's drone attack. A couple more pledges of sizable military and monetary support in the next few days will do the trick. Like I said yesterday - Merz should promise delivery of two dozen Tauri missiles, two for each drone Putin sent to Poland.
Extending the proxy war in Ukraine is response enough.
After the Erams are delivered, Europe can steadily add to the chorus that Hippo Don is in fact, a coward...
Britain and France can send long range missiles to Ukraine as a response. (I pick this over any other response)
France can directly assist Ukraine bomb the facility that manufactured the drones. Create a command HQ, pool European resources and attack the facility and destroy it to the ground.
Deploy air defense systems with orders to directly engage Russian drones/missiles in Ukrainian airspace (western Ukraine)
Announce the creation of no fly zone inside western Ukraine and protect it.
Or give Ukraine the missiles to destroy the Black Sea Fleet in full. (this will be too much for Europe to stomach). The rest they can actually do. Now they have been given the license to go. They just need to find the spine.
Thomas Röwekamp, Chairman of the Bundestag’s Defense Committee, has called for transferring long-range missiles to Ukraine, striking Russian drone production sites, and authorizing NATO to shoot down drones inside Ukrainian airspace. These are the very three measures The Concis recommended yesterday after Russian drones entered Poland.
Did you see this this morning, Shankar? (thanks for this excellent report).
“In Russia's Leningrad region, unidentified drones struck the oil port of Primorsk, igniting one of the ships, says the governor of the Leningrad region, Alexander Drozdenko.”
No. I did not dig into it. Thanks. Will do.
Here's the source Shankar
https://newsukraine.rbc.ua/news/russian-ship-goes-up-in-flames-after-drone-1757651159.html
I think this wasn't a probe but actually a provocation to get NATO to overreact so that Putin had cover to mobilize Moscow and St Petersburg (defend the fatherland!). With the masterfully bland statement from NATO and the quite shuffling of posture, NATO hasn't provided Russia with a cover to expand mobilization.
Putin gambled and I think lost. Now more AWE&Cs are flying closer to the Ukrainian border, more intelligence sharing (read AWE&C track sharing) with Ukraine and more AD/air patrols in Poland.
Agree, this attack has so many layers to it. My recommendation would be for Europe to deliver the long range missiles to Ukraine and give them go at it signal.
Also the new Polish President went all in on Trump, only for Trump to cast aside Poland. I know he said he would be doing more foreign policy work but I think his wings will have now have been clipped.
The United States is a collective, useless and vapid, pandering idiot. I have been saying that for months although some of the evidence has perhaps indicated that I was incorrect. But I don’t think so.
In my mind it’s useless to try to define the reasons WHY Trump is acting the way he is. Kompromat? I don’t care, because Biden pulled the same garbage. Peace initiative? Even less so because it’s not true. Power monger? Dangerous, because at this moment, few in the Trump cabinet have sufficient intellectual capacity to pull it off.
Europe needs to get this needle out of its arm and move forward. We live in desperate times. Pandering to the US will keep us there.
Great analysis Shankar, it sounds like the West needs to manufacture their version of cheap drones (at scale); like the Ukrainians are doing to counteract the Russian’s.
If the Russians can spend the West into oblivion on defense, we have more money and access to cheaper raw materials than the Russian’s do, so we need to bankrupt them first.
I’m sure my solution sounds more like HL Mencken’s quote:
Complex problems have simple, easy to understand, wrong answers!”..:)
The Uk has just invested in this Robert Jaffee - Starmer announced a £2.7 Trillion defence review earlier this year - yesterday:
UK to mass produce drones to 'fight Russian aggression' after incursion in Poland's airspace sparks fears for NATO
https://www.lbc.co.uk/article/uk-mass-produce-drones-russian-aggression-5HjdCrs_2/
Thank you. Good to know. At least they’re taking this seriously, and not wasting time; very unusual for them.
After watching this war unfold over the course of the last three years; glacial pace at best, the European’s are finally getting their act together. I’m starting to have hope.
“Slava Ukraini” 🇺🇦
Prince Harry and Yvette Cooper, the newly appointed Foreign Secretary are in Ukraine today - expect an announcement soon :o)
NATO should respond by sending Ukraine special weapons. For each russian intrusion over NATO borders, Ukraine gets long distance missiles to be used at military targets inside russia. For instance the Swedish-Germany missile Taurus. A small intrusion 10 missiles. A big one like the last one, 100 missiles. It would be nice if Ukraine could use a few of them against the GPS jamming systems in Köningsberg (Kaliningrad).
Amazing what a little spinal insertion procedure from Czechia and Sweden can do to make a statement and get the remainder of Europe on side, albeit slowly in the case of UK and France. The Polish reaction to the US lack of reaction is brilliant, and the realization they need Ukrainian help is even better.
Agree, something more kinetic needs to be done. Taurus and SCALP missiles would be a start. More Patriot batteries, and where are those ERAMS? Feels like we are waiting for Godot! I also
Think aggressively shutting down the “shadow fleet” in the Baltic would be a good step!
Trump is Putin's puppet, so there is nothing to be gained by relying on Trump to respond.
Europe must defend itself, irrespective of Trump's failures.
Poland and other NATO countries must close their airspace to Russia, and co-operate with Ukraine to destroy Russian objects flying over Ukraine.
If it's Russian and in Ukranian airspace it threatens all of Europe and must be destroyed.
Every other week we read how Europe is taking the offensive for its own protection!
Then, we read that it’s Putin who takes the offensive (against Poland)!
This “cat & mouse” game works for Putin - stalling for time!
What’s up with Starmer and Macron! They are surely not Churchill and DeGaul!
Agree, the necessity of Europe-UK taking an offensive action in response to Poland is well beyond the critical phase. Kinetic responses at Russia's drone factories are an appropriate response: attack us with drones, we take away your drone capacity.
Establishing a no-fly zone over Ukraine is also an acceptable response. The notion that the Eu's cost to defend against low-cost drones is somehow asymmetric favoring Putin, is not an adequate understanding of the challenge. The EU should make it symmetrical by taking out Russia's drone factories, or energy infrastructure equal to twice the cost of the EU response.
The EU is, and has been, at war. Tiptoeing is not an option.
Slava Ukraini!
it is about time europe has stopped thumbing its prostate, they have dilly dallied for twelve years, they cannot keep going on as they were
Dunno, the fact that NATO has not deployed the current state of the art anti-drone equipment and doctrine in Poland at scale seems completely understandable.
1. This is a rapidly evolving form of warfare. What is currently effective could be obsolete in 6 months.Remember EW was king,then came fiber optic cables.
2. This stuff belongs in Ukraine, where it's most needed.For ecample, Germany's latest gun system will do far more good in Ukraine than on the Polish border, and it will get an essential operational test there.
Putin is unlikely to scale into Europe. He needs his drones in Ukraine.
It would be very unfortunate if resouces needed in Ukraine were diverted to the Polish border. That may even be one of Putin's objectives.
I think Europe must wait offending Hippo Don in any way until after all the Erams are delivered. He might kill the deal out of spite, legal fine print be damned.
That doesn't mean Europe can't respond to Russia's drone attack. A couple more pledges of sizable military and monetary support in the next few days will do the trick. Like I said yesterday - Merz should promise delivery of two dozen Tauri missiles, two for each drone Putin sent to Poland.
Extending the proxy war in Ukraine is response enough.
After the Erams are delivered, Europe can steadily add to the chorus that Hippo Don is in fact, a coward...
Anything that exposes Trump’s Putin bias and pushes him to the sidelines is positive.
European nations must tolerate the "artist of (failure) deals" until our weapons industries make usa supplies redundant.
In practical terms, what “kinetic” steps can Europe take?
Britain and France can send long range missiles to Ukraine as a response. (I pick this over any other response)
France can directly assist Ukraine bomb the facility that manufactured the drones. Create a command HQ, pool European resources and attack the facility and destroy it to the ground.
Deploy air defense systems with orders to directly engage Russian drones/missiles in Ukrainian airspace (western Ukraine)
Announce the creation of no fly zone inside western Ukraine and protect it.
Or give Ukraine the missiles to destroy the Black Sea Fleet in full. (this will be too much for Europe to stomach). The rest they can actually do. Now they have been given the license to go. They just need to find the spine.