Ukraine Shreds Putin's Winter Offensive Dreams

Putin's drone attack on Poland backfires as Sweden doubles Ukraine aid and Europe considers going it alone

For what it's worth, Putin did one thing really well. He forced the western world to look hundreds of miles away from Pokrovsk and not talk about the growing fuel shortages inside Russia. Several military bloggers said that Putin has given the Stalinesque, sacrifice any amount of human life, but do not retreat order to his commanders and they are doing as much as they possibly can, because life in dictatorship is cheaper than a barrel of crude oil.

After the Putin-Trump summit in Alaska, Ukrainian forces were on the march in the Pokrovsk sector, clearing the Dobropillya breach to the north of Pokrovsk and pushing the Russian forces back on the right and left flanks trying to circle Pokrovsk. Putin may have ordered no retreat, but he had also ordered the commanders to not expend more than 1,200 troops per day in order to build some reserves for a wave later this year.

You can't expend the reserves. You can't retreat. What are you supposed to do then? Well, you start moving troops from other fronts.

The troop movements tell their own story of Russian desperation. Commanders have begun stripping forces from other sectors to reinforce Pokrovsk—a sector already consuming nearly 20% of Russia's entire occupation force. That such a massive concentration of troops failed to hold the line speaks to the fundamental erosion of Russian military effectiveness.

Moscow now fights on two impossible fronts simultaneously: maintaining the Dobropillya breach as an active frontline while preventing further Ukrainian penetration in the Pokrovsk right flank. It's a classic strategic trap—defending everywhere means defending nowhere effectively.

While Deepstate's maps haven't yet reflected the latest shifts, Russian forces have managed to eject Ukrainian troops from two key positions (marked in red squares in the accompanying image). But this tactical success comes at a strategic cost that may prove unsustainable.

The tactical picture reveals Ukraine's larger strategy: they're methodically strangling the entry point of the Dobropillya breach. What emerges is a grotesque cycle—Ukraine clears Russian positions, Russia refills them with fresh troops, repeat. This isn't tactics; it's industrial-scale human sacrifice. The breach has become an hourly suicide mission, the inevitable result when military strategy serves a dictator's ego rather than strategic logic.

Despite tactical losses in the right flank, the initiative belongs to Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi. His strategy transforms Russian desperation into Ukrainian opportunity across the broader theater. The pending arrival of ERAMs, missiles that can be launched from the F16s, will be decisive, potentially tipping the firepower balance definitively in Ukraine's favor within this crucial pocket.

Putin and his minions may have arranged a vodka party in the Kremlin after Europe messed up a bit in its initial reaction to the Russian drone incursion into Poland, and poured another round after the American Nobel Peace Prize Committee of one wondered aloud if the Russian drone attack was a mistake. The committee has to find ways to cover for Putin, otherwise they lose their relevance.

But sadly for them, Sweden spoiled the party. Somewhere in the middle of all this, they announced that they will send $7.5 billion in military aid to Ukraine in 2026 and 2027. That's more than $3.5 billion a year in military aid.

Sweden's defense minister announced that they will deliver 18 Archer artillery systems and ammunition, long-range drones, and a range of naval equipment, such as coastal radar systems, cable ferries equipped with grenade launchers, diving chambers, and mobile cranes. He then added that he's not going to give all the details and there are systems that Russians are better off realizing when they see them on the field.

This is huge mainly because since the start of the war, over the last three years Sweden has delivered military aid worth $6.7 billion. Sweden has now doubled military aid to Ukraine. If Putin, as noted by the ISW, wanted to use the attack on Poland to deter Europe from sending more aid to Ukraine, then Sweden has technically said, yes Putin, we hear you. We will double our aid.

These little moves matter.

They matter a whole freaking lot.

Though I'm still in fairly disappointed mode with the way France and the United Kingdom reacted to Putin's attack on Poland, I have to admit they are slowly moving in the right direction. French President Emmanuel Macron finally called the drone attack for what it exactly is: "We will not yield to Russia's growing intimidation." He also ordered three Rafale fighter jets to patrol Polish airspace and the eastern flank. Germany added four Eurofighters to the region.

Overall, France and Germany have beefed up patrols in Polish airspace. But this was more of a knee-jerk reaction and not a long-term solution. You simply cannot order fighter jets and Patriot missiles to bring down $100,000 drones. Putin tested NATO's ability to protect its own borders and got his answer: they are practically defenseless against cheap asymmetric warfare.

It was just 19 drones. Putin has been launching 500-plus waves of drones into Ukraine almost every other day. If he had launched a few hundred drones at NATO airbases sitting closer to the Polish border, the results would have etched themselves into headlines worldwide.

As usual, it was Ukraine that came to Europe's rescue. President Zelensky promised to train Polish soldiers in anti-drone warfare, which Poland accepted. He also urged Europe to co-produce drone interceptors, warning that missiles worth millions can't keep shooting down drones costing only tens of thousands. "We must act fast, without bureaucracy," he said.

And the Nobel Peace Prize committee of one suffered major embarrassment yesterday as they tried to defend Putin by suggesting the drone attack may have been a mistake. Poland's Prime Minister Donald Tusk responded: "We would also wish that the drone attack on Poland was a mistake. But it wasn't. And we know it."

Poland's Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski chimed in: "No, that wasn't a mistake." He was also on Fox News taking a direct swipe at the Putin-Trump meeting in Alaska, saying "We were supposed to have sanctions but we got Alaska."

Ouch! That's going to sting, Don.

For too long Donald Trump has tried to play bothsideism. But in reality it was more Putinsideism than Europe's. Things changed a little after July, but after the Alaska meeting, Trump has been course-correcting in the other direction while also playing along with Europe on weapons supply.

GOP Senator Thom Tillis made a sharp comment yesterday when he said the United States is getting played like a piano.

Even more ouch! The embarrassment is starting to pile up.

It matters because the optics are already moving in the wrong direction for Donald Trump. As you just saw, Poland is not going to sit still and take this in. They are ready to push back against Trump and they are already pushing back. With roughly 8.2 million Polish Americans watching, Poland is not Ukraine. And Ukraine is not Poland—this pushback will resonate domestically.

All of which raises the critical question: What is Europe doing?

It's early and I have to walk you through my assumptions if I were to answer this question. It started off on a bad note, as if Europe was trying to walk away from the responsibility to respond. That was the first 6 hours. But by the end of the day, Germany and Czech Republic started demanding accountability and refused to accept denial. After that, things started moving in the right direction.

The decision to send fighter jets to Poland was a breadcrumb—a decision to keep the blowback from constituents from escalating. Trump tried to pat away the problem and Poland pushed back with a top-down and direct approach. Now that leaves Europe to find a way to respond because it's already clear Trump is not going to move. He might be forced if Europe does start taking forward steps on its own.

This is something British Prime Minister Keir Starmer and French President Emmanuel Macron have to take full ownership of. Defensive moves will not be enough. The response must be kinetic. Trump has failed. He will most likely pay a domestic political price for this if he extends this failure. He can talk in circles, but the optics of this will directly land on the strongman image he is trying to build. With Newsom breathing down his neck, expect some relentless attacks from him calling Donald Trump a massive failure.

• I doubt Newsom will zero in on the Putin's buddy Trump angle.

• He will hammer Trump as a failure

• It will land.

• It will get stuck.

Instead of trying to rescue Trump, Europe should treat this as liberation from American indecision. Defensive moves are fine, but that has to become the platform from which to jump into independent action. It cannot become the platform to rest and wait for Washington to find its spine.

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