“They need to find the biggest hammer available or build a brand new one and drop it on Orban and Fico's daily Russian buys.”
Long overdue.
Orban and Fico are the nails on the highway that flatten the tires of progress. They are obscene thorns, shutting down the level of progress Europe could be bringing to the crisis. Why does Europe perpetually postpone taking the appropriate action to neutralize the pro-Putin influence they inflict on the rest of the continent ?
How on earth does a man who unleashes the military on his own people, threatens countries with invasion, goads a mob into attacking democracy, attacks Iran with bunker busters, and sinks a boat full of potentially innocent Venezuelan civilians think that he might be in line for a Nobel Peace Prize?
He is truly deluded, bonkers, barmy, insane (and, what’s more, an idiot).
Very good analysis. Europe should absolutely be seeking to increase it's energy independence, and also it's military independence from US.
To be clear, the energy independence requires a large investment in nuclear power as well as batteries and grid improvements to support solar / wind. LNG delivered by ship from Qatar / US / Norway is at least twice as expensive as natural gas delivered by pipeline. That makes natural gas use as a chemical feedstock for industry prohibitively expensive compared to competitors in US and China who can get pipeline gas. For power generation, it doesn't matter so much if LNG is more expensive if you are limiting it's use to supporting the grid when solar / wind isn't producing. But in any case, Europe needs to bite the bullet and accept that it needs massive short-term investment in energy infrastructure to be able to have long-term energy security at a reasonable price.
With regards to military, US suppliers are, I am sure, drooling over NATO's / Europe's increase in military spending. Europe, however, should be wise to look at the developments in Ukraine to realise that mass purchases of US hardware is not the way forward. Cherry-pick the best of US hardware to buy (eg Patriot missile defence), and otherwise set up local European manufacturing of the cheaper weaponry that has been far more effective in Ukraine, particularly drone warfare. If necessary, license the technology from Ukrainian manufacturers who are now the foremost experts in what really works on the modern battlefield, and build them in Europe.
I think Ursula von der Leyen may be listening. From a transcript of her latest State of the EU address:
“We are particularly looking at phasing out Russian fossil fuels faster, the shadow fleet and third countries.”
There was a lot to like in that speech. Maybe the recent airplane incident she experienced, with Russia messing with the GPS has crystallized her thought process.
"What should Europe and Ukraine do under these conditions?
They need to close a $10 billion purchase of American weapons, write the contracts and clauses perfectly well, get the weapons and let Ukraine finish the job they started."
My understanding is that countries like Italy are obtaining oil from third parties like Turkey. So I suspect that Europe is providing much more cash to Russia than direct purchases indicate.
Putin personally owns all of Russia's oil. Not Russia, but Putin. Its his wealth. In the western hemisphere Ametican oil interests control even Canada's oil and that's why Republicans have a stranglehold on Alberta. Alberta's premier is Republican in her politics.
I’m looking forward to reading your assessment after Russia launched some drones into Poland last night and Poland then invoked article 4 of the NATO agreement.
I would add a 4th faction in the U.S., the isolationists. These people believe that the U.S. should withdraw from world affairs.
It's a naïve view because it doesn't factor in the financial implications to the US. Yet, many argue that the US should not be giving the Ukraine billions of dollars, not realizing that all the manufacturing is being done in the U.S., so they're actually calling for cuts to funding and jobs in their own country.
1 bill for weapons order has been placed. 1 more billion order is about to close or may be closed already. 5 patriots order has also been accepted. The patriot order is outside the Purl scheme. That is the one Merz negotiated directly with Trump. So as of now 8 billion under Purl is pending.
Thank you Shankar. You mentioned previously that the big US arms manufacturers will align with the deal; ditto Marco Rubio, also on side; wherein then lies the holdup? Is Trump likely to dither (maybe) or is the delay of European origin?
Delay is more due to planning. These things do take time. Ukr and nato allies and general Alexus grenkywich are working on it. It does go back and forth as political considerations and Pentagon influences must be dealt with. Then Europe has not yet pulled the rest of the 8 billion. 3b for patriots and 2 for Purl is what they have done.
The result mentioned was targeting Hungary & Slovakia , alter the unanimity requirement and demonstrate that those 2 countries can't be beholden to Putin (Trojan horses) and be hamstringing the large majority in EU
“They need to find the biggest hammer available or build a brand new one and drop it on Orban and Fico's daily Russian buys.”
Long overdue.
Orban and Fico are the nails on the highway that flatten the tires of progress. They are obscene thorns, shutting down the level of progress Europe could be bringing to the crisis. Why does Europe perpetually postpone taking the appropriate action to neutralize the pro-Putin influence they inflict on the rest of the continent ?
How on earth does a man who unleashes the military on his own people, threatens countries with invasion, goads a mob into attacking democracy, attacks Iran with bunker busters, and sinks a boat full of potentially innocent Venezuelan civilians think that he might be in line for a Nobel Peace Prize?
He is truly deluded, bonkers, barmy, insane (and, what’s more, an idiot).
Trump is compromised because of KGB / Epstein Kompromat and mafia deals with Putin. USA / Trump is now the enemy within
Surely the actual political damage potential of any Epstein-related kompromat must be quite diminished by now.
Trump might however be intellectually incapable of adjusting his stance accordingly.
Very good analysis. Europe should absolutely be seeking to increase it's energy independence, and also it's military independence from US.
To be clear, the energy independence requires a large investment in nuclear power as well as batteries and grid improvements to support solar / wind. LNG delivered by ship from Qatar / US / Norway is at least twice as expensive as natural gas delivered by pipeline. That makes natural gas use as a chemical feedstock for industry prohibitively expensive compared to competitors in US and China who can get pipeline gas. For power generation, it doesn't matter so much if LNG is more expensive if you are limiting it's use to supporting the grid when solar / wind isn't producing. But in any case, Europe needs to bite the bullet and accept that it needs massive short-term investment in energy infrastructure to be able to have long-term energy security at a reasonable price.
With regards to military, US suppliers are, I am sure, drooling over NATO's / Europe's increase in military spending. Europe, however, should be wise to look at the developments in Ukraine to realise that mass purchases of US hardware is not the way forward. Cherry-pick the best of US hardware to buy (eg Patriot missile defence), and otherwise set up local European manufacturing of the cheaper weaponry that has been far more effective in Ukraine, particularly drone warfare. If necessary, license the technology from Ukrainian manufacturers who are now the foremost experts in what really works on the modern battlefield, and build them in Europe.
I hope the EU jumps on it. Why not? Five percent is five percent. It calls Trump’s bluff. It’s genius in the face of imbecility.
Sounds great but does anyone listen to you, Shankar?
I would rather not answer it.
I think Ursula von der Leyen may be listening. From a transcript of her latest State of the EU address:
“We are particularly looking at phasing out Russian fossil fuels faster, the shadow fleet and third countries.”
There was a lot to like in that speech. Maybe the recent airplane incident she experienced, with Russia messing with the GPS has crystallized her thought process.
heather cox richardson cross posted yesterdays blog
“They need to find the biggest hammer available or build a brand new one and drop it on Orban and Fico's daily Russian buys.”
Good advice!
Maybe something like the Creusot steam hammer https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Creusot_steam_hammer ?
Thank you Shankar,
"What should Europe and Ukraine do under these conditions?
They need to close a $10 billion purchase of American weapons, write the contracts and clauses perfectly well, get the weapons and let Ukraine finish the job they started."
My understanding is that countries like Italy are obtaining oil from third parties like Turkey. So I suspect that Europe is providing much more cash to Russia than direct purchases indicate.
Yes. Turkey accounts for 26 percent of refined products from Russia.
But the direct purchases make up the cash flow for oil numbers that the Trump Administration is using as an excuse for not sanctioning Russia?
Excuse.
Putin personally owns all of Russia's oil. Not Russia, but Putin. Its his wealth. In the western hemisphere Ametican oil interests control even Canada's oil and that's why Republicans have a stranglehold on Alberta. Alberta's premier is Republican in her politics.
Great analysis!
I’m looking forward to reading your assessment after Russia launched some drones into Poland last night and Poland then invoked article 4 of the NATO agreement.
I would add a 4th faction in the U.S., the isolationists. These people believe that the U.S. should withdraw from world affairs.
It's a naïve view because it doesn't factor in the financial implications to the US. Yet, many argue that the US should not be giving the Ukraine billions of dollars, not realizing that all the manufacturing is being done in the U.S., so they're actually calling for cuts to funding and jobs in their own country.
I thought the $10 billion US weapons deal was already locked and loaded! Hadn’t Merz already secured the purchase?
1 bill for weapons order has been placed. 1 more billion order is about to close or may be closed already. 5 patriots order has also been accepted. The patriot order is outside the Purl scheme. That is the one Merz negotiated directly with Trump. So as of now 8 billion under Purl is pending.
Thank you Shankar. You mentioned previously that the big US arms manufacturers will align with the deal; ditto Marco Rubio, also on side; wherein then lies the holdup? Is Trump likely to dither (maybe) or is the delay of European origin?
Delay is more due to planning. These things do take time. Ukr and nato allies and general Alexus grenkywich are working on it. It does go back and forth as political considerations and Pentagon influences must be dealt with. Then Europe has not yet pulled the rest of the 8 billion. 3b for patriots and 2 for Purl is what they have done.
too many different eu countrys are buying russian gas to get a result
The result mentioned was targeting Hungary & Slovakia , alter the unanimity requirement and demonstrate that those 2 countries can't be beholden to Putin (Trojan horses) and be hamstringing the large majority in EU