Trump's Russian Oil Ultimatum: Europe's Chance to Turn Poison into Power

Trump's Russia Scam Just Gave Europe the Perfect Excuse to Crush Putin's European Allies

Financial Times reported yesterday that the 'two weeks to sanction Russia' Trump administration has told Europe that they need to stop buying Russian oil if they want the United States to sanction Putin.

For some really odd reason the administration seems to be very sensitive over how its response to Putin is being received around the world. This defensive posturing reveals an administration caught between conflicting pressures - domestic expectations for tough action against Moscow, international allies demanding leadership, and whatever behind-the-scenes calculations are driving their hesitant approach to meaningful sanctions.

This is the second time they are trying to turn the table on Europe, and the pattern is becoming unmistakable. The "two weeks" promise itself has become a running joke in diplomatic circles, a temporal placeholder that allows the administration to appear decisive while actually avoiding decision-making.

When EU leaders led by Macron raised the heat over sanctions after Putin bailed out of Trump's push to meet with Zelensky, the administration went to great lengths to push a narrative that it is Europe that is obstructing a peace agreement. They deployed surrogates across cable news networks, leaked selective briefings to friendly outlets, and even had administration officials privately brief foreign journalists about European "intransigence."

It clearly didn't stick. European capitals saw through the deflection. Now they have unfurled this nonsense about European oil purchases - a demand that sounds tough but is actually designed as an escape hatch. It clearly looks like a stalling tactic with the side-benefit of pinning the blame on Europe, allowing Trump to later claim that his hands were tied by European stubbornness rather than his own reluctance to confront Putin meaningfully.

China is the largest buyer of Russian crude oil accounting for 47% of Russia's crude exports, next is India at 38%, Turkey takes another 6%.

A total of 47+38+6 = 91%.

Whatever Europe gets, which is mostly going into Putin's buddies Orban and Fico's coffers, is going to be within that remaining 9%.

Maybe 5%.

Let that sink in for a moment - we're talking about stopping the smallest slice of Russian oil revenue while leaving the massive flows to Beijing, India and Turkey completely untouched.

So, the genius Trump administration will not sanction 95% of Russian crude oil sales, because Putin's buddies in Europe are still buying 5%.

The mathematical absurdity is staggering. This narrative spin almost feels like it sprung out of the KGB's playbook - create a false equivalence, muddy the waters, and ensure that the most impactful action never gets taken. No, I don't think KGB gave the idea to MAGA GOP, it is a propaganda party in its own right, so similarities will be there. Both understand that the most effective lies contain just enough truth to sound reasonable.

Nevertheless, there is no reason whatfreakingever for Europe to balk at this suggestion. In fact, Europe should embrace this propaganda push wholeheartedly and turn it into their own strategic advantage.

They need to find the biggest hammer available or build a brand new one and drop it on Orban and Fico's daily Russian buys. This isn't just about oil revenues - it's about finally confronting the Putin enablers who have been operating within EU borders with impunity. Drop the hammer, sanction both Orban and Fico in one breath and put the blame squarely on the Trump administration's demands. "We're simply following Washington's leadership," European officials can say with straight faces while internally celebrating the political cover.

Then call Zelensky and Budanov and tell them to pay homage to any pipeline that carries Russian oil to European destinations.

But there is one problem though, before they can do this, they need to take a cold hearted look at the LNG exports from Russia that still comes into Europe.

• The EU imported €4.48 billion worth of Russian LNG in the first half of 2025.

• In H1-2025 Europe consumed 92 bcm of LNG.

• That puts Russian contribution at around 15 bcm - roughly 16% of total consumption.

• To put this in perspective, that's €4.48 billion flowing directly into Putin's war chest in just six months. Annualized, we're looking at nearly €9 billion per year that European consumers are contributing to fund the very conflict that's destabilizing their continent.

Not a molecule more should be where Europe must be. The fact that they weren't is exactly why Orban and Fico keep pressing in this direction and it is also why the Trump admin is now using this to escape Russia sanctions while making Europe look like hypocrites. Every cubic meter of Russian gas that flows into European terminals undermines the moral authority needed to demand American leadership on sanctions.

Driving down the LNG imports closer to zero is a difficult job, not an impossible task. The infrastructure exists, alternative suppliers are available, and the financial mechanisms are in place. What's been missing is the political will and coordinated execution.

Germans did it in 2022. They know how to reduce that dependency. Within months of Russia's full-scale invasion, Germany went from receiving 55% of its natural gas from Russia to virtually zero by year's end. They expedited LNG terminal construction, secured alternative suppliers from Norway, Qatar, and the United States, and implemented emergency conservation measures that actually worked. The industrial sector adapted, consumers adjusted, and the economy didn't collapse - it adapted and emerged more resilient.

The German success story wasn't just about energy security; it was about political leadership during crisis.

Allow Merz to take full charge of doing that for entire Europe. Give him the mandate, the resources, and the political cover to implement a continent-wide version of Germany's 2022 playbook. Deliver it and announce from Brussels that Europe has fully stopped all commodities sales flows to invaders' oil fields and gas trades and ask the Trump admin to follow through.

Trump will most likely say he will decide in two weeks, who gives.

Because by then the primary cash connection between Orban-Putin-Fico would have been crushed. Europe would be free of Russian hydrocarbons. Russian oil and gas revenue would have shrunk further down from where it is today.

What is not to like?

This really is one of those rare occasions when a problem that is forced is actually a good one for the long-term future. Done right it will strengthen Europe, weaken Putin's buddies inside Europe and it will also politically benefit key European leaders.

The energy independence that results will be permanent, the economic diversification will create new opportunities, and the geopolitical leverage will shift decisively toward European capitals. Just make sure that you market the effort as hard as you possibly can - this isn't just about sanctions, it's about European sovereignty and strategic autonomy in the 21st century.

What does the Trump admin really want?

They themselves do not have a clue. There are actually three factions, each pulling policy in different directions, creating the incoherent mess we're witnessing.

Faction One: The Silicon Valley Putin Caucus

The pro-Putin, anti-EU GOP billionaires do not want Putin to lose. This isn't about ideology - it's about business models and regulatory environments. They hate the EU because Brussels consistently puts people before tech companies' profit margins. European data protection laws, antitrust enforcement, and digital services regulations represent an existential threat to their surveillance capitalism model. A strong, unified Europe means more GDPR-style regulations, more fines for algorithmic manipulation, and more constraints on their ability to extract value from user data.

This group wants Putin to win not because they love authoritarianism, but because his success would discredit the regulatory approaches they despise.

Faction Two: The Military-Industrial Establishment

The U.S. defense industrial complex is fully pro-Europe, pro-western world. They do not see Putin as an ally - they see him as the worst thing that ever happened to their business model. They are worried that if he keeps winning, they will lose their largest and wealthiest client base. European defense spending has skyrocketed since 2022, NATO commitments are now being made, and countries that hadn't bought American weapons in decades are suddenly placing massive orders.

This bloc wants Europe to win fair and square.

Faction Three: The Nobel Committee of One

The third faction has only one person. That person is Donald Trump.

He does not care about Europe. He does not care about Putin. He wants the Nobel Peace Prize, and everything else is subordinate to that singular obsession. Mind you, his political interest simply seeks a condition for a draw. He can't let Europe lose completely because that would make him look weak and ineffective. He can't afford Putin to lose decisively either because then he couldn't claim credit for "making the deal" that ended the war.

Trump's ideal scenario is a frozen conflict that he can claim to have "solved" through his superior negotiating skills. He wants to be the man who brought both sides to the table, forced compromises, and achieved "peace in our time." The actual terms matter less than the optics of being the dealmaker who ended Europe's biggest war since 1945.

And voila, you get the nonsense you are witnessing today. An administration that is all over the place, sending mixed signals because it literally doesn't know what it wants beyond avoiding any outcome that makes Trump look bad or costs him his prize.

What should Europe and Ukraine do under these conditions?

They need to close a $10 billion purchase of American weapons, write the contracts and clauses perfectly well, get the weapons and let Ukraine finish the job they started.

The timing is crucial. Faction Two - the defense establishment - has real influence in Congress and within the Pentagon. They want those sales to go through because it validates their entire strategic framework. Lock in the contracts now, while the defense lobby is pushing for European victory, before Trump's Nobel Prize fantasies or the tech billionaires' Putin sympathies can interfere.

Write the clauses to ensure delivery timelines that can't be easily reversed by future political winds. Include penalty provisions that make cancellation expensive. Most importantly, structure the payments to create stakeholders within the American system who have financial incentives to see the weapons delivered and Ukraine victorious.

The $10 billion isn't just about weapons - it's about buying American institutional support for Ukrainian victory while that support is still available and motivated by self-interest rather than altruism.

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