Never underestimate Ukraine and current administration! Do underestimate russia ( r , not R, they are dangerous killers with disregard of humans lives).
Once again: No matter what Trump and Putin come up with, it is not binding on Ukraine. Let Trump bloviate and Putin prevaricate all they want. Zelenskyy and his advisors will decide what is best for their country. Europe needs to continue...or better yet, increase...their support. Ukraine is slowly gaining the upper hand, despite what the MSM likes to "clickbait" their doomsday prognostications.
Trump is still in La La land. He’s convinced that he and he alone can convince warring parties to stop. It’s all a big fiction that plays over and over in his brain. It keeps him going. Without the stuck needle on the platinum record he’s a nobody and he knows that , so he lets it be stuck there to play the “I am the greatest” message over and over
Yea. I do think it will be down to the pro-nat sec GOP senators + defense lobby to push this admin in the right direction. They have done some decent work since April 20th. Lets see.
I think Trump has gained even more confidence in personal negotiations after meeting with Syrian ex-Alqaida leader and impressing the man about his greatness. LOL. Yes, the Russian hawks in the Senate should have a good two minute conversation with Trump - beyond that his attention span limitation makes him forget all the advice and go off script
In fact Trump conceded that he was lifting the sanctions upon the wishes of a friend he can’t say no to. They have become ardent mutual admirers. Trump thinks here’s a kid king who has the power to change the Middle East whereas his actions can get blocked by a district judge - and wishes to be an MBS.
This isn't so much a comment as a combination of a question and preposterous proposal!
The Question: Do you have any insights why Ukraine has not tried harder to destroy the Kerch Bridge? Is this an issue of capability, or is it perhaps some back-channel deal, whereby Russia has warned Ukraine that if the bridge goes, then it will do something even more extreme than it has so far...
The Preposterous Proposal: We all know Trump likes a deal, so I am a little surprised that Zelensky hasn't yet offered the US a 500 year lease over the currently Russian leased part of the port of Sevastopol from which it could probably (with an appropriate fleet) control the whole of the Black Sea. Conditional, of course, on the US giving Ukraine the military assistance to get the Crimea back in the first place....
Regarding the first question, Ukraine needs to get closer to the bridge through air to take them out. That means risking the F16s in a section that has the highest level of air defense protection. US has also not given suffiicient ATACMS to take out the bridge. Taurus is the only weapon that is ideal for this job. Rest you need volume. So why risk the f16s and high volume of weapons? The trade off is still not worth it.
According to a lot of military analysts prior to March/April 2022 Russia soldiers literally stood 10ft tall in some peoples minds. Well that was wrong Ukrainians stood tall and turned the so called Russian giants into military zombies whose idea of offensive warfare was to park on the nearest highway or dig trenches in the nearest radioactive forest. The tragedy is the Russian people still do not know just how bad a leader Putin is and thats partly down to the USA, France, Germany and the UK being scared to finish him off. The cost of which is being borne in Ukrainian blood.
OMG, Shankar--You're trying to convince Trump of something that differs from his chipped in stone opinions by stating the facts?? Good luck with that, my brother.
Excellent analysis Shankar. And as you know by now, I’m very skeptical that anything positive will come from this meeting, other than more lies, embellishments and propaganda as to the progress Trump is making on a deal.
And I guarantee that after the meeting, Trump will announce a major breakthrough, only the have one of Putin’s lapdogs claim otherwise in a tweet, or formal Russian statement.
No movement tmrw is a neutral outcome. Any movement away from Putin is a good outcome. Lets see. I dont think we sill see the results off the bat, but by Friday next week we will know the direction.
“Putin the Great—has a nice ring to it, doesn’t it?”
Maybe he’ll eventually be remembered as: Putin the Great Fool.
But we don’t know yet how things will ultimately play out. Western actions are deeply disappointing; the West is taking on way too much risk by failing to support Ukraine nearly as decisively as would be appropriate.
Not sure. I think Europe has done reasonably well since Feb 28th. The only gap is see is I am not sure if they will step up on the enforcment of oil price cap and start knocking out Russian black sea fleet. Can you tell me where you see gaps in Europe's response?
What is really disappointing me right now is how they threatened Russia with severe additional sanctions and how that now appears to be a total nothingburger. That I think really shouldn’t have happened and couldn’t have happened if they had had serious support processes in place for strategic action taking.
The biggest gap that I see is in regard to failing to respond effectively to Russian propaganda warfare. Our democracies cannot be adequately defended by weapons and soldiers alone, we also need armies of journalists tasked with investigating the claims and methods of Russian propaganda and publishing what they find. (I would envision that the journalists who are part of these armies would get their salaries not from the kind of media companies that exist today, but from a new kind that is funded in a similar way to how the military is funded.)
Also IMO much more needs to be done to communicate to the general public about the seriousness of the threat from Russian imperialism, together with the other enemies of democracy, to the future of democracy and the free world as a whole. As long as the general public is distracted and confused in regard to what the dangers are and what may need to be done, the necessary political will for taking significantly expensive decisive action cannot arise.
The second and third paragraphs I totally agree. None of them understand how masterfully Churchill and Roosevelt managed things. They actively worked the media. Our current leaders have no clue and they are not changing.
On the first one, Europe is ready. They are waiting for Trump. The wait is worth. It is not a mistake. It is a good decision.
It’s a good decision to wait for Trump if and only if (1) there is a greater-than-zero probability that US government might reasonably soon join a significantly effective additional sanctions package AND (2) they truly have the will to do it without the US if the US doesn’t join in a coordinated action soon.
My view in regard to (1) is that the relevant probability must be assessed as effectively zero.
In hindsight I have to admit that you were right. They were indeed waiting for Trump to make his move after having put him in a situation where really the only plausible move for him was to take himself off the board for now. They’ve played this very well.
My disappointment was premature and born out of impatience.
That will be actually a good outcome. Not a bad one.
What we do not want is more alignment between Trump and Putin, like asking Ukraine to surrender Crimea and US accepting Russian control of Ukraine's lands. I dont think this outcome will result tomorw. And i am totally game with it. Anything on top of this, is just a bonus.
Don’t count on the Rs in the Senate to push forward sanctions as they are too afraid of MAGA crazies. I will believe it when I see it. The question is what happens in the House and is there a veto proof majority.
Why is Trump even involved? The European Leaders and other allies can do this without him and the results will be much more positive. He is on the side of Russia and threatens allies. Leave him out of it.
1. Ukraine needs patriot interceptors. Putins missile arsenal is growing by the day
2. If Europe goes alone, which they can, then Trump may drift further towards Putin and if he ends up relaxing the secondary sanctions, then Putin gets few more months to continue the war. So not worth the pursuit in that direction.
3. Ukraine still needs the targeting data. They have gotten the Swedish Awacs, brits and the french are patrolling actively. So the back up is there, but you dont want to fall back to it without trying.
That is helpful. It’s hard to imagine Trump helping at all in this situation but I am grateful to see that several GOP Senators have called for stricter sanctions.
Yes. If things go down badly Europe has positioned itself to take care of it. But they are not interested in letting the US drift towards Russia. If I were advising them, this is exactly what I would have told them to do. Put up one heck of a fight and make sure that their buying power (buying american weapons) counts at every turn.
Never underestimate Ukraine and current administration! Do underestimate russia ( r , not R, they are dangerous killers with disregard of humans lives).
Great article, Shankar!
Glad to hear you have some hope, Shankar, we trust your analysis & we’ll hang on that!
Thanks Aocm. Status quo by end of day tmrw is a WIN.
Once again: No matter what Trump and Putin come up with, it is not binding on Ukraine. Let Trump bloviate and Putin prevaricate all they want. Zelenskyy and his advisors will decide what is best for their country. Europe needs to continue...or better yet, increase...their support. Ukraine is slowly gaining the upper hand, despite what the MSM likes to "clickbait" their doomsday prognostications.
"he" will TRY to give Putin what he wants ...but Zelenskyy is smarter than that!!
Trump is still in La La land. He’s convinced that he and he alone can convince warring parties to stop. It’s all a big fiction that plays over and over in his brain. It keeps him going. Without the stuck needle on the platinum record he’s a nobody and he knows that , so he lets it be stuck there to play the “I am the greatest” message over and over
Yea. I do think it will be down to the pro-nat sec GOP senators + defense lobby to push this admin in the right direction. They have done some decent work since April 20th. Lets see.
I think Trump has gained even more confidence in personal negotiations after meeting with Syrian ex-Alqaida leader and impressing the man about his greatness. LOL. Yes, the Russian hawks in the Senate should have a good two minute conversation with Trump - beyond that his attention span limitation makes him forget all the advice and go off script
Haha. Did you see MBS sitting there.... Possibly thinking, Ok, let me make sure that this does not go the Feb 28th way.
In fact Trump conceded that he was lifting the sanctions upon the wishes of a friend he can’t say no to. They have become ardent mutual admirers. Trump thinks here’s a kid king who has the power to change the Middle East whereas his actions can get blocked by a district judge - and wishes to be an MBS.
This isn't so much a comment as a combination of a question and preposterous proposal!
The Question: Do you have any insights why Ukraine has not tried harder to destroy the Kerch Bridge? Is this an issue of capability, or is it perhaps some back-channel deal, whereby Russia has warned Ukraine that if the bridge goes, then it will do something even more extreme than it has so far...
The Preposterous Proposal: We all know Trump likes a deal, so I am a little surprised that Zelensky hasn't yet offered the US a 500 year lease over the currently Russian leased part of the port of Sevastopol from which it could probably (with an appropriate fleet) control the whole of the Black Sea. Conditional, of course, on the US giving Ukraine the military assistance to get the Crimea back in the first place....
haha. I see where you are going with that.
Regarding the first question, Ukraine needs to get closer to the bridge through air to take them out. That means risking the F16s in a section that has the highest level of air defense protection. US has also not given suffiicient ATACMS to take out the bridge. Taurus is the only weapon that is ideal for this job. Rest you need volume. So why risk the f16s and high volume of weapons? The trade off is still not worth it.
According to a lot of military analysts prior to March/April 2022 Russia soldiers literally stood 10ft tall in some peoples minds. Well that was wrong Ukrainians stood tall and turned the so called Russian giants into military zombies whose idea of offensive warfare was to park on the nearest highway or dig trenches in the nearest radioactive forest. The tragedy is the Russian people still do not know just how bad a leader Putin is and thats partly down to the USA, France, Germany and the UK being scared to finish him off. The cost of which is being borne in Ukrainian blood.
OMG, Shankar--You're trying to convince Trump of something that differs from his chipped in stone opinions by stating the facts?? Good luck with that, my brother.
I hear you...
Excellent analysis Shankar. And as you know by now, I’m very skeptical that anything positive will come from this meeting, other than more lies, embellishments and propaganda as to the progress Trump is making on a deal.
And I guarantee that after the meeting, Trump will announce a major breakthrough, only the have one of Putin’s lapdogs claim otherwise in a tweet, or formal Russian statement.
That said, I’ll still hope for the best…:)🙏
No movement tmrw is a neutral outcome. Any movement away from Putin is a good outcome. Lets see. I dont think we sill see the results off the bat, but by Friday next week we will know the direction.
Thanks…:)
“Putin the Great—has a nice ring to it, doesn’t it?”
Maybe he’ll eventually be remembered as: Putin the Great Fool.
But we don’t know yet how things will ultimately play out. Western actions are deeply disappointing; the West is taking on way too much risk by failing to support Ukraine nearly as decisively as would be appropriate.
Not sure. I think Europe has done reasonably well since Feb 28th. The only gap is see is I am not sure if they will step up on the enforcment of oil price cap and start knocking out Russian black sea fleet. Can you tell me where you see gaps in Europe's response?
What is really disappointing me right now is how they threatened Russia with severe additional sanctions and how that now appears to be a total nothingburger. That I think really shouldn’t have happened and couldn’t have happened if they had had serious support processes in place for strategic action taking.
The biggest gap that I see is in regard to failing to respond effectively to Russian propaganda warfare. Our democracies cannot be adequately defended by weapons and soldiers alone, we also need armies of journalists tasked with investigating the claims and methods of Russian propaganda and publishing what they find. (I would envision that the journalists who are part of these armies would get their salaries not from the kind of media companies that exist today, but from a new kind that is funded in a similar way to how the military is funded.)
Also IMO much more needs to be done to communicate to the general public about the seriousness of the threat from Russian imperialism, together with the other enemies of democracy, to the future of democracy and the free world as a whole. As long as the general public is distracted and confused in regard to what the dangers are and what may need to be done, the necessary political will for taking significantly expensive decisive action cannot arise.
The second and third paragraphs I totally agree. None of them understand how masterfully Churchill and Roosevelt managed things. They actively worked the media. Our current leaders have no clue and they are not changing.
On the first one, Europe is ready. They are waiting for Trump. The wait is worth. It is not a mistake. It is a good decision.
It’s a good decision to wait for Trump if and only if (1) there is a greater-than-zero probability that US government might reasonably soon join a significantly effective additional sanctions package AND (2) they truly have the will to do it without the US if the US doesn’t join in a coordinated action soon.
My view in regard to (1) is that the relevant probability must be assessed as effectively zero.
In hindsight I have to admit that you were right. They were indeed waiting for Trump to make his move after having put him in a situation where really the only plausible move for him was to take himself off the board for now. They’ve played this very well.
My disappointment was premature and born out of impatience.
I suppose "*Vladimir* the Great" would be the correct formulation?
nothing will come out of tomorrows talks, trump and putin will ramble along, ukraine will not accept bullschite from both of them
That will be actually a good outcome. Not a bad one.
What we do not want is more alignment between Trump and Putin, like asking Ukraine to surrender Crimea and US accepting Russian control of Ukraine's lands. I dont think this outcome will result tomorw. And i am totally game with it. Anything on top of this, is just a bonus.
Don’t count on the Rs in the Senate to push forward sanctions as they are too afraid of MAGA crazies. I will believe it when I see it. The question is what happens in the House and is there a veto proof majority.
Agree. The numbers are there in the Senate, but I dont think think GOP will be ready to challenge trump by using the veto proof majority.
Why is Trump even involved? The European Leaders and other allies can do this without him and the results will be much more positive. He is on the side of Russia and threatens allies. Leave him out of it.
There are a few problems.
1. Ukraine needs patriot interceptors. Putins missile arsenal is growing by the day
2. If Europe goes alone, which they can, then Trump may drift further towards Putin and if he ends up relaxing the secondary sanctions, then Putin gets few more months to continue the war. So not worth the pursuit in that direction.
3. Ukraine still needs the targeting data. They have gotten the Swedish Awacs, brits and the french are patrolling actively. So the back up is there, but you dont want to fall back to it without trying.
4. Starlink.
Thank you for your response.
That is helpful. It’s hard to imagine Trump helping at all in this situation but I am grateful to see that several GOP Senators have called for stricter sanctions.
Yes. If things go down badly Europe has positioned itself to take care of it. But they are not interested in letting the US drift towards Russia. If I were advising them, this is exactly what I would have told them to do. Put up one heck of a fight and make sure that their buying power (buying american weapons) counts at every turn.
And how does it look today?