Tomorrow, Trump Talks to Putin—And the Future of Russia Hangs in the Balance
Will Trump finally break free from Putin’s grip—or hand him exactly what he wants?
I don’t think U.S. President Donald Trump realizes what he’s doing to Vladimir Putin. He keeps giving him hope. And with hope, Putin keeps doubling down on Russia’s risk exposure.
During a Fox News interview with Bret Baier on May 16, 2025, Trump casually remarked:
"Don’t forget, this was supposed to end in one week. And if he didn’t get stuck in the mud with his army tanks all over the place, they would have been in Kyiv in about five hours."
Ahhhh. The mud.
Why did those world-beating Russian tanks—driven by supposedly superior Russian tank crews—end up stuck in the mud? What happened to the highways?
Ah, yes. Ukraine happened.
They blew up the bridge over the Teteriv River near Ivankiv on February 25, 2022, cutting off the critical M-07 route from Belarus to Kyiv. Then they took down the bridges over the Irpin River. And while they were at it, they demolished crossings in the Chernobyl Zone, forcing Russia’s grand tank parade onto roads Ukraine wanted them to take—straight into kill zones.
Then came the British weapons. Portable tank busters. NLAWs. And just like that, the Russian tank columns started popping—sometimes at the front, sometimes in the middle—and the poor, glorious Russian tank drivers had no choice but to steer their magnificent war machines... into the mud.
How tragic.
Ukraine systematically slowed the Russian advance, buying precious hours to prepare Kyiv’s defenses. And oh, did they prepare. The people of Kyiv didn’t run. Even when their government warned them to stay away from apartment windows. When officials started circulating Molotov cocktail recipes, they didn’t toss them aside—they took them home.
18,000 firearms were distributed.
General Oleksandr Syrskyi took command of the city’s defense. Zelensky refused to flee. His ministers stayed put. And Syrskyi went to work—block by block, street by street—turning Kyiv into a fortress.
Every hour Russia’s tanks played with mud, Ukraine’s defenses grew stronger. That, right there, is a masterclass in urban defense. And now, thanks to Trump’s latest commentary, defense academies might just add his quote under the heading: “What Not to Say When You Don’t Know What You’re Talking About.”
But for a moment, be Vladimir Putin. Or better yet, be the poor soul advising him. Listen carefully to what Trump just said. Wouldn’t you think... maybe it’s worth a little more risk? Just a small gamble? After all, if Trump can be nudged along, maybe Putin really can outdo Peter the Great.
Putin the Great—has a nice ring to it, doesn’t it?
And that’s exactly what he’s doing. He’s doubling down. His delegation in Istanbul just rejected the peace proposal Trump’s team tabled in April.
Back in April, Trump’s envoys proudly offered Russia a seven-point peace plan. It dangled the prospect of formal U.S. recognition of Russian sovereignty over Crimea and de facto recognition of Russia’s current battlefield gains. A grand offer, they thought. There was even talk of sending in European peacekeepers—perhaps to oversee Ukraine’s slow surrender one checkpoint at a time.
But someone forgot to ask Putin if he was even interested.
Because when the Russian delegation showed up in Istanbul on May 16, they didn’t arrive with counteroffers. They arrived with ultimatums.
According to sources familiar with those talks, Russia’s position was blunt: Ukraine must hand over all of Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhia, and Kherson—along with Crimea—and the international community must formally recognize these territories as Russian soil before any ceasefire can even be discussed. On top of that, Ukraine must declare neutrality, ban foreign troops from its territory, and drop all demands for war reparations.
In other words, the Trump plan—so generous in its own mind—was dead on arrival. Russia wasn’t negotiating peace. It was dictating terms of Urkaine’s surrender.
And if that wasn’t clear enough, Russian officials doubled down. On May 17, Kremlin officials reminded everyone that President Putin’s demands from June 2024 still stand. Ukraine must withdraw entirely from the four occupied oblasts and publicly abandon its NATO ambitions. Until then? No ceasefire. No peace talks. Just the slow grind of war.
This is why ISW continues to assess that Putin isn’t interested in compromise—he’s waiting for total Ukrainian capitulation. While Trump’s team is busy sketching out peacekeeping deployments and photo ops, Putin’s delegation is making it clear: the only acceptable ending is a broken Ukraine and a victorious Russia.
And just in case anyone missed the message, Russian Security Council Deputy Chair Dmitry Medvedev popped up on May 17 to deliver his signature brand of thinly veiled nuclear threats. “All enemies of Russia that issue negotiating ultimatums should remember,” he warned, “unsuccessful negotiations can lead to a more terrible stage of war with new weapons and participants.”
This isn’t the language of a side seeking compromise—it’s the language of a regime convinced it can string Donald Trump along. And some of the statements he’s made since January 20 have only reinforced that belief in Putin and his inner circle.
Putin and his team have now outright rejected Trump’s peace plan.
Donald Trump is now scheduled to speak with both Putin and Zelensky tomorrow. And that, in itself, is a significant shift. He used to pick up the phone for Putin and leave Ukraine—and most of Europe—waiting.
Recent reports suggest Trump wants to try a carrot-and-stick approach this time. Well, he’s welcome to try. The all-carrot approach has already backfired spectacularly. And unless the stick is sharp enough, Putin will walk into that conversation wondering just how much more carrot he can extract—and how best to use it to drag this war out even further.
But there’s one thing I’m fairly confident about heading into tomorrow’s calls: the sanctions on Russia aren’t coming off. Not tomorrow, and not anytime soon. And considering the state of the Russian economy, that alone is a win—a position of real leverage for Ukraine.
Trump may also unlock $3.8 billion in Presidential Drawdown Authority left over from the Biden administration to support Ukraine. If his team manages to send a meaningful number of Patriot interceptors and a limited batch of ATACMS missiles—limited because the Pentagon will never allow too many of them—it would be a significant boost for Ukraine’s position.
Even if Trump doesn’t tighten sanctions further but simply holds the current line, and if those Patriots and ATACMS reach Ukrainian hands, Kyiv will head into the second half of 2025 in a far stronger position.
From this point forward, defeating Russia’s ground forces isn’t just about what happens on the frontlines. It’s about Ukraine’s deep-strike capabilities—taking the fight inside Russia. It’s about Europe’s sanctions and whether they’re actually enforced. And it’s about the economic rot inside the Kremlin slowly making its way to the battlefield.
That’s the real war now. And Putin knows it.
Tomorrow will be a pivotal day. And I sincerely hope that, for once, Trump breaks free from Putin’s spell. With U.S. senators turning up the heat on his administration, the odds feel… reasonable. Not certain. But for the first time in a long while, not impossible either.
Senator Lindsey Graham has been leading the charge, pushing hard for a new sanctions package against Russia. Alongside Senator Richard Blumenthal, he introduced the bipartisan Sanctioning Russia Act of 2025 back on April 1. The bill proposes crippling economic penalties if Russia refuses to engage in genuine peace negotiations—or violates any future agreements.
And now, the bill has momentum. With at least 73 co-sponsors, it’s locked, loaded, and waiting. All it needs is the right political moment to be unleashed.
Tomorrow could be that moment.
And if it is, the balance of this war might just start to shift.
Never underestimate Ukraine and current administration! Do underestimate russia ( r , not R, they are dangerous killers with disregard of humans lives).
Great article, Shankar!
Glad to hear you have some hope, Shankar, we trust your analysis & we’ll hang on that!