Things are looking up. The tables are turning, and more than just incrementally. The shit is beginning to hit the fan for Putin and no one could be more deserving,of said shit, than Vladimir.
‘Ukraine controls the kill chain’. Only partially. The C4ISTAR issues are very complex. Third party targeting is also complex. Getting from where Ukraine is now to ‘air superiority’ and then to ‘air supremacy’ will require lots more equipment, money, and training. Can it be done? Of course, provided allies of Ukraine (excluding USA) keep stepping up. Ukraine needs air superiority over uncontested airspace, then contested airspace and then over Russian airspace. There is a long way to go unfortunately.
Before Ukraine had its own AWACS, how could an F-16 take down a Russian jet --- it has to use its onboard radar. That would expose its position the moment it lit up. There’s no way Jake would’ve allowed NATO AWACS to fully integrate with Ukrainian fighter jets—that was a red line for them. And that’s precisely why, until now, not a single Russian fighter has been shot down by an F-16.
The U.S. restricted them to a purely defensive role. To take down Russian missiles.
But that’s changed.
Ukraine now owns the kill chain. That’s not a capacity issue—that’s a capability breakthrough. And yes, I agree with you on the capacity constraints in the theater. But what I’m highlighting is that Ukraine now possesses something it never had before. And the Russians are going to start paying the price for that. If Europe delivers more jets, that price only goes up.
Yes, this is a game-changer for Ukraine, but one destroyed Su-35 does not mean air superiority is at hand. Let's wait and see whether Ukraine can duplicate this feat. The one thing you can be sure of is that a success like this will encourage the UAF to become more aggressive in their use of their F-16s and Saab AWACs (two, so far as I know). Ukraine's military has shown an amazing ability to be creative in their use of their weapons and this latest triumph will, hopefully, signal the start of another phase in the conflict. While the number of F-16s committed to Ukraine is classified, the "round-about" number should be enough to fill out two NATO level squadrons (I have seen some reports that speculate up to 80 F-16s ultimately). This does not count the French Mirage 2000's which have already begun to arrive earlier than expected. Training pilots and ground crew is the real bottleneck, at this point, and only time and experience will fix that. None-the-less, this is excellent news for Ukraine...and really bad news for Russia.
Agreed. Europe has to ramp up deliver. And your number is correct. They can deliver a total of 80 jets. It is available and they are not even half way through. If they fix it and Ukraine keeps taking out Russian jets, then the corrosive effect will tilt the balance of the sky. So, the key is to first deliver the jets. At least the promised ones.
Sounds like a possible way to bankrupt russia, too. Ramp up Production and deliver as many fighter Jets as possible (Europe, Friedrich Merz), make the war expansiv in Money (and not blood, so much) Terms to a Point putin simply can’t Afford. Eskalation dominance in Euro Bills, if you will. (Sorry for the spelling).
It also does not count the 32 F-16s Greece has announced they will donate to Ukraine as they transition to F-35s (already approved by Congress). The timing won’t contribute soon though, because it was reported in 2024 that they would flow through the US for refurbishment; they are a batch of older Block 30s (said tongue-in-cheek by the guy who only flew up to Block 15) - and I think I saw somewhere that they might not show up in Ukraine till 2028. Which is better than not at all….
No idea what upgrades the refurbishment might include.
One question this article leads to is the source stream for Ukraine’s AMRAAM supply?
Super analysis. The future really is now. My heart is with Ukraine Keep Putin out of the skies and seeking drone attacks by investigating every truck, every boat, and good luck with that.
I rely on you for real world info on the war in Ukraine because main stream media does have or care to provide it. You are basing any possible prediction on specifics which you share. I appreciate that.
I really, really hope so. We have to keep this point alive in our notes so everyone knows how duplicitous Trump has been. The money was not allocated for the Middle East.
Only a couple of Republican Senators have objected to ANYTHING their Dear Leader has done or plans to do - much of it of greater salience and (near term) consequence to their constituents. Perhaps something gives with the Elmo-Orangefuhrer breakup, in that Elmo might be slower to sic his twitter hordes on Orange-doubters, but the blowup had nothing to do with foreign policy, and he's a putinist.
I love that Russia keeps taking it in the shorts. Constantly amazed with Ukraine’s ability to overcome obstacles, innovate, and strike. A real David vs. Goliath story.
We are seeing the mobilisation of European defence systems through Ukraine. The EU stated back in March they would need 3 months to prepare themselves - hello June!
Link 16 is how an F16 can talk to the AWACS aircraft. The awacs can see deep and tell the F16 what is going on. Like a spare eye that can see deep.
NATO had awacs aircraft but Ukraine was never given permission to use the eyes of those aircrafts to find and attack Russian jets.
Sweden has now handed over two AWACS aircraft to Ukraine. So Ukraine has its own eyes that can see deep and tell their own F16s what is going on. Let me know if i have explained this well. If not I will try again.
It appears that the USA REFUSED to give Ukraine the real help they so desperately needed to protect themselves from needless bombing of hospitals, apartments and schools!
THEREFORE, Sullivan has NO legitimate reason to claim that Ukraine would compromise our “aircraft!”
Jake Sullivan’s dedication to Ukraine’s success rates about a 2 on a ten scale. He was the source of guidance to Biden to sound great (“…As long as it takes…”), but only trickle the support - with delays and limitations - so as to avoid “escalation”. He would seek any justification to withhold anything that might give Ukraine any more than the bare minimum to survive. I can see Jake Sullivan claiming that NATO or US AWACs would be vulnerable as valid Russian targets (Russian S-400s can go a long way - 100s of km) if they became involved and therefore actively argued against their use.
As a Swede I am very proud of the donation of the two Saab 340 planes to Ukraine. That is a gamechanger. Sweden has two left and are planning to aquire three more in form of Saab Globaleye. Sweden has a very competent cluster of engineering around avionics and radars as well as robotics.
And don't forget, Sweden has contracted with Saab to modernize Ukraine's old Soviet aircraft with new avionics, radar, and other hardware upgrades and additions. This will effectively be like doubling the number of F16s being delivered. It may all be completed within six-to-twelve months. (Source: Wes O'Donnell)
Awesome!! So proud of Ukraine and proud of Sweden and all of Europe for stepping in and providing the equipment and support they need to finally, FINALLY be able to fight offensively. I hope Putin is hemorrhaging with no tourniquet in sight. This could, and SHOULD HAVE, happened 3 years ago. So many dead on both sides, for nothing. Maybe now it will end: and in that end, Europe will be safer and more secure with its renewed military strength and alliances. Bravo!!
I'm not sure how you can say that the diverted anti-drone missiles that were meant for Ukraine doesn't mean the US regime is working for the Russians. Why else would they be diverted? And what about the fact Zelensky is offering to buy weapons from the US and they aren't selling yet they'll sell to India and elsewhere. Seems very much like the US wants Ukraine and the rest of democracy to fail
Things are looking up. The tables are turning, and more than just incrementally. The shit is beginning to hit the fan for Putin and no one could be more deserving,of said shit, than Vladimir.
‘Ukraine controls the kill chain’. Only partially. The C4ISTAR issues are very complex. Third party targeting is also complex. Getting from where Ukraine is now to ‘air superiority’ and then to ‘air supremacy’ will require lots more equipment, money, and training. Can it be done? Of course, provided allies of Ukraine (excluding USA) keep stepping up. Ukraine needs air superiority over uncontested airspace, then contested airspace and then over Russian airspace. There is a long way to go unfortunately.
No, sir. Think about this for a moment.
Before Ukraine had its own AWACS, how could an F-16 take down a Russian jet --- it has to use its onboard radar. That would expose its position the moment it lit up. There’s no way Jake would’ve allowed NATO AWACS to fully integrate with Ukrainian fighter jets—that was a red line for them. And that’s precisely why, until now, not a single Russian fighter has been shot down by an F-16.
The U.S. restricted them to a purely defensive role. To take down Russian missiles.
But that’s changed.
Ukraine now owns the kill chain. That’s not a capacity issue—that’s a capability breakthrough. And yes, I agree with you on the capacity constraints in the theater. But what I’m highlighting is that Ukraine now possesses something it never had before. And the Russians are going to start paying the price for that. If Europe delivers more jets, that price only goes up.
Excellent article, good reading, understandable even for someone not so familiar with the equipment, TU!
👌
Great info and nothing I’ve seen anywhere else…thank you for passing this news along. Go Ukraine!
Yes, this is a game-changer for Ukraine, but one destroyed Su-35 does not mean air superiority is at hand. Let's wait and see whether Ukraine can duplicate this feat. The one thing you can be sure of is that a success like this will encourage the UAF to become more aggressive in their use of their F-16s and Saab AWACs (two, so far as I know). Ukraine's military has shown an amazing ability to be creative in their use of their weapons and this latest triumph will, hopefully, signal the start of another phase in the conflict. While the number of F-16s committed to Ukraine is classified, the "round-about" number should be enough to fill out two NATO level squadrons (I have seen some reports that speculate up to 80 F-16s ultimately). This does not count the French Mirage 2000's which have already begun to arrive earlier than expected. Training pilots and ground crew is the real bottleneck, at this point, and only time and experience will fix that. None-the-less, this is excellent news for Ukraine...and really bad news for Russia.
Agreed. Europe has to ramp up deliver. And your number is correct. They can deliver a total of 80 jets. It is available and they are not even half way through. If they fix it and Ukraine keeps taking out Russian jets, then the corrosive effect will tilt the balance of the sky. So, the key is to first deliver the jets. At least the promised ones.
Sounds like a possible way to bankrupt russia, too. Ramp up Production and deliver as many fighter Jets as possible (Europe, Friedrich Merz), make the war expansiv in Money (and not blood, so much) Terms to a Point putin simply can’t Afford. Eskalation dominance in Euro Bills, if you will. (Sorry for the spelling).
Blame auto spell check. I always do. 😉
It also does not count the 32 F-16s Greece has announced they will donate to Ukraine as they transition to F-35s (already approved by Congress). The timing won’t contribute soon though, because it was reported in 2024 that they would flow through the US for refurbishment; they are a batch of older Block 30s (said tongue-in-cheek by the guy who only flew up to Block 15) - and I think I saw somewhere that they might not show up in Ukraine till 2028. Which is better than not at all….
No idea what upgrades the refurbishment might include.
One question this article leads to is the source stream for Ukraine’s AMRAAM supply?
Super analysis. The future really is now. My heart is with Ukraine Keep Putin out of the skies and seeking drone attacks by investigating every truck, every boat, and good luck with that.
No, BAD luck with that!
I rely on you for real world info on the war in Ukraine because main stream media does have or care to provide it. You are basing any possible prediction on specifics which you share. I appreciate that.
Thank Michael
I imagine the pro-Ukraine Republican senators will furiously object to withholding 20,000 anti drone munitions from Ukraine.
I really, really hope so. We have to keep this point alive in our notes so everyone knows how duplicitous Trump has been. The money was not allocated for the Middle East.
Republican “hawks,” are only sparrows !
No offense to sparrows who can be quite courageous when defending their nests!
Only a couple of Republican Senators have objected to ANYTHING their Dear Leader has done or plans to do - much of it of greater salience and (near term) consequence to their constituents. Perhaps something gives with the Elmo-Orangefuhrer breakup, in that Elmo might be slower to sic his twitter hordes on Orange-doubters, but the blowup had nothing to do with foreign policy, and he's a putinist.
Ya, I was being sarcastic
My duh. Aren't these missiles bought and paid for in Biden-dollars, and overdue? That's another "duh," I guess.
I love that Russia keeps taking it in the shorts. Constantly amazed with Ukraine’s ability to overcome obstacles, innovate, and strike. A real David vs. Goliath story.
We are seeing the mobilisation of European defence systems through Ukraine. The EU stated back in March they would need 3 months to prepare themselves - hello June!
Jake Sullivan was afraid that integrating our AWACS with Ukraine’s fighter jets made them vulnerable!
However, Ukraine’s use of “ Line 16” and Sweden’s AWACS is completely safe!
What the hell am I missing here!
Explain, please!
Link 16 is how an F16 can talk to the AWACS aircraft. The awacs can see deep and tell the F16 what is going on. Like a spare eye that can see deep.
NATO had awacs aircraft but Ukraine was never given permission to use the eyes of those aircrafts to find and attack Russian jets.
Sweden has now handed over two AWACS aircraft to Ukraine. So Ukraine has its own eyes that can see deep and tell their own F16s what is going on. Let me know if i have explained this well. If not I will try again.
Very good explanation. You're very patient with those of us who have never had to learn these things: nor ever expected to have to. 👍
It appears that the USA REFUSED to give Ukraine the real help they so desperately needed to protect themselves from needless bombing of hospitals, apartments and schools!
THEREFORE, Sullivan has NO legitimate reason to claim that Ukraine would compromise our “aircraft!”
Sullivan’s arguing in circles !!!
Jake Sullivan’s dedication to Ukraine’s success rates about a 2 on a ten scale. He was the source of guidance to Biden to sound great (“…As long as it takes…”), but only trickle the support - with delays and limitations - so as to avoid “escalation”. He would seek any justification to withhold anything that might give Ukraine any more than the bare minimum to survive. I can see Jake Sullivan claiming that NATO or US AWACs would be vulnerable as valid Russian targets (Russian S-400s can go a long way - 100s of km) if they became involved and therefore actively argued against their use.
Thanks, Doug!
I get angry thinking of ALL THE GODDAMNED MONEY WE SPEND ON THE MILITARY-INDUSTRIAL COMPLEX, President Eisenhower warned us about!
When our allies depend on us, we walk our way backwards AND TENS OF THOUSANDS OF INNOCENT PEOPLE DIED DUE TO …..WHAT?????
Putin’s bullying?
Weak-knees and weak-minds are a curse of the Democratic leadership IMHO! (I’m a lifelong Democrat and ashamed of their lack of courage!)
👌!!!
Thanks Doug. I wondered about that. Too bad ....😥
Very exciting stuff!!
As a Swede I am very proud of the donation of the two Saab 340 planes to Ukraine. That is a gamechanger. Sweden has two left and are planning to aquire three more in form of Saab Globaleye. Sweden has a very competent cluster of engineering around avionics and radars as well as robotics.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saab_340_AEW%26C
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/GlobalEye
And don't forget, Sweden has contracted with Saab to modernize Ukraine's old Soviet aircraft with new avionics, radar, and other hardware upgrades and additions. This will effectively be like doubling the number of F16s being delivered. It may all be completed within six-to-twelve months. (Source: Wes O'Donnell)
Awesome!! So proud of Ukraine and proud of Sweden and all of Europe for stepping in and providing the equipment and support they need to finally, FINALLY be able to fight offensively. I hope Putin is hemorrhaging with no tourniquet in sight. This could, and SHOULD HAVE, happened 3 years ago. So many dead on both sides, for nothing. Maybe now it will end: and in that end, Europe will be safer and more secure with its renewed military strength and alliances. Bravo!!
I'm not sure how you can say that the diverted anti-drone missiles that were meant for Ukraine doesn't mean the US regime is working for the Russians. Why else would they be diverted? And what about the fact Zelensky is offering to buy weapons from the US and they aren't selling yet they'll sell to India and elsewhere. Seems very much like the US wants Ukraine and the rest of democracy to fail
Best news all week!
Does this mean that fighter jets are obsolete?
No. It means Russia will have to stay a little cautious about getting closer to the front. Less glidebombs and higher fighter jet losses.