The Sky Just Took One Giant Step Against Russia

A Ukrainian F-16 brought down a Su-35 using Western tech.

Today, we flip the script.

We’ve got some bad news, but also a pile of good news—so good it’s starting to scare my pants off. First, let’s get the bad stuff out of the way. Then we’ll break down the good bits, one win at a time.

It’s been nine days since Ukraine launched Operation Spiderweb and knocked out a third of Russia’s strategic bomber fleet—in the most humiliating fashion imaginable. The FSB is supposed to be the one sneaking radioactive substances into foreign cities. Russian spies are the ones meant to recruit foreigners to torch warehouses and weapons plants. Not the other way around. And definitely not losing a bomber fleet Putin can’t replace anytime soon.

So when Putin told Donald Trump that he had to retaliate, and Trump promptly behaved like his press secretary, there was some expectation that a massive missile and drone barrage would follow. Pundits predicted hundreds of missiles. I wasn’t so sure.

Here’s why. Putin’s largest salvos have maxed out around 100 missiles. That’s his limit—and missiles are his last line of defense. It’s the cash hidden under the mattress when you’re already staring at bankruptcy. You don’t touch it unless the roof’s on fire. You don’t burn through that unless you absolutely have to. I figured he’d go slightly above 100, and aim not for military targets, but for soft civilian ones: hospitals, theaters, supermarkets, dams, power grids—anything that screams human, not hardened.

But no. Nothing came.

The sequence………..

• June 4: Press Secretary Trump publicly backs Putin’s call for retaliation.

• June 5: Russia hits Kharkiv and surrounding areas—1 Iskander missile, 103 drones.

• June 6: 407 drones, 45 missiles.

• June 7: 206 drones, 9 missiles.

• June 8: 49 drones, 3 missiles.

• June 9: 479 drones, 20 missiles.

• Total so far: 1,141 drones (including decoys) and just 78 missiles.

If you're wondering what the heck is going on—don’t. There are a few plausible reasons. Knocking out a third of Russia’s bomber fleet didn’t just bruise egos—it created a logistical mess. Those 100-missile salvos Russia used to launch? They need prep, staging, and delivery vehicles. And now, who knows where the rest of the fleet is—or where the Ukrainians are waiting to strike next. Only the Russians and Budanov know for sure. But it’s likely their ability to mount complex strike packages is temporarily crippled. It looks promising, but we’ll need more time and data to confirm it’s permanent.

There’s also one more piece to this puzzle: the Trump administration quietly diverted nearly 20,000 anti-drone missiles that were meant for Ukraine. Instead, they got rerouted to the Middle East. Russia would’ve picked up on that instantly.

And no—I know the next question. Is the Trump team coordinating with the Russians? I doubt it. They’re reckless and feckless, yes. But something that risky? Too dangerous for a presidency built entirely on optics.

Truth is, they didn’t need to say a word. The moment the shipment was diverted, Russia knew. So it’s no surprise they’re leaning on drones while rationing missiles. But even that doesn’t fully explain the drop.

By now, Putin should’ve paired those 1,141 drones with over 200 missiles. He hasn’t. And with missile strike package hit rates falling below 50%, barely half of their past peak, the message is clear: Ukraine’s June 1st strike broke something big. Russia’s ability to launch massive waves of missiles is gone—for now.

They’re scrambling to patch the hole. Let’s hope Ukraine’s got a few more “take out the archer” tricks left.

Which brings us to the good news. Actually—scratch that. This isn’t just good news for the day. This is great news for the future. On June 7th, a Ukrainian F-16 went head-to-head with a Russian Su-35—and shot it out of the sky.

Ukraine has shot down Su-35s before—but this is different. This is the first confirmed kill of a Russian Su-35 by a Western-supplied F-16. And that’s a milestone.

The Su-35 is Russia’s top-tier multirole fighter: advanced sensors, ranged missiles, high maneuverability. The F-16 may be older in design, but the NATO-standard upgrades—radars, weapons, systems—make it a serious match.

On June 7th, it proved it.

This wasn’t just a tactical win. It was a strategic message: Ukraine’s integration of Western airpower is no longer theoretical. It’s operational—and it’s tipping the balance.

According to Bild, the kill was enabled by a Swedish-donated Saab 340 AEW&C, now flying Ukrainian colors. Using its Erieye radar, the AWACS detected the Su-35 deep inside Russian airspace. It relayed targeting data in real time via the NATO-standard Link 16 network. The Ukrainian F-16 didn’t even need to switch on its own radar. It launched an AIM-120 AMRAAM missile blind, relying solely on uplinked data—and scored a direct hit just 10–15 kilometers inside Russian territory. The Su-35 never saw it coming.

Here’s how the kill likely unfolded:

Saab AEW&C: Flying at high altitude, Erieye covers a much wider area than a conventional ground-based sensor system does. The effective surveillance area is over 500,000 sq. km horizontally and over 60,000 ft. vertically.

The Saab 340 AWACS fed high-fidelity targeting data through Link 16—a secure, high-speed digital network. This gave the F-16 pilot everything he needed: bearing, speed, altitude, closure rate. All without lighting up his own radar.

That radar silence was key. It kept the F-16 invisible to the Su-35’s sensors and jamming systems—and off the radar of Russia’s broader tracking network.

Then came the shot.

Likely a Dutch-modified F-16, the Ukrainian jet closed in, launched the AIM-120 AMRAAM—then let the missile do the rest. Mid-course updates from the Saab 340 AWACS guided it in until the AMRAAM’s own radar activated in the final seconds. Clean kill.

This is huge. Massive. Everyone in the game knows what AWACS brings to the table. Back on March 7th—right after the Trump-Vance team pulled U.S. intelligence support and temporarily grounded the Ukrainian Air Force—I had one simple request for Europe:

They need to send every available short- and medium-range air defense unit to Ukraine. But even that won’t be enough. Ukraine needs AWACS.

Airborne Warning and Control System (AWACS) aircraft will transform Ukraine’s air defenses by providing real-time surveillance, early warnings for missile and drone attacks, and enhanced coordination for fighter jets and air defense units. AWACS will help close the intelligence gap left by the U.S. and dramatically improve Ukraine’s ability to respond to threats.

Europe has AWACS. They’ve been holding onto them tightly, fearing a future war. But that war is already here.

It’s time to let go of that fear and send Ukraine what it needs. If they can secure the skies, everything else can be managed.

— The Concis, March 7th, 2025

The arrival of Sweden’s AWACS in Ukrainian hands has changed everything. It doesn’t just protect the F-16s—it turns the sky into a kill zone for Russian jets. One more step now: if Europe ramps up fighter jet deliveries, Russia’s last real advantage—its airpower—can be broken.

Once Russia loses the skies, it loses the war. When their fighters are pushed off the front, their ground forces won't hold for long.

This isn’t over—not yet.

But Ukraine now controls the full airborne kill chain:

1. Detection (AWACS).

2. Communication (Link 16).

3. Engagement (F-16s with AMRAAMs).

All under Ukrainian command.
That’s not just progress. That’s power.

Jake Sullivan did everything in the book—and possibly off the book—to stop Ukraine from reaching this point. But they did anyway.

Ukraine no longer needs permission. It just needs volume.
If Europe delivers, Trump can keep his missiles.

And all his cards.

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