To me, it’s impossible to tell what final tallies will be - because we *know* their are GOP defections - in every state , we just don’t know by how much. I’m in CO, and T did not win in the urban counties or suburbs- were home to the woman who tried to have T removed from the ballot. These folks are not gonna “come home”. We have a libertarian faction that has been voting for T- he’s lost many of them - and the dictator talk is the nail in the coffin for them. What we also don’t know is how the “other” segment is voting , or 3rd party effect. I’m thinking a lot of Independents/other break for Harris. Interesting all in all - pathetic about the red wave polls - another indicator they’re in trouble
Can you please clarify how you see Harris winning one of. GA/NC/AZ "completely shuts down Trump's path to the white house"? None of those three have as many EC votes as PA, so if Harris wins one of GA/NC/AZ but loses PA with it's 19 EC votes, Trump still wins. Seems to me your assumption is only true if you assume Trump can't win PA + NV, which are both margin of error races in polling right now.
I checked your link, but it doesn't answer my question - I'd say it actually refutes your position as it shows both PA and NV as pure toss-ups. As your own map shows, Harris could win any one of AZ/GA/NC and still lose the election if Trump wins PA + NV - two states listed in your map as too close to call. Harris winning an one of AZ/GA/NC would allow her to lose MI or WI and still win, but if she loses PA with its 19 EC votes, it's more than any one of AZ/GA/NC can make up.
To me, it’s impossible to tell what final tallies will be - because we *know* their are GOP defections - in every state , we just don’t know by how much. I’m in CO, and T did not win in the urban counties or suburbs- were home to the woman who tried to have T removed from the ballot. These folks are not gonna “come home”. We have a libertarian faction that has been voting for T- he’s lost many of them - and the dictator talk is the nail in the coffin for them. What we also don’t know is how the “other” segment is voting , or 3rd party effect. I’m thinking a lot of Independents/other break for Harris. Interesting all in all - pathetic about the red wave polls - another indicator they’re in trouble
Trump's GOP support in 2016 and 2020 was at 88-91%. I think he will land around the same level, if not lower. But he is not going to get higher.
Bang on! I quote a renowned authority (you!) in my article on the national impact:
https://barrygander.substack.com/p/pay-people-n-polls-good-news-for
Ha.... Thx.
Thank you for this careful analysis.
I agree
Wow stunning
Can you please clarify how you see Harris winning one of. GA/NC/AZ "completely shuts down Trump's path to the white house"? None of those three have as many EC votes as PA, so if Harris wins one of GA/NC/AZ but loses PA with it's 19 EC votes, Trump still wins. Seems to me your assumption is only true if you assume Trump can't win PA + NV, which are both margin of error races in polling right now.
This is why sir,
https://substack.com/profile/14955884-shankar-narayan/note/c-73932253
I checked your link, but it doesn't answer my question - I'd say it actually refutes your position as it shows both PA and NV as pure toss-ups. As your own map shows, Harris could win any one of AZ/GA/NC and still lose the election if Trump wins PA + NV - two states listed in your map as too close to call. Harris winning an one of AZ/GA/NC would allow her to lose MI or WI and still win, but if she loses PA with its 19 EC votes, it's more than any one of AZ/GA/NC can make up.