Record-Breaking Early Votes in Georgia Spell Trouble for Donald Trump

Trump Has More Reasons to Lose Georgia Than Win It

If you ask me which of the seven battleground states is the most genuinely purple based on polling data, I would choose North Carolina. I initially thought Pennsylvania would be the one in the middle this year, but Harris almost set up camp there and stifled Trump’s momentum in the state.

However, if I were to look at past election results to pick the truest purple state, I would have to choose Georgia. There are plenty of contenders for second place, but the top spot belongs to Georgia — and Georgia alone.

If I had lived in Georgia, I would have voted for Brad Raffensperger too. That wasn’t even a question. For the integrity that man showed, he’s earned my support for life. Men with that kind of backbone, who can say no to power even under extreme duress, are what everyone aspires to be, but only a few manage to become.

Both Governor Brian Kemp and Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger had huge targets on their backs from the MAGA crowd for refusing to “find” the 11,000 votes Donald Trump asked for to overturn the 2020 election results. Trump tried to rally GOP voters to defeat both of them in the primary. Yet, Kemp and Raffensperger decisively defeated the MAGA candidates and went on to win their statewide races by a landslide.

I was particularly pleased to see Brad Raffensperger win by a whopping 350,000-vote margin. That number alone shows us that neither Democrats nor Republicans in Georgia are averse to voting for candidates from both parties and, crucially, are willing to go against MAGA candidates.

Georgia is something. They really are something.

Polls coming out of Georgia have started fluctuating. From a 4-point lead for Harris to a 1-point lead for Donald Trump — that’s how the numbers looked in October.

If the election were held today, meaning if everyone voted today, the margin would be razor-thin. There’s no way to predict who would win. To complicate matters even further, both Republicans and Democrats are turning out in record numbers.

There is very little to differentiate between the counties that overwhelmingly vote for Democrats and those that vote for the GOP. Both are turning out with almost equal intensity. One thing that’s becoming very clear is that if this pace continues, Georgia will easily surpass 2020 turnout levels and exceed 5 million votes this year.

There are a few reasons to believe Harris may end up taking Georgia.

1. Women are voting in record numbers, currently making up 55% of the votes— ten points higher than men. Harris holds a solid lead over Donald Trump among female voters

Screenshot from NBC News

2. There are no top-line statewide races in Georgia; no one is running for the Senate, and no one is running for governor. The entire record-breaking turnout is occurring because of the presidential contest.

3. In 2020, 48 GOP state representatives ran unopposed in GA. These are gerrymandered districts where winning the GOP primary means you have effectively won the seat. No one wants to run from the Democratic side, knowing they will likely lose. Research has shown time and again that when Democrats contest these seats, even when they lose the down-ballot race, they end up adding more votes at the top of the ticket. Just 1,000 additional votes in each of these 48 seats would provide a significant boost to the presidential ticket.

To address this, Democrats created an organization called the Fighting 50, which has mobilized resources to support Democratic candidates in these districts. This effort is likely to have a meaningful impact. In a race that appears so tight, these votes could very well make the difference between the winner and the loser.

4. The icing on the cake is that GOP defections are beginning to increase in the final stretch.

A Wall Street Journal poll released last week found that, while Harris and Trump are in a dead heat in Arizona, 47 percent to 45 percent, 8 percent of Republicans and GOP-leaning voters said they would vote for Harris.

A recent New York Times and Siena College poll also found that 9 percent of registered Republicans said they plan to vote for Harris, up from 5 percent in the last poll.

That is a four-point increase in Republican support for Harris between the last two polls conducted by NYT/Siena. If you notice, the WSJ numbers and the NYT numbers are very close — just a 1-point difference. So, the defections are real and picking up speed.

One weakness I’m still watching closely for Harris is her support level among Latinos. She has improved and is starting to hit the critical 60% support mark with them. However, it’s just one poll, and I would like to see her stabilize around that number. We need more polls and more time. As a result, I am still keeping Trump ahead of her to win Arizona.

But Georgia does not have a large Hispanic population like Arizona. It is a different state with different demographics. Georgia also defied Donald Trump’s choices in 2022 by a significant margin.

• They rejected Donald Trump in 2020. Biden won.

• They did not buy into his election bullshit. Kemp and Raffensperger won in 2022.

Now you can do the math and see why my confidence level in Harris winning Georgia has shot up in the final stretch. Of the three states — North Carolina, Georgia, and Arizona — Harris needs only one state to completely shut down Donald Trump’s path to the White House.

North Carolina looks tight; anyone can win there. Trump is still ahead in Arizona, but Harris is now ahead in Georgia.