“Refineries process crude into high-value products like gasoline and diesel—the cash cows of the oil business. Shut down a refinery, and Russia loses the markup between crude and refined products.”
Yes, and in addition:
* The military, including in particular its logistics —freight trains as well as trucks— runs on diesel.
* Shortages of gasoline and diesel will over time cause the civilian population in Russia to understand that economic pain is coming to them from Russia’s continuing warfare against Ukraine.
I’ve lived most of my life with a very naïve understanding of how finance is tied to war. I just never really thought about it, but it costs a ton of money and that money has to come from somewhere. I recently read a book called, The Ascent of Money that showed how, amongst numerous other aspects of the workings of money and financial markets, the country that maintains the financing usually wins the war. The very thing you’re speaking of in today’s article.
Thank you Shankar. It seems when I remember the history of “the Ukraine” as a Soviet state, wasn’t it the engineering & design powerhouse of the USSR? They designed and built Chernobyl, it makes sense that they are innovative and efficient 🇺🇦
Your analysis always makes me think and feel better about Ukraine’s future. And I agree with your assessment that Ukraine is playing a sophisticated and brilliant strategic game of war against Putin. Sun Tzu would be impressed.
Well done Shankar: Bravo! So I guess Ukraine does have some leverage after all!!
And who would have ever thought that Trump and Vance, after their pathetic Oval Office shakedown, would be relegated to the kiddy’s table, and rendered just a bunch of useless invertebrates, or DOTARDs!
Furthermore, it’s all starting to make sense; changing the name of the Department of Defense to the Department of War, and turning their attention to declaring war on Chicago?
Bottom line: I believe both Trump and Putin need to learn to read the room! Apparently, neither one has any semblance of self awareness. China may be trying to kick America while it’s down, but these SCO bonds would definitely dampen their relationship with their largest trade partners, the EU and US, respectively. So good luck with that!
Ukraine continues to be clever. Now I see why it is the refineries they are going after Is there any chance of them getting more defensive armaments in the face of Russia’s intensifying attacks? I suppose all calculated attacks that cause Russia to have problems functioning continue as good choices.
I am surprised that Putin went out on a limb with the other dictators. There was little to be gained (I think), but Trump was miffed.
So Ukraine has subtly taken US instructions not to go “too far” with Russia-they gave an opportunity to bring destruction to Russia while their economy collapses…?
Ukraine can't hunt down and destroy all of Russia's shadow fleet, unless the Baltic and Scandinavian countries permit missile overflights, because Russia is exporting quite a bit via Baltic and Arctic ports also. And Belarus wouldn't go for it.
But give them enough missiles, and let them go to town on every refinery and facility inside Russia, and every ship they can reach.
I have been wondering why Ukraine isn't being more aggressive. This makes perfect sense. I did not consider global oil market stability. Thank you for this insight.
This was very helpful to me for context on this alliance
I've seen a lot of la-la-land economics in my time, but never on this scale. The fact that Putin even thought this was achievable reveals exactly how much he understands about financial markets. Trust—the true currency of any financial system—is the one thing the SCO, BRICS, and most Russian institutions conspicuously lack. Without it, all the grand declarations in Tianjin remain just that: empty theater.
Not destroying the shadow fleet seems very sensible. War is in itself an utter waste of everything but trying not to add huge oil spills all around seems the thing to do. For a host of reasons. Maybe Sun Tzu would concur.
“Refineries process crude into high-value products like gasoline and diesel—the cash cows of the oil business. Shut down a refinery, and Russia loses the markup between crude and refined products.”
Yes, and in addition:
* The military, including in particular its logistics —freight trains as well as trucks— runs on diesel.
* Shortages of gasoline and diesel will over time cause the civilian population in Russia to understand that economic pain is coming to them from Russia’s continuing warfare against Ukraine.
Yes..
so perfectly put so beautifully written
I’ve lived most of my life with a very naïve understanding of how finance is tied to war. I just never really thought about it, but it costs a ton of money and that money has to come from somewhere. I recently read a book called, The Ascent of Money that showed how, amongst numerous other aspects of the workings of money and financial markets, the country that maintains the financing usually wins the war. The very thing you’re speaking of in today’s article.
Thank you Shankar. It seems when I remember the history of “the Ukraine” as a Soviet state, wasn’t it the engineering & design powerhouse of the USSR? They designed and built Chernobyl, it makes sense that they are innovative and efficient 🇺🇦
I totally agree - but Chernobyl might not be the best example to use, LOL.
Your analysis always makes me think and feel better about Ukraine’s future. And I agree with your assessment that Ukraine is playing a sophisticated and brilliant strategic game of war against Putin. Sun Tzu would be impressed.
Well done Shankar: Bravo! So I guess Ukraine does have some leverage after all!!
And who would have ever thought that Trump and Vance, after their pathetic Oval Office shakedown, would be relegated to the kiddy’s table, and rendered just a bunch of useless invertebrates, or DOTARDs!
Furthermore, it’s all starting to make sense; changing the name of the Department of Defense to the Department of War, and turning their attention to declaring war on Chicago?
Bottom line: I believe both Trump and Putin need to learn to read the room! Apparently, neither one has any semblance of self awareness. China may be trying to kick America while it’s down, but these SCO bonds would definitely dampen their relationship with their largest trade partners, the EU and US, respectively. So good luck with that!
Slava Ukraini! 🇺🇦
This is it. Thank you Shankar. The U.S. can no longer be considered a trusted partner We've known this for the last 9 months but now it is understood.
"Now here's where it gets interesting.
President Zelensky publicly stated they're not discussing deep strikes in Russian territory with the Pentagon."
Ukraine continues to be clever. Now I see why it is the refineries they are going after Is there any chance of them getting more defensive armaments in the face of Russia’s intensifying attacks? I suppose all calculated attacks that cause Russia to have problems functioning continue as good choices.
I am surprised that Putin went out on a limb with the other dictators. There was little to be gained (I think), but Trump was miffed.
Thank you once again for the insights.
So Ukraine has subtly taken US instructions not to go “too far” with Russia-they gave an opportunity to bring destruction to Russia while their economy collapses…?
Sort of.
Well will see how things proceed…
Ukraine can't hunt down and destroy all of Russia's shadow fleet, unless the Baltic and Scandinavian countries permit missile overflights, because Russia is exporting quite a bit via Baltic and Arctic ports also. And Belarus wouldn't go for it.
But give them enough missiles, and let them go to town on every refinery and facility inside Russia, and every ship they can reach.
Sounds like Putin is living in a financial disinformation bubble. Just like Trump. No surprise that they are such good “friends”.
Thank you, for another excellent explanation.
Stay safe and well.
I have been wondering why Ukraine isn't being more aggressive. This makes perfect sense. I did not consider global oil market stability. Thank you for this insight.
I'm with ya, dude!! I've got everything flexible enough,..crossed! 😄. 👍👍💯
This was very helpful to me for context on this alliance
I've seen a lot of la-la-land economics in my time, but never on this scale. The fact that Putin even thought this was achievable reveals exactly how much he understands about financial markets. Trust—the true currency of any financial system—is the one thing the SCO, BRICS, and most Russian institutions conspicuously lack. Without it, all the grand declarations in Tianjin remain just that: empty theater.
Thank you
Not destroying the shadow fleet seems very sensible. War is in itself an utter waste of everything but trying not to add huge oil spills all around seems the thing to do. For a host of reasons. Maybe Sun Tzu would concur.