I disagree with your assessment. The past three months would have been the most critical if Putin was playing for a Trump victory. That eventuality is where Russia stands to gain the most. Activity after Nov. 5th has no consequence on the American electorate. If Russia was going to have a breakthrough it should have been in the last month so as to disrupt the election with fatalist notions of Ukrainian defeat and frame Biden-Harris as ineffectual in handling the conflict. I think the October spike in activity reflects this. Putin was surely playing for yet another political spectacle at the expense of turning his men into ribbons. Ukraine has not broken and surely has maintained its defender’s advantage of enacting disproportionate destruction on the attackers. I would be surprised if activity continued accelerating into November.
I actually agee with you. What you said was the orginal plan. But Ukraine made a mess out of it by invading Kursk. So, he is on to plan B. This has two openings. One if Trump wins, it gives him the leeway to say Russia is winning and stop helping Ukraine. If Kamala wins it cuts her breathing space with allies. But regarding the escalation into November, we are already in it. So keep an eye and hit me a note a few weeks from now.
Mid-November I should have said. European allies are basically divided into those taking cues from the US and those arming Ukraine out of immediate self-preservation. I do not think there is any contingency in which an ally tempers a US intent on seeing out the conflict. But we shall see if Russia thinks differently.
It is happenning sir, just as we both discussed: Yesterday and the day before. Record breaking losses.
"Russian forces suffered their deadliest day since the start of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine for the second day in a row, according to figures released by Kyiv on Nov. 12. According to the General Staff of Ukraine's Armed Forces, Moscow's troops lost 1,950 men over the preceding day. This surpasses the previous record of 1,770 set just the day before."
Thank you for the analysis. It was clear Putin was working around the election. How will he utilize the North Koreans? He certainly doesn’t want another call up if he can help it.
I think the 10k troops he asked to get to Kursk is a test. He wants to see what the west will do. If they do nothing, which is expected, he will slowly keep bringing in more troops. It makes a lot of sense for the Russian state which is going through a deep recession. Extracting more workers out of the workforce is a huge problem and he cannot order a full mobilization either. He needs North Korea to supply troops. Expect more DPRK troops to come in. They will participate in full combat. Not just support roles.
I expected he would bring more troops. Even if they aren’t trained he just needs the bodies. But I can’t imagine Kim Jong Un wants to draw down his numbers very much. If nothing else they give him bragging rights to a huge army. Favors are favors. If Russia is in tough shape economically what do they have that North Korea wants? Russia’s technology is lapsing.
Tech. Money. UN Security council protection. Trade. Russia still has a ton of commodities that it can deliver. It just deepens the the relationship between two autocracies. It is such a huge opportunity for North Korea. They have a lot to gain from this.
There are plenty of ways to respond to this. But whatever that may be, it has to be public and it has to be kept on an escalation ladder. A lot of things will change in the next 48 hours. So everyone is waiting, including Europe. Harris will get to decide. So, lets wait it out. We are almost there.
I am no military strategy, policy or presidency expert, but I was hoping, naively hoping, that between Nov 6 and next president’s inauguration, President Biden will step up and implement some bold decisions in supporting Ukraine with resources and untying their hands. Politically, he would have less to lose, historically he would be establishing his legacy. 🤞
This strategy is extremely dangerous for the Russians. With Kursk they have no reserves so each meter they take stretches their lines that bit further so those lines are now taught and brittle. One wrong turn by a platoon of soldiers, one missed delivery of ammo and the cracks appear. At that point Ukraine can pounce with a massive hammer and smash through the lines and roll up the lines from behind. With little depth to stop them.
With morale so low, it could turn into another rout as rumours (helpfully amplified by Ukrainian intelligence) spread like wildfire.
I now wonder if Kursk was primarily focused on removing the reserves and stretching the lines thin in other parts of the front line just for this strategy. Ukrainians knew Putin was unlikely to pull enough troops out to re-take Kursk but would take enough to stop the advanced which would be enough to thin the rest of the front lines enough for their strategy to work.
Ukrainians have probably already identified several locations that are liable to crack (and they won't be obvious to anyone else) along with ready to go feint operations.
With the reported losses above the level of replacement Russian units must be getting very very thin.
I disagree with your assessment. The past three months would have been the most critical if Putin was playing for a Trump victory. That eventuality is where Russia stands to gain the most. Activity after Nov. 5th has no consequence on the American electorate. If Russia was going to have a breakthrough it should have been in the last month so as to disrupt the election with fatalist notions of Ukrainian defeat and frame Biden-Harris as ineffectual in handling the conflict. I think the October spike in activity reflects this. Putin was surely playing for yet another political spectacle at the expense of turning his men into ribbons. Ukraine has not broken and surely has maintained its defender’s advantage of enacting disproportionate destruction on the attackers. I would be surprised if activity continued accelerating into November.
I actually agee with you. What you said was the orginal plan. But Ukraine made a mess out of it by invading Kursk. So, he is on to plan B. This has two openings. One if Trump wins, it gives him the leeway to say Russia is winning and stop helping Ukraine. If Kamala wins it cuts her breathing space with allies. But regarding the escalation into November, we are already in it. So keep an eye and hit me a note a few weeks from now.
Mid-November I should have said. European allies are basically divided into those taking cues from the US and those arming Ukraine out of immediate self-preservation. I do not think there is any contingency in which an ally tempers a US intent on seeing out the conflict. But we shall see if Russia thinks differently.
Well my whole argument is fucking immaterial.
Ukraine will be the worst casualty of the US results
The worst immediate victim. I would say the American people are the worst but when it’s suicide idk how it applies.
haha. i know.
It is happenning sir, just as we both discussed: Yesterday and the day before. Record breaking losses.
"Russian forces suffered their deadliest day since the start of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine for the second day in a row, according to figures released by Kyiv on Nov. 12. According to the General Staff of Ukraine's Armed Forces, Moscow's troops lost 1,950 men over the preceding day. This surpasses the previous record of 1,770 set just the day before."
Thank you for the analysis. It was clear Putin was working around the election. How will he utilize the North Koreans? He certainly doesn’t want another call up if he can help it.
I think the 10k troops he asked to get to Kursk is a test. He wants to see what the west will do. If they do nothing, which is expected, he will slowly keep bringing in more troops. It makes a lot of sense for the Russian state which is going through a deep recession. Extracting more workers out of the workforce is a huge problem and he cannot order a full mobilization either. He needs North Korea to supply troops. Expect more DPRK troops to come in. They will participate in full combat. Not just support roles.
I expected he would bring more troops. Even if they aren’t trained he just needs the bodies. But I can’t imagine Kim Jong Un wants to draw down his numbers very much. If nothing else they give him bragging rights to a huge army. Favors are favors. If Russia is in tough shape economically what do they have that North Korea wants? Russia’s technology is lapsing.
Tech. Money. UN Security council protection. Trade. Russia still has a ton of commodities that it can deliver. It just deepens the the relationship between two autocracies. It is such a huge opportunity for North Korea. They have a lot to gain from this.
Thanks. I thought tech would be in the mix. Would you suggest stronger economic sanctions on Russia and an angry rebuke to North Korea?
There are plenty of ways to respond to this. But whatever that may be, it has to be public and it has to be kept on an escalation ladder. A lot of things will change in the next 48 hours. So everyone is waiting, including Europe. Harris will get to decide. So, lets wait it out. We are almost there.
I am no military strategy, policy or presidency expert, but I was hoping, naively hoping, that between Nov 6 and next president’s inauguration, President Biden will step up and implement some bold decisions in supporting Ukraine with resources and untying their hands. Politically, he would have less to lose, historically he would be establishing his legacy. 🤞
This strategy is extremely dangerous for the Russians. With Kursk they have no reserves so each meter they take stretches their lines that bit further so those lines are now taught and brittle. One wrong turn by a platoon of soldiers, one missed delivery of ammo and the cracks appear. At that point Ukraine can pounce with a massive hammer and smash through the lines and roll up the lines from behind. With little depth to stop them.
With morale so low, it could turn into another rout as rumours (helpfully amplified by Ukrainian intelligence) spread like wildfire.
I now wonder if Kursk was primarily focused on removing the reserves and stretching the lines thin in other parts of the front line just for this strategy. Ukrainians knew Putin was unlikely to pull enough troops out to re-take Kursk but would take enough to stop the advanced which would be enough to thin the rest of the front lines enough for their strategy to work.
Ukrainians have probably already identified several locations that are liable to crack (and they won't be obvious to anyone else) along with ready to go feint operations.
With the reported losses above the level of replacement Russian units must be getting very very thin.
yes...