October 2024: Russian Losses Skyrocket to an All-Time High.

The trendline shows know sign of abating

In October last year, Kremlin forces lost around 22,000 soldiers. One year later, they have lost nearly twice that number — 42,000 soldiers. Despite losses continuing to soar since the start of the year, the Russian army remains on the offensive.

Two days ago, Ukrainian commander-in-chief Oleksandr Syrskyi stated that Ukrainian troops are holding back one of Russia’s most powerful offensives since the beginning of Moscow’s full-scale war.

Kyiv post citing Ukrainian officials said:

Russia continues to press forward on its offensives across the eastern front, primarily on the Toretsk, Kurakhove, and Pokrovsk axes in Donetsk Oblast, where outnumbered and outgunned Ukrainian soldiers are forced to withdraw little by little.

In recent weeks, the Ukrainian military warned that Russia is escalating its operations in southern Zaporizhzhia Oblast.

In Kharkiv Oblast, Ukrainian forces liberated and “cleared out” in mid-October the village of Kruhliakivka, which Ukraine’s military intelligence (HUR) described as important for the defense of Kupiansk.

This is happening.

Despite the losses and the arrival of North Korean troops to cover personnel shortfalls in Kursk Oblast, the Russians have committed all their reserves, or whatever they have at their disposal, to grind down the Ukrainian army in multiple sectors. They are now using civilian vehicles, including cars and trucks, to transport frontline troops. The intensity of the attacks has increased over the last week compared to earlier periods.

I am unable to locate the article, but I wrote months ago that Putin would target the latter half of October to undertake something significant, aiming to escalate even further during the post-election period in the United States.

Trump is going to lose this election and will claim he won the race. He will then revive the “Stop the Steal” program that failed him miserably in 2020.

This period, from November 5th to January 20th — the date of the election and the day the new president assumes power — is an extremely vulnerable time for the United States and its allies. Clarity will emerge once Kamala Harris becomes the President of the United States. There is no need for us to speculate about what will happen if Donald Trump wins. Instead, let us focus on Harris winning and how that will play a significant role in Putin’s calculations.

After January 20th, when Kamala Harris becomes the President and National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan is replaced by someone else, it will be an absolute disaster for Putin. Once this Biden National Security team is gone, Putin will find himself in deep trouble. To a large extent, he knows this team and has been playing them quite effectively. He has no idea what the next team will be like or what kind of president Kamala Harris will be.

If she decides to enforce sanctions more strictly and starts thinking about winning the war instead of merely prolonging it, it will be game over for Putin. There’s no way to predict that, and he is not willing to wait and find out.

If Russia can grind down the Ukrainian troops, capture more territory, and take drastic action before January 20th, it will benefit Putin in many ways. It could even fracture the alliance if Trump wins the election. If Harris wins and starts off with Ukraine on the back foot, it will limit her operational space. The allies might pressure her from different directions; one ally might say to negotiate and end the war, while another might argue against that.

So yes, if I were advising the devil, I would say that this period from November 5th to January 20th is when he should try to unleash everything at his disposal to see how far he can get. Reserves or no reserves, it won’t matter. Russia will continue to attack as much as possible. They will likely employ a sine wave strategy: pushing their resources, losing them, taking a break, and then pushing again.

They are not going to slow down in the next two months. Every recruit will be sent to the front lines. Mindless attacks will become the norm. The problem for Ukraine is that these reckless assaults will drain a lot of their energy and resources. The key for them will be to maintain an active defense across the entire frontline, including Kursk.

There is no need for any counterattacks to open a new front. I am confident that Kamala Harris will win the election, which means Putin will indeed escalate the attacks on the Ukrainian frontline. The Ukrainian army must absorb the pressure and play defense.

I don’t see Urkainian lines cracking on the older frontline. Some losses will occur, but nothing significant.

Why am I confident?

Mainly because Ukraine has refused to commit at least five fully equipped brigades to the front. The Anne de Kyiv Brigade, trained in France, is also ready. Ukraine needs to keep these brigades in reserve; now is not the time to deploy them on the battlefield. They should manage the front with their existing resources while allowing their reserve strength to grow.

Yes, it may be a bit painful, but it is the only way they can win the war. They need to launch a significant counterattack only after their reserve combat power increases sharply. They are not there yet.

My requirement would be atleast 10 fully equipped brigades.