I really hope you are right!! Nothing like Ukrainian ingenuity. Knowing them, they will probably improve the product. Necessity is the mother of not only invention but production and the innovation. Slava Ukraine!!
“So if he starts to believe Putin is a loser—or even worse, if he thinks the probability of Putin losing has crossed the 50% mark (and it has)—then he’s going to think very hard about tying his future to a sinking regime.”
You’re probably right Shankar, but Trump won’t give up on Putin without a fight. He just gave Putin another lifeline by lifting sanctions on their banks that finance the war. He refused to add sanctions after saying repeatedly that if Putin doesn’t make a deal he would; every two weeks or so, and then every two weeks would come and go.
As for offensive operations? I just read (Lev Parnas’s) Substack yesterday in which he details some operations in the last week (details below):
1. Kamikaze drone strike on Kupol — 1,300 km deep inside Russia—obliterating the Kupol Electromechanical Plant in Izhevsk, Udmurtia — a key facility that produces air-defense systems and surveillance drones for Russia’s war machine.
2. Storm Shadow strike on Russia’s 8th Combined Arms Army HQ in Donetsk—In occupied Donetsk, Ukrainian forces launched British-made Storm Shadow cruise missiles and targeted the heart of Russia’s military command. The headquarters of the 8th Combined Arms Army — responsible for commanding major operations in Donbas — was leveled.
3. Bober drone hits in occupied Crimea—Ukraine’s HUR (military intelligence) deployed domestically produced UJ-26 “Bober” drones and scored multiple direct hits on a Russian Pantsir-S1 air-defense system and an SU-30 fighter jet, radar systems and a Russian Pantsir-S1 air-defense system.
Therefore, it sounds like Ukraine is going on the offensive when the opportunities arise, and at worst are keeping the Russian’s dazed and confused!
That said, the Ukrainian’s have proven themselves to be quite the creative genius’s utilizing asymmetrical warfare, and is making Putin’s life a living hell! And it will only get worse as the weeks and months pass (hopefully)! IMHO…:)
Shankar, can you give us your take on the long-range drone strikes Ukraine just accomplished? I've seen very little in legacy media. Is it significant, or just a minor accomplishment?
It wasn't just drones. Last week Ukraine launched its largest cruise missiles attack ever. I wait for a few days to collect additional data before writing. So there will always be a delay.
This is a great analysis, as always, and it gives me hope. Just curious about the rumours about Putin having something over Trump that is preventing him from imposing sanctions. Do you think that might be the case? If so, it would be very difficult for Trump to abandon Russia, even if he starts to believe Putin is a loser.
We are talking about a man who lost the election and then convinced millions of Americans that he won. Even if there is a clear video clip of something wrong do you think Trump is going to be worried. Fake news is what he will say and his crowd will go. Yes sir.
He is unfortunately still seen by too many Americans as the answer to the corrupt swamp in Washington for reasons I can’t fathom at all. Whatever alligators lived in that swamp pre-Trump they’ve been replaced by a more toxic and corrupt species. His supporters are low data voters all siloed within the right wing media circus. He also has a global wish list of a tri-polar world. US/Russia/China. Relying for anything useful (to Ukraine) from Trump is folly.
Very interesting. I feel much better after reading your article. I am absolutely persuaded by your two main points—Trump always wants the win, and offense is essential. I hope in addition there will be an outcry about the administration not sending promised munitions despite money being allocated for that purpose.
Obviously Ukraine is not the only location of our stupidity. But knowing the country means I can have at least some conception of the impact of the loss of buildings—churches, schools, theatres, shops. I can only imagine the horror of being in a shelter night after night as Putin sends wave after wave of bombs with everyone painfully aware that he is aiming for civilian targets.
Sorry if I'm late to the party, but are there pro Russia generals inside the Pentagon? Why would these guys, and the Biden administration, not want Ukraine to do well? Do they want to preserve the Putin regime, and if so why?
In their view Russia without Putin is too dangerous than Russia with Putin. We are talking about a group that thought the Afgan army will hold against the Taliban. This is the same group that thought syria is unwinnable. Let us not even talk about Iraq .
that's interesting. Russia without Putin is more dangerous? Is it a "devil you know" kind of thing? I was surprised how many establishment Democrats were freaking out over us bombing Fordow. Sure it's risky but if it weakens the regime there, that is good right? Hard to imagine a worse government for the Iranian people, and the world, than what is currently in place. The Iranians and the Russians have been cursed with horrible leaders - why would we want to prop them up in any way?
Every military action must be strategic at dome level. Israel's attack clearly was and completely consistent with the goal of preventing hostile neighbors from attaining the a ility to drop a nuke or three on Israel.
TACO Don's rah-rah-we're-great tantrum? Zero strategy, 100% optics. The only way to close Fordo is by sacrificing a few thousand soldiers in-country. Israel won't send the IDF on a suicide mission. Nor will TD
Only when Ukraine could impose a significant cost on the Russian black sea fleet, a scale back and tacit or direct restraining on the attack of port and grain infrastructure happened.
Only when Russia felt a pressure on energy infrastructure, a scale back of attack on Ukrainian energy was possible.
Only when Ukraine can inflict a significant cost as well whatever be it with aerial offence. Then we can expect a scale back of operations. The best air defence is more capabilities and scaled old and new capabilities.
"Fighter jets, long-range missiles, deep strike capabilities—these are the tools that determine outcomes. Ukraine and its European allies need to invest far more energy, resources, and political capital into scaling offensive power. That’s what bends the battlefield."
I don't think Trump will ever walk away from Putin. He may cosplay at it as he did recently, but Putin's hold over him is beyond reason. Trump is clearly afraid of Putin. Truth is buried in the 1980s. We may never know why.
And quietly pressuring Raytheon to begin manufacturing the Patriot interceptors in Europe.
I still would place a bet that Ukraine has designed and is testing a Patriot like interceptor that can be fired from the Patriot batteries.
I really hope you are right!! Nothing like Ukrainian ingenuity. Knowing them, they will probably improve the product. Necessity is the mother of not only invention but production and the innovation. Slava Ukraine!!
“So if he starts to believe Putin is a loser—or even worse, if he thinks the probability of Putin losing has crossed the 50% mark (and it has)—then he’s going to think very hard about tying his future to a sinking regime.”
You’re probably right Shankar, but Trump won’t give up on Putin without a fight. He just gave Putin another lifeline by lifting sanctions on their banks that finance the war. He refused to add sanctions after saying repeatedly that if Putin doesn’t make a deal he would; every two weeks or so, and then every two weeks would come and go.
As for offensive operations? I just read (Lev Parnas’s) Substack yesterday in which he details some operations in the last week (details below):
1. Kamikaze drone strike on Kupol — 1,300 km deep inside Russia—obliterating the Kupol Electromechanical Plant in Izhevsk, Udmurtia — a key facility that produces air-defense systems and surveillance drones for Russia’s war machine.
2. Storm Shadow strike on Russia’s 8th Combined Arms Army HQ in Donetsk—In occupied Donetsk, Ukrainian forces launched British-made Storm Shadow cruise missiles and targeted the heart of Russia’s military command. The headquarters of the 8th Combined Arms Army — responsible for commanding major operations in Donbas — was leveled.
3. Bober drone hits in occupied Crimea—Ukraine’s HUR (military intelligence) deployed domestically produced UJ-26 “Bober” drones and scored multiple direct hits on a Russian Pantsir-S1 air-defense system and an SU-30 fighter jet, radar systems and a Russian Pantsir-S1 air-defense system.
Therefore, it sounds like Ukraine is going on the offensive when the opportunities arise, and at worst are keeping the Russian’s dazed and confused!
That said, the Ukrainian’s have proven themselves to be quite the creative genius’s utilizing asymmetrical warfare, and is making Putin’s life a living hell! And it will only get worse as the weeks and months pass (hopefully)! IMHO…:)
Yes💪🏼
Shankar, can you give us your take on the long-range drone strikes Ukraine just accomplished? I've seen very little in legacy media. Is it significant, or just a minor accomplishment?
It wasn't just drones. Last week Ukraine launched its largest cruise missiles attack ever. I wait for a few days to collect additional data before writing. So there will always be a delay.
Significant.
Will deliver tmrw.
Don't say I never told you so about Donnie Two Weeks. But as for the rest, Bend, baby bend.
This is a great analysis, as always, and it gives me hope. Just curious about the rumours about Putin having something over Trump that is preventing him from imposing sanctions. Do you think that might be the case? If so, it would be very difficult for Trump to abandon Russia, even if he starts to believe Putin is a loser.
We are talking about a man who lost the election and then convinced millions of Americans that he won. Even if there is a clear video clip of something wrong do you think Trump is going to be worried. Fake news is what he will say and his crowd will go. Yes sir.
Excellent points. He is the master of spin and calling fake news. Usually when he calls it, it's true.
He is unfortunately still seen by too many Americans as the answer to the corrupt swamp in Washington for reasons I can’t fathom at all. Whatever alligators lived in that swamp pre-Trump they’ve been replaced by a more toxic and corrupt species. His supporters are low data voters all siloed within the right wing media circus. He also has a global wish list of a tri-polar world. US/Russia/China. Relying for anything useful (to Ukraine) from Trump is folly.
Thank you! I share your Substack with as many people as possible. Trying to get you above 10,000!
Me too!
Very interesting. I feel much better after reading your article. I am absolutely persuaded by your two main points—Trump always wants the win, and offense is essential. I hope in addition there will be an outcry about the administration not sending promised munitions despite money being allocated for that purpose.
Obviously Ukraine is not the only location of our stupidity. But knowing the country means I can have at least some conception of the impact of the loss of buildings—churches, schools, theatres, shops. I can only imagine the horror of being in a shelter night after night as Putin sends wave after wave of bombs with everyone painfully aware that he is aiming for civilian targets.
Sorry if I'm late to the party, but are there pro Russia generals inside the Pentagon? Why would these guys, and the Biden administration, not want Ukraine to do well? Do they want to preserve the Putin regime, and if so why?
In their view Russia without Putin is too dangerous than Russia with Putin. We are talking about a group that thought the Afgan army will hold against the Taliban. This is the same group that thought syria is unwinnable. Let us not even talk about Iraq .
that's interesting. Russia without Putin is more dangerous? Is it a "devil you know" kind of thing? I was surprised how many establishment Democrats were freaking out over us bombing Fordow. Sure it's risky but if it weakens the regime there, that is good right? Hard to imagine a worse government for the Iranian people, and the world, than what is currently in place. The Iranians and the Russians have been cursed with horrible leaders - why would we want to prop them up in any way?
Every military action must be strategic at dome level. Israel's attack clearly was and completely consistent with the goal of preventing hostile neighbors from attaining the a ility to drop a nuke or three on Israel.
TACO Don's rah-rah-we're-great tantrum? Zero strategy, 100% optics. The only way to close Fordo is by sacrificing a few thousand soldiers in-country. Israel won't send the IDF on a suicide mission. Nor will TD
Who ARE the pro-Putins, do we know? And what is their motive? Apart from Witkoff & Gabbart who fell for Putin’s personal charm.
Only when Ukraine could impose a significant cost on the Russian black sea fleet, a scale back and tacit or direct restraining on the attack of port and grain infrastructure happened.
Only when Russia felt a pressure on energy infrastructure, a scale back of attack on Ukrainian energy was possible.
Only when Ukraine can inflict a significant cost as well whatever be it with aerial offence. Then we can expect a scale back of operations. The best air defence is more capabilities and scaled old and new capabilities.
Any thoughts on this ?
"Fighter jets, long-range missiles, deep strike capabilities—these are the tools that determine outcomes. Ukraine and its European allies need to invest far more energy, resources, and political capital into scaling offensive power. That’s what bends the battlefield."
Exactly!
Slava Ukraini!
things will have to be very bad for putin before the taco guy to let go of him
Yes....
Thank you!
I don't think Trump will ever walk away from Putin. He may cosplay at it as he did recently, but Putin's hold over him is beyond reason. Trump is clearly afraid of Putin. Truth is buried in the 1980s. We may never know why.
I'm thinking that the FSB had a copy of the Epstein files long before the public was even aware of their existence.