Trump’s drift toward Putin isn’t chaotic—it’s a choreographed decoupling from Ukraine. The solution now lies in Europe’s hands, and it starts with fighter jets.
I think Europe understands the consequences of Trump’s actions; however, I believe they are biding their time (without pissing off the petulant man/child wannabe King), to decouple economically from the US as much as possible, while shoring up Europes defenses against glaring vulnerabilities to their collective defense.
Furthermore, I agree they are overly cautious, but no one can claim they haven’t been moving in the right direction.
My biggest concern is that Trump will use the Israeli/Iran escalation to stop arming Ukraine. I understand Trump is telegraphing his policies, to slowly stop supporting Ukraine against his MASTER, but this will be escalated quickly should all hell break loose trying to rid Iran of any nuclear capabilities Iran has left.
Bottom line, forget the $45-60 oil cap, we may see oil prices climb exponentially in the next few weeks. And if an escalation occurs, what’s next? We can’t achieve Israel’s goals without either boots on the ground, or regime change, and I don’t see any political opposition capable of overthrowing the current regime. The MEK (People's Mojahedin Organization of Iran) doesn’t have the manpower or support (they supported Iraq during the Iran/Iraq War), and the Shah’s son, Reza Pahlavi, doesn’t have the support or a government in exile to take control; just Israel’s support.
Moreover, this leaves me with one question; will Trump ultimately cave to Israel’s demands and support an escalation and bombing of Fordo and Natanz?
My gut says Trump is a coward and will chicken out; he won’t risk a drawn out war or failure. However, Rubio has gutted our embassies around the globe, and the State Department in general, so I’m not sure what voices for peace are left in this administration to convince Trump that this is a fool’s errand and most likely, an exercise in futility.
Moreover, It appears most of the players left standing are war hawks, so this is quite the conundrum; to say the least! And should Israel attack, Iran will do everything to close the Straight of Hormuz, choking off a good portion of the world’s oil supply, sending oil prices skyrocketing. IMHO…:)
I think the U.S. will deliver the bunker bombs. I doubt that action will have much impact on Ukraine beyond what we already see. Iran is already being ripped apart, I don't see how destroying the nuke facilities impacts Hormuz incentive.
I've had a contrarian position on Iran nukes. Although I see Iran as incredibly menacing and destructive, I thought Iran having a nuke would have a net positive impact on stability. The sooner the better in fact. Russia's successful use of nuclear blackmail causes me to reconsider.
If you agree with the proposition that Iran must not have a nuke then blasting Fordo makes sense. I supported the previous nuke agreement with Iran, but it was hardly a satisfying resolution.
I don’t disagree that Iran shouldn’t have nukes, but no one believes they will go nuclear; specifically because if they do, then it will be only a matter of time before The Saudi’s and UAE go nuclear as well, and no one benefits in that situation, including Iran.
The only country that truly believes Iran will go nuclear is Netanyahu, and he’s been saying it since 2005; “they are close to 60-90% enrichment and will have a weapon in months!” He says the same thing every two year or so.
My point is that Iran is stronger than Iraq, even in this weakened state, and how’d that work out for America?
Count me as a second person who believes Iran would want a nuke,
Yes Netanyahu believes Iran wants a bomb. He also believes they might use it.
THe attack that Israel is staging today would become unlikely (or impossible) if Iran had a nuke. That's why I preferred that Iran just get the nuke and end the threat of conventional war. (Of course "conventional" has lost meaning with all the hybrid and biological warfare options. But the point remains.)
Agreed, should Iran get a weapon it is a war deterrent, but it’s still a risky operation, and with the clowns in charge, I have little confidence they will achiever their desired goals without major consequences to the worlds economies.
By the way, US intelligence doesn’t believe Iran is looking to go nuclear…:)
On the face of it a nuclear agreement makes sense, but I don't trust the current Iranian government any more than I trust the Russians to live up to any treaties. According to the iaea, hey have already stockpiled enough material for a bomb which is their goal, so I would agree with using the bunker bombs. I don't want to stand around waiting to see what they'll do because it will be too late when we find out
I don't see any attractive option. The argument against the bunker bombs is they won't work well or work for long. Nothing will work well or long. From Iran's perspective, why would they trust any agreement when the last one was abrogated?
I got nothing. I can't criticize any approach, they all are similarly flawed.
A very important if alarming article. I am hoping that after Trump’s performance at the G7 the EU will see how drastic things really are. And how little they can trust Trump.
Is it significant that the Europeans are still pushing for tightening the sanctions screws? I mean, I’m sure that no-one (who was in way reasonably well-informed) expected Trump to agree to lowering the oil price cap—but maybe pushing for that to some extent —enough to make Trump think that he truly achieved something for Putin by preventing that from happening— may have helped prevent Trump from completely going into the other direction (yet)?
In my view that is the right way but, we cannot dismiss the need for ultimate counter measure sanctions against the USA. Nobody wants that but we have to accept that Trump is increasingly shifting the USA to back Russia in opposition to Ukraine. If he also attacks Iran, it will get huge opposition within the security council of the UN where none of his actions can be justified. His performance and running away from G7 was already unacceptable and the others present know they must go forward quietly without the USA.
So many truths in each response. It is mind-boggling! You say yes that’s true on the one hand and then someone else says something else that you must consider on the other hand —makes a person feel like a wasp captured in a jar and shaken. I have been feeling that way lately
Will someone please start screaming at the top of their lungs that perhaps, perhaps more than perhaps, this Whole B2 bomber crisis is a distraction from what's happening in Ukraine?
We will have to wait for one more week to get a better idea on how the Iran Israel war develops. Still a little early and still not clear what their end game is.
R U kidding? Thought you had a thru line to the Oracle of Delphi. Looking forward to your thoughts when the time is right. I appreciate you not simply shooting at the hip, as I tend to do when rattled. But at least, being me, people won't take it as seriously!
Nope. I dont think neither the US nor Israel have a fully developed end game in place. They most probably did not expect to establish air dominance this early. That changes a lot of things. With power comes responsbility. So far IDF has been methodical and did not over do. Now we need to see if that holds.
When Trump gets away from Putin, his handlers show him that Putin has betrayed him multiple times, which makes him angry. But when he talks to Putin, he wins him over with cheap flattery.
Trump’s back-and-forth on Iran shows not any sort of plan, but rather which one of his handlers talked to him last. Same on immigration.
This is one of the best essays I've read on substack in some time. We are at a very dangerous moment. Europeans (and myself) have been slow to acknowledge Trump's successful coordination with Putin. Frankly, the dystopian duo remains one step ahead.
My own hobbyhorse is the urgency of channeling Russian assets towards Ukraine's defense industry. I think we are at now-or-never moment. Europe is not willing to adequately fund Ukraine out of their own treasuries. France, Italy, Britain, Spain etc. are firmly dug in on butter over guns. The better hope is that they move on assets. Timothy Ash nails it:
Aren’t you placing too much emphasis on Trump saying he was going to put sanctions on Russia in two weeks?
That was never going to happen. Trump saying Putin has gone crazy was just something to temporarily reduce pressure and create false hope for the Europeans.
The good news is that the longer trend is Trump being favorable towards Putin (since at least 2018 Helsinki conference and probably since he got Russian money after the financial crisis), but restrained to some extent by forces in the US government, defense industries, public opinion, and reality.
So while Europe must prepare and act as if there is no help coming from the U.S. I don’t think the situation has changed since January.
But yeah, deliver the jets to Ukraine ASAP. And prepare to build more of your own, and in higher qualities.
That is only one signal. The fact that he did not do and went great lengths to push in the other direction means, he is moving in the opposite direction. That means, what will he try to do next? He is going to try to help Putin. He is probably looking for more angles to get that done now. For now he is trying to mess up the western response. It will slowly escalate. It is better to prepare for it. Preparing for it will be the best way to push him off this current path
It's not realistic the Europeans would lower the price cap without the US, especially when oil prices are climbing as a result of the Isreal/Iran war.
With two price caps, there'd be rival demands on the buyers of Russian oil - they'd be forced to comply with either Europe's or America's cap.
I'm not saying either Europe or America would win that fight outright, because I don't know who the buyers (India, amongst other nations) would cave to.
I am saying that the West cannot afford such infighting. It would offer Putin an opening to divide the West even further. And an opening to win Caving Don over to his side even further.
The sad truth is that Caving Don would regard such a fight as a must-win. I wouldn't be surprised if he warned countries like India that there'd be a price if they complied with European demands.
In short, this is not the time to go against Caving Don, even though another unified lower price cap could actually end the war in the relatively short term.
Europe needs time. And in time it's willing - it must - confront Caving Don head on. But not now, and not over the lowering of the price cap, a cap - Ursula is right - that continues to hurt Putin, even though the oil price could go over the roof if Iran decides to block the Strait of Hormuz.
Let's be thankful, for now, that Caving Don doesn't want to lift the current cap. Because he'll propose to do so in a couple of weeks...
Yep. He must have thought about it: Let's be thankful, for now, that Caving Don doesn't want to lift the current cap. Because he'll propose to do so in a couple of weeks...
I'm afraid this could end up in the worst of all places - Caving Don giving military aid to Russia. The only thing holding Caving Don back is getting away with it.
Because in his heart of hearts, Caving Don already craves the compliments he'd receive from his Kremlin master...
He would need Congress’s approval to do so; and that would be a difficult ask, not impossible given the current state of affairs; but highly unlikely Congress would approve such a request. Only full blown MAGA would support such a move, and they are only 30-35% of the base.
Agreed, but it would require the use of almost all the political capital he has left, at a time when his polling numbers are collapsing and we’re seeing a mini civil war take shape of Israel/Iran within the MAGA movement.
I’m not suggesting you’re wrong, but it would be a major challenge even for Trump. That said, let’s hope you’re wrong!…:)
The optics would be terrible for Trump, rightfully so. Americans have considered Russia to be the enemy for over 70 years. Even turning gradually would be very risky.
Great analogy to the shop and analysis of the psychology behind the hesitations to take firmer actions. It is a huge house of cards, where every action of every player matters. The People do not stand with maga and mega, as shown by the protests. But until we can turn things around, Canada, UK and Europe need to grab the reins more tightly.
The loss of the lower oil cap is a blow. I agree TACO is drifting closer to Putin’s orbit. He’s deteriorating mentally. Easy pickings for the ex FSB chief.
Let Europe make a decisive stand with jets and air power.
magas are too chickenshit to remove him. They are part of the cult. If it does happen President Vance will unite the whole country with everyone hating him. They may remove him out of spite.
I think Europe understands the consequences of Trump’s actions; however, I believe they are biding their time (without pissing off the petulant man/child wannabe King), to decouple economically from the US as much as possible, while shoring up Europes defenses against glaring vulnerabilities to their collective defense.
Furthermore, I agree they are overly cautious, but no one can claim they haven’t been moving in the right direction.
My biggest concern is that Trump will use the Israeli/Iran escalation to stop arming Ukraine. I understand Trump is telegraphing his policies, to slowly stop supporting Ukraine against his MASTER, but this will be escalated quickly should all hell break loose trying to rid Iran of any nuclear capabilities Iran has left.
Bottom line, forget the $45-60 oil cap, we may see oil prices climb exponentially in the next few weeks. And if an escalation occurs, what’s next? We can’t achieve Israel’s goals without either boots on the ground, or regime change, and I don’t see any political opposition capable of overthrowing the current regime. The MEK (People's Mojahedin Organization of Iran) doesn’t have the manpower or support (they supported Iraq during the Iran/Iraq War), and the Shah’s son, Reza Pahlavi, doesn’t have the support or a government in exile to take control; just Israel’s support.
Moreover, this leaves me with one question; will Trump ultimately cave to Israel’s demands and support an escalation and bombing of Fordo and Natanz?
My gut says Trump is a coward and will chicken out; he won’t risk a drawn out war or failure. However, Rubio has gutted our embassies around the globe, and the State Department in general, so I’m not sure what voices for peace are left in this administration to convince Trump that this is a fool’s errand and most likely, an exercise in futility.
Moreover, It appears most of the players left standing are war hawks, so this is quite the conundrum; to say the least! And should Israel attack, Iran will do everything to close the Straight of Hormuz, choking off a good portion of the world’s oil supply, sending oil prices skyrocketing. IMHO…:)
I think the U.S. will deliver the bunker bombs. I doubt that action will have much impact on Ukraine beyond what we already see. Iran is already being ripped apart, I don't see how destroying the nuke facilities impacts Hormuz incentive.
I've had a contrarian position on Iran nukes. Although I see Iran as incredibly menacing and destructive, I thought Iran having a nuke would have a net positive impact on stability. The sooner the better in fact. Russia's successful use of nuclear blackmail causes me to reconsider.
If you agree with the proposition that Iran must not have a nuke then blasting Fordo makes sense. I supported the previous nuke agreement with Iran, but it was hardly a satisfying resolution.
I don’t disagree that Iran shouldn’t have nukes, but no one believes they will go nuclear; specifically because if they do, then it will be only a matter of time before The Saudi’s and UAE go nuclear as well, and no one benefits in that situation, including Iran.
The only country that truly believes Iran will go nuclear is Netanyahu, and he’s been saying it since 2005; “they are close to 60-90% enrichment and will have a weapon in months!” He says the same thing every two year or so.
My point is that Iran is stronger than Iraq, even in this weakened state, and how’d that work out for America?
Count me as a second person who believes Iran would want a nuke,
Yes Netanyahu believes Iran wants a bomb. He also believes they might use it.
THe attack that Israel is staging today would become unlikely (or impossible) if Iran had a nuke. That's why I preferred that Iran just get the nuke and end the threat of conventional war. (Of course "conventional" has lost meaning with all the hybrid and biological warfare options. But the point remains.)
The brutal Iranian regime needs to go, not get access to nuclear weapons!
Agreed, should Iran get a weapon it is a war deterrent, but it’s still a risky operation, and with the clowns in charge, I have little confidence they will achiever their desired goals without major consequences to the worlds economies.
By the way, US intelligence doesn’t believe Iran is looking to go nuclear…:)
On the face of it a nuclear agreement makes sense, but I don't trust the current Iranian government any more than I trust the Russians to live up to any treaties. According to the iaea, hey have already stockpiled enough material for a bomb which is their goal, so I would agree with using the bunker bombs. I don't want to stand around waiting to see what they'll do because it will be too late when we find out
I don't see any attractive option. The argument against the bunker bombs is they won't work well or work for long. Nothing will work well or long. From Iran's perspective, why would they trust any agreement when the last one was abrogated?
I got nothing. I can't criticize any approach, they all are similarly flawed.
Really appreciated the analogy and great description of the mentorship with Putin over Trump. It's stomach-turning!!
I’d call it grooming a ready puppet, hardly mentoring given Putin seeks to subvert, not empower!
A very important if alarming article. I am hoping that after Trump’s performance at the G7 the EU will see how drastic things really are. And how little they can trust Trump.
… And this is exactly what I fear!
Is it significant that the Europeans are still pushing for tightening the sanctions screws? I mean, I’m sure that no-one (who was in way reasonably well-informed) expected Trump to agree to lowering the oil price cap—but maybe pushing for that to some extent —enough to make Trump think that he truly achieved something for Putin by preventing that from happening— may have helped prevent Trump from completely going into the other direction (yet)?
If Trump does not feel the pressure to impose sanctions on Russia, he will try to do the opposite.
In my view that is the right way but, we cannot dismiss the need for ultimate counter measure sanctions against the USA. Nobody wants that but we have to accept that Trump is increasingly shifting the USA to back Russia in opposition to Ukraine. If he also attacks Iran, it will get huge opposition within the security council of the UN where none of his actions can be justified. His performance and running away from G7 was already unacceptable and the others present know they must go forward quietly without the USA.
So many truths in each response. It is mind-boggling! You say yes that’s true on the one hand and then someone else says something else that you must consider on the other hand —makes a person feel like a wasp captured in a jar and shaken. I have been feeling that way lately
That’s an intended artefact of these times bc autocrats seek, not the truth, but confusion , what you’re experiencing as the ‘wasp effect’!
Yes counter measures against the USA will become essential
Will someone please start screaming at the top of their lungs that perhaps, perhaps more than perhaps, this Whole B2 bomber crisis is a distraction from what's happening in Ukraine?
We will have to wait for one more week to get a better idea on how the Iran Israel war develops. Still a little early and still not clear what their end game is.
R U kidding? Thought you had a thru line to the Oracle of Delphi. Looking forward to your thoughts when the time is right. I appreciate you not simply shooting at the hip, as I tend to do when rattled. But at least, being me, people won't take it as seriously!
Nope. I dont think neither the US nor Israel have a fully developed end game in place. They most probably did not expect to establish air dominance this early. That changes a lot of things. With power comes responsbility. So far IDF has been methodical and did not over do. Now we need to see if that holds.
Trump is no longer mentally competent.
When Trump gets away from Putin, his handlers show him that Putin has betrayed him multiple times, which makes him angry. But when he talks to Putin, he wins him over with cheap flattery.
Trump’s back-and-forth on Iran shows not any sort of plan, but rather which one of his handlers talked to him last. Same on immigration.
This is one of the best essays I've read on substack in some time. We are at a very dangerous moment. Europeans (and myself) have been slow to acknowledge Trump's successful coordination with Putin. Frankly, the dystopian duo remains one step ahead.
My own hobbyhorse is the urgency of channeling Russian assets towards Ukraine's defense industry. I think we are at now-or-never moment. Europe is not willing to adequately fund Ukraine out of their own treasuries. France, Italy, Britain, Spain etc. are firmly dug in on butter over guns. The better hope is that they move on assets. Timothy Ash nails it:
https://substack.com/history/post/166144817
Excellent Essay, Thank you
Aren’t you placing too much emphasis on Trump saying he was going to put sanctions on Russia in two weeks?
That was never going to happen. Trump saying Putin has gone crazy was just something to temporarily reduce pressure and create false hope for the Europeans.
The good news is that the longer trend is Trump being favorable towards Putin (since at least 2018 Helsinki conference and probably since he got Russian money after the financial crisis), but restrained to some extent by forces in the US government, defense industries, public opinion, and reality.
So while Europe must prepare and act as if there is no help coming from the U.S. I don’t think the situation has changed since January.
But yeah, deliver the jets to Ukraine ASAP. And prepare to build more of your own, and in higher qualities.
That is only one signal. The fact that he did not do and went great lengths to push in the other direction means, he is moving in the opposite direction. That means, what will he try to do next? He is going to try to help Putin. He is probably looking for more angles to get that done now. For now he is trying to mess up the western response. It will slowly escalate. It is better to prepare for it. Preparing for it will be the best way to push him off this current path
It's not realistic the Europeans would lower the price cap without the US, especially when oil prices are climbing as a result of the Isreal/Iran war.
With two price caps, there'd be rival demands on the buyers of Russian oil - they'd be forced to comply with either Europe's or America's cap.
I'm not saying either Europe or America would win that fight outright, because I don't know who the buyers (India, amongst other nations) would cave to.
I am saying that the West cannot afford such infighting. It would offer Putin an opening to divide the West even further. And an opening to win Caving Don over to his side even further.
The sad truth is that Caving Don would regard such a fight as a must-win. I wouldn't be surprised if he warned countries like India that there'd be a price if they complied with European demands.
In short, this is not the time to go against Caving Don, even though another unified lower price cap could actually end the war in the relatively short term.
Europe needs time. And in time it's willing - it must - confront Caving Don head on. But not now, and not over the lowering of the price cap, a cap - Ursula is right - that continues to hurt Putin, even though the oil price could go over the roof if Iran decides to block the Strait of Hormuz.
Let's be thankful, for now, that Caving Don doesn't want to lift the current cap. Because he'll propose to do so in a couple of weeks...
Yep. He must have thought about it: Let's be thankful, for now, that Caving Don doesn't want to lift the current cap. Because he'll propose to do so in a couple of weeks...
I'm afraid this could end up in the worst of all places - Caving Don giving military aid to Russia. The only thing holding Caving Don back is getting away with it.
Because in his heart of hearts, Caving Don already craves the compliments he'd receive from his Kremlin master...
He would need Congress’s approval to do so; and that would be a difficult ask, not impossible given the current state of affairs; but highly unlikely Congress would approve such a request. Only full blown MAGA would support such a move, and they are only 30-35% of the base.
True, of course. But Caving Don is moving so fast to Putin's corner even further that it's the logical outcome.
And given that Congress is doing his bidding no matter what he wants...
Agreed, but it would require the use of almost all the political capital he has left, at a time when his polling numbers are collapsing and we’re seeing a mini civil war take shape of Israel/Iran within the MAGA movement.
I’m not suggesting you’re wrong, but it would be a major challenge even for Trump. That said, let’s hope you’re wrong!…:)
The optics would be terrible for Trump, rightfully so. Americans have considered Russia to be the enemy for over 70 years. Even turning gradually would be very risky.
Great analogy to the shop and analysis of the psychology behind the hesitations to take firmer actions. It is a huge house of cards, where every action of every player matters. The People do not stand with maga and mega, as shown by the protests. But until we can turn things around, Canada, UK and Europe need to grab the reins more tightly.
The loss of the lower oil cap is a blow. I agree TACO is drifting closer to Putin’s orbit. He’s deteriorating mentally. Easy pickings for the ex FSB chief.
Let Europe make a decisive stand with jets and air power.
Trump is deteriorating so fast that he’ll have to be removed soon. Which means everyone will be dealing with President Thiel/Vance.
magas are too chickenshit to remove him. They are part of the cult. If it does happen President Vance will unite the whole country with everyone hating him. They may remove him out of spite.