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Robert Jaffee's avatar

I think Europe understands the consequences of Trump’s actions; however, I believe they are biding their time (without pissing off the petulant man/child wannabe King), to decouple economically from the US as much as possible, while shoring up Europes defenses against glaring vulnerabilities to their collective defense.

Furthermore, I agree they are overly cautious, but no one can claim they haven’t been moving in the right direction.

My biggest concern is that Trump will use the Israeli/Iran escalation to stop arming Ukraine. I understand Trump is telegraphing his policies, to slowly stop supporting Ukraine against his MASTER, but this will be escalated quickly should all hell break loose trying to rid Iran of any nuclear capabilities Iran has left.

Bottom line, forget the $45-60 oil cap, we may see oil prices climb exponentially in the next few weeks. And if an escalation occurs, what’s next? We can’t achieve Israel’s goals without either boots on the ground, or regime change, and I don’t see any political opposition capable of overthrowing the current regime. The MEK (People's Mojahedin Organization of Iran) doesn’t have the manpower or support (they supported Iraq during the Iran/Iraq War), and the Shah’s son, Reza Pahlavi, doesn’t have the support or a government in exile to take control; just Israel’s support.

Moreover, this leaves me with one question; will Trump ultimately cave to Israel’s demands and support an escalation and bombing of Fordo and Natanz?

My gut says Trump is a coward and will chicken out; he won’t risk a drawn out war or failure. However, Rubio has gutted our embassies around the globe, and the State Department in general, so I’m not sure what voices for peace are left in this administration to convince Trump that this is a fool’s errand and most likely, an exercise in futility.

Moreover, It appears most of the players left standing are war hawks, so this is quite the conundrum; to say the least! And should Israel attack, Iran will do everything to close the Straight of Hormuz, choking off a good portion of the world’s oil supply, sending oil prices skyrocketing. IMHO…:)

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M-Pathy77's avatar

Really appreciated the analogy and great description of the mentorship with Putin over Trump. It's stomach-turning!!

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