All good AB. July 11th to August 2. Caine is almost into the safety zone. But he needs one more. I don't want to write about it yet. Not safe. Too many think tanks reading my stories. Let him do it. Then I will cover it. For now, we are in a good space with respect to Ukraine.
He can't end the war that easily. There will be a coup. He needs fear us response more than he fears an internal revolt by the oligarchs and FSB. That will only happen after he loses a few bearings. That needs more work. Think five to seven circles. We are in the first circle.
That would depend on exactly what the fear consisted of.
I can understand the decision made by Trumman and his advisors in August of 1945. The terrible cost of invading the Japanese home islands, given what we knew of their fanatical determination, was something no American president would have willingly contemplated if he had an alternative. But Truman had no concrete understanding of what he was unleashing. No one really did. Even Oppenheimer and his famous quote about being Death, the Destroyer of worlds could not be certain.
Now we can be, even though only a very few who have ever actually experienced nuclear war remain to tell us. Add to that the minimal amount of time any leader would have to make such an unimaginable decision in reaction, and you have a recipe for something beyond human understanding.
We were doing the wisest thing we could to contain Putin’s aggression under Biden. No American lives lost while costing Putin a human toll he could not sustain.
Rolling the dice with Armageddon is not the answer.
Well, well, well. Those two nuclear submarines had me up worrying last night. I forgot that Trump really is listening to someone who seems to know precisely what he is doing. I am, of course, not happy that nukes are under consideration anywhere in the world. But prevention is a good thing. If Moscow shoots off its mouth, we have no choice but to listen and respond accordingly.
I do not trust Trump to have the necessary patience to carry out a successful mission. I am, however, learning to trust General Caine. Putin will become increasingly desperate as things grow worse for him militarily. But help from China and North Korea might cause him to make some foolish moves. Now he is in check.
Thank you for this marvelously clear and important article. I absolutely rely on you to give me realistic insights into our bellicose world.
I would give zero credit for anything to trump here, his brain is decaying at a rapid clip, he couldn't think his way out of a wet paper sack if someone ripped it for him. I doubt he wrote that post either, he is being "managed" in so far as that's possible, and someone else is doing the strategizing. If it were down to him, the statements would be much less measured, and more inflammatory, it's simply what he IS.
Yes. Also, Trump posts that have actually been typed by Trump himself have typos, ALL-CAPS words, ungrammatically-placed "quotation marks", and a degree of general incoherence that is missing here.
I wouldn't worry about those subs being... repositioned. Trident missile subs can hit anywhere on the globe from most anywhere. The subs he (allegedly) repositioned may be attack subs, which generally aren't equipped with nuclear missiles.
Shades of Cold War posturing! Why don't I feel better knowing this...with Trump's finger on the nuclear button and Putin's hold on power wavering? What could possibly go wrong?
And this has nothing to do with posturing. That is a very different area. This is calm escalation and we have never been inside this type of doctrine. Ever.
Maybe, but trying it out for the first time with Trump and Putin performing a "Pas de Deux" does not make for a "calming effect". Teddy Rooseveldt is noted for quoting a West African proverb: ‘Speak softly and carry a big stick; you will go far.’. We seem to have forgotten the "softly" part.
Remember the conversation we had about Patriot air defense for Ukraine. How many times did I write that Germany will send two units within three months? Yesterday, Germany confirmed that it has delivered two units already.
It is there in Ukraine as we speak.
I rest my case here.
I dont find answers and then put them in place. When I say things I also say why. And how I reach those conclusions. That is something you do you have to credit me for.
Shankar, we share similar goals as they pertain to geopolitics and, especially, Ukraine. We simply disagree-sometimes-on how to get there. Playing games with nuclear weapons when you have unstable actors is not conducive to "peace of mind". I grew up during the Cold War and I remember very well the pointless "duck and cover" exercises and the Cuban Missile Crisis and all the rest of the "gamesmanship" both sides played. We were lucky not to have blown ourselves up. I have no wish to revisit those times, especially with a madman in charge of the US. We could achieve the same result by making these moves quietly. The Russians would get the same message without "putting their backs up"...dangerously so, in my opinion.
Putin uses nuclear weapons as a tool to soften the western response. He will go all the way to Portugal with that.
When are we going to stop?
Keep feeding this monster 1 million lives every year?
You move in a way that he fears going next to that weapon. And that means you speak from a position of strength, and that means, you have to call his bluff. That is what Caine is doing here.
He is reminding the terrorist that he is not the only one with the weapon. That we have better weapons than him. Caine is not moving them to use them. He is moving so much that there is no point in using them.
That my friends is the art of deterrence. It does no good to do it in secret, make sure everybody knows it and knows the capabilities. The two SSN or SSBN (we do not know for sure but I assume the latter) were probably already on patrol in the Pacific but deployed closer to Petropavlovsk.
Lol. I almost wrote about the possible locations and then deleted it. Thanks for letting me remember that the whole point is transparency. Not sure where I lost it. But thank you.
This is one of the best articles I’ve read which explains what is going on between US and NATO at the nuclear level.
Assuming Putin sees this as real, it communicates a reality that has been missing from our efforts in both Ukraine and in Europe. Maybe Trump’s team is filling in reality from the top down as it presses Putin to stand down?
I’m skeptical about what Trump may do if Putin makes noises about ending his war in Ukraine. Putin is malevolent and Trump has no demonstrated capacity to follow through.
Not a recipe for stability. Maybe also not a recipe for escalation? It’s something.
But this is starting to feel like the jibe that the US tries all the wrong things before trying the right things. It seems like it may be much easier, and more aligned with Europe’s direction of rearming and taking their security more seriously, if the EU were to just hand Russian frozen assets to Ukraine.
In the sense that the nukes explain extreme seriousness, the assets explain that the material costs to Russia will only go up… and imply that Russia’s reparations will likely exceed the asset value by multiples.
My first reaction to this move was sheer, unmitigated dread. My grandson turns 5 today, and wrapping his presents was an exercise in measured restraint, as I didn't want my tears to ruin the wrapping paper. But after some time passed it struck me that this so-called escalation is of a kind to what Russia has been putting out there for quite a while, and could well serve as an effective countermeasure to all that. Like two drunks in a bar (gulp!) Trump and Putin may be comparing biceps here. Hopefully, both will understand that some fights will result in a zero sum outcome. But I sure wish I could be sure of that.
The Cold War never turned hot precisely because of the balance of power.
When a nation feels overwhelmingly stronger than its rival, it might be tempted to launch an attack, believing it will most likely win. But when there's uncertainty about the outcome, that same nation is far more hesitant to strike.
The game the Americans are playing right now is extremely dangerous. It's the same kind of game that led the Russians to attack Kiev—only to fail miserably in the opening days of that war.
You always need to be careful about who you choose to challenge.
And this logic of balance of power doesn’t just apply to nations: it applies just as well to two drunk guys at a bar. This is everyday life—you don’t need to be the President of the United States to understand that.
The United States is absolutely right to do what it’s doing—I genuinely believe that. I love the West and the values we stand for.
That said, it doesn’t stop me from recognizing that we’re all engaged in a very dangerous game, one that demands our full attention.
In my articles, I often talk about the CRINK alliance, and I personally believe that the wars in Europe and the Middle East are, in some ways, connected—
waged together precisely to destabilize the entire West on multiple fronts.
For now, as I’ve been saying for some time: we are winning. Iran isn’t doing well. Israel is doing a great job. And Ukraine, supported by us Westerners, is slowly weakening Russia.
The biggest price is being paid by the Ukrainians themselves; we’re only losing money and resources.
Those wars are definitely connected. The Kremlin was surely involved in coordinating Oct. 7 with Iran & Hamas. It divided Biden’s attention from Ukraine.
I hope & pray that Ukraine can finish the job soon.
This war is likely to last much longer, as it benefits several sides: the Europeans, the Americans, and the Ukrainians—who are trying to recover ground they may lose in the future. At the same time, the Russians haven’t achieved any victory significant enough to showcase to their public opinion.
The current strategy seems to be making Russia pay the highest possible price for every inch of territory it manages to take.
That’s a hard truth -that my country is deliberately prolonging the war to destroy Russia’s military capability. It’s such an uncomfortable truth that I’d forgotten it.
I suppose the calculation is that we either do it with this invasion, or expect to have to do it again in a few years. Still, 💔 🇺🇦. They are heroes.
I also read that Biden was worried about what would replace Putin if there was a coup & was advised that too quick and decisive a loss could trigger one.
If it makes you feel any better, it’s not just the United States fueling the war — the European Union is doing it too.
If we hadn’t done it, Ukraine would have been much more easily conquered, and today Kyiv would already be a Russian city.
Over the years, Ukraine has been yet another country that wanted to get closer to us after the fall of the Soviet Union. Others, like Estonia, Poland, or Romania, made the same choice.
We took advantage of their willingness and integrated them, because it was in our interest.
With Ukraine, we’re facing more difficulties — but we’ll make it. 🇺🇸🇪🇺🇺🇦
All good AB. July 11th to August 2. Caine is almost into the safety zone. But he needs one more. I don't want to write about it yet. Not safe. Too many think tanks reading my stories. Let him do it. Then I will cover it. For now, we are in a good space with respect to Ukraine.
And yet again, I am going to thank you, Shankar!
Thank you, Char Grant.
we're all hanging tight here with Shankar, amen
That is as reassuring as it can be short of a ceasefire or better capitulation by Russia (ha!).
He can't end the war that easily. There will be a coup. He needs fear us response more than he fears an internal revolt by the oligarchs and FSB. That will only happen after he loses a few bearings. That needs more work. Think five to seven circles. We are in the first circle.
Can't let fear control us. That is exactly what putin and terrorists love to box us in. Don't.
That would depend on exactly what the fear consisted of.
I can understand the decision made by Trumman and his advisors in August of 1945. The terrible cost of invading the Japanese home islands, given what we knew of their fanatical determination, was something no American president would have willingly contemplated if he had an alternative. But Truman had no concrete understanding of what he was unleashing. No one really did. Even Oppenheimer and his famous quote about being Death, the Destroyer of worlds could not be certain.
Now we can be, even though only a very few who have ever actually experienced nuclear war remain to tell us. Add to that the minimal amount of time any leader would have to make such an unimaginable decision in reaction, and you have a recipe for something beyond human understanding.
We were doing the wisest thing we could to contain Putin’s aggression under Biden. No American lives lost while costing Putin a human toll he could not sustain.
Rolling the dice with Armageddon is not the answer.
Well, well, well. Those two nuclear submarines had me up worrying last night. I forgot that Trump really is listening to someone who seems to know precisely what he is doing. I am, of course, not happy that nukes are under consideration anywhere in the world. But prevention is a good thing. If Moscow shoots off its mouth, we have no choice but to listen and respond accordingly.
I do not trust Trump to have the necessary patience to carry out a successful mission. I am, however, learning to trust General Caine. Putin will become increasingly desperate as things grow worse for him militarily. But help from China and North Korea might cause him to make some foolish moves. Now he is in check.
Thank you for this marvelously clear and important article. I absolutely rely on you to give me realistic insights into our bellicose world.
My reply to you loaded below. Not sure why.
I would give zero credit for anything to trump here, his brain is decaying at a rapid clip, he couldn't think his way out of a wet paper sack if someone ripped it for him. I doubt he wrote that post either, he is being "managed" in so far as that's possible, and someone else is doing the strategizing. If it were down to him, the statements would be much less measured, and more inflammatory, it's simply what he IS.
Yes. Also, Trump posts that have actually been typed by Trump himself have typos, ALL-CAPS words, ungrammatically-placed "quotation marks", and a degree of general incoherence that is missing here.
Precisely.
Sorry, but disagree with you on that, Lux.
I wouldn't worry about those subs being... repositioned. Trident missile subs can hit anywhere on the globe from most anywhere. The subs he (allegedly) repositioned may be attack subs, which generally aren't equipped with nuclear missiles.
Good to know.
Shades of Cold War posturing! Why don't I feel better knowing this...with Trump's finger on the nuclear button and Putin's hold on power wavering? What could possibly go wrong?
And this has nothing to do with posturing. That is a very different area. This is calm escalation and we have never been inside this type of doctrine. Ever.
Maybe, but trying it out for the first time with Trump and Putin performing a "Pas de Deux" does not make for a "calming effect". Teddy Rooseveldt is noted for quoting a West African proverb: ‘Speak softly and carry a big stick; you will go far.’. We seem to have forgotten the "softly" part.
Disagreed.
Remember the conversation we had about Patriot air defense for Ukraine. How many times did I write that Germany will send two units within three months? Yesterday, Germany confirmed that it has delivered two units already.
It is there in Ukraine as we speak.
I rest my case here.
I dont find answers and then put them in place. When I say things I also say why. And how I reach those conclusions. That is something you do you have to credit me for.
https://x.com/GermanyNATO/status/1951193826179039596
Shankar, we share similar goals as they pertain to geopolitics and, especially, Ukraine. We simply disagree-sometimes-on how to get there. Playing games with nuclear weapons when you have unstable actors is not conducive to "peace of mind". I grew up during the Cold War and I remember very well the pointless "duck and cover" exercises and the Cuban Missile Crisis and all the rest of the "gamesmanship" both sides played. We were lucky not to have blown ourselves up. I have no wish to revisit those times, especially with a madman in charge of the US. We could achieve the same result by making these moves quietly. The Russians would get the same message without "putting their backs up"...dangerously so, in my opinion.
Caine is not playing games.
Putin uses nuclear weapons as a tool to soften the western response. He will go all the way to Portugal with that.
When are we going to stop?
Keep feeding this monster 1 million lives every year?
You move in a way that he fears going next to that weapon. And that means you speak from a position of strength, and that means, you have to call his bluff. That is what Caine is doing here.
He is reminding the terrorist that he is not the only one with the weapon. That we have better weapons than him. Caine is not moving them to use them. He is moving so much that there is no point in using them.
Pace. :)
From your lips to gods' ears, Shankar.
That my friends is the art of deterrence. It does no good to do it in secret, make sure everybody knows it and knows the capabilities. The two SSN or SSBN (we do not know for sure but I assume the latter) were probably already on patrol in the Pacific but deployed closer to Petropavlovsk.
Yep.
100%.
Lol. I almost wrote about the possible locations and then deleted it. Thanks for letting me remember that the whole point is transparency. Not sure where I lost it. But thank you.
I am laughing thinking about Dr Strangelove and the “doomsday” machine discussion as the world is about to end.
Thank you Shankar. This is going to require time to digest.
Haha. I know. He is not moving them to use them. He is moving so much that there won't be a need to use them.
Yep… typical of him…
Such a beautiful move!
Admire the transparency, breathtaking planning, UK cooperation.
What Medvedev is doing now, we know. But what is Putin doing now?
Hiding under his bed in Crimea. Or Irkutsk.
it is a case of as they say in canada elbows up
yep
This is one of the best articles I’ve read which explains what is going on between US and NATO at the nuclear level.
Assuming Putin sees this as real, it communicates a reality that has been missing from our efforts in both Ukraine and in Europe. Maybe Trump’s team is filling in reality from the top down as it presses Putin to stand down?
I’m skeptical about what Trump may do if Putin makes noises about ending his war in Ukraine. Putin is malevolent and Trump has no demonstrated capacity to follow through.
Not a recipe for stability. Maybe also not a recipe for escalation? It’s something.
But this is starting to feel like the jibe that the US tries all the wrong things before trying the right things. It seems like it may be much easier, and more aligned with Europe’s direction of rearming and taking their security more seriously, if the EU were to just hand Russian frozen assets to Ukraine.
In the sense that the nukes explain extreme seriousness, the assets explain that the material costs to Russia will only go up… and imply that Russia’s reparations will likely exceed the asset value by multiples.
All very satisfying even as it’s nerve wracking.
Slava Ukraini!!!
Black Man Spy and Lev Remembers should see your post!
Naa. I hope not
Is there any reason we can't use a tactical nuke on little PAB with prodigious?
No need..that will be counter productive
So, General Caine is turning out to be a good pick? If so, that is a HUGE relief. Is it enough to mitigate Hegseth & Colby?
Not an easy task. So far he has managed to keep swimming against the tide.
My first reaction to this move was sheer, unmitigated dread. My grandson turns 5 today, and wrapping his presents was an exercise in measured restraint, as I didn't want my tears to ruin the wrapping paper. But after some time passed it struck me that this so-called escalation is of a kind to what Russia has been putting out there for quite a while, and could well serve as an effective countermeasure to all that. Like two drunks in a bar (gulp!) Trump and Putin may be comparing biceps here. Hopefully, both will understand that some fights will result in a zero sum outcome. But I sure wish I could be sure of that.
No Leigh. We still have a long way to go..these are key steps..but early steps.
The Cold War never turned hot precisely because of the balance of power.
When a nation feels overwhelmingly stronger than its rival, it might be tempted to launch an attack, believing it will most likely win. But when there's uncertainty about the outcome, that same nation is far more hesitant to strike.
The game the Americans are playing right now is extremely dangerous. It's the same kind of game that led the Russians to attack Kiev—only to fail miserably in the opening days of that war.
You always need to be careful about who you choose to challenge.
And this logic of balance of power doesn’t just apply to nations: it applies just as well to two drunk guys at a bar. This is everyday life—you don’t need to be the President of the United States to understand that.
Then what about what Russia -China - iran and North Korea are doing? You think these four will stop? When do you think they will stop?
The United States is absolutely right to do what it’s doing—I genuinely believe that. I love the West and the values we stand for.
That said, it doesn’t stop me from recognizing that we’re all engaged in a very dangerous game, one that demands our full attention.
In my articles, I often talk about the CRINK alliance, and I personally believe that the wars in Europe and the Middle East are, in some ways, connected—
waged together precisely to destabilize the entire West on multiple fronts.
For now, as I’ve been saying for some time: we are winning. Iran isn’t doing well. Israel is doing a great job. And Ukraine, supported by us Westerners, is slowly weakening Russia.
The biggest price is being paid by the Ukrainians themselves; we’re only losing money and resources.
Those wars are definitely connected. The Kremlin was surely involved in coordinating Oct. 7 with Iran & Hamas. It divided Biden’s attention from Ukraine.
I hope & pray that Ukraine can finish the job soon.
This war is likely to last much longer, as it benefits several sides: the Europeans, the Americans, and the Ukrainians—who are trying to recover ground they may lose in the future. At the same time, the Russians haven’t achieved any victory significant enough to showcase to their public opinion.
The current strategy seems to be making Russia pay the highest possible price for every inch of territory it manages to take.
I often talk about this in more detail.
That’s a hard truth -that my country is deliberately prolonging the war to destroy Russia’s military capability. It’s such an uncomfortable truth that I’d forgotten it.
I suppose the calculation is that we either do it with this invasion, or expect to have to do it again in a few years. Still, 💔 🇺🇦. They are heroes.
I also read that Biden was worried about what would replace Putin if there was a coup & was advised that too quick and decisive a loss could trigger one.
If it makes you feel any better, it’s not just the United States fueling the war — the European Union is doing it too.
If we hadn’t done it, Ukraine would have been much more easily conquered, and today Kyiv would already be a Russian city.
Over the years, Ukraine has been yet another country that wanted to get closer to us after the fall of the Soviet Union. Others, like Estonia, Poland, or Romania, made the same choice.
We took advantage of their willingness and integrated them, because it was in our interest.
With Ukraine, we’re facing more difficulties — but we’ll make it. 🇺🇸🇪🇺🇺🇦
When America minds its own business.
I’d feel much better if it wasn’t Trump doing it.
I know. But let us be happy that he thinks Ukraine is a better bet than Russia. He loves to join the winners. Why should we care? Good for our kids.