7:00 AM local time. July 15, 2025.
One week after President Trump humiliated the Pentagon by overturning its decision to pause military aid to Ukraine—and just three days after he assured Chancellor Merz that he was ready to sell Patriot air defense systems to Europe—a C-17 Globemaster transport aircraft, flight number RCH4574, lifted off from its base at Lewis–McChord in Washington State.
Its first destination: Kirtland Air Force Base in Albuquerque, New Mexico—the hub of U.S. Air Force nuclear operations, and home to the largest nuclear weapons storage facility in the world. The Kirtland Underground Munitions Maintenance and Storage Complex houses a vast portion of America’s nuclear arsenal, including gravity bombs and warheads.
Open-source investigators, including the highly reliable Nukewatch UK, confirm that “the aircraft almost certainly loaded up with a cargo of anything up to 20 newly manufactured B61-12 nuclear weapons—a new, modernized version of the U.S. Air Force’s principal nuclear gravity bomb, offering greater accuracy than older variants of the weapon.”
The following day, on July 16, the C-17 took off, crossed the Atlantic, and was refueled mid-flight by tanker aircrafts. It reached the Royal Air Force base at Lakenheath in the United Kingdom the next day. On the day of arrival, security at Lakenheath was so intense that a strict ‘no-fly’ restriction was enforced over a 2.5-nautical-mile radius around the base.
Nukewatch states that this specific C-17 aircraft was transporting a shipment of B61-12 nuclear bombs to Lakenheath. The B61-12 is the latest variant in the U.S. B61 family of tactical nuclear gravity bombs, which have long been a cornerstone of both U.S. and NATO nuclear strategy.
With a 30-meter circular error probable (CEP), the B61-12 can achieve intended effects with a lower yield, making it more “usable” in military planning and less escalatory than traditional high-yield warheads. It is engineered to be deployed from NATO-allied dual-capable aircraft such as the F-35A, allowing it to be seamlessly integrated into both nuclear and conventional missions. This ensures flexible forward deployment options.
Putin loathes the B61-12 for precisely those reasons. Precision targeting—within 30 meters. Adjustable lower yields. Air-droppable from stealth-capable F-35As. Together, these factors make nuclear use more plausible in conflict planning. In effect, it opens the door to a first-strike option: U.S. strategic bombers could now destroy high-value targets with lower yields and significantly reduced radioactive fallout.
No other country currently has anything quite like the B61-12. It is unique in the world for its combination of:
Dial-a-yield variable explosive power
Precision guidance (tail kit)
Air-droppable from stealth aircraft (like the F-35)
Flexible strategic and tactical use, and
Deployment in allied host nations under shared nuclear posture
So, the United States picked up its most advanced nuclear weapon, loaded it into a Globemaster, left the transponders on, flew it across the Atlantic—supported by another Globemaster—and landed at the RAF base at Lakenheath. That base, coincidentally, has both the hardened infrastructure required to store nuclear weapons and the operational presence of F-35 fighter jets—aircraft specifically certified to deliver the B61-12.
In other words, the United States didn’t even pretend to hide what it was doing.
It wanted to be seen. It wanted the world—and especially the loudmouths in the Kremlin who love rattling the nuclear saber—to know that the most advanced tactical nuclear weapon in U.S. history is now stationed in Europe.
And it wasn’t a coincidence that, yesterday, Donald Trump used his social media account to declare that he had ordered two U.S. nuclear submarines to move closer to Russian waters.
Based on the highly provocative statements of the Former President of Russia, Dmitry Medvedev, who is now the Deputy Chairman of the Security Council of the Russian Federation, I have ordered two Nuclear Submarines to be positioned in the appropriate regions, just in case these foolish and inflammatory statements are more than just that. Words are very important, and can often lead to unintended consequences, I hope this will not be one of those instances. Thank you for your attention to this matter!
As is typical in MAGA fashion, Trump deflected responsibility by blaming Dmitry Medvedev—claiming that he was responding to verbal provocations by the Kremlin. But the reality is this: the United States is now executing an enveloping maneuver, starting with the deployment of some of its most advanced weapons.
And Washington has no interest whatsoever in hiding it.
Because that visibility—that deliberate transparency—is precisely what underpins Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Dan Caine’s Doctrine of Restraint.
The idea is simple but devastating: pack so much concentrated strength into a confined forward pocket that the enemy doesn’t just fear responding—they feel powerless to even think about it. This isn’t about launching a strike. It’s about closing the mental space in which an adversary believes they have viable options. We are still in the early stages of this posture, but the message is already loud and clear.
General Caine has just moved the one thing Moscow dreads most—not a speech, not a sanction, not a warning—but a precision-guided, air-deliverable nuclear gravity bomb, staged and ready on NATO soil, in full view of the world.
The Doctrine of Restraint doesn’t whisper. It stares down the enemy with calm, surgical pressure—until their only remaining move is not to move at all.
Your support helps The Concis fly the flag for Ukraine—and for every democracy—a little stronger, a little higher.
All good AB. July 11th to August 2. Caine is almost into the safety zone. But he needs one more. I don't want to write about it yet. Not safe. Too many think tanks reading my stories. Let him do it. Then I will cover it. For now, we are in a good space with respect to Ukraine.
He can't end the war that easily. There will be a coup. He needs fear us response more than he fears an internal revolt by the oligarchs and FSB. That will only happen after he loses a few bearings. That needs more work. Think five to seven circles. We are in the first circle.