My perspective on this is perhaps slightly different: I’d say that we are in serious trouble. There may well be a —difficult and expensive— way to solve this trouble that involves integrating India into a serious alliance. If that turns out to be not feasible, there are still other ways to solve this trouble, but they are even more difficult and even more expensive.
Very true. I’m deeply uncomfortable as well with the idea of involving India in an alliance as long as Modi and his BJP are in any way involved. However I agree with Shankar that there is probably an opportunity here. I’d say: Write those contracts with India so that it is an explicit precondition to long term cooperation that India must not venture any further on the road towards authoritarianism. But go forward at top speed to negotiate those contracts to work out agreements that are mutually beneficial and well-aligned with the reasonable needs of both sides. One such need from the perspective of EU+Canada being a commitment on India’s part to work on becoming politically less toxic and it particular avoid becoming more toxic than it currently is.
The rise of Canada, under the new Prime Minister, Mark Carney, has been one of the most pleasant surprises in a world seemingly spiraling out of control. For that we have Trump to thank. Without his insane threats to Canada's sovereignty we might have had a mini-Trump like Pierre Poilievre in charge. But now the West has a true leader with impeccable European connections and a firm grip on geopolitics and how to use them. So, the new "axis" you envision makes good sense.
As for China...yes, they are sensitive to international perceptions of their role in supporting Russia, and yes, they fear a de-stabilized Russia...but...they have never forgotten the northern lands of Outer Manchuria that they lost in the 19th century to Russia (Treaties of Aigun (1858) and Peking (1860)). They have even re-introduced the old Chinese names for this land in recent maps. China plays the "long game". They have quietly been signing security agreements with the so-called "stans" of Central Asia (Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan) through their "Belt and Road" trade initiatives. Xi Jinping has been emphasizing a concept he calls "Shared Future" with these countries through increased economic, military and political integration. So, a de-stabilized Russia could also offer greater opportunities for Chinese expansion: Lock in the Central Asian countries, re-take Outer Manchuria (at least through economic dominance, which they are slowly doing now) and make a Russian "rump state" subservient to China. There are probably a number of variations on this "theme" that could develop but one thing is certain...we are living in "interesting times", indeed.
Excellent look at the dynamics affecting China's ability or willingness to act, and on Europe's need to act.
One other opportunity, or apparent opportunity, for Europe emerges from the composition of the Canada, Europe, and India alliance. The EU can incentivize India's participation by informing China of increased sanctions for its continued support for Putin, alerting India to increased trade and military benefits by not buying Russia energy. These sanctions can include tariffs on China's EV (and related) exports and can be ramped up or down depending on China's Putin-affinity. Offering India market access normally taken up by China, can supply adequate messaging to all parties.
Applying these sanctions/tariffs to China based on its behavior toward Putin will reflect Europe's proper response to Putin's persistence in Ukraine and China's continued support of Putin.
And handing Ukraine Russia's frozen assets ($300 billion) can spin up additional pressure on Putin and convey to China, more earnestly, that Putin's war has no discernible end point where Russia comes out a "winner".
China may complain, but should not be surprised. Something like this was coming regardless. By taking a lead role, Europe mitigates potential Trump-harm to Ukraine and to Europe, and puts pressure on the Trump-Putin bromance.
The upshot of this move helps to broaden the lens of accountability around Ukraine to better focus on Europe's actions taken its own defense, while minimizing the US role which has inexcusably sloughed into a kind of fealty to Putin.
The generational aspects of China's process of biting off bits of Europe's resilience seems spot on. Europe can take on a more purposeful role in its own destiny by stepping up with Canada and India, while re-routing China's gnawing towards Putin's direction.
China does have choices to make.
By adding more pressure to its Putin-choices, Europe can help China, minimally, find excuses to step back from its Russian commitments. China got into the Putin business because it wanted to "change the world order". Well, China, by allowing Putin's Russia to realize the folly of Putin's War, can help Russia re-think its priorities. Russia, in its current posture is a chaotic threat to China. China can help manage the nature of this threat by conveying to Putin the increasing costs of his war.
Putin, for his part, cannot afford to win the war, or to lose it. Sometimes, that's the outcome.
Xi's opportunity seems to be to somehow walk Putin out of his war. What happens to Putin is neither here nor there. If China's role is seen as, in its way, pro-Russian, the chaos emerging from potential Russian regime change may not touch China in a significant way. Also with Europe having taken decisions in its own interest and backed it up with military force, the emerging reality in Europe, Russia and China may well be well-earned reality check for all parties.
(I think I may be babbling now, so I'll end here.)
It’s not really fair to leave the Aussies, Kiwis, Chile, Columbia, Argentina, Peru, or Mexico out of this, innit? Especially seeing as Australia is watching AUKUS disintegrate under their feet.
Immensely helpful perspective, Shankar—thank you!
Modi's India is more like Hungary, hardly a paragon of virtue. the way the ruling BJP politicians speak about minorities are no better than MAGA.
Yes. But it is the only option to balance the Russia/China equation. Leave them out, we are going to be in trouble.
If only more people thought the way you do Shankar Narayan!
Let us get as many as possible.
My perspective on this is perhaps slightly different: I’d say that we are in serious trouble. There may well be a —difficult and expensive— way to solve this trouble that involves integrating India into a serious alliance. If that turns out to be not feasible, there are still other ways to solve this trouble, but they are even more difficult and even more expensive.
Very true. I’m deeply uncomfortable as well with the idea of involving India in an alliance as long as Modi and his BJP are in any way involved. However I agree with Shankar that there is probably an opportunity here. I’d say: Write those contracts with India so that it is an explicit precondition to long term cooperation that India must not venture any further on the road towards authoritarianism. But go forward at top speed to negotiate those contracts to work out agreements that are mutually beneficial and well-aligned with the reasonable needs of both sides. One such need from the perspective of EU+Canada being a commitment on India’s part to work on becoming politically less toxic and it particular avoid becoming more toxic than it currently is.
The rise of Canada, under the new Prime Minister, Mark Carney, has been one of the most pleasant surprises in a world seemingly spiraling out of control. For that we have Trump to thank. Without his insane threats to Canada's sovereignty we might have had a mini-Trump like Pierre Poilievre in charge. But now the West has a true leader with impeccable European connections and a firm grip on geopolitics and how to use them. So, the new "axis" you envision makes good sense.
As for China...yes, they are sensitive to international perceptions of their role in supporting Russia, and yes, they fear a de-stabilized Russia...but...they have never forgotten the northern lands of Outer Manchuria that they lost in the 19th century to Russia (Treaties of Aigun (1858) and Peking (1860)). They have even re-introduced the old Chinese names for this land in recent maps. China plays the "long game". They have quietly been signing security agreements with the so-called "stans" of Central Asia (Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan) through their "Belt and Road" trade initiatives. Xi Jinping has been emphasizing a concept he calls "Shared Future" with these countries through increased economic, military and political integration. So, a de-stabilized Russia could also offer greater opportunities for Chinese expansion: Lock in the Central Asian countries, re-take Outer Manchuria (at least through economic dominance, which they are slowly doing now) and make a Russian "rump state" subservient to China. There are probably a number of variations on this "theme" that could develop but one thing is certain...we are living in "interesting times", indeed.
That is very very true. Thanks Trump......
Great piece! And also - Europe needs to make drone motor magnets themselves, asap!
Excellent look at the dynamics affecting China's ability or willingness to act, and on Europe's need to act.
One other opportunity, or apparent opportunity, for Europe emerges from the composition of the Canada, Europe, and India alliance. The EU can incentivize India's participation by informing China of increased sanctions for its continued support for Putin, alerting India to increased trade and military benefits by not buying Russia energy. These sanctions can include tariffs on China's EV (and related) exports and can be ramped up or down depending on China's Putin-affinity. Offering India market access normally taken up by China, can supply adequate messaging to all parties.
While the US Senate ponders faux actions (via Graham's bill, S 1241 - https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/senate-bill/1241/text?s=1&r=2 ) Europe can snatch action from the gaping maw of the US Senate's GOP, and actually step into a lead role - where it should be.
Applying these sanctions/tariffs to China based on its behavior toward Putin will reflect Europe's proper response to Putin's persistence in Ukraine and China's continued support of Putin.
And handing Ukraine Russia's frozen assets ($300 billion) can spin up additional pressure on Putin and convey to China, more earnestly, that Putin's war has no discernible end point where Russia comes out a "winner".
China may complain, but should not be surprised. Something like this was coming regardless. By taking a lead role, Europe mitigates potential Trump-harm to Ukraine and to Europe, and puts pressure on the Trump-Putin bromance.
The upshot of this move helps to broaden the lens of accountability around Ukraine to better focus on Europe's actions taken its own defense, while minimizing the US role which has inexcusably sloughed into a kind of fealty to Putin.
The generational aspects of China's process of biting off bits of Europe's resilience seems spot on. Europe can take on a more purposeful role in its own destiny by stepping up with Canada and India, while re-routing China's gnawing towards Putin's direction.
China does have choices to make.
By adding more pressure to its Putin-choices, Europe can help China, minimally, find excuses to step back from its Russian commitments. China got into the Putin business because it wanted to "change the world order". Well, China, by allowing Putin's Russia to realize the folly of Putin's War, can help Russia re-think its priorities. Russia, in its current posture is a chaotic threat to China. China can help manage the nature of this threat by conveying to Putin the increasing costs of his war.
Putin, for his part, cannot afford to win the war, or to lose it. Sometimes, that's the outcome.
Xi's opportunity seems to be to somehow walk Putin out of his war. What happens to Putin is neither here nor there. If China's role is seen as, in its way, pro-Russian, the chaos emerging from potential Russian regime change may not touch China in a significant way. Also with Europe having taken decisions in its own interest and backed it up with military force, the emerging reality in Europe, Russia and China may well be well-earned reality check for all parties.
(I think I may be babbling now, so I'll end here.)
No, zou weren't babbling. Thank you for sharing your outlook.
This is absolutely spot on: Putin, for his part, cannot afford to win the war, or to lose it. Sometimes, that's the outcome.
Who would have guessed, lunch service on the journey to utopia serves curry.
It’s not really fair to leave the Aussies, Kiwis, Chile, Columbia, Argentina, Peru, or Mexico out of this, innit? Especially seeing as Australia is watching AUKUS disintegrate under their feet.