China Is Biting at the Edges. Europe Can’t Afford to Blink.

Beijing isn’t backing Putin out of loyalty—it’s doing it to survive. And unless Europe, Canada, and India act fast, the cost will be generational.

This is not the first time. It won’t be the last time either.

China is once again testing the perimeter of the Western democratic order—this time by extending subtle yet strategic support to Putin’s war against Ukraine. “Chinese Mavic is open for Russians but is closed for Ukrainians,” President Zelenskyy told reporters on Tuesday, referencing DJI’s widely used Mavic drones, which have become a crucial component of modern battlefield operations. A senior European official later confirmed that this aligns with internal intelligence assessments: China has quietly restricted exports of key components—like drone motor magnets—to Western countries, while simultaneously increasing shipments to Russia.

Beijing, as expected, has denied any wrongdoing. It insists that it strictly regulates dual-use technologies and, in its words, “firmly opposes baseless accusations.” But this kind of calibrated denial has become routine. When Ukraine provided evidence of Chinese nationals recruited by the Russian military and found fighting on the front lines, China dismissed the claims without investigation. When former U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken publicly warned in 2023 that China was preparing to send lethal aid to Russia, Beijing was caught off guard. The warning preempted their plans, forcing an awkward retreat.

And then came Europe’s turn to act.

Former German Chancellor Olaf Scholz issued a very public warning that I firmly believe played a decisive role in forcing Beijing to reconsider. On March 2, 2023, in a speech to the German parliament, Scholz directly urged China not to arm Russia and to instead use its influence to pressure Moscow into withdrawing its troops from Ukraine. He made it clear: supplying weapons to an aggressor was unacceptable. The message was firm—deliberate—and unusually unified for Berlin.

Link

And these actions—this calculated habit of testing the limits by offering just enough support to Putin’s war—aren’t anomalies. They are textbook behavior for authoritarian regimes. Dictatorships rarely lunge outright. Instead, they nibble at the edges, probing for resistance. They take small bites, test your response, and if you blink or look the other way, the next bite is a little bigger. Keep ignoring them, and eventually, they’re at the center—too entrenched to dislodge, too late to resist.

Fortunately, China’s attempts to directly aid Putin’s invasion have been repeatedly checked. And a considerable share of the credit for this containment must go to former U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken. He wasn’t merely reactive—he was two steps ahead. He understood how sensitive Beijing is to global perception, and he used that awareness to shape a narrative that made escalation costly. Blinken didn’t just rally Washington; he nudged Europe to step up when it mattered, often without needing to say much in public.

This brings us to the larger question: why does China even want to help Russia? Why risk its credibility and economic relationships with Europe—a bloc it trades with to the tune of hundreds of billions annually? The answer is less about ideology and more about long-term survival. China fears the aftermath of Putin more than the cost of aiding him now. A post-Putin Russia that descends into chaos would create a destabilized neighbor right on China’s northern flank. Worse, if Russia somehow stumbles toward democracy—an open society on both China’s north and south—it would present a terrifying ideological threat to the Chinese Communist Party.

This isn’t about affection for Putin or contempt for Europe. It’s about self-preservation. National security, Beijing-style.

That’s why China treads carefully. It won’t commit fully to Putin’s cause—but it will do just enough to make sure he doesn’t lose outright. And that means backing him into a war of attrition, a long burn that drains Europe’s resolve. Every time Beijing has tested this strategy, Blinken was there to push back—decisively, subtly, and effectively. But now, the geopolitical chessboard has shifted. Marco Rubio is the new U.S. Secretary of State, and with that comes uncertainty. Whether he will play the same kind of multidimensional game is, at best, unpredictable.

This time, Europe cannot count on the United States to stop this problem from metastasizing into something far larger. Washington is distracted, unpredictable, and no longer the steady hand it once claimed to be. The burden now shifts to Europe. If they want to prevent this from spiraling into a geopolitical crisis with generational consequences, they will have to act on their own.

That starts with pressure—public, visible, sustained pressure. European governments must begin calling out China directly and unapologetically for its duplicity. Not behind closed doors. On the record. The simple act of public exposure has often been enough to force Beijing into retreat. And that window still exists.

But Europe cannot just play defense. If there was ever a moment to blunt China’s creeping involvement in Russia’s imperial war, it is now. The path forward runs through a new axis—Canada, Europe, and India. And the opportunity is ripe.

---

If you're finding value in this kind of unfiltered geopolitical analysis... Subscribe to get sharp, no-BS breakdowns like this.

India has grown increasingly frustrated with Beijing, particularly over China’s response to Pakistan’s role in cross-border terrorism. The diplomatic damage is deep. The trust deficit is real. And beneath that lies a strategic opening.

In purchasing power parity (PPP) terms, China’s economy stands at around $40 trillion. But India is no minor player—it clocks in at a powerful $17 trillion. Both countries are giants in population and growth potential, but unlike China, India is still climbing its economic curve with real momentum. Crucially, India’s expanding military posture and long-term defense procurement plans make it the ideal market for European arms manufacturers.

If Canada and Europe can recognize this synergy—if they simply start smoothing regulatory frictions, striking foundational deals, and sending early signals of deepening ties—it will rattle Beijing. China always follows the money. And if they sense that future trade flows are shifting toward New Delhi, they will think twice before funneling more aid toward Moscow.

This strategy does more than box in dictatorships. It redraws the global map. It lays the foundation for a trading and security architecture that marginalizes not only China and Russia—but also reins in unchecked U.S. influence. After all, much of today’s global instability stems from American overreach. The dependency on Washington has led to reckless adventurism, destabilized allies, and a cavalier attitude toward sovereignty.

We’ve now reached the point where annexing Canada or Greenland is debated like a business deal. Where Ukraine is described as empty land. Where billionaires casually endorse Beijing’s "right" to Taiwan. This isn’t diplomacy. This is delusion.

The world cannot afford to follow that path. Because if it does, billions of people will end up living under the whims of a few unchecked men and their proxies. Maybe seven men deciding the future of eight billion. That is not progress. That is regression—to the darkest corners of the 14th century.

So, Europe and Canada must stop seeing China’s actions as just a problem to manage. They should see them for what they truly are: an opportunity. A rare, wide-open chance to reset the global power balance—not with bombs, but with alliances, trade, and strategy.

This is the moment. The door is wide open. And that’s exactly why I had hoped Mark Carney would lead Canada. Because what happens next will require precision, clarity, and backbone. If Canada, Europe, and India begin to aggressively align—removing bureaucratic delays, streamlining defense and trade partnerships, and building momentum—then we are not just countering China.

We are reshaping the world.

A strong Canada-Europe-India axis wouldn’t just slow down Beijing’s ambitions. It would also apply the necessary pressure on Washington to finally reassess its own hubris. And it would leave Moscow isolated, tethered to a losing bet. All three great powers—China, the United States, and Russia—would face a new kind of check. One built not on ideology, but on cooperation, trade leverage, and long-term vision.

What’s not to like?

This is the path to a more balanced world. A world not dictated by the tantrums of strongmen or the fantasies of billionaires. A world where no single capital holds the keys to everyone’s future. If that balance can be struck—if that alliance can be forged—it won’t just protect democracies. It will give them room to breathe, to grow, and to lead.

But only if we act now.

Still here? That matters. Tap the ♥️ or share this with one person who needs to see it