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Alexandra Barcus's avatar

For the first time since yesterday afternoon I don’t feel sick. This analysis is sheer brilliance. I hope the Europeans follow your recommendations. You have assessed Trump’s psychology very well. I ran him down in many comments and feel a bit foolish. Not that he deserves praise, but it was mishandling in the moment. I want him to move away from Putin. It is a desperate situation and must be handled diplomatically—no bruising the ego.

I am persuaded. This was no easy sell as I am very angry. But your batting average is so good. You have not led me astray on these matters even once over months and months. Thank you. And glory to Ukraine.

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Shankar Narayan's avatar

Thanks AB. And my most likely that this will be nothing burger prediction worked. Yay. One of the most difficult variable sets to pin down. Not bad. (and i do have to say i never do most likely, very rare).

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Coprophilic Wellness's avatar

Nothing burger in terms of what the bad orange man gave away (seemingly), but massive PR win. The orange traitor gave putin a massive PR win and rehabilitation. Some of the images and video from that little trip are truly sickening - and the world's focus are on those.

But this brilliant Ukranian counterattack is great news - and will also be in the news. And your coverage if it is excellent (as always).

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11Gengar11🇨🇦's avatar

Good - still have a niggling worry about a commment Trump made - something along the lines of ‘not mentioning it now, but I am sure it will get out’

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Shankar Narayan's avatar

You really cant listen to him. You need to look at what he does.

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11Gengar11🇨🇦's avatar

That is fair. I will try to stay focussed on actions.

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Wayne C's avatar

Great post and perspective. I agree with your position that Putin came to Alaska carrying his desperation like luggage. He needed something - anything - to fracture the U.S.-Europe partnership: a pause in weapons, a crack in sanctions, the faintest sign of weakness. For Ukraine, the message is clear: there is no trust to be found in Putin, in Trump, or in America itself.

Putin seeks Ukraine’s destruction. Trump treats it as a bargaining chip. And America, distracted and divided, is no longer a steady hand.

For Kyiv, survival rests on its own resolve and on Europe’s commitment, not on the shifting promises of Washington. Caveat emptor.

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Andrew's avatar

Thanks Shankar … you were absolutely right in your previous post about the need for Ukraine to throw everything at Russia’s brief incursion and crush it before it gained momentum (and/or prestige for Putin). Too bad about Mamulya’s lost boys.

I too am glad that the repatriation of stolen children was raised in the meeting. They seemed to have disappeared completely from popular awareness.

… but what’s with Trump’s weird phone call to Lukashenko - someone he describes as a well-respected statesman! Come on.

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Shankar Narayan's avatar

Not sure. And Lukashenko did say a ton of shit about Trump. Need to check if there are any political prisoners in Belarus. TRUMP loved that theater.

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Robert Jaffee's avatar

“But the biggest victory of the day? Trump didn't take Putin's bait. Make no mistake: Putin came prepared with his KGB playbook, some carefully crafted wedge designed to crack the alliance between America and Europe. That's his obsession, his strategic imperative—breaking Western unity.”

Seriously Shankar, this is your takeaway from this meeting? I saw the exact opposite: a man completely out of his depth, with advisors just as clueless as he is. Rubio fired all of the State Department experts (over 1,500 diplomats), the NSc has been gutted and Trump showed up with Witkoff (incompetent and possible Russian stooge) and Rubio, who looked like a deer caught in the headlights.

Additionally, Trump said if a ceasefire agreement wasn’t solidified, there would be hell to pay. Yet, all we hear are crickets. No sanctions, he didn’t even bother to reinstall the banking sanctions he released two weeks ago.

Moreover, he gave a mass murderer a platform, rolled out the red carpet, acted like he just saw his best friend for the first time in years, and like in Helsinki, he praised Putin and their friendship repeatedly. Who does this?? I’d call the affair: HELL-sinki: 2:0!

Not to mention, Trump walked away saying it’s in Ukraine’s hands now. Thats it? A two hour meeting and a weak response? This doesn’t sound like a victory to me, it sounds very much like capitulation.

Furthermore, is this how we measure success with Trump? He didn’t give away the store? There’s a reason for that, Trump is no longer in control. And you can’t make progress when one of the parties isn’t even invited to the SHOW!

Honestly, to me, this has all the same familiar hallmarks of the Surrender Agreement, I mean DOHA Agreement; and we all how well that worked out for the Afghans: unless of course, you were the Taliban and Al Qaeda.

Bottom line; this negotiation was a distraction plain and simple, just as many of us suspected. It served no purpose other than to distract from Trump’s personal issues and a cratering economy, and the results speak for themselves.

Moreover, Putin controlled the stage, set the tone and showed Trump who was boss. He even addressed the press first, which is not only unheard of, but against protocol.

That said, the only good that came out of this spectacle is that Trump didn’t throw Zelenskyy under the bus in public (who knows what was said behind closed doors). In addition, our NATO and European allies recognized that they can no longer trust the United States going forward, and will look to make separate security and economic agreements away from the United States. I wouldn’t be surprised if talk begins for the complete disbanding of NATO sometime into the future.

Finally, what you claim is a a Trump win, I see as European leverage. The $50 billion in current arms sales to NATO and hundreds of billions in future military spending by Europe to our Military Industrial Complex (MIC) is all the leverage the Europeans need to keep Trump in line; for now.

Otherwise, it was a very productive meeting. I can’t wait for Trump to visit Moscow; I sure he and Putin will solve world hunger and Middle East peace! IMHO…:)

FYI: incredible news for Ukraine!🇺🇦

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Shankar Narayan's avatar

Remember ukraine will get 0 patriots. What did I say and what happened? Not fair. I can't lie. And I won't. I have no problem in making a mistake but never going to say things that are aimed at comfort (lie).

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Robert Jaffee's avatar

What do you mean lies? I’m not asking you to lie, I just don’t understand how your analysis points to success? What exactly is the measurement you’re using to define the word, because it is clearly open to interpretation. From my perspective, Putin got exactly what he wanted; legitimacy and more time.

That said, I truly appreciate your analysis and mostly think you’re spot on, and I know I’m no expert here, but it appears we’re now measuring success on a scale of 0 to 1, and I just don’t understand it.

I’m just not sure how any of this is a win. And I’m sorry if you think I’m being rude, it’s not my intention. Trump showcases a war criminal and greets him with open arms, so I’d at least expect something more substantial from a meeting like this. Not, “it’s up to Zelenskyy.” What does this even mean?

And let’s not forget, Ukraine is being leveled on a daily basis, so I’m just a bit perplexed from your viewpoint. Do your European contacts in any of the NATO states believe the same?

Whats is the European viewpoint, or better yet, Zelenskyy’s takeaway? Do they share your viewpoint or is there even a consensus yet? I guess we will wait and see.

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Shankar Narayan's avatar

It is ok. We can disagree. I am good. I know what I wrote here. If you ask me I will write the whole thing again, word by word. Wont change a single sentence. I know you wont agree to that. But that is actually ok. Nothing wrong with that.

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Michael Pon's avatar

I think the benefits to Putin from this meeting are overrated except perhaps inside Russia itself. I don't think Putin's behavior helped his profile toward the Pro-Russia MAGAts. So, probably both Trump and Putin are net-losers geo-politically?

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Judith Auerbach's avatar

Well said ,Robert

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SomeNYDude (he/him)'s avatar

Thank you Mr. Narayan. May the EU and Ukraine build on the small wins.

Fox News said it did not go well for Trump.

Ms. Ben-Ghiat nailed it and said the meeting legitimized Russian power and weakened the US.

https://open.substack.com/pub/lucid/p/the-make-russia-great-again-summit

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Shankar Narayan's avatar

Yes. Ben is right. I was only addressing the alliance at this moment. Long term impact on US story ...if I write that will be horrible. Love to write that because it will be a complex piece and I can touch so many areas. But don't have time. Have to focus on Ukraie and the allies response to the war. May be one day.

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SomeNYDude (he/him)'s avatar

There will be plenty of time to write those stories. We appreciate your voice on Ukraine. What is happening to Ukraine and Palestinians are not isolated events, they are intertwined.

Global hegemony by bad faith actors who want to destroy the shaky international order, courtesy of Russia and Israel.

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Pamela Frazier's avatar

Borrowing this line: it is crucial to stay focused, even when everything seems to be collapsing around you.

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Shankar Narayan's avatar

Yes. Europe and Ukraine could have messed this up. It was their focus that placed the guardrails.

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Sundar Srinivasan's avatar

I think it’s almost a given now , Saturday evening EST, that Ukraine will have to give away Donbas and at least parts of the newly occupied areas to end the war, from what I am reading about Trump’s post meeting call to the Europeans and Zelensky. Europeans seem open to it provided the USA and Europe can guarantee the security, no other conditions attached.

If it comes to that, I say the thief came for Kiev and Ukraine itself, let him run away with Donbas. Let the Ukrainians pee on a statue of him to mark the treaty

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Shankar Narayan's avatar

Yes. I heard about the discussions. My sources confirm what you just said. Ze said no. So they are talking. Looks like Trump said he is OK with security guarantees but the issue us if you give Donbas ...khahkiv will fall well inside the first wave of the next attack. Nothing confirmed yet. Monday ze visit will be critical

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Sundar Srinivasan's avatar

The European leaders are flying over to be with Zelenskyy. Great news ! I was dreading a repeat of the bullying by JD and DT.

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Donald Sinclair Richardson's avatar

Very intelligent advice that must be heeded.

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Gary Fissel's avatar

I don't think Shankar should automatically assume that Euro-paid U.S. weapons will appear in Ukraine. We need to see it happen.

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Shankar Narayan's avatar

2 Patriots are in Ukraine. After the July 11th confirmation made by Trump.

I understand why you said that, but looking at the way things have gone, there is very little room for the US to back off from here. Think of it like a container ship. The ship left the dock. If you want to stop you have to drop anchor, but you are just about leaving the harbor. And there is a ton of photographers watching your ship ....taking photographs. And you are the kind of captain when you go to sleep you dont think of your wife or kids but think of flash lights.

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Richard Bedingfield's avatar

I know you are usually right and I always value your views whether it is what I want to see or not. Keep up the good work.

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Shankar Narayan's avatar

I know. It's ok. We can disagree. Otherwise we will become the marinated MAGA.

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Chris (CJ Fitz)'s avatar

An excellent summary, particularly of the psychology at hand.

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JBO's avatar

Good analysis!

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Sara Frischer's avatar

Thank you Shankar. As you know my Ukrainian Flag is Flying. Secure the ammunition, patriots, planes everything for Ukraine. I just saw a headline which said that President Zelensky will be in D.C. on Monday to meet with trump..... I would hope another European Leader would be there as well, for balance. I am never hopeful when it comes to trump. One thing he said was in his and putins entourage at this meeting were 'business people' who were hoping that with a good outcome of yesterdays soiree they could 'make some deals', I cut back to 2 cups of coffee a day to help me sleep. Nothing happening gives me rest.

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Shankar Narayan's avatar

Yes. Trump did try to sweet talk Putin with money. But once you kill one million humans, you become a very different person. That is the part Trump refuses to understand. But that is also because he brings his own needs into the picture. Political needs.

But no need to worry Sara. We are in a very good spot at the moment. Excellent considering where it was one week ago.

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Sara Frischer's avatar

Shankar, when I saw that Ursula von der Leyen will be joining President Zelensky in DC in the meetings I felt much better, Thank you Shankar. We need everyone to stand up against t&p https://kyivindependent.com/eus-von-der-leyen-to-join-zelensky-in-washington-talks/

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Shankar Narayan's avatar

Lol

T&P. Love tht

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Sara Frischer's avatar

Hi Shankar I just tuned in for ten free minutes of MSNBC and it appears a good size group of members of "the Coalition of the Willing" are attending the meeting on Monday. I am glad Velchi is filling this information in quickly. Here we Go!

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Shankar Narayan's avatar

Neat

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Sara Frischer's avatar

fortunately an app which carries msnbc live- no images - as if listening to a radio started functioning again. It shut down 4 months ago. I'm TUNE(d)IN

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Paul Croisiere's avatar

Accelerate Europe arming Ukraine proportionate to weapons used on them. Flood artillery, drones, and small unit capability to bury Russian invaders in autumn mud.

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Robot Bender's avatar

I disagree. Give Ukraine the weapons it needs to kick Russia's ass out and make it stick. Proportionality only draws things out.

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Paul Croisiere's avatar

Absolutely. I mean no prevarication like the previous Admin that was always afraid of "escalating" by the simplest weapons delivery, and ruinously self deterred.

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Richard Bedingfield's avatar

Not quite what I expected from you. As much as I would like to accept your positive analysis, I am not yet convinced that there is any cause for optimism. Trump still clearly wants an effective surrender or neutralisation of Ukraine which puts him on the side of Russia supporters. I would rather wait until President Zelenski has met Trump again to see where this is going. Ceding territory to Putin is not sensible if Russian aggression is to be ended. I have just read the very good book about Donbas by Victoria Donovan (Life in Spite of Everything, Tales from the Ukrainian East) which shows how wrong is Putin's version of history. He wants the mineral and industrial wealth of Ukraine.

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Shankar Narayan's avatar

Sorry. But not here to give you comfort. But will give you the truth. And you have seen it. Over and over.

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Michael Ann Ochs's avatar

I thought Putin didn't look as confident as he did in Helsinki. Even though Putin was directing stagecraft and Trump played into it, I heard a bit of desperation in his lecture about Alaska. We are not friends with Russia as long as Putin remains in control and no amount of revising history will make that acceptable. Artic cooperation was briefly mentioned. The power struggle there is real now. US should not cooperate in any way there with Russia.

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