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SomeNYDude (he/him)'s avatar

Wes O’Donnell mentioned Japan is sharing their Synthetic Aperture Radar with Ukraine. The system can see through clouds and see how the earth has changed with extreme detail.

Not a replacement for Starlink, but another tool for Ukraine to bludgeon Russia’s war machine.

Europe’s move to sanction the tankers, the producers, and the financers of the oil will be effective.

Two notes, Starmer’s greatest success may be on foreign policy. He needs some domestic wins. Carney does need to step up. He got elected recently. I expect Canada will step up to help Ukraine more when things settle. Italy is surprising and good news.

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Shankar Narayan's avatar

Yea. Not enough.

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TrueCanuck's avatar

Something that I've. Been noticing is that our PM doesn't announce to the world what he's working on, like so many other "leaders". By not telling everyone what he's doing, he has a better chance at success, and to put others back on their heels. So not hearing specifics about what the PM is doing doesn't mean he isn't doing anything. While I always advocate for transparency in our government, there are times where transparency can prevent success, and right now, I would rather out PM be madly thrashing on the levers behind the scenes that sitting in an office throwing threats around like someone else we all know.

In terms of actions that can be taken, the most productive action that comes to mind is to partner with Ukraine on drone manufacturing. We in Canada have materials that they need. We have safe manufacturing sites (empty factories) that can be repurposed, we have people that can help, and learn, how Ukraine has been so successful in their drone program. And while drones aren't the only need, they are a significant one, and one that Canada can help with. With a partnership related to drone manufacturing and modification, Ukraine can benefit from higher delivery rates, Canada can employ people, learn from what Ukraine is doing, and augment both our own military readiness while providing Ukraine with more deployable units. And let's face it, we have some pretty intelligent people in Canada that can improve on designs, add capabilities that perhaps Ukraine hasn't thought of, all while establishing a world class drone manufacturing base.

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Robot Bender's avatar

That could also open a new market for Canadian defense sales to other Western countries and allies.

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SomeNYDude (he/him)'s avatar

Love it and agree on PM Carney. He works behind the scenes. I am impressed with his level headedness.

Securing drone manufacturing to help Ukraine is a win-win for Canada, Ukraine, and Europe. It allows Canada to learn more about anti-drone changes too.

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Bruce Maslack's avatar

Let Ukraine lead the way for mutual benefits.

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Michael Portelance's avatar

Yes, we need to give Carney time. His To Do List is daunting.

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Shankar Narayan's avatar

Agree. But isn't that why we got him there. So he better get going.

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Simon Cast's avatar

I'm not so sure about Starlink issue. OneWeb suddenly went quiet and there was that very large order for terminals. I suspect that OneWeb & Ukraine are keeping quite about it so that it is a surprise when Starlink is switched off and things keep going bang.

At this point though Elon has burned all his bridges, turning off Starlink would likely be the end of SpaceX.

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Shankar Narayan's avatar

I hope so. It was the german government's decision to pay for for Eutelsat/oneweb terminals that got Mr. Genius so rattled that he went after them. But it was just a very small piece. Like few thousand terminals. Even that Mr. Genius could not accept. Sir is a monopoly, if you buy anything from his competitor, he will be come after you. Unbelievable. Anyways, I sincerely hope Europe does not push this to the backburner, it has full potential to blow up on the face.

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Simon Cast's avatar

I'm reasonable sure Ukraine wouldn't let the issue die. Remember that Europe is now much more quiet about what is being delivered and when which is the sensible approach. This announcing what you are going to deliver was terrible Opsec.

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Dr. Steven Quest's avatar

I agree. I’m surprised we’re not hearing more about Eutelsat, seeing more EU investment, seeing the stock move, etc.

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Simon Cast's avatar

Eutelsat's share price skyrocketed just after the original Starlink fervor.

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Dr. Steven Quest's avatar

Then fell back just as dramatically. A Starlink alternative is needed now more than ever.

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Shankar Narayan's avatar

Yes. Kupier will get there. They have the money and also the tech. But it will take four more years and they are once again a US company. Yikes, I can't believe I am saying that. Good lord.

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Dr. Steven Quest's avatar

Bezos is a slightly less noxious oligarch than Musk. I wouldn’t risk military satellite connections on either one of them.

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Simon Cast's avatar

Yeah because there wasn't immediate announcements and lots of press releases. The traders were trading the rumor and decided to sell on the 'news'

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Nick Gardner's avatar

Hi ! The word you want to use is "quiet" (= no noise, no communication. The radio station has gone quiet again. The children are awfully quiet). The word you use is "quite" (= very. He is quite old = He is very old). Please correct your message. Thanks.

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Simon Cast's avatar

Happy now?

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Shankar Narayan's avatar

HAHA.

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Richard Bedingfield's avatar

What we now have is recognition that explosion is not the only armament to determine a war. The economy of an aggressor can be attacked to much greater effect than trying to kill each other if it can be used to convince the attacking country that it will gain nothing but hardship to their own country to continue. It will need to be very effective to make a dictator accept defeat or to make an honourable withdrawal.

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Shankar Narayan's avatar

Econ is the best way to win this war.

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TheDurableDon's avatar

We also know that psychological operations are effective weapons of war. Russia has been using them on the United States for a couple of decades, to incredibly potent effect. He has convinced half of our population to effectively castrate their own country…

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Stephen ONeill's avatar

I am cautiously optimistic, but we will see if the sanctions have "teeth". Trump's self-removal from the bigger picture is a definitely a positive since he is a human "wrecking-ball" in whatever he engages in. For American companies in the MIC (Military Industrial Complex) the old saying about "where there is a will, there is a way" will see to it that important components will find their way to Europe...and Ukraine...when the money is dangled. After all, look how many American parts are to be found in Russian missiles already. 2025 is the pivotal year for Ukraine...and for Europe as well.

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Shankar Narayan's avatar

Yes. There is a $38 billion proof. It will work. They have to go after the individuals and they to have come down hard on Greece. I am never ever spending a penny on that country ever again.

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Andrew's avatar
1dEdited

Go, go Shankar … we’re with you!

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PhilsThom's avatar

The combined side effects of both the US taking itself off the table viz a viz Ukraine and Trump’s on again off again tariff policy (together with its laxity towards top secret documents and communications) is to marginalise the USA in relation to diplomacy, trade, intel, and defence.

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Michiel Nijk's avatar

When Musk killed Starlink, Starlink was a gift from Musk (or the tab was picked up by the DOD, I don't remember). But now Poland is picking up the tab for Ukraine's Starlink.

Also, Starlink is now a much bigger profit machine for Musk than Tesla, which must be close to running red numbers. Musk cannot afford to lose Starlink customers.

And customers lose he will if he breaks the Starlink contract with Poland...

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Shankar Narayan's avatar

I agree, there are problems for him. But never forget he is worlds top rated narcissist. And he also have other billionaires backing him. All of them want to kill the EU. Never ever underestimate hatred.

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Michiel Nijk's avatar

Question is - does hatred top remaining ultra-rich? Billionaires generally don't help each other out money-wise.

And Elon is in kind of a bind right now.

I mean, you could be right, but I'm not so sure he'll pull the plug these days...

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Norbert Bollow's avatar

“Some security experts I speak to in Europe believe Trump just handed Putin a major win by stepping off the board. I’m not entirely convinced. It could become a win — but only if Europe fails to seize the moment.”

I see it the other way round: It looks to me like Europe’s “big four” have finally dealt with Trump in the only way that a bully can be dealt with effectively: By means of a show of strength. I think that they have assessed correctly that there is no way that Trump will say or do anything worthwhile if he stays involved, while his continued involvement would come with high risks of him doing something really bad at Putin’s request, like e.g. promising to end US sanctions or US recognition of Russia’s conquest of Crimea. So they moved to put him in a situation where really the only plausible move for him was to take himself off the board for now (alas it probably isn’t permanent). I think that they’ve played this very well.

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Romulo Skagen's avatar

Europe took too long to grow a spine, and still has a ways to go but this is good news. I assume their logic in punishing the ports and countries that allow the shadow fleet to dock is a way to avoid military action against these ships, and thus the Russians who seem ready to defend them. A delicate dance.

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Shankar Narayan's avatar

yes

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Michiel Nijk's avatar

I'm not sure Carney can afford to send hardware to Ukraine right now. Most people think Caving Don's threat to make Canada the 51st State of US is diversion, or bluster, or both. But of that I'm not so sure either.

When has Caving Don not done what he 'promised'?

We cannot rule out that Caving Don will order an invasion down the line, especially when the US economy goes off the rails. Nothing causes rallying behind The Leader like a little war.

If Caving Don decides to invade Canada, the latter is going to need all the hardware it can muster...

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Shankar Narayan's avatar

Oh, yes he can. Canada makes one of the worlds best Armored personnel Carriers-- Roshel Senator APC. Ukraine keeps getting regular dose of it, but either they or the EU pays for it. How about Canada paying for it and send hundred units every freaking month. It will go a long way. Just one example.

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Craig lang's avatar

Europe already flinched when it tried to board a blacklisted ship, and backed off when a single Russian fighter appeared overhead. talk is cheap, unless you are willing to call Putin's bluff the oil will continue to flow.

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Shankar Narayan's avatar

Yes, sir. It did happen. But you also have to understaand that jet had its transponders switched off and it was flying in a undeclared flight path with no radio contact. If they had shot it down, Putin would have used it for escalation. So not shooting down the jet was not the mistake. But Macron or Merz or Starmer not coming out on TV immediately and telling Europe what has happened and promise that they will shoot the next jet down--that was a mistake.

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Andrew's avatar
1dEdited

I believe the bluff just got called, finally, by Europe who will now need to enforce it with more gusto than before.

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Richard Bedingfield's avatar

Trump is alleged to have said yesterday that Putin doesn't want a peace deal because he is winning but he then failed to back the new sanctions. That confirms to me in the UK that he will prefer to let Putin win so that it is over sooner, no matter what the consequences for Ukraine and the rest of NATO countries. Both men hate and fear President Zelenski so we really do now have to press ahead without Trump and the GOP.

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Paul Meccano's avatar

You seem to be in the mix, but gaining all and every bit of info, especially at this stage (essentially war+3 footing) is perhaps too much to ask.

I agree, action upon action, not word upon word, is how we escalate and go on to win the day…just the day, but hopefully doubling down with further action…, so, maybe, rather than crossing fingers we should now trust in the machine that remains democratic at heart, bright for the wars we have all fought over many centuries, deft and also decisive when faced with the crux, because if not then the GAME is still afoot — we only go for the throat when we think we’ve lost.

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Dorothy Lewis's avatar

Great story, and a bright light for the future of the new world, minus the U.S.

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Baxter Wilson's avatar

I sure the hell hope so…it’s good to see forward movement. Thanks for the update and always great to read your stack!

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JBO's avatar

Canada doesn’t have a lot inventory to send anywhere. We barely have enough for our own training. It’s been a sore spot for years. Many years.

We do send boots though.

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