342 Russian Tankers Blacklisted. Here’s What Comes Next.

Trump Walked Off the Board. Europe Moved In.

Almost all of them.

Around noon yesterday, Europe announced the most sweeping sanctions package to date. In a single move, it blacklisted 342 oil tankers — more than doubling the previous count of 153.

This round of sanctions on Russia is the most wide-sweeping since the start of the war, together with new hybrid, human rights, and chemical weapons-related sanctions.

In this 17th package, we include Surgutneftegas - a Russian oil giant - as well as almost 200 vessels in Russia’s shadow fleet. While Putin feigns interest in peace, more sanctions are in the works.

Russia’s actions and those who enable Russia face severe consequences. The longer Russia persists with its illegal and brutal war, the tougher our response will be — Kaja Kallas, High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy and chair of the Foreign Affairs Council

These aren't just any ships. They're the core of Russia’s shadow fleet.

This is how Putin moves crude across the world — using a secretive network of aging, unregistered tankers that operate far outside the rules of international shipping. These vessels sail with their AIS transponders turned off, switch flags frequently, and often operate under fake ownership. At ports, they mix Russian oil with legitimate cargo from other sources to obscure its origin — a trick that allows Moscow to dodge the EU’s price cap and keep the cash flowing.

They’re called a “shadow fleet” because that’s exactly how they function — in the shadows. No oversight. No transparency. Just oil, money, and loopholes.

But with this blacklist, Europe is doing something clever: shifting the pressure downstream. Any port that lets these tankers dock — or any buyer that takes their cargo — now risks being sanctioned too. China might brush that off. But most of the world can’t. If Europe gets serious, it can force millions of Russian barrels — including those sold to India — back into the books.

Blacklisting works.

Isn’t that precisely why the EU and the United States avoided doing it until now? Yesterday, 189 tankers were added to the list. Did the U.S. and Europe just discover these ships? Of course not. They’ve known about them for years. The shadow fleet didn’t suddenly appear last Tuesday.

The truth is: Western powers chose not to act. Until the second half of last year, the U.S. and EU were still tiptoeing around the issue. Even then, progress was slow — incremental blacklists here and there. Only now are they finally nearing the full scale of Russia’s shadow fleet, estimated at around 400 tankers.

Why the restraint? Simple: they didn’t want to kill the trade — just trim it. Western policymakers quietly preferred to let some Russian oil flow, hoping to shave off profits without disrupting global markets. Knocking out Russia’s 10 million barrels a day is like detonating a minefield that’s been buried for decades. No one wanted to be the one to step first.

The EU’s price cap was never a blunt weapon. It chipped away at the edges. And it worked — to a point. Russian oil revenues in March 2025 were 13.7% lower than March 2023, and over 20% lower than March 2022. Cumulatively, the sanctions have cost Russia about $38 billion in lost oil revenue.

But Europe never played to win. It played not to lose. And when that’s your strategy, don’t blame the other side when you start losing. Putin saw the hesitation — and exploited it.

That hesitation may finally be over.

Because this isn’t just a crackdown on ghost tankers anymore. The EU is now reaching deeper — targeting the money behind them:

“In order to further curb Russia’s revenue sources, the EU is also imposing restrictive measures on Surgutneftegaz, a major Russian oil company which provides substantial revenues to the Russian government, directly fuelling its war effort. An important Russian oil shipping company is also listed.”

Europe is now targeting both the tools and the cash pipelines behind them. And this escalation didn’t come out of nowhere. The political shift began last summer, when British PM Keir Starmer took office in July. He moved quickly against the shadow fleet — and then brought the EU with him. His biggest breakthrough came in January, when he convinced the Biden administration to sanction 183 oil tankers on January 10th, 2025. That was the first serious blow.

Then came the Trump fiasco.

Last week, Europe was preparing to act. They gave Putin a 24-hour ultimatum: agree to a 30-day ceasefire or face new sanctions. Then Trump barged in. Out of nowhere, he told Ukraine to start negotiations. “Immediately,” he ordered. Kyiv complied, sending a delegation to Istanbul. Russia showed up, demanded full Ukrainian surrender, and walked. On Monday, Trump called Putin’s refusal to cease fire “excellent” — and took himself out of the peace process entirely.

The very next day, Europe stopped waiting. No more stalling. No more diplomatic charades. They hit Russia’s oil machine hard. After watching Trump fumble, bluff, and retreat, the Europeans finally saw the writing on the wall. For once, they didn’t dither. They acted.

And it landed.

And it’s not just sanctions.

M113 armored personnel carriers

In a surprising shift, Italy — the perennial "talk, never act" player — is finally moving. Reports indicate Rome will send 400 M113 armored personnel carriers to Ukraine. Even more significant: they’re granting Kyiv access to one of their military satellites. There’s also chatter that Italy might deliver a SAMP/T long-range air defense system — one of the few in Europe capable of intercepting ballistic missiles. If Italy is stepping up, then the direction of travel is right.

Australia, too, is packing up 49 of its Abrams tanks for delivery to Ukraine. Not symbolic help — real armor.

And yet… silence from Canada.

If Mark Carney is serious about reshaping Canadian trade, about reducing dependence on the United States and binding more tightly to Europe, then now is the moment to prove it. Not in speeches — in deliveries. That’s how you pull a continent closer. You invest in its security before you count on its markets.

Talk less. Ship more.

Some security experts I speak to in Europe believe Trump just handed Putin a major win by stepping off the board. I’m not entirely convinced. It could become a win — but only if Europe fails to seize the moment.

Trump’s retreat means he’s unlikely to approve any future U.S. military aid. But that vacuum isn’t just a liability — it’s an opportunity. Europe can step in, pay up, take delivery, and transfer weapons to Ukraine directly. And if Europe puts down a $10 billion order and Trump tries to block it — do we really think Raytheon and Lockheed Martin will sit quietly while their wealthiest client is publicly insulted and cut off?

Unlikely. In terms of hardware access, Europe and Ukraine are not in a bad spot. Not yet.

Even on intelligence sharing, Trump’s new “this ain’t our war” posture weakens his ability to sabotage. What’s he going to say? That since it’s not America’s war, the U.S. should help Putin win? That Washington should cut off a country it just signed a critical minerals deal with — one that finally gives the U.S. access to rare earths it never had before? That doesn’t sell. Not even to his base.

So again: Europe and Ukraine are not in a bad spot — even on U.S. intelligence. Not yet.

The one wild card is Starlink.

If Ukraine begins to gain the upper hand again — and Russian forces start taking real battlefield losses — then “bro” and his sidekicks, the ones who desperately want to keep Putin in play so they can dismantle the European Union, may do… who knows what. We’ve already seen what happened when Ukraine tried to take out Russia’s Black Sea Fleet. What are the odds it doesn’t happen again?

The problem is: you can’t afford to find out.

And as of now, Europe still hasn’t moved to fix that vulnerability. That’s the last real crack in the wall.

Other than that — the story has flipped. What looked like a fractured and slow-moving response just one week ago now has momentum. Sanctions have landed. Weapons are moving. Even Italy is showing up.

This time, Europe doesn’t have to wait for Washington. It just has to not blink. And if it doesn’t, this won’t be Putin’s win. It’ll be his beginning of the end.

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