Ukraine's Artillery Hunger Revealed the Brutal Truth: America Can't Keep Up

While America Stumbled, One Man Built Ukraine's Lifeline—And Democracy's Future

I like people who don't stop because they reached the top.

Apple and Nokia did not stop their business after reaching the top, but each for their own reasons refused to honor what made them reach the top. One fell to pieces in a short period and the other became a financial services company utilizing the moat created by its software and hardware past.

Some of you may have noticed my evidence-less assertion in the past that Rheinmetall, which currently produces closer to 1,900 artillery shells per day, would one day reach 4,000 and maybe even push a little bit beyond that. CEO Armin Papperger never mentioned that number, neither did the German government.

That did not stop me from making that declaration, and I keep repeating that target number over and over. There are multiple reasons why I think they will hit that 4,000 shells per day mark and likely even go beyond it.

Let me explain, why I think that way.

American defense contractors had a much stronger backbone and access to far more money than Rheinmetall. Their supply/logistics chains were well established, and the US Congress kept coming up with tens of billions of dollars in aid for Ukraine. Trump never forgets to remind us that the United States has spent hundreds of billions of dollars to aid Ukraine.

And yet, the following happened.

While the United States struggled with supply chain bottlenecks, equipment shortages, and unproven technologies, Rheinmetall surged ahead. The U.S. Army had set an ambitious goal to produce 100,000 155mm shells per month by October 2025, but as of mid-2025, they remained stuck at just 40,000 rounds per month—the same level they had achieved by September 2024.

American contractors faced equipment shortages where critical machinery simply wasn't "sitting on a shelf somewhere," forcing dependence on international suppliers with extended lead times. General Dynamics even received a formal cure notice for poor performance at their Texas facility, where they were struggling with unproven "21st-century technologies" that had never been tested for 155mm production.

Meanwhile, Papperger had positioned Rheinmetall to absorb the global supply chain capacity. Every ton of TNT, every pound of nitrocellulose, every piece of specialized manufacturing equipment that Rheinmetall secured meant less availability for everyone else—allies and enemies alike.

Now, it is logical to think that somewhere between 2022 and 2023, Rheinmetall received a huge order that allowed them to lift their production numbers, isn't it?

Nope.

Their first massive order from Germany came on June 20, 2024.

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CEO Armin Papperger moved in long before the orders came in. Maybe he knew they would come. Maybe he didn't. But by the time the German government took the decision, his company had already established the supply chain, cranked up its factories, and they pulled ahead of the United States.

That was not a decision taken based on financial metrics or risk or all the other shenanigans that happen inside a boardroom. It was a decision made to put Germany, Ukraine, Europe, and the democratic world first. There was a gap. Papperger saw it. He knew his company could deliver and he dragged his company to it.

Once you see things that way, then of all the people in the world, Papperger would have known that 4,000 shells per day production rate is where Ukraine's frontline becomes defensible.

Yes, that is the magic number, and it will always be.

Yesterday, the world's number one artillery shell maker opened its new munitions plant in Unterlüß, Germany. The massive 30,000 m² site is Europe's largest munitions factory that is expected to bring a capacity of 350,000 shells online by 2027.

Rheinmetall plant in Unterlüß, Germany

Rheinmetall has opened factories in Germany, Ukraine, Bulgaria, and the United Kingdom. Spread out. So yes, Rheinmetall reached the top of the artillery shell world by the end of 2024. Since then, they have only accelerated, not slowed down.

I don't know what CEO Armin Papperger is going to do after he crosses 4K production per day. If I were to guess, he will ease up a bit after he sees 6K clean.

Not very sure.

Just one man and one team have now created a solid floor for all of Europe. And that floor strengthens every day. A solid floor for the entire democratic world.

Did you hear about the mini-dictators walkathon discussion in Beijing where Xi Jinping, Putin, and Kim Jong Un discussed immortality?

This wasn't some metaphorical conversation. On September 3rd, during their military parade, they were literally caught on a hot mic discussing organ transplants and living to 150. Putin's interpreter was heard saying "human organs can be constantly transplanted so that people can live younger and younger, and even become immortal," while Xi responded that people may live to 150 years old in this century. Kim Jong Un stood there grinning as his older counterparts fantasized about eternal life.

They are not joking. They are all really thinking about it when every living human—you, me, your kids, my kids and the ones who come after them—all of them become a means to extend their own lives. When narcissism starts at the baseline of your psychopathic profile it will be there forever; the idea is unavoidable.

Every dictator believes in it, it feeds their fragile ego. It soothes their insecurities. The hot mic moment revealed what we already knew: to them, human lives are just spare parts for their immortality project.

A million Russian dead will make no difference whatsoever to Putin. How many million more do I need to get what I want would be his question. China fears being a lone dictatorship in a world of democracies. Having Russia threaten one end while North Korea threatens the other end is simply too perfect for China.

They will not allow that protective shield to vanish. They will fight for it. That photo op of Xi-Putin-Kim wasn't just ceremonial—it was a pointed message to the western world, broadcast to 1.9 billion online viewers. Pulling India lock-stock and barrel would have provided great balance, but Trump made an unholy mess out of it.

So, yes, having an unmatchable artillery shell production rate is a must for the foreseeable future. Maybe for the next four-five decades. It will be one of the keys to holding peace in the western world. Exceptional air-defense and overwhelming artillery shell production is the baseline you need to keep the peace.

And there is one more advantage Rheinmetall brings to the fold. This steady and relentless growth puts intense pressure on the entire shell production logistics chain. If we keep soaking up the core products, the other side will end up having less and the cost of manufacturing will keep rising for them. So the strain Rheinmetall is creating is valuable.

My personal recommendation would be for Rheinmetall to hold the current pace until they breach 6,000 shells production per day. I hope they start working on developing an equivalent for HIMARS, something that can replicate the precision of ATACMS, with a similar range of 300km.

If Rheinmetall can do that, then we end up covering the highly critical 70km to 300km range.

It really is pointless to discuss the cost and fall into the illusion that we could use that money to educate people, to feed the hungry. Absolutely true, but if you believe La-la land is real, why have a police force then? Take that money and build roads. Before you finish laying the road, they would have taken control of the government, looted everything, and there will be so much chaos in the streets that the beautiful roads and schools you dreamed of would be no-entry zones.

Both the far right and far left use this to keep us dumb and hold us down. Fuck the right and fuck the left. Our freedom has a cost. It will always carry a price tag. What we need is strong deterrence that can protect our freedom and allow us to pass the democratic world to our kids.

There are seven or eight men in the world and a handful of American oligarchs who want to make us their slaves.

We cannot let them win.

Not this year.

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