Ukraine Reaches Safety. Russia Reaches Limits.

A clean win requires addressing one last variable.

At least once a month, I’ve written about the one thing that can decide this war for Ukraine: artillery shells. When Elon Musk threatened to pull Starlink earlier this year—a move that could have crippled Ukraine’s drone operations—my answer was simple: drop more shells. Give Ukraine parity with Russia’s artillery fire rate, and everything else becomes manageable.

So when Zelensky announced in the first week of May that Ukraine expects to receive 3 million artillery shells this year, I circled that number. Just that one detail was enough to convince me: Ukraine now has a real pathway to victory. I wrote that on May 4th. The headline said it all: Europe Delivers. Ukraine’s Path to Victory Opens Up.

That announcement pushed me to a simple conclusion: artillery parity with Russia is now just a matter of time. And yesterday, we got confirmation—Ukraine is closing in fast.

---

👉 Ukraine is closing the artillery gap. Russia still has manpower—but not time, not money, and not momentum. Here’s how the balance of firepower is shifting—and what comes next.

Subscribe to read the full story.