Ukraine’s ability to hold the line—and to push Russian ground forces back—hinges on three elements: drones and the Starlink networks they rely on, the rate of artillery fire, and the strength of air defense systems.
A collapse in any one of these pillars can jeopardize the entire defense architecture. For example, dwindling stocks of air-defense missiles and launchers won’t just expose Ukraine’s cities and infrastructure to Russian missile strikes—it could also give Russian fighter jets greater freedom of movement near the front. If air defense drops too low, it could even open the door for Russian forces to breach the line entirely.
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