“Ukraine never got that chance. For years, it was denied the tools to fight a real war. “The Biden administration withheld deep-strike weapons and slow-walked air defense deliveries. That decision did more than just hamper Ukraine’s ability to defend itself — it protected Russian war production capacity. Critical targets inside Russia — missile factories, airbases, weapons depots — were effectively placed off-limits. Ukraine was forced to intercept rather than eliminate.”
Excellent news Shankar, as Europe finally wakes up to the New World Order!
I have a quick question though; what was the impetus for Biden’s intransigence? Was he too old school, cold warrior mentality; believing any small skirmish could escalate to the use of nuclear weapons?
I still have never heard a valid explanation for US refusing to allow Ukraine to take the gloves off. And you’re right, it’s not a strategy, it’s sabotage; only expected by Trump and his team.
Either way, it’s about time they are negating Trump’s policing power and control of the issue! IMHO…:)
Biden tied his own hands behind his back when he made that announcment in march 2022 "If you are expecting American jets flying, it won't." He should have stayed silent. From there it just became too hard to respond. he had assembled a team that was extremely fearful. All putin had to do was to talk about nuclear weapons and Biden will back down. Every single time his team moved forward was due to pressure from Great Britain, who worked the allies really well. People keep saying that it was Biden who held the allies together. NOPE. It was Great Britain and its three prime ministers. Every single one of them. Respect.
As fearful as Biden and Company were, at least they were solidly on the correct side, and supportive(ish). They were not actively working against Ukraine's interests.
Thank you, and you’re right. I guess I never fully paid attention to the conflict from the beginning; assuming the situation was in competent hands, when clearly we gave Biden too much credit.
That said, the adage from Churchill must be true, or at least pre-Trump: “You can always count on the Americans to do the right thing; after they’ve exhausted all other possibilities.”…:)
IMO Biden was scared that if Putin was seen within Russia as losing his war of conquest, that could destabilize his political power, with total uncertainly in regard to what comes next, and in particular, what happens with Russia’s nuclear arsenal.
I fully agree. Acting from visible strength is the one effective way of dealing with bullies. And if in a situation there is no way to act from visible strength, acting from inner / moral strength is the best course of action, like the Ukrainian soldier who radioed “Russian warship, go…”
Understood, but no one was suggesting a coup; and just arming Ukraine enough to bankrupt Russia, is a game of attrition. Unfortunately, when you’re Ukraine, it smells like betrayal.
Especially since we spearheaded the Bucharest Memorandum, guaranteeing Ukraine’s territorial sovereignty, after they agreed to give up its 20,000 Nukes after the fall of the Soviet Union (back in 1994).
Delia, I think your summary explanation of the Biden Administration's intransigence is likely true. We can complain about Sullivan and Biden individually, but I think it comes down to an established power that has held the reins so long it thinks it can dictate the future via its own actions. Allowing others to be act independently and create unknown outcomes is outside the mentality of such a major, old power.
Hi, Delia. Whether America is a dying empire or suffering from a generation too-long in power remains to be seen. I have always had faith in America's ability to self-correct, but there may be a limit to that feature. I believe two deeper problems have now been revealed to all: America's deeply held white male supremacy and the power of the very wealthy to such the country dry. If we cannot establish a more open and egalitarian power structure to counter these forces, we're done.
I agree on all points. The sad fact is no Democrat in power - not even AOC or Sanders - is saying this. That's why I think the USA have to descend into much greater inequality - of wealth and power - before we have a chance of achieving a more egalitarian society. (It took the French five republics to figure it out - we're just getting started.)
The worst national security advisor in the history of United States. No one can beat this guy, EVER. He did Biden in during Afganistan. He did Europe in after Russia invaded. He is possibly dreaming of becoming secretary of state now.
A cold, ruthless strategy could have been to use Ukraine to bleed Russia for the next two decades - by sending Ukraine just enough military support to stay in the war, not win it.
I don't believe that to be the case.
Biden and Sullivan - one of the worst national security advisers ever - were afraid of escalation, nuclear retaliation in particular.
Only when Ukraine was expected to lose ground were both men willing to send bigger hardware, such as Himars, Abrams etc...
I'm not convinced. I think that it WAS a strategy to effectively bleed russia to death. Biden in particular had a strong sense of the historic. I think he saw two things: 1) Putin was never going to stop - he would have to be stopped. But, in this particularly mendacious case, Putin would have to end himself, the cause of his own downfall.
Why did Biden care? Because of the second thing: Biden saw the rise of authoritarianism happening, and given the dissolution of public trust (through the very effective propaganda and disinformation programs executed by Russia and right-wing apparatchiks, perhaps sometimes in coordination with each other), he needed a living example, a foil, for people to see and understand. Nobody wants to be Russia. But that's where authoritarianism takes you.
I also think Biden WAS deeply worried about violent instability in Russia, especially with the precarious state of the US policy - The GOP in the hands of Trump could not help but be a clarion call for stability. Can you imagine Russia falling apart now, with Trump in titular control of the US and the GOP and the oligarchs circling? Where would the Russian nukes end up? It's a fckng nightmare.
It's easy to criticize but when the global buck stops on your desk, you have to think about all this shit. For realz. Not just today, but for a generation.
Something this abomination of an administration is not capable of - unless the plan is feudalism, in which case, they're right on track.
Perhaps I’m sane-washing a feckless agenda. Could be. But the Biden administration showed itself to be competent and cautious in other areas, so this reading of the data makes some
Read the book “War” by Bob Woodward. The Kremlin was making overt threats about the use of tactical nuclear weapons and Russian nuclear doctrine alllows first use under certain circumstances. It’s still a potential threat. Maybe Biden was being over cautious but events can spiral out of control quickly.
I read Woodard’s take, but found it wanting. I fully comprehend that a nuclear threat is always a possibility, but it’s not probable, since although Putin is many things, suicidal; he is not!
Additionally, all of NATO became a threat after the Ukrainian invasion, because Putin has always had grand plans for most of Europe (revive the Russian Empire), and he never stops interfering in western elections, including our own since 2016; as well as trying to turn all of Europe into Hungary or Belarus. Therefore, the stakes have always been high to begin with; Biden just refused to read the memo.
Bottom line; do we allow Putin to get away with these clearly illegal, and destructive policies and tactics against our allies? I don’t think so!
My point, if you are afraid to play the game to win, then you’ve already lost the war before the first battle is ever fought! And when you play against guys like Putin; it’s a zero sum game! IMHO…:)
I understand your point, but I think it’s a BS answer; the go to answer for cowards. “Well, we have to consider the nuclear…..”.
What I mean is a legitimate justification for their intransigence, when they were claiming to the public at the time that they were indeed doing everything possible to help Ukraine prevail. And the real reason for holding back?
Was it because they initially thought Ukraine wouldn’t survive a week, and thought it a lost cause?
Although, even if that’s the case, once it became apparent Ukraine could win, then why hold back? Unless they thought it was in the US’s best interest to prolong the war to weaken Putin indefinitely. Yet, that strategy means they were betraying Ukraine all along; using them as pawns on a chess board.
Get my point? I’m not suggesting any of my hypotheticals could be, or are true; however, I am suggesting that the party line is a bunch of bull!…:)
Yes. Such was the fear. How did India and Pakistan keep figting under the nuclear threshold. Having nuclear weapons cannot become a dicators dream to conquer the world. But I agree, that it was that fear that Putin fully exploited.
Yet, again according to Shankar the current administration is a laughing stock, he repeatedly says that in his articles……
Well, Biden never, ever made a right decision in his lifetime. Just yesterday, I had watched the Manhunt on Al-Qaeda - Bidden was one of the very few to veto to per-sue stopping of Osama killing. Go figure….
Between Sullivan and Garland, Biden chose inaction over action, when action was desperately needed in both cases. Whether unfortunate or complicate, I'm not sure.
The Biden / Sullivan “As long as it takes” facade was a disaster from the start of the war till the trump “peace at any price” fiasco. Ukraine has paid in blood and lost land for the policy incompetence and cowardice of the United States. If European leadership can stop the United States from pushing Ukraine to surrender, and provide support that is in Europe’s power to provide, Ukraine can defeat Russia. And it should.
Just this. Just this. Perfect summation: The Biden / Sullivan “As long as it takes” facade was a disaster from the start of the war till the trump “peace at any price” fiasco
Putin's pooing his pants, hopefully and if he's not, he should be . The Russian reaction, with UN protestations about the EU not looking for peace is laughable and is revealing - they are very worried about this as it will be a game changer if pursued strategically and at scale. I noticed a big ammo depot just went badaboom so let's hope this is now the start of a sustained campaign using taurus to target serious infrastructure. Time to badaboom the Kerch bridge as well, a nice symbolic target as well as hampering logistics. Slava Ukraine.
Overall excellent and informative analysis, as always. Thank you.
..."and the only reason Ukraine is still standing is because of its own ingenuity, not Western strategy." Absolutely. And absolute kudos exclusively to the Ukrainians.
It seems to me there's been an evolution, from fear of Putin's threats to use nuclear retaliation, and the risk of blame, which was very real at the time, and, yes, defensively, to me explains at least in part Biden's team's tempered response and inhibited strategy. No one wants to be blamed [for supposedly provoking Putin] for starting what at the time was the fear of greater escalation. As you say, looking to make it a draw. Timing. And the evolution to no longer fearing that threat, or bluff, we're seeing now. It's taken that evolution though, by all involved, and then the advent of this current administration's bizarreness, and leaving it behind to assume charge, to arrive here now. It takes a village.
Kudos to Merz and to Zelinsky, France and all the others and their teams stepping up to the moment getting to this next stage and now decisively moving forward.
Excellent news from Europe. It's about time and long overdue, as you point out. Bomber bases, especially, will now be vulnerable. Nowhere to hide. The Kerch bridge might also be back on the "menu" for Ukrainian targeters. Taurus was made for structures like this. Deep strike capabilities will further stretch the Russian air defenses...which are already fairly porous...to the breaking point. Putin's ability to sustain the Russian war effort will be put to the test when the critical factories manufacturing missiles and their components come under attack. You can be sure that Ukraine will take full advantage of the relaxed Rules of Engagement (RoE) regarding these weapons.
i've never had a writer be able to hold my interest in politics like you do. Thank you so much for your work! I will be joining your paid subscribers soon.
As usual, the us has blood on it’s hands. Innocent lives lost in our names. It’s nothing short of a goddam miracle that Ukraine still exists at all 🇺🇦💙
About damned time.
“Ukraine never got that chance. For years, it was denied the tools to fight a real war. “The Biden administration withheld deep-strike weapons and slow-walked air defense deliveries. That decision did more than just hamper Ukraine’s ability to defend itself — it protected Russian war production capacity. Critical targets inside Russia — missile factories, airbases, weapons depots — were effectively placed off-limits. Ukraine was forced to intercept rather than eliminate.”
Excellent news Shankar, as Europe finally wakes up to the New World Order!
I have a quick question though; what was the impetus for Biden’s intransigence? Was he too old school, cold warrior mentality; believing any small skirmish could escalate to the use of nuclear weapons?
I still have never heard a valid explanation for US refusing to allow Ukraine to take the gloves off. And you’re right, it’s not a strategy, it’s sabotage; only expected by Trump and his team.
Either way, it’s about time they are negating Trump’s policing power and control of the issue! IMHO…:)
Biden tied his own hands behind his back when he made that announcment in march 2022 "If you are expecting American jets flying, it won't." He should have stayed silent. From there it just became too hard to respond. he had assembled a team that was extremely fearful. All putin had to do was to talk about nuclear weapons and Biden will back down. Every single time his team moved forward was due to pressure from Great Britain, who worked the allies really well. People keep saying that it was Biden who held the allies together. NOPE. It was Great Britain and its three prime ministers. Every single one of them. Respect.
As fearful as Biden and Company were, at least they were solidly on the correct side, and supportive(ish). They were not actively working against Ukraine's interests.
Thank you, and you’re right. I guess I never fully paid attention to the conflict from the beginning; assuming the situation was in competent hands, when clearly we gave Biden too much credit.
That said, the adage from Churchill must be true, or at least pre-Trump: “You can always count on the Americans to do the right thing; after they’ve exhausted all other possibilities.”…:)
Yes, Robert, you asked what I’ve been wondering all along!
Why did Biden hold back our defense of freedom?
If we feared that Putin would actually use his ☢️ nuclear weapons, then we lost before we started!
American cowardice , whether it was Biden and/or the Pentagon accomplished only two things by prolonging the war:
(1) Putin’s unnecessary massacre of 100,000 innocent Ukrainians and
(2) American taxpayers funding the massacre!
IMO Biden was scared that if Putin was seen within Russia as losing his war of conquest, that could destabilize his political power, with total uncertainly in regard to what comes next, and in particular, what happens with Russia’s nuclear arsenal.
100%. Spot On Assessment.
As I said before, and I will repeat this again and again!
Decisions made on the basis of “Fear” are NOT good decisions! Decisions made from fear show weakness and are feckless!
When dealing with a ruthless bully, like Putin, you MUST ALWAYS make decisions from a position of Strength!
Period!
I fully agree. Acting from visible strength is the one effective way of dealing with bullies. And if in a situation there is no way to act from visible strength, acting from inner / moral strength is the best course of action, like the Ukrainian soldier who radioed “Russian warship, go…”
Understood, but no one was suggesting a coup; and just arming Ukraine enough to bankrupt Russia, is a game of attrition. Unfortunately, when you’re Ukraine, it smells like betrayal.
Especially since we spearheaded the Bucharest Memorandum, guaranteeing Ukraine’s territorial sovereignty, after they agreed to give up its 20,000 Nukes after the fall of the Soviet Union (back in 1994).
Delia, I think your summary explanation of the Biden Administration's intransigence is likely true. We can complain about Sullivan and Biden individually, but I think it comes down to an established power that has held the reins so long it thinks it can dictate the future via its own actions. Allowing others to be act independently and create unknown outcomes is outside the mentality of such a major, old power.
Thank, Craig! You may be describing the “sclerotic” behavior of a dying empire!
Yikes!
Or are you only describing a mind-set shared by two guys and perhaps an entire generation of Cold War survivors?
(Aside: I’m not an historian but we need more in-depth analysis of this serious fault in our own foreign policy decision-making!)
I
Hi, Delia. Whether America is a dying empire or suffering from a generation too-long in power remains to be seen. I have always had faith in America's ability to self-correct, but there may be a limit to that feature. I believe two deeper problems have now been revealed to all: America's deeply held white male supremacy and the power of the very wealthy to such the country dry. If we cannot establish a more open and egalitarian power structure to counter these forces, we're done.
Craig, extreme wealth and extreme income inequality destroy the very foundation of democratic society!
Unless and until we eliminate extreme wealth in our society, we will never enjoy freedom again!
We must tax the super rich heavily!
We must rescind Citizens United, and require only PUBLIC FINANCING OF NATIONAL CAMPAIGNS!
I agree on all points. The sad fact is no Democrat in power - not even AOC or Sanders - is saying this. That's why I think the USA have to descend into much greater inequality - of wealth and power - before we have a chance of achieving a more egalitarian society. (It took the French five republics to figure it out - we're just getting started.)
Amen!
Craig, you speak the absolute truth!
Please, Craig, shout it from the mountain tops, and into the valleys far and wide!
Your message must get out to the public and into our political resistance!
Thanks for sharing it!
the answer is joke sullivan was a whimp
Post WWII it may be that our entire foreign policy has been focused on protecting our empire, not on promoting freedom!
Billy, who was Sullivan?
The worst national security advisor in the history of United States. No one can beat this guy, EVER. He did Biden in during Afganistan. He did Europe in after Russia invaded. He is possibly dreaming of becoming secretary of state now.
Sullivan is dreaming of becoming Secretary of State …….when? ….and for whom? He’s made enough mistakes, weak-minded and weak in the knees!
Thanks to people like him , America is no longer the freedom’s champion!
We need fresh, young people eager to promote freedom from a position of strength!
Jake Sullivan was Biden’s National Security Adviser.
Thanks, Robert!
Agreed..:)
…for the same reason biden didn’t go after orange dictator who said he will be dictator, for treason along with all its coup organizers
…this country failed its own citizens and it’s fail the world’s community
IMHO acting in fear never leads to good strategy!
True, it’s what leads us into these conundrums to begin with…:)
A cold, ruthless strategy could have been to use Ukraine to bleed Russia for the next two decades - by sending Ukraine just enough military support to stay in the war, not win it.
I don't believe that to be the case.
Biden and Sullivan - one of the worst national security advisers ever - were afraid of escalation, nuclear retaliation in particular.
Only when Ukraine was expected to lose ground were both men willing to send bigger hardware, such as Himars, Abrams etc...
I'm not convinced. I think that it WAS a strategy to effectively bleed russia to death. Biden in particular had a strong sense of the historic. I think he saw two things: 1) Putin was never going to stop - he would have to be stopped. But, in this particularly mendacious case, Putin would have to end himself, the cause of his own downfall.
Why did Biden care? Because of the second thing: Biden saw the rise of authoritarianism happening, and given the dissolution of public trust (through the very effective propaganda and disinformation programs executed by Russia and right-wing apparatchiks, perhaps sometimes in coordination with each other), he needed a living example, a foil, for people to see and understand. Nobody wants to be Russia. But that's where authoritarianism takes you.
I also think Biden WAS deeply worried about violent instability in Russia, especially with the precarious state of the US policy - The GOP in the hands of Trump could not help but be a clarion call for stability. Can you imagine Russia falling apart now, with Trump in titular control of the US and the GOP and the oligarchs circling? Where would the Russian nukes end up? It's a fckng nightmare.
It's easy to criticize but when the global buck stops on your desk, you have to think about all this shit. For realz. Not just today, but for a generation.
Something this abomination of an administration is not capable of - unless the plan is feudalism, in which case, they're right on track.
I hope we'll find out someday.
All I can say now - for me, there have been a lot of contradictive signals either way since the war began...
Perhaps I’m sane-washing a feckless agenda. Could be. But the Biden administration showed itself to be competent and cautious in other areas, so this reading of the data makes some
sense to me.
It could be both - neutralizing Russia for the next few decades, and preventing escalation.
Putin is threatening to use nukes again. We should end his threats once and for all. I've written a post about how to do that:
https://michielnijk.substack.com/p/should-we-provide-nuclear-weapons
Wonder how you feel about that...
Read the book “War” by Bob Woodward. The Kremlin was making overt threats about the use of tactical nuclear weapons and Russian nuclear doctrine alllows first use under certain circumstances. It’s still a potential threat. Maybe Biden was being over cautious but events can spiral out of control quickly.
I read Woodard’s take, but found it wanting. I fully comprehend that a nuclear threat is always a possibility, but it’s not probable, since although Putin is many things, suicidal; he is not!
Additionally, all of NATO became a threat after the Ukrainian invasion, because Putin has always had grand plans for most of Europe (revive the Russian Empire), and he never stops interfering in western elections, including our own since 2016; as well as trying to turn all of Europe into Hungary or Belarus. Therefore, the stakes have always been high to begin with; Biden just refused to read the memo.
Bottom line; do we allow Putin to get away with these clearly illegal, and destructive policies and tactics against our allies? I don’t think so!
My point, if you are afraid to play the game to win, then you’ve already lost the war before the first battle is ever fought! And when you play against guys like Putin; it’s a zero sum game! IMHO…:)
I think it’s worth keeping in mind that Woodward was reporting what he was told by the Biden administration. It’s their “take” on the risk, not his.
I understand your point, but I think it’s a BS answer; the go to answer for cowards. “Well, we have to consider the nuclear…..”.
What I mean is a legitimate justification for their intransigence, when they were claiming to the public at the time that they were indeed doing everything possible to help Ukraine prevail. And the real reason for holding back?
Was it because they initially thought Ukraine wouldn’t survive a week, and thought it a lost cause?
Although, even if that’s the case, once it became apparent Ukraine could win, then why hold back? Unless they thought it was in the US’s best interest to prolong the war to weaken Putin indefinitely. Yet, that strategy means they were betraying Ukraine all along; using them as pawns on a chess board.
Get my point? I’m not suggesting any of my hypotheticals could be, or are true; however, I am suggesting that the party line is a bunch of bull!…:)
Yes. Such was the fear. How did India and Pakistan keep figting under the nuclear threshold. Having nuclear weapons cannot become a dicators dream to conquer the world. But I agree, that it was that fear that Putin fully exploited.
A good justification, I may say.
Yet, again according to Shankar the current administration is a laughing stock, he repeatedly says that in his articles……
Well, Biden never, ever made a right decision in his lifetime. Just yesterday, I had watched the Manhunt on Al-Qaeda - Bidden was one of the very few to veto to per-sue stopping of Osama killing. Go figure….
But a great on 🇺🇦 and EU getting together!
Between Sullivan and Garland, Biden chose inaction over action, when action was desperately needed in both cases. Whether unfortunate or complicate, I'm not sure.
He escaped because of Blinken, otherwise it would have been an even bigger disaster.
Finally.
The Biden / Sullivan “As long as it takes” facade was a disaster from the start of the war till the trump “peace at any price” fiasco. Ukraine has paid in blood and lost land for the policy incompetence and cowardice of the United States. If European leadership can stop the United States from pushing Ukraine to surrender, and provide support that is in Europe’s power to provide, Ukraine can defeat Russia. And it should.
Just this. Just this. Perfect summation: The Biden / Sullivan “As long as it takes” facade was a disaster from the start of the war till the trump “peace at any price” fiasco
Shankar: I must tell you how much I appreciate all of your articles, but this one actually gives me a little bit of hope for a change!
Thank you. I am glad.
Thanks for this amazing good news, Shankar!
Merz, Macron and Starmer are forging a new “Triple Entente” in defense of Freedom!
America is now on the wrong side of history!
Trump joins us to Putin in joint fascist dictatorships!
Yep. Together.
Putin's pooing his pants, hopefully and if he's not, he should be . The Russian reaction, with UN protestations about the EU not looking for peace is laughable and is revealing - they are very worried about this as it will be a game changer if pursued strategically and at scale. I noticed a big ammo depot just went badaboom so let's hope this is now the start of a sustained campaign using taurus to target serious infrastructure. Time to badaboom the Kerch bridge as well, a nice symbolic target as well as hampering logistics. Slava Ukraine.
Yes. They are worried. Trump is the only card they have left. They are still playing that really well.
Overall excellent and informative analysis, as always. Thank you.
..."and the only reason Ukraine is still standing is because of its own ingenuity, not Western strategy." Absolutely. And absolute kudos exclusively to the Ukrainians.
It seems to me there's been an evolution, from fear of Putin's threats to use nuclear retaliation, and the risk of blame, which was very real at the time, and, yes, defensively, to me explains at least in part Biden's team's tempered response and inhibited strategy. No one wants to be blamed [for supposedly provoking Putin] for starting what at the time was the fear of greater escalation. As you say, looking to make it a draw. Timing. And the evolution to no longer fearing that threat, or bluff, we're seeing now. It's taken that evolution though, by all involved, and then the advent of this current administration's bizarreness, and leaving it behind to assume charge, to arrive here now. It takes a village.
Kudos to Merz and to Zelinsky, France and all the others and their teams stepping up to the moment getting to this next stage and now decisively moving forward.
Thx Collin.
Wonderful news!! I only wish it was the U.S. that had stepped up when the war was in its earliest stages. So much bloodshed could’ve been prevented…
They got themselves played very early on and it has escalated from there.
My mantra…never trust Putin….
Excellent news from Europe. It's about time and long overdue, as you point out. Bomber bases, especially, will now be vulnerable. Nowhere to hide. The Kerch bridge might also be back on the "menu" for Ukrainian targeters. Taurus was made for structures like this. Deep strike capabilities will further stretch the Russian air defenses...which are already fairly porous...to the breaking point. Putin's ability to sustain the Russian war effort will be put to the test when the critical factories manufacturing missiles and their components come under attack. You can be sure that Ukraine will take full advantage of the relaxed Rules of Engagement (RoE) regarding these weapons.
It will take some time Stephen. I am thinking at least few more months. Hoping that they have started the work already.
It is time to stop Putin once and for all and to show him the strength of the alliance. We'll done.
i've never had a writer be able to hold my interest in politics like you do. Thank you so much for your work! I will be joining your paid subscribers soon.
Thank you Doreen. I never thought I will write. But here I am.
By the way, I am amazed by how much quantity of well-researched writings you are able to produce!
Finally!!!
finally the west has a leaader
Not one. Starmer-Macron-Merz-Tusk
As usual, the us has blood on it’s hands. Innocent lives lost in our names. It’s nothing short of a goddam miracle that Ukraine still exists at all 🇺🇦💙
Tremendous, Thank you!