Tell that to Pete Hegseth, and/or whoever is planning to duct tape him to his chair and stash all his comm devices in an underground vault in Virginia.
Duct tape his mouth if you like (that would slow his alcohol intake - along with many other benefits), but best; just don’t include Hegseth in the conversation at all.
There is one beautiful added dimension to the current US and European oil strategy, and it's brilliant in its simplicity...
Slowly but steadily, more and more Russia's tankers are sitting idle, filled with oil, the result being threefold:
1. The first is a floating oil reserve that can, if the price of oil does start to rise, be unlocked to the oil market by allowing those tankers to anker at Indian refineries.
2. Putin's shadow tankers do no longer need to be stopped and boarded in the East Sea, after leaving Russian harbours - because they will leave only once.
3. If the price doesn't rise, Putin will run out of tankers, and hence, will be deprived of oil revenues.
The strategy, in short, is aimed at cutting off Putin's oil revenues - all his oil revenues - by idling his tankers while keeping the oil price stable by creating a floating oil reserve...
Sometimes it seems like we're being governed by imbeciles. Even a child would understand that confidentiality is fundamental in this context.
Very good that Trump is, in practice, helping the Ukrainians — in words he's hostile, and he does it for his electoral base, but in fact he's behaving well. Also good that India is being pushed a little to behave properly.
Interesting but let’s take an alternate view of all the moving pieces. The orange one wants to assert dominance and there is not overarching plan. He is mad at Daddy Vlad for not going for a ceasefire so he is “hitting” back in a way that hurts, but not too bad and uses India as a convenient excuse. KSA and gulf states? Coordinated for sure but what is their endgame? Maybe replace Russian oil but it is more to keep prices down and punish US shale production that has much higher cost! It happens to hurt both Russia and even longer term the US! Ukraine is simply taking advantage of the chaos to hurt Russian refined product and create problems with the economy.
In short, I am not buying a grand strategy on the oil side at this point, though individual interests seem to be converging opportunistically.
“So, here’s my final recommendation. It’s not diplomatic. It’s not nuanced. It’s strategic.
Silence.”
Hmm... Not sure how much that helps if the US is involved in any way that involves the creation of written documents. Why would anyone assume that the current US government is capable of preventing Russia from obtaining copies?
“Then came the second move—this time from the Gulf and the move I did not see it coming. Two days after the Trump administration made its announcement, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, along with its partners in the OPEC+ cartel, declared they would increase production by 547,000 barrels per day starting in September.”
When I read this on Friday, I immediately thought this is coordinated. One things clear, MbS is in lock step with Trump; I guess having his back after the Khashoggi murder and mutilation has its benefits!…:)
That said, I’m still trying to figure out Trump’s playbook. He moved the timeline from 50 days to 10; expiring on July 31st, when he said he would announce sanctions. Yet, we heard nothing yet!
And moving two nuclear submarines to within Russian territory is not the same as reinforcing sanctions. I’m not sure what this evens means? There’s little chance Trump would actually bomb Russia. He won’t even let the Ukrainian’s bomb most of Russia’s infrastructure.
Moreover, if Trump was at all serious, he’d sanction the Russian bank’s again. Yet, not even a mention. So what is Trump actually accomplishing? Is this an honest attempt to broker a deal, or is this just more posturing; allowing Russia to try to accomplish its failed invasion. After all, Russia now controls far less Ukrainian territory than it did at the outbreak of the war, and their death and casualty rates are enormous.
Shankar, what’s your best analysis on Trump’s position, and whether or not you believe this truly is a good faith effort to end the war on fair and equitable terms?
This is Bessent's portfolio. He is on Ukraines side. Hates musk and his group. But I have no profile on him yet. Sadly I can't pick a position now. Have to read the ball after it enters the play. Since I am closely tracking the weapons we will still be able to stay on top. Regarding the 50.days and 10 days. All that is just messaging. In my view even 50 days is way too less to complete the envelope.
What of the Witkoff visit? Trump always worries me. At any moment he can turn his back on good advice. Is Medvedev merely posturing?
Thank you as always this time for a clear picture of the often murky oil situation. I hope this is enough for Russia to feel a least some little shockwaves.
I was surprised and entertained to learn yesterday that Trump had resolved six wars just last week. Amazing what you can do when you put your mind to it.
A little less on Kellog - since even before the election he seamed ready to give away Ukrainian acreage for a “peace”.
I would require a lot of convincing that Rubio deserves a nod after the 2-3 months of the intense U.S. sculpting of the 23 April “US ultimate peace proposal” to end the war, that Rubio participated in, which included the US de jure recognition of Russian possession of Crimea, and virtually all the other terms thereof.
Tell that to Pete Hegseth, and/or whoever is planning to duct tape him to his chair and stash all his comm devices in an underground vault in Virginia.
Haha. I wish. I hope it reaches the senators. I think I will mail McConnell and wicker. They can do this
Best of luck!!! And, thanks for fighting the good fight.
That was my very first thought. Keep Hegseth away from his devices. Keep him off Signal. Duct tape him to a chair and duct tape his mouth.
Great minds do think alike!
Duct tape his mouth if you like (that would slow his alcohol intake - along with many other benefits), but best; just don’t include Hegseth in the conversation at all.
Duct tape his mouth most of all!
Brilliant deductions Shankar, on India, Ukraine, and silence.
There is one beautiful added dimension to the current US and European oil strategy, and it's brilliant in its simplicity...
Slowly but steadily, more and more Russia's tankers are sitting idle, filled with oil, the result being threefold:
1. The first is a floating oil reserve that can, if the price of oil does start to rise, be unlocked to the oil market by allowing those tankers to anker at Indian refineries.
2. Putin's shadow tankers do no longer need to be stopped and boarded in the East Sea, after leaving Russian harbours - because they will leave only once.
3. If the price doesn't rise, Putin will run out of tankers, and hence, will be deprived of oil revenues.
The strategy, in short, is aimed at cutting off Putin's oil revenues - all his oil revenues - by idling his tankers while keeping the oil price stable by creating a floating oil reserve...
Sometimes it seems like we're being governed by imbeciles. Even a child would understand that confidentiality is fundamental in this context.
Very good that Trump is, in practice, helping the Ukrainians — in words he's hostile, and he does it for his electoral base, but in fact he's behaving well. Also good that India is being pushed a little to behave properly.
Shhhh.... good advice Shankar. Don't tell the enemy what you are bringing, how many you have and where it is going.
Interesting but let’s take an alternate view of all the moving pieces. The orange one wants to assert dominance and there is not overarching plan. He is mad at Daddy Vlad for not going for a ceasefire so he is “hitting” back in a way that hurts, but not too bad and uses India as a convenient excuse. KSA and gulf states? Coordinated for sure but what is their endgame? Maybe replace Russian oil but it is more to keep prices down and punish US shale production that has much higher cost! It happens to hurt both Russia and even longer term the US! Ukraine is simply taking advantage of the chaos to hurt Russian refined product and create problems with the economy.
In short, I am not buying a grand strategy on the oil side at this point, though individual interests seem to be converging opportunistically.
I understand. This is an extremely long game and difficult play.. Bessent is capable. But not sure if he will be allowed to.
“So, here’s my final recommendation. It’s not diplomatic. It’s not nuanced. It’s strategic.
Silence.”
Hmm... Not sure how much that helps if the US is involved in any way that involves the creation of written documents. Why would anyone assume that the current US government is capable of preventing Russia from obtaining copies?
Because so far, the current US government didn’t do anything wrong or uncalculated. It helped coordinate the situation and got EU involved.
There's no Pravda in Izvestia, and no Izvestia in Pravda. True in 1979 when I learned it at UF, in W European Poly Sci, true today.
“Then came the second move—this time from the Gulf and the move I did not see it coming. Two days after the Trump administration made its announcement, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, along with its partners in the OPEC+ cartel, declared they would increase production by 547,000 barrels per day starting in September.”
When I read this on Friday, I immediately thought this is coordinated. One things clear, MbS is in lock step with Trump; I guess having his back after the Khashoggi murder and mutilation has its benefits!…:)
That said, I’m still trying to figure out Trump’s playbook. He moved the timeline from 50 days to 10; expiring on July 31st, when he said he would announce sanctions. Yet, we heard nothing yet!
And moving two nuclear submarines to within Russian territory is not the same as reinforcing sanctions. I’m not sure what this evens means? There’s little chance Trump would actually bomb Russia. He won’t even let the Ukrainian’s bomb most of Russia’s infrastructure.
Moreover, if Trump was at all serious, he’d sanction the Russian bank’s again. Yet, not even a mention. So what is Trump actually accomplishing? Is this an honest attempt to broker a deal, or is this just more posturing; allowing Russia to try to accomplish its failed invasion. After all, Russia now controls far less Ukrainian territory than it did at the outbreak of the war, and their death and casualty rates are enormous.
Shankar, what’s your best analysis on Trump’s position, and whether or not you believe this truly is a good faith effort to end the war on fair and equitable terms?
Too many variables in play.
This is Bessent's portfolio. He is on Ukraines side. Hates musk and his group. But I have no profile on him yet. Sadly I can't pick a position now. Have to read the ball after it enters the play. Since I am closely tracking the weapons we will still be able to stay on top. Regarding the 50.days and 10 days. All that is just messaging. In my view even 50 days is way too less to complete the envelope.
Needs 90 days at full speed.
What of the Witkoff visit? Trump always worries me. At any moment he can turn his back on good advice. Is Medvedev merely posturing?
Thank you as always this time for a clear picture of the often murky oil situation. I hope this is enough for Russia to feel a least some little shockwaves.
I was surprised and entertained to learn yesterday that Trump had resolved six wars just last week. Amazing what you can do when you put your mind to it.
Yes! Shankar!
I’ve been watching and waiting!
I’ve been wondering!
WHEN WILL WE FINALLY STOP TELLING PUTIN WHAT WE ARE GOING TO DO????
Thanks! Finally!
like the silence as regards the german long distance arms which has lit up the russian skyline recently
Legitimate good strategy from this regime is as welcome news as it is hard to believe. Imagine, capable ppl in this govt doing the right thing
Rubio. Bessent. Kellog. Caine. Grynkewich.
McCaul. McConnell. Wicker.
With you on McCaul, Wicker and Caine.
A little less on Kellog - since even before the election he seamed ready to give away Ukrainian acreage for a “peace”.
I would require a lot of convincing that Rubio deserves a nod after the 2-3 months of the intense U.S. sculpting of the 23 April “US ultimate peace proposal” to end the war, that Rubio participated in, which included the US de jure recognition of Russian possession of Crimea, and virtually all the other terms thereof.
I didn’t know, thanks
Like the cooperation between KSA and the US!
And yes, nothing with Russia will happen overnight. It’s a long war, it will be a slow victory. But believe in victory!
Thanks Shankar. Informative as ever.