Just in: NATO countries will quickly deliver American weapons from their own stocks to Ukraine. And then they will go to the US to buy them to replenish their depleted arsenals, — Spiegel
❗️Germany, Finland, Denmark, Sweden, Norway, Britain, the Netherlands and Canada will join the first wave of deliveries.
“Trump had seized control of the MAGA narrative. Any attack would now bounce off…..More importantly, he positioned himself to pivot in any direction from here—hawk or dove, victor or peacemaker—while still being able to claim strategic dominance if Putin loses.”
Shankar, how are you concluding that Trump has done a complete 180 degree turn and is now in Ukraine’s court? My take away from yesterday’s announcement was one of two things:
Trump is hedging his bet like you have so eloquently stated, or Trump’s playing a long-game to help Putin navigate this disaster in the making.
After all, Trump just gave Putin a 50 day reprieve to continue to wreak havoc on Ukraine with impunity. And this is the summer time when armies engage and fight, so……..
Bottom line, the news is great, but I’m still hearing conflicting reports and as for Russia’s ability to wage war? Russia is still fourth in the world when it comes to Purchasing Power Parity (PPP), so they aren’t running out of money anytime soon, and as far as munitions; you’ve said it yourself, N. Korea is supplying up to 40%.
Therefore, I’m still left conflicted and confused…:)
Fair enough, I’m just trying to understand what Trump is trying to accomplish.
It appears he wants to have it both ways, and I was just asking why you think it’s a 180 degree turn from initial position of having 100% support for Russia.
He has positioned himself to claim victory if Ukraine wins and Putin loses. He still holds the option to get a ceasefire and claim victory. The US intel assessment on Russia has changed. They think Putin is in trouble. Trump is covering himself for it. Good for us
Unfortunately the longer Zelenskyy is forced to deal with Trump/USA the further away the expulsion of the filthy Russians from Ukrainian soil can be realized. In the absence of the ‘magic’ Patriot system, Ukraine’s allies must kick in heavier offensive weapons with which Ukraine can reach farther out to touch Putin. The citizens of Moscow must be made to feel the fear and pain of the war as those in Kyiv do on a nightly basis.
I agree with your succinct analysis, but Ukraine has already been targeting Russian refineries as well as anything that supports its planned new massive attack in the Sumy region. Railroads, bridges, and drone manufacturing have all been targeted and hit.
The Ukrainians are simply thinking and planning ahead.
You would think by now Ukraine would have learned not to take "requests" from Washington as serious...and I think they have. That's why they don't give the "talking heads" in D.C. a "heads-up"(forgive me) about upcoming operations. As for all the inflow of US weapons aid...which someone will have to pay for...well, let's just say "we'll see".
I wish. I really do. They have no choice but to keep taking in these requests. But they don't share details about their ops anymore like they used to in 2022.
Hmmm, I disagree with the level of thinking on Pedo Don's part you're implying here.
The Pro-Putin faction (Colby) made a mistake that made Pedo Don look bad. The Pro-Ukraine faction subsequently had his ear. That's all there is to it.
Pedo Don doesn't do strategy, or any kind of deeper thinking. The only thing that occupies him is how he looks - like a victor, or a loser.
Putin will bribe him by smearing honey all over his face. Pedo Don will switch back to the Pro-Putin side once he has forgotten about their mistakes.
Also, those fifty days... that is a sure sign he is still backing Putin. My guess is - if the Ukrainians gain the upper hand, also in defence, he'll kneecap them again before those fifty days are out...
He has some really solid general advising him. That move he made on Iran was breathtakingly beautiful. It was calibrated escalation. It had covered every possible response angle. Pentagon is known to mess things up and they are experts at it. Afgan is one great example. I don't know who this is.
But I desperately want to find out. Who ever thss is ..that person also understands politics.
The attack might have been, as you say,”breathtakingly beautiful,” but it too was only for show and did not bring Iran to the table or in any way convince you completely cease their plans for nuclear power.
I agree. Iran was well played and executed, although here too, Pedo Don's ignorance by insisting Iran's nuclear program 'is totally destroyed' is exemplary and difficult to watch.
It's not about whether the action actually took out Iran's capacity. It's about the signal - thou shallt not have a nuclear weapon.
I'd love to know who whispered in Pedo Don's ear. And how easily he or she can be sidetracked by other factions in the WH...
I don't know. The reason I want to know who that person is ---once you find the general, their doctrines would have been built over the years. You can read and see how they move. I need to find out soon.
Yes, there will be knives hovering around. But knowing Trump, if some one keeps giving him wins, he will keep going back to them.
It is ok. Let us be utterly selfish here. Air-defense was the one gap Putin was trying to exploit against Ukraine. Ukraine first and Europe next was his plan. Europe was also in a messed up state with air-defense.
US, which is nearly the same size as Europe, has 60 patriot batteries. Europe has less than 20. Putins plan was to use his missiles and hurt Europe when the time comes. Even if this move adds ten batteries to the theatre that is capablity upgrade that will serve Europe and Ukraine well into the future.
Two years, Germany will bring out the Iris-T long range version. So far the medium range system has scored some massive wins against Russian missile barrages. So, on a system level they are learning. They already have the prototype ready. The problem is the time gap. From here to the day German long range air-defense system rolls off. Until that time Patriots are the only way out. I hate this position, but there is nothing that can be done about it. Something is wrong with Samp-T. No body is opening their mouth and I have no idea why.
I thought the absence of sanctions might mean a done deal if Putin’s finances eased. I hope the blockades of the shadow fleet will lock down that access of oil. The fifty days before tariffs seemed like an ominous gift of time—just enough for Putin’s summer offensive…
If the Patriot missiles arrive in a timely fashion that will make me much happier.
The U.S. has a loooong way to go to try to salvage anything resembling credibility for the way it (“we”) have grossly misapplied our ability to resolve this war. I will hold Biden in deep contempt forever for shutting down the “Sambush” tactics, holding back allowing F-16s, slow dripping ammunition assets and refusing to allow deeper strikes behind the Russian border. trump gets far less than zero credit for his perpetual Putin bias, even now, with his hollow optic of deciding to act tough on Putin. FIFTY DAYS (!?) and he MIGHT raise tariffs? Why not TODAY (!?). What if Putin says, okay, let’s negotiate…, offers Ukraine another opportunity to surrender, which of course they refuse, and Putin then tells trump; “Don, I tried, but those intransigent Ukrainians just aren’t interested in our peace offer and won’t negotiate”? Do you think Krasnov will apply tariff pressure? I think he’ll say; “damn-it, I’m disappointed, I’m gonna think about it for two weeks…”.
Yes, I’m glad to see Ukraine getting more Patriots. I’m glad that more writers are finally coming around to thinking Ukraine could actually win this war. But forcing them to the table to get peace is BS. If you want peace in Ukraine, the best way to get it is to have the Russian economy collapse, or the Putin regime collapse, or the Russian army to all turn around and run - because they can’t get food, fuel or ammunition to the front lines. Preferably all three. And it could have happened before now, except for the cowardly inaction of Ukraine’s allies, most of all the good ol’ U.S. of A.
War crimes are being committed. We looked the other way in both Ukraine and Gaza. Did the industrial military sector suffer or profit?? This scenario replays itself generation after generation and we clutch our pearls and watch reality TV for distraction. We elect “leadership” without a background check first. Now we cry? This is Vietnam, Iraq, Syria, Yemen, and others all over again. In our name by people we are told to blindly trust.
Shankar, I wish I could come to the same conclusion but I cannot. All that I see is trump giving Putin enough time to fire another 25,000 missiles and drones at Ukraine civilians and his idea of tarrifs as sanctions is unenforceable. Really hope I am wrong.
Thanks for that response. Budanov is doing a fantastic job for Ukraine. Trump seems to live in his own fantasy world fighting a different war of grift during which Ukraine and it's real friends just get on with a very focussed intelligent campaign.
Having been born into a country fighting for survival in 1942, I know how that brings out the very best in those people keeping a cool head. Unfortunately there are also life changing tragedies along the way which are not always a total disaster. For example, my wife would not have been born if her mother's first husband had not lost his life in the Battle of Britain. All I am saying is that life goes on after war and we humans do seem to recover without forgetting the past and those who sacrificed their lives.
Can anyone give me the reason why the USA is in full control of what the Ukraines are allowed or not allowed to do? Just becise the USA is SELLING them weapons why on earth do they get to tell Ukraine when and where they can be used if they now BELONG to Ukraine? Why does Germany or ANY OTHER COUNTRY ON THE PLANET get to tell the Ukrainian people how they are allowed to fight a war of survival while they bind one arm behind their backs and put blindfolds on them?
Well, they could likely get the same information from Canada, France, Germany or the UK. Most of the other NATO countries have military targeting satellites. However the only countries that currently have ASAT are the US, Russia, China, and India, so I suppose if any of those other countries offered Ukraine use of THEIR military satellites Trump, Putin, Xi or Modi could blow them out of the sky
As per Justin Wolfers re 100% tariff threat - How to sound tough but do nothing - Impose tariffs on a country where we already impose sanctions - 100% tariff on almost nothing will do almost nothing!
The Biden and Scholz administrations wouldn't let Ukraine strike Russian aircraft? That's nuts. And this was because they didn't really want Ukraine to win the war? What do you think was their objective then - to bleed Russia but not so badly that Putin would be overthrown?
Just in: NATO countries will quickly deliver American weapons from their own stocks to Ukraine. And then they will go to the US to buy them to replenish their depleted arsenals, — Spiegel
❗️Germany, Finland, Denmark, Sweden, Norway, Britain, the Netherlands and Canada will join the first wave of deliveries.
“Trump had seized control of the MAGA narrative. Any attack would now bounce off…..More importantly, he positioned himself to pivot in any direction from here—hawk or dove, victor or peacemaker—while still being able to claim strategic dominance if Putin loses.”
Shankar, how are you concluding that Trump has done a complete 180 degree turn and is now in Ukraine’s court? My take away from yesterday’s announcement was one of two things:
Trump is hedging his bet like you have so eloquently stated, or Trump’s playing a long-game to help Putin navigate this disaster in the making.
After all, Trump just gave Putin a 50 day reprieve to continue to wreak havoc on Ukraine with impunity. And this is the summer time when armies engage and fight, so……..
Bottom line, the news is great, but I’m still hearing conflicting reports and as for Russia’s ability to wage war? Russia is still fourth in the world when it comes to Purchasing Power Parity (PPP), so they aren’t running out of money anytime soon, and as far as munitions; you’ve said it yourself, N. Korea is supplying up to 40%.
Therefore, I’m still left conflicted and confused…:)
Let us forget everyone and look at this from Ukr's perspective.
Air-defense is their weakest link. Even if they get nothing more than 17 launchers, it will still be a massive boost.
Europe now has the clearance to pay and take delivery of systems.
What Europe has to do now: not waste time and buy as much as possible. They need to work the clock now.
Fair enough, I’m just trying to understand what Trump is trying to accomplish.
It appears he wants to have it both ways, and I was just asking why you think it’s a 180 degree turn from initial position of having 100% support for Russia.
He has positioned himself to claim victory if Ukraine wins and Putin loses. He still holds the option to get a ceasefire and claim victory. The US intel assessment on Russia has changed. They think Putin is in trouble. Trump is covering himself for it. Good for us
This is quite the tongue bath for Trump. Who knew the guy was hiding razor sharp anything behind the dementia.
Unfortunately the longer Zelenskyy is forced to deal with Trump/USA the further away the expulsion of the filthy Russians from Ukrainian soil can be realized. In the absence of the ‘magic’ Patriot system, Ukraine’s allies must kick in heavier offensive weapons with which Ukraine can reach farther out to touch Putin. The citizens of Moscow must be made to feel the fear and pain of the war as those in Kyiv do on a nightly basis.
Yes. Can't wait for the German long range system introduced into the field by the end of this month.
I agree with your succinct analysis, but Ukraine has already been targeting Russian refineries as well as anything that supports its planned new massive attack in the Sumy region. Railroads, bridges, and drone manufacturing have all been targeted and hit.
The Ukrainians are simply thinking and planning ahead.
You would think by now Ukraine would have learned not to take "requests" from Washington as serious...and I think they have. That's why they don't give the "talking heads" in D.C. a "heads-up"(forgive me) about upcoming operations. As for all the inflow of US weapons aid...which someone will have to pay for...well, let's just say "we'll see".
I wish. I really do. They have no choice but to keep taking in these requests. But they don't share details about their ops anymore like they used to in 2022.
Hmmm, I disagree with the level of thinking on Pedo Don's part you're implying here.
The Pro-Putin faction (Colby) made a mistake that made Pedo Don look bad. The Pro-Ukraine faction subsequently had his ear. That's all there is to it.
Pedo Don doesn't do strategy, or any kind of deeper thinking. The only thing that occupies him is how he looks - like a victor, or a loser.
Putin will bribe him by smearing honey all over his face. Pedo Don will switch back to the Pro-Putin side once he has forgotten about their mistakes.
Also, those fifty days... that is a sure sign he is still backing Putin. My guess is - if the Ukrainians gain the upper hand, also in defence, he'll kneecap them again before those fifty days are out...
He has some really solid general advising him. That move he made on Iran was breathtakingly beautiful. It was calibrated escalation. It had covered every possible response angle. Pentagon is known to mess things up and they are experts at it. Afgan is one great example. I don't know who this is.
But I desperately want to find out. Who ever thss is ..that person also understands politics.
The attack might have been, as you say,”breathtakingly beautiful,” but it too was only for show and did not bring Iran to the table or in any way convince you completely cease their plans for nuclear power.
It could have easily gone wrong. That was the part I was talking about.
I agree. Iran was well played and executed, although here too, Pedo Don's ignorance by insisting Iran's nuclear program 'is totally destroyed' is exemplary and difficult to watch.
It's not about whether the action actually took out Iran's capacity. It's about the signal - thou shallt not have a nuclear weapon.
I'd love to know who whispered in Pedo Don's ear. And how easily he or she can be sidetracked by other factions in the WH...
I don't know. The reason I want to know who that person is ---once you find the general, their doctrines would have been built over the years. You can read and see how they move. I need to find out soon.
Yes, there will be knives hovering around. But knowing Trump, if some one keeps giving him wins, he will keep going back to them.
50 days to September then 2 weeks, and two weeks more. biding time for .putin
It is ok. Let us be utterly selfish here. Air-defense was the one gap Putin was trying to exploit against Ukraine. Ukraine first and Europe next was his plan. Europe was also in a messed up state with air-defense.
US, which is nearly the same size as Europe, has 60 patriot batteries. Europe has less than 20. Putins plan was to use his missiles and hurt Europe when the time comes. Even if this move adds ten batteries to the theatre that is capablity upgrade that will serve Europe and Ukraine well into the future.
True. Maybe we should count our blessings, and hope Pedo Don doesn't pull the plug somewhere.
I put my money on the German initiative, also on the new weapon system they have developed to down Shaheds, the Skynex.
Five dozen of those beautiful machines, and Ukraine can make do with the Patriot systems they already have to shoot down the rest...
Two years, Germany will bring out the Iris-T long range version. So far the medium range system has scored some massive wins against Russian missile barrages. So, on a system level they are learning. They already have the prototype ready. The problem is the time gap. From here to the day German long range air-defense system rolls off. Until that time Patriots are the only way out. I hate this position, but there is nothing that can be done about it. Something is wrong with Samp-T. No body is opening their mouth and I have no idea why.
Was that you who told me that it could be General Caine who is behind Trump's moves???
No that wasn’t me.
It is him. Behind this whole thing. Working on it. Will be out tmrw.
Amazing, I came back to see who might have said this. I will remember his name now.https://www.opb.org/article/2025/04/11/dan-caine-confirmed-as-joint-chiefs-chairman/ Looking forward to tomorrows essay, Shankar. Thank you as always
I thought the absence of sanctions might mean a done deal if Putin’s finances eased. I hope the blockades of the shadow fleet will lock down that access of oil. The fifty days before tariffs seemed like an ominous gift of time—just enough for Putin’s summer offensive…
If the Patriot missiles arrive in a timely fashion that will make me much happier.
Yes. Hearing reports that EU is pushing again to lower the price cap. Lets see.
Sanctions will pile on Putin's financial troubles. Absence does not mean things will get easier for him. He has already started to cut expenses.
Thanks for your clarity
The U.S. has a loooong way to go to try to salvage anything resembling credibility for the way it (“we”) have grossly misapplied our ability to resolve this war. I will hold Biden in deep contempt forever for shutting down the “Sambush” tactics, holding back allowing F-16s, slow dripping ammunition assets and refusing to allow deeper strikes behind the Russian border. trump gets far less than zero credit for his perpetual Putin bias, even now, with his hollow optic of deciding to act tough on Putin. FIFTY DAYS (!?) and he MIGHT raise tariffs? Why not TODAY (!?). What if Putin says, okay, let’s negotiate…, offers Ukraine another opportunity to surrender, which of course they refuse, and Putin then tells trump; “Don, I tried, but those intransigent Ukrainians just aren’t interested in our peace offer and won’t negotiate”? Do you think Krasnov will apply tariff pressure? I think he’ll say; “damn-it, I’m disappointed, I’m gonna think about it for two weeks…”.
Yes, I’m glad to see Ukraine getting more Patriots. I’m glad that more writers are finally coming around to thinking Ukraine could actually win this war. But forcing them to the table to get peace is BS. If you want peace in Ukraine, the best way to get it is to have the Russian economy collapse, or the Putin regime collapse, or the Russian army to all turn around and run - because they can’t get food, fuel or ammunition to the front lines. Preferably all three. And it could have happened before now, except for the cowardly inaction of Ukraine’s allies, most of all the good ol’ U.S. of A.
War crimes are being committed. We looked the other way in both Ukraine and Gaza. Did the industrial military sector suffer or profit?? This scenario replays itself generation after generation and we clutch our pearls and watch reality TV for distraction. We elect “leadership” without a background check first. Now we cry? This is Vietnam, Iraq, Syria, Yemen, and others all over again. In our name by people we are told to blindly trust.
Shankar, I wish I could come to the same conclusion but I cannot. All that I see is trump giving Putin enough time to fire another 25,000 missiles and drones at Ukraine civilians and his idea of tarrifs as sanctions is unenforceable. Really hope I am wrong.
It is ok. We are looking at the history and trying to project into the future. With some one like Trump that puts all of us in a conflicted state.
So, look at it only from Budanov's eyes. Will he see this as good news for Ukraine?...yes. THat will do.
One win scored. Lets move to the next one.
Thanks for that response. Budanov is doing a fantastic job for Ukraine. Trump seems to live in his own fantasy world fighting a different war of grift during which Ukraine and it's real friends just get on with a very focussed intelligent campaign.
Having been born into a country fighting for survival in 1942, I know how that brings out the very best in those people keeping a cool head. Unfortunately there are also life changing tragedies along the way which are not always a total disaster. For example, my wife would not have been born if her mother's first husband had not lost his life in the Battle of Britain. All I am saying is that life goes on after war and we humans do seem to recover without forgetting the past and those who sacrificed their lives.
Can anyone give me the reason why the USA is in full control of what the Ukraines are allowed or not allowed to do? Just becise the USA is SELLING them weapons why on earth do they get to tell Ukraine when and where they can be used if they now BELONG to Ukraine? Why does Germany or ANY OTHER COUNTRY ON THE PLANET get to tell the Ukrainian people how they are allowed to fight a war of survival while they bind one arm behind their backs and put blindfolds on them?
Targeting data. Without US data you can't reliaby hit enemy targets.
Well, they could likely get the same information from Canada, France, Germany or the UK. Most of the other NATO countries have military targeting satellites. However the only countries that currently have ASAT are the US, Russia, China, and India, so I suppose if any of those other countries offered Ukraine use of THEIR military satellites Trump, Putin, Xi or Modi could blow them out of the sky
Sadly. No. No one has what the us can offer.
As per Justin Wolfers re 100% tariff threat - How to sound tough but do nothing - Impose tariffs on a country where we already impose sanctions - 100% tariff on almost nothing will do almost nothing!
The Biden and Scholz administrations wouldn't let Ukraine strike Russian aircraft? That's nuts. And this was because they didn't really want Ukraine to win the war? What do you think was their objective then - to bleed Russia but not so badly that Putin would be overthrown?
They were scared Putin will escalate.
this article just shows how ukranian hands are shackled
Even today. Refiners are off limits for Ukraine.
Thank you Shankar. I was looking forward to your thoughts on yesterdays maneuver by trump.
Thx Sara. Glad to be of help.