Hippo Don wants a win. At any cost. The desperation on his part is becoming palpable. Europe can use this desperation too.
Europe should do everything in their power to delay, delay, delay. First off, because Europe needs time as much as Russia - to re-orient, and get its support act together. Secondly, most importantly, to deny Hippo Don the win he so craves.
I wonder how long it will take Hippo Don to realize there can be no deal of any sort without Europe sitting at the table...
Well, you still treat Trump like an idiot in power, so there is a chance that he might grasp what really matters and do something good eventually. However he is more just than idiot in power. He is kremlin's the most useful idiot in power.
Do not keep your hopes up. Whatever comes out of the White House, it will be on russian terrorist state's terms. One way or another it is putin's White House. I would even go so far and say that all these negotiations it is just a spectacle. While Ukraine seems to be truely engaged, for the other two, it is just a play. It is deception.
I just don’t see him standing up to Moscow. All we’ve heard from his emissaries is that Putin is a great guy. If Russia won’t negotiate, I don’t know what Trump will do He is good at marketing things as wins when they clearly are not. Does he have to persuade Europe? Can he persuade Ukraine? The mind boggles. But Putin has put so much into this war…and he plays Trump like a fiddle.
I think that a pretty reasonable theory of Trumpism is that Trump aspires to become a powerful mafia state boss like Putin (whom he obviously admires) and that there are intelligently evil people around him (not that it takes much to look intelligent in comparison to Trump) who are quite intentional and strategic about wanting to turn the US into a fascist state with themselves part of the ruling cabal, and to transform the world as a whole in the direction of fascist mafia states being the accepted norm rather than the exception.
If this assessment of Trumpism is correct, that implies not only that the Trumpist government will want to strengthen Russia and end the sanctions regime; it also implies that the Trumpist government can be expected to be willing to pay almost any diplomatic price for achieving that objective, as long as things can somehow be spun within MAGAland as Trump having achieved a "great deal".
Even if in European capitals my "theory of Trumpism" may not be widely known or accepted (yet?), I'm sure that people are seeing and understanding enough to understand at least intuitively that going in any way along with what the US is now pushing for would be very much against democratic values and against European interests.
I think you underestimate the awareness of Europeans. They are generally well educated, are broadly aware of history and have a shared experience of being on the threshold of disaster. Generational trauma is deeply embedded. Europeans in general and Ukrainians in particular have seen this coming.
Probably I should have qualified my comment to reference Western European capitals in particular. It certainly appears that e.g. Finland, Poland and the Baltic countries —as well as of course Ukraine— are much more clear-eyed than the countries that I've been thinking of.
That said, there have been some positive indications of Western European political leaders seemingly realizing what is going on and what needs to be done.
Still, Western Europe has for so many decades outsourced so much of its strategic thinking to the US that the capacity of our governments for strategic thinking and for taking corresponding actions has atrophied. Starting to think strategically independently of the US is scary! It's so much easier to simply make some good speeches and hope that things are somehow not so bad and can be waited out.
Trump lies always. He will always move in Raspy Putin’s direction, even as Russia bombs civilians. It’s a clever ploy by Zelenskyy to show Russia and the US as weak, even as he praises Trump. For those in Europe, the events with Hegseth, Vance, and Trump shows buying weapons from the US is a bad move.
The writing was on the wall, but still gut-wrenching to see it come to reality. This from Olga Lautman, Unmasking Russia ":
"Just one day before Trump’s phone call with Putin, two suspicious things happened. First, reporting emerged that Trump is considering recognizing Crimea as Russian territory—a move that would be illegal under international law and serve as a direct endorsement of Russia’s 2014 illegal annexation. Second, Putin signed a decree allowing a U.S. hedge fund to invest in Russian companies, marking a major shift in his long-standing economic restrictions against “unfriendly” nations—a sign that the Kremlin sees an opportunity to revive business ties with the U.S. under Trump’s leadership.
This isn’t a coincidence. While Trump pretends to be discussing a “peace plan,” what’s actually happening is a very public reestablishment of U.S.-Russia economic ties—all at Ukraine’s expense. This is not about diplomacy or ending the war; it’s about lifting sanctions, reviving business deals, and allowing Russian oligarchs and state-backed enterprises to regain access to American capital.
Trump is not brokering peace—he’s brokering Moscow’s return to the global economy while selling out Ukraine."
"Looks like President Trump has made the pivot — in favor of Putin."
Completely unsurprising. I'm only surprised it took two months in the White House for even this small amount of capitulation.
Hippo Don wants a win. At any cost. The desperation on his part is becoming palpable. Europe can use this desperation too.
Europe should do everything in their power to delay, delay, delay. First off, because Europe needs time as much as Russia - to re-orient, and get its support act together. Secondly, most importantly, to deny Hippo Don the win he so craves.
I wonder how long it will take Hippo Don to realize there can be no deal of any sort without Europe sitting at the table...
Well, you still treat Trump like an idiot in power, so there is a chance that he might grasp what really matters and do something good eventually. However he is more just than idiot in power. He is kremlin's the most useful idiot in power.
Do not keep your hopes up. Whatever comes out of the White House, it will be on russian terrorist state's terms. One way or another it is putin's White House. I would even go so far and say that all these negotiations it is just a spectacle. While Ukraine seems to be truely engaged, for the other two, it is just a play. It is deception.
You got that one right. And the useful idiot in power has made the pivot in the worst direction possible.
https://substack.com/@phillipspobrien/note/c-103452333?r=pai4o
I just don’t see him standing up to Moscow. All we’ve heard from his emissaries is that Putin is a great guy. If Russia won’t negotiate, I don’t know what Trump will do He is good at marketing things as wins when they clearly are not. Does he have to persuade Europe? Can he persuade Ukraine? The mind boggles. But Putin has put so much into this war…and he plays Trump like a fiddle.
I think that a pretty reasonable theory of Trumpism is that Trump aspires to become a powerful mafia state boss like Putin (whom he obviously admires) and that there are intelligently evil people around him (not that it takes much to look intelligent in comparison to Trump) who are quite intentional and strategic about wanting to turn the US into a fascist state with themselves part of the ruling cabal, and to transform the world as a whole in the direction of fascist mafia states being the accepted norm rather than the exception.
If this assessment of Trumpism is correct, that implies not only that the Trumpist government will want to strengthen Russia and end the sanctions regime; it also implies that the Trumpist government can be expected to be willing to pay almost any diplomatic price for achieving that objective, as long as things can somehow be spun within MAGAland as Trump having achieved a "great deal".
Even if in European capitals my "theory of Trumpism" may not be widely known or accepted (yet?), I'm sure that people are seeing and understanding enough to understand at least intuitively that going in any way along with what the US is now pushing for would be very much against democratic values and against European interests.
I think you underestimate the awareness of Europeans. They are generally well educated, are broadly aware of history and have a shared experience of being on the threshold of disaster. Generational trauma is deeply embedded. Europeans in general and Ukrainians in particular have seen this coming.
Probably I should have qualified my comment to reference Western European capitals in particular. It certainly appears that e.g. Finland, Poland and the Baltic countries —as well as of course Ukraine— are much more clear-eyed than the countries that I've been thinking of.
That said, there have been some positive indications of Western European political leaders seemingly realizing what is going on and what needs to be done.
Still, Western Europe has for so many decades outsourced so much of its strategic thinking to the US that the capacity of our governments for strategic thinking and for taking corresponding actions has atrophied. Starting to think strategically independently of the US is scary! It's so much easier to simply make some good speeches and hope that things are somehow not so bad and can be waited out.
If the Europeans had any doubts, SignalGate should have ended them. 🙄
Trump lies always. He will always move in Raspy Putin’s direction, even as Russia bombs civilians. It’s a clever ploy by Zelenskyy to show Russia and the US as weak, even as he praises Trump. For those in Europe, the events with Hegseth, Vance, and Trump shows buying weapons from the US is a bad move.
The writing was on the wall, but still gut-wrenching to see it come to reality. This from Olga Lautman, Unmasking Russia ":
"Just one day before Trump’s phone call with Putin, two suspicious things happened. First, reporting emerged that Trump is considering recognizing Crimea as Russian territory—a move that would be illegal under international law and serve as a direct endorsement of Russia’s 2014 illegal annexation. Second, Putin signed a decree allowing a U.S. hedge fund to invest in Russian companies, marking a major shift in his long-standing economic restrictions against “unfriendly” nations—a sign that the Kremlin sees an opportunity to revive business ties with the U.S. under Trump’s leadership.
This isn’t a coincidence. While Trump pretends to be discussing a “peace plan,” what’s actually happening is a very public reestablishment of U.S.-Russia economic ties—all at Ukraine’s expense. This is not about diplomacy or ending the war; it’s about lifting sanctions, reviving business deals, and allowing Russian oligarchs and state-backed enterprises to regain access to American capital.
Trump is not brokering peace—he’s brokering Moscow’s return to the global economy while selling out Ukraine."
todays european security summit should tell us more, provided that they agree amoungst themselves
I suspect there will be more agreement than usual. The threat is obvious and extremely dangerous.
Phillips Obriens' post today says trump knifed Ukraine in the back.
Because legacy reporting won't tell the story correctly, it is as you say. " When Kyiv pushed back, it was framed as obstinance. When the Kremlin rejects the deal outright, it’s treated as a negotiation detail." https://open.substack.com/pub/phillipspobrien/p/ukraine-was-just-knifed-in-the-back?r=fa5ey&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=email I am reading articles in order, I see you are addressing this in The Emperor Kneels. Thank you
No! Most of your analysis is based on the false premise that Trump is acting in good faith!
No way, Shankar!
Trump’s Putin’s Puppet! He can’t it anymore, no matter how hard he tries!