Trump Eyes Medicaid

There is no way around it now.

Donald Trump and House Speaker Mike Johnson have set their sights on delivering Trump’s signature promises—on immigration, energy, and taxes—through what they’re calling “one big beautiful package.” By bundling these priorities into a single, sweeping proposal and pushing it through the reconciliation process, they aim to sidestep hurdles and force it through. But this strategy is layered with complexity, and there’s plenty to unravel.

So, buckle up.

This isn’t the GOP’s first attempt to tinker with Medicaid. Back in 2017, they tried to repeal and replace the Affordable Care Act, a move that the Department of Health and Human Services warned would cut $328 billion—primarily by reducing Medicaid benefits.

After repeated failures to repeal the ACA and watching public opposition grow stronger with every misstep, the GOP eventually abandoned their crusade against it. This time, they won’t directly target the ACA. But to fund their “big beautiful billionaires’ bill,” they have little choice but to go after Medicaid’s critical resources instead.

The GOP lacks a filibuster-proof majority in the Senate, falling short of the 60 votes needed with only 53. Their only path to passing legislation with a simple majority is through the reconciliation process. However, this process comes with strict rules: any bill passed cannot reduce federal revenue by more than $1.5 trillion over a ten-year period, and it cannot make changes to Social Security.

Crucially, the $1.5 trillion cap is not per bill—it’s cumulative. While multiple bills can be passed in a single year, their combined impact must stay within the $1.5 trillion limit over the decade.

Under these limitations the best option would be to pass one bill this year and another next year. But the issue for Donald Trump is the 2017 Trump tax cuts are set to expire this year. His investors are going to be miffed if he lets the tax cuts expire, so tax cuts have to clear the table this year.

The next challenge is one of Biden’s making. Over four years, his administration has expanded the economy by more than $8 trillion. To renew Trump’s tax cuts—which would significantly reduce federal revenue—the GOP needs at least $4.5 trillion in offsets. But the reconciliation rulebook caps revenue reductions at $1.5 trillion over ten years. That leaves the GOP scrambling to find an additional $3 trillion, or roughly $300 billion per year.

Enter Medicaid. The GOP is poised to target Medicaid benefits to fill the gap, funneling savings to fund tax cuts for the billionaires who have bankrolled the MAGA agenda. But there’s a strategic catch: if Trump pursues the tax cuts as a standalone bill, every line will be scrutinized, exposing his intentions.

To avoid this, he’s likely to bundle the tax cuts with divisive measures on immigration and energy into one sprawling package. This approach isn’t just about policy; it’s about distraction. By creating an uproar over harsh immigration measures and incendiary energy policies, he can keep his MAGA base enthralled. Their outrage will be focused on the spectacle, not on the Medicaid cuts funding tax breaks for the ultra-wealthy.

This move forces the opposition to spread its focus thin, diluting their ability to counter any one piece effectively. It’s a classic Trump strategy: Distract, Divide, and Conquer.

The final consideration reveals a key dynamic within the GOP. While some speculate that Trump might face resistance in the House, I disagree. Once Medicaid cuts are on the table, the Freedom Caucus will fall in line without hesitation. For years, they’ve sought to strip benefits from seniors to pad the pockets of billionaires. This is the moment they’ve been waiting for, and they’ll back Trump’s plan wholeheartedly.

Trump’s real challenge lies in the Senate. He can’t afford to lose more than three senators. To secure their support, timing is critical. Every presidency comes with a honeymoon period, usually extending well into the first year. For Trump, this window to wield maximum political capital will likely close by late 2025. Once his approval ratings begin to slide, senators will feel emboldened to push back.

To avoid this, Trump will move swiftly. He’ll put the bill in front of the Senate early, ensuring it lands during his peak leverage period. If any senators resist, he and Elon Musk, will lean on them relentlessly, using every tactic at their disposal to strong-arm them into submission.

Can we stop calling this person an idiot? I’m asking you with bended knee. It only weakens our response. Trump’s plan is well thought out—it’s broad daylight theft.

Medicaid isn’t a handout—it’s a cornerstone of the system Americans have paid into their entire lives. Through income taxes, payroll taxes, and other contributions, workers have fueled federal revenues with the understanding that programs like Medicaid and Medicare will be there when they or their families need them most. Slashing these benefits isn’t just a policy choice; it’s a betrayal of the contract with the very people who built this country.

These aren’t handouts; this is their money. They worked, they paid, and the government is simply returning what’s rightfully theirs. Calling it “spending” misrepresents the truth—it’s a repayment, funded by the hard-earned dollars of ordinary Americans. Yet, the GOP plans to siphon off this money, not to return it to those who paid for it, but to line the pockets of billionaires.

It’s nothing short of stealing from poor Rob to pay rich Peter.

Democrats need to take a stand and stop this theft. They must rally the public to oppose any cuts to Medicaid—this is the fight that matters most.

Stop the Steal.

Forget about distractions like immigration and energy for now. Stay laser-focused on protecting Medicaid. Win this battle, and the others can be tackled in time.

One freaking problem at a time.

Stay focused.