Trump’s reverence for Putin wasn’t the main event. The real story is Europe’s financial muscle, artillery factories, and a Starlink deal that Musk can’t walk away from.
Evidently Merz has approximately zero trust for Musk as well, as evidenced by him very publicly making it as socially difficult and reputationally expensive as possible for Musk personally and for Musk’s businesses and for the US as a whole if they betray Ukraine in that area again.
It is very difficult right now, especially with a ton of pending contracts in Europe. I think he lost the room to move around. The arrogant musk will be gone. Now, we will get the genius musk who will try to save the world.
Wow — excellent point. That you so much for pointing out this important point, that certainly deserves to be highlighted in the middle of all that noise.
Yes. No one seems to have taken note of that. A very smart move by Merz. Since Germany is paying for it, Starlink has to answer to Germany for all the terminals.
I'm about to introduce a "fly in the ointment" caution.
"Europe has money. It has motivation. And it now has the political will to create defense sovereignty.
Beware what you ask for: It's not all "one-way".
BAE Systems, a British owned multi-national aerospace, military and information security company is highly integrated with the US military. Five large contracts were recently awarded to them: US Space Command-$1.2 billion; US Navy-$138 million, $478 million, $251 million; US Army-$162 million. American Rheinmetall Defense industry is also a big player, with US Army contracts. This illustrates how inter-connected the US and European defense firms are.
A complete movement towards European defense industry independence, coupled with cancellation of existing contracts with US defense companies might very well initiate a "tit-for-tat" blowback from the Trump regime ( a very likely one, I think). The result would be economically painful...on both sides of the Atlantic because these contracts involve jobs, facilities, and tech transfer arrangements. Furthermore there is precedent for such actions: think post-Gaullist France, or Turkey’s S-400 purchase fallout with the U.S.
This integration of the western defense industry is complex, making any "fall-out" from present day politics hard to predict. It's another unexpected complication introduced by the unpredictabilty of US political instability.
If you look at it, a clean cut is impossible to achieve and it may not even be necessary. What needs to be done is reduce the sky high dependency and allow European and Ukrainian production to achieve economies of scale. It is a long road, but will be totally worth it.
I know. Hurts me too. But here is the good news in it. A strong Europe and Canada, will hold the democratic world together and someday the United States can limp back to becoming a vibrant democracy again.
I've been thinking the same - my biggest fear was total anarchy in the global order as a result of the US pullback. Canada and Europe, even Mexico, having good leadership is extremely reassuring!
I’m not ashamed or embarrassed as I have never, ever voted for him. I knew what he was when he picked a fight with Rosie O’Donnell. He was supposed to be some big real estate guy but just showed the world his misogyny, his pettiness & the need to be a bully, that is, not a nice man. As the years went by, my opinion didn’t change & when he was elected this second time & both my children voted for him, I searched for more information about who he was. That’s when I learned he was the 3rd generation of liars and grifters. His grandfather who died before he was born left Bavaria (now a part of Germany) as a teenager to avoid his mandatory military service (ironic, isn’t it considering our draft dodging ‘leader’). He came to the States but returned after 5 or 6 years & applied for German citizenship. Unfortunately for us, he was refused because of the way he had originally left. He returned to America with a young wife, opened up lodging & eateries, all with associated prostitution. He eventually settled in New York & Fred Sr. was his first child. dRumpf (I use his grandfathers original spelling) learned racism, misogyny & thievery at the knee of his father. So now you know his history, at least the paternal side - 3 generations of not nice men.
I say I am ashamed because of what America has done under Deumpf
I've read his niece's revealing book about him (and h I s father & grandfather) Fred attended Nazi rallies at Madison Square Garden. Donald became physically threatening to his mother so Fred sent hi. To military school and his mother said she was relieved to have him out of the house.& mother once reportedly asked his first wife “what sort of son have I created”.
You might want to read the book, Too Much and never enough
It is a bad result for the EU, but not so bad for Ukraine. Orban gets some underground, behind the screen support. But nothing major. It is irritating and it will slow things down, but it wont be very bad.
Trump is WEAK. He cannot HOLD a position in space. Whether that space is in the real world or in politics, in the white house or in geopolitical activities. That is what makes him so attractive to the people who are pulling his strings.
I think what needs to happen and I think that since the people running this show in Europe aren't stupid, I think this type of stuff will happen: EVERY TIME Trump talks to Putin there needs to be two or three calls from European leaders immediately after. Getting back in his ear and saying something like this:
1. Tell him they want to keep him abreast of what is going on because they revere and value his backup, his knowledge and his personality. Apply the butter liberally. In fact, the backup part is the main thing, but the other parts are also true if viewed in the right light. They DO value his knowledge and his personality. Maybe not in the way he thinks they do, but that is another story.
2. Tell him what they are doing in terms of artillery production.
3. Tell him what they are doing in terms of bringing the EU together as a stronger unit both militarily and economically. Couch this in terms of how they are following his direction from the past and standing on their own two feet as NATO.
4. Tell him what they are doing in terms of strengthening their militaries. Give him some specifics.
5. Tell him what they are doing in terms of strengthening Ukraine’s military production. What military hardware factories they are helping Ukraine build.
6. Tell him that the EU economy is X times as big as Russia’s right now and with what they have going on, it will be X plus Y bigger in the next six months and X plus Z bigger in the next year. Tell him without telling him that Russia doesn't stand a bleeping chance. Get him to understand that Putin is stringing him along and that Putin is actually in a very weak position while they are in a strong position. Leave the name of Trump out of that part of the conversation. He will figure out that backing Europe is the smart thing to do on his own.
7. He has to learn that the EU is NOT going to back off on backing up Ukraine. They are backing Ukraine to the hilt.
8. He needs to have is mind changed without any apparent sales tactics that sticking with Putin is what a real chump and idiot would do. I am assuming that those talking to him will be better at than I am. Remember that Trump has sold a lot of shit in his day.
9. They need to make it clear without saying so that if he comes in on the EU’s side, things will work out better for him personally. I am not sure how to make this work mathematically but it will work out. Maybe he will suffer less politically if he backs the EU and Ukraine. Realize that if Putin gives him a bunch of money, he will go with Putin.
10. Tell him the latest about what is going on in Russia. Tell him how the Russian Economy is struggling. Let him know that Putin probably won’t tell him this but that their super-duper, extra pooper intelligence services (If fact they can get the data from Substack as far as I care) are finding that Putin’s economy is getting ready to collapse.
11. The thing is to PR him.
12. If they can find out who the Pro EU and Pro Ukraine advisors are in the Trump admin (they probably already know) they can figure out ways to strengthen those people.
13. Trump like that old song about England, swings like a pendulum do (Roger Miller, 1965). There isn’t much they can do about that. The thing to do is to get the swing going back in the other direction whenever a swing happens in the Putin direction.
The now-deleted then-resurrected post makes one thing brutally clear: the sanctions bill is dead. It’s not coming—not in this environment. Unless the national security hawks inside the GOP establishment find a way to regroup and force the issue, it won’t even make it to the floor. My confidence in that bill? Hovering just above zero. Not zero—but very close.”
Brilliant Shankar, I do have one question through. Why isn’t the Military Industrial Complex lobbying Congress? I thought the sanctions bill was all but done. Last I heard, the senate had 81 votes. A veto proof number of senators ready to be voted Yeah. What happened, or was it always dead in the House?
That said, it looks like Trump just got his clock cleaned again. If the Trump administration was a movie, it would be called “Dazed and Confused!”
“And once that shift completes, the realignment won’t be diplomatic—it will be industrial.”
It’s already happening. Europe, for all its bureaucratic delays and hesitations, is not stupid. The US is an unreliable (dare I say schizophrenic) partner, upon whom it is too dangerous to rely. They can see this, and can recognize that it’ll take the death of MAGA, Fox News, and Putin’s propaganda machine before the US has a chance to heal its fractured psyche. It’s not Trump. It’s the whole right-wing ecosystem that has split the US.
Expecting — relying — on rationality from this damaged partner, at any level, for the next 20 years, is stupid.
The change is happening. And once it starts, institutional momentum will be hard to stop.
At the rate the wheels turn in Europe, I don’t expect to see a healthy defense relationship between Europe and the US for another 30 years.
Thank you for your helpful analysis once again! What also preoccupies me is the development and mass production of fiber optic drones in which the Russians seem to have a clear edge. Plus, they have the help of China to produce them en masse. What do you make of this risk?
Curious. I understand the war complex needs to have the perception of a fight with Iran or whomever. But wouldn’t it behoove this military complex to regain the trust of Europe so they can continue to market to it? Or has that ship sailed? I mean who are they selling to? Do you foresee them selling to Russia? (Apologies if this is very naive— I am relatively new at understanding the military complex. But I am happy to hear rheinmetall mentioned. I bought that stock back in February.
Thank you Shankar. I hope the plan with Starlink works. My trust level is very low.
Evidently Merz has approximately zero trust for Musk as well, as evidenced by him very publicly making it as socially difficult and reputationally expensive as possible for Musk personally and for Musk’s businesses and for the US as a whole if they betray Ukraine in that area again.
I have that bad feeling in the pit of my stomach. When Ukraine needed Starlink and it was shut off it was more than a missed 'moment'
It is very difficult right now, especially with a ton of pending contracts in Europe. I think he lost the room to move around. The arrogant musk will be gone. Now, we will get the genius musk who will try to save the world.
Shankar I thought I might be the eternal optimist. Here I will hang on to your thoughts on the matter.. (!)
“But instead, he singled out Starlink”
Wow — excellent point. That you so much for pointing out this important point, that certainly deserves to be highlighted in the middle of all that noise.
Yes. No one seems to have taken note of that. A very smart move by Merz. Since Germany is paying for it, Starlink has to answer to Germany for all the terminals.
I'm about to introduce a "fly in the ointment" caution.
"Europe has money. It has motivation. And it now has the political will to create defense sovereignty.
Beware what you ask for: It's not all "one-way".
BAE Systems, a British owned multi-national aerospace, military and information security company is highly integrated with the US military. Five large contracts were recently awarded to them: US Space Command-$1.2 billion; US Navy-$138 million, $478 million, $251 million; US Army-$162 million. American Rheinmetall Defense industry is also a big player, with US Army contracts. This illustrates how inter-connected the US and European defense firms are.
A complete movement towards European defense industry independence, coupled with cancellation of existing contracts with US defense companies might very well initiate a "tit-for-tat" blowback from the Trump regime ( a very likely one, I think). The result would be economically painful...on both sides of the Atlantic because these contracts involve jobs, facilities, and tech transfer arrangements. Furthermore there is precedent for such actions: think post-Gaullist France, or Turkey’s S-400 purchase fallout with the U.S.
This integration of the western defense industry is complex, making any "fall-out" from present day politics hard to predict. It's another unexpected complication introduced by the unpredictabilty of US political instability.
If you look at it, a clean cut is impossible to achieve and it may not even be necessary. What needs to be done is reduce the sky high dependency and allow European and Ukrainian production to achieve economies of scale. It is a long road, but will be totally worth it.
And our northern neighbor, Canada, is showing how to build new alliances & forge a new pathway. Elbows Up Canada! 🇨🇦
"they’re going to wake up one morning and realize they’re not selling into Europe—they’re competing with it"
I think that this has already happened, vis, Canada saying they'll defend themselves, basically saying goodbye to NORAD.
Trump has destroyed my country. I'm embarrassed and ashamed to be an American
I know. Hurts me too. But here is the good news in it. A strong Europe and Canada, will hold the democratic world together and someday the United States can limp back to becoming a vibrant democracy again.
Thanks for that hopeful message. Shankar.
Love your insightful pieces!
I've been thinking the same - my biggest fear was total anarchy in the global order as a result of the US pullback. Canada and Europe, even Mexico, having good leadership is extremely reassuring!
I’m not ashamed or embarrassed as I have never, ever voted for him. I knew what he was when he picked a fight with Rosie O’Donnell. He was supposed to be some big real estate guy but just showed the world his misogyny, his pettiness & the need to be a bully, that is, not a nice man. As the years went by, my opinion didn’t change & when he was elected this second time & both my children voted for him, I searched for more information about who he was. That’s when I learned he was the 3rd generation of liars and grifters. His grandfather who died before he was born left Bavaria (now a part of Germany) as a teenager to avoid his mandatory military service (ironic, isn’t it considering our draft dodging ‘leader’). He came to the States but returned after 5 or 6 years & applied for German citizenship. Unfortunately for us, he was refused because of the way he had originally left. He returned to America with a young wife, opened up lodging & eateries, all with associated prostitution. He eventually settled in New York & Fred Sr. was his first child. dRumpf (I use his grandfathers original spelling) learned racism, misogyny & thievery at the knee of his father. So now you know his history, at least the paternal side - 3 generations of not nice men.
I say I am ashamed because of what America has done under Deumpf
I've read his niece's revealing book about him (and h I s father & grandfather) Fred attended Nazi rallies at Madison Square Garden. Donald became physically threatening to his mother so Fred sent hi. To military school and his mother said she was relieved to have him out of the house.& mother once reportedly asked his first wife “what sort of son have I created”.
You might want to read the book, Too Much and never enough
How do the elections in Poland change the dynamics for Ukraine? Are they likely to pull a switcharoo and help Putin out of his hole too?
Public pressure in the US for increased Russian sanctions is a must now despite the attention diverted to the budget, deportations and court cases.
It is a bad result for the EU, but not so bad for Ukraine. Orban gets some underground, behind the screen support. But nothing major. It is irritating and it will slow things down, but it wont be very bad.
Trump is WEAK. He cannot HOLD a position in space. Whether that space is in the real world or in politics, in the white house or in geopolitical activities. That is what makes him so attractive to the people who are pulling his strings.
I think what needs to happen and I think that since the people running this show in Europe aren't stupid, I think this type of stuff will happen: EVERY TIME Trump talks to Putin there needs to be two or three calls from European leaders immediately after. Getting back in his ear and saying something like this:
1. Tell him they want to keep him abreast of what is going on because they revere and value his backup, his knowledge and his personality. Apply the butter liberally. In fact, the backup part is the main thing, but the other parts are also true if viewed in the right light. They DO value his knowledge and his personality. Maybe not in the way he thinks they do, but that is another story.
2. Tell him what they are doing in terms of artillery production.
3. Tell him what they are doing in terms of bringing the EU together as a stronger unit both militarily and economically. Couch this in terms of how they are following his direction from the past and standing on their own two feet as NATO.
4. Tell him what they are doing in terms of strengthening their militaries. Give him some specifics.
5. Tell him what they are doing in terms of strengthening Ukraine’s military production. What military hardware factories they are helping Ukraine build.
6. Tell him that the EU economy is X times as big as Russia’s right now and with what they have going on, it will be X plus Y bigger in the next six months and X plus Z bigger in the next year. Tell him without telling him that Russia doesn't stand a bleeping chance. Get him to understand that Putin is stringing him along and that Putin is actually in a very weak position while they are in a strong position. Leave the name of Trump out of that part of the conversation. He will figure out that backing Europe is the smart thing to do on his own.
7. He has to learn that the EU is NOT going to back off on backing up Ukraine. They are backing Ukraine to the hilt.
8. He needs to have is mind changed without any apparent sales tactics that sticking with Putin is what a real chump and idiot would do. I am assuming that those talking to him will be better at than I am. Remember that Trump has sold a lot of shit in his day.
9. They need to make it clear without saying so that if he comes in on the EU’s side, things will work out better for him personally. I am not sure how to make this work mathematically but it will work out. Maybe he will suffer less politically if he backs the EU and Ukraine. Realize that if Putin gives him a bunch of money, he will go with Putin.
10. Tell him the latest about what is going on in Russia. Tell him how the Russian Economy is struggling. Let him know that Putin probably won’t tell him this but that their super-duper, extra pooper intelligence services (If fact they can get the data from Substack as far as I care) are finding that Putin’s economy is getting ready to collapse.
11. The thing is to PR him.
12. If they can find out who the Pro EU and Pro Ukraine advisors are in the Trump admin (they probably already know) they can figure out ways to strengthen those people.
13. Trump like that old song about England, swings like a pendulum do (Roger Miller, 1965). There isn’t much they can do about that. The thing to do is to get the swing going back in the other direction whenever a swing happens in the Putin direction.
You got the CAPS right, but the use is too coherent, and you’re missing the “Quotes” and exclamation points!
I love your strategy!! Do a snow job but so subtle he doesn’t realize it. Absolutely delicious!!
The now-deleted then-resurrected post makes one thing brutally clear: the sanctions bill is dead. It’s not coming—not in this environment. Unless the national security hawks inside the GOP establishment find a way to regroup and force the issue, it won’t even make it to the floor. My confidence in that bill? Hovering just above zero. Not zero—but very close.”
Brilliant Shankar, I do have one question through. Why isn’t the Military Industrial Complex lobbying Congress? I thought the sanctions bill was all but done. Last I heard, the senate had 81 votes. A veto proof number of senators ready to be voted Yeah. What happened, or was it always dead in the House?
That said, it looks like Trump just got his clock cleaned again. If the Trump administration was a movie, it would be called “Dazed and Confused!”
Shankar, I appreciate you SO much! You give sanity to so much chaos, an amazing gift to share!
I am glad
Trump is never that coherent.
There are zero nouns in ALL CAPS, nor random use of “Quotes,” minimal use of EXCLAMATION POINTS!!!
An encouraging message!
Def. not written by Orange Puke. There are too many complete sentences and way too few incorrectly capitalized words.
With implosion of Tesla, I suspect Musk has less room to play dirty games with Starlink.
I still think France has dropped the ball by not doing a joint Manhattan Project with Eutelsat. But perhaps Starlink is not a dead option.
Really appreciate the detailed analysis!! Crucial topic! Gonna upgrade.😉🙏
“And once that shift completes, the realignment won’t be diplomatic—it will be industrial.”
It’s already happening. Europe, for all its bureaucratic delays and hesitations, is not stupid. The US is an unreliable (dare I say schizophrenic) partner, upon whom it is too dangerous to rely. They can see this, and can recognize that it’ll take the death of MAGA, Fox News, and Putin’s propaganda machine before the US has a chance to heal its fractured psyche. It’s not Trump. It’s the whole right-wing ecosystem that has split the US.
Expecting — relying — on rationality from this damaged partner, at any level, for the next 20 years, is stupid.
The change is happening. And once it starts, institutional momentum will be hard to stop.
At the rate the wheels turn in Europe, I don’t expect to see a healthy defense relationship between Europe and the US for another 30 years.
Thank you for your helpful analysis once again! What also preoccupies me is the development and mass production of fiber optic drones in which the Russians seem to have a clear edge. Plus, they have the help of China to produce them en masse. What do you make of this risk?
Curious. I understand the war complex needs to have the perception of a fight with Iran or whomever. But wouldn’t it behoove this military complex to regain the trust of Europe so they can continue to market to it? Or has that ship sailed? I mean who are they selling to? Do you foresee them selling to Russia? (Apologies if this is very naive— I am relatively new at understanding the military complex. But I am happy to hear rheinmetall mentioned. I bought that stock back in February.