The Russian Domino

If the Assad's regime falls in Syia it will be a huge mortal blow to Putin's objective to destablize the world

November turned out to be one of the worst months for Putin. Russia suffered 45,720 casualties in Ukraine—an average of 1,500 per day. The ruble has tumbled nearly 10% over the past few weeks. With 25% of products in the Russian market being imported, this double-digit fall in the ruble is expected to cause a low single-digit spike in inflation.

Meanwhile, Israel’s three-pronged attack on Hamas, Hezbollah, and Iran has left Syrian dictator Assad’s army without a functioning support system. Rebel factions, once confined to the mountains, are now advancing into the central district of Aleppo—a city that Russian forces nearly razed years ago to secure. The rebels’ rapid advance has allowed them to capture significant quantities of Russian weapons from the Syrian army, which appears desperate to flee.

The Assad-Putin regime called it a “temporary withdrawal.” If so, why abandon the weapons?

They ran.

Aleppo had been a stronghold where Assad stationed some of his best troops. If they couldn’t hold their ground, things look dire for Assad. The extent to which the rebels can sustain their advance remains uncertain, but the Syrian army’s retreat reveals a profound weakness in resisting the offensive.

Earlier this week, Bashar al-Assad was in Moscow and returned to Syria a few days later. It’s clear he needs troops and support—or he risks being overrun. But Putin has little to spare. A staggering casualty rate of 45,720 troops in one month—1,500 per day—is 500 more than Russia’s daily recruitment rate.

Putin, of course, does not care.

He would be more than happy to send all the Russians to die in Ukraine if it meant saving his position as emperor. His problem isn’t the number of men he can find—it’s the number of men he is pulling out of the workforce to fight in Ukraine. The 46,000 troops Putin lost in November likely won’t be a benchmark. As has been the tradition since the start of this war, the Russian casualty rate only increases quarter by quarter.

It always rises; it never declines.

Putin is clearly running through his reserves. There’s limited clear or credible information about Ukrainian troop strength, reserve status, or the losses they have sustained in response to Russia’s strategy of treating its army as cannon fodder. While Ukraine did lose a number of settlements last month, there were no significant territorial losses except for Vuhledar. They successfully held the Russians at bay in Kupiansk, Chasiv Yar, and Pokrovsk. The Russians have also failed to advance in the Kharkiv direction.

Ukraine has made Putin’s army pay a very heavy price for its current advances. The fully equipped Anne de Kyiv brigade, trained in France, has yet to be deployed to the frontlines. I believe that at least three additional brigades are also waiting for deployment. This suggests that Ukraine might be holding back its reserves, letting Putin deplete as much of his strength as possible before launching a counter-offensive.

With the average lifespan of a newly recruited Russian conscript in battle now dropping to less than a month, the concept of “trained Russian reserves” is essentially nonexistent. Russia’s offensive appears to be an act of defensive desperation.

This creates an extremely dangerous situation, especially if Ukraine is strategically holding its reserves back.

• If Putin had sufficient reserves, Assad wouldn’t have abandoned Aleppo in Syria.

• If Putin had enough strength, Turkey wouldn’t have publicly stated that it will not accept Ukraine ceding territory in a post-war settlement.

• If Putin believed his missile stockpile was adequate to secure victory, he wouldn’t be discussing testing experimental missiles.

The end is closer than it looks.

There will be much talk about ceasefires, negotiations, territorial disputes, and a host of other issues. Take it all in stride. The temperature goes up when the fever hits high gear.