“Xi Jinping doesn't like either option. His affection for Putin isn't deep enough to absorb economic costs for China. "Assistance lite" is what Xi will prefer—not Putin's "phone a friend" lifeline. This lifeline can be severed with diplomatic effort.”
Excellent analysis Shankar, and incredible news. Not only is Trump being exposed as a “useless invertebrate,” Putin is finally exposed as an obtuse, evil imbecile he always was.
Putin and Trump are two peas in a pod. Neither can read the room. And Xi knows Putin’s overall strategy is an exercise in futility. After three years, Putin is still bogged down in a war of attrition that was supposed to be a “very” short-term military operation.
Bottom line: Ukraine is Putin’s Afghanistan. And what Putin is finally learning is that when a nation is fighting for its very existence, and Russia is fighting for nothing by Putin’s bruised ego, motivation can be a determinable force in the face of pure EVIL!
Well done Shankar, there is a reason you have become our best resource when understanding this insane agenda by a derange lunatic still living in the 20th century.
And fair enough, this description could apply to either Putin or Trump; most likely both!…:)
But I have a strong feeling that Putin is going to desperately try to rope Xi in. It is the only door and he wont mind taking the knee. That is why I think it will be important for Starmer, Macron and Merz to apply co-ordinated pressure.
You’re 100% right. You’ve said it from the beginning; this entire threat by Russia will come down to European cooperation. And it looks like they have finally found common ground; realizing America won’t be their savior, and the Russian threat is greater than they could have ever imagined, since Putin, like Trump, can’t be reasoned with.
Who would have ever thought that Trump could be a “uniting” factor in this predicament; scaring the bejesus out of NATO and the EU into finally realizing what’s at stake, and that there will be no white knights to the rescue.
Thanks again Shankar and have a wonderful Labor Day, if you celebrate it since you live in Europe…:)
I love your optimism and your strategic proposals. Do you have any idea whether the people in Trump's circle read you? Also, don't you think that China will help Russia just enough so that when Russia is defeated it will become a simple China client state? It will provide China with weapons and maybe troops in to take over Taiwan, no matter what the West does.
They actually don't want Russia to break into pieces. Xi feels it is too much pressure without the Russian buffer against the west. But yes there are some nationalist factions that are salivating over a potential expansion of the borders but the communist party leaders do not share that view.
But given the current absolutely nutty Trump money making schemes, China is caught between an economically dying Russia and a batshit crazy Trump led US.
He should for economically reasons look at making good deals with Europe, including agreeing not to aid Russia’s war on Ukraine.
Don't know about Trump's inner circle but the story I broke about Colby on July 4th moved inside the congress. I kinda know who reads it but not fair to disturb their privacy.
I’d be surprised if anyone in trump’s inner circle has much time to read anything while frantically trying to salvage any credibility or legitimacy in their self inflicted circus of ludicrous idiocy image.
Chock full of great stuff. I noticed that you characterized the ERAMS as weapons that can be used to strike Russian occupied Ukrainian territories. With absolutely devastating effect I’m guessing. I understand these missiles could easily strike inside Russia but the U.S. is still attaching a string at the moment. It would be nice to use them inside Russia but, as evidenced by Ukraine’s performance of late, not essential. Homemade weaponry is beginning to get the job done.
Yes. There are Russian territories in the north Ukraine could easily attach using the F16s. But they will most likely be stopped by the Pentagon. My guess Erams will be pointed at occupied territory.
“What's truly significant is that this was the second attack on the same refinery in just three weeks. The first strike hit on August 2nd, the second on August 28th.”
I was going to mention this somewhere, so I tried to double-check this statement. What I found was: Novokuybyshevsk refinery attacked (and put out of commission, with repairs estimated to take about a month) on August 2nd. Kuibyshev refinery attacked (and put out of commission) on August 28th.
Both are in the same general area of Russia (Samara Oblast), but they’re different refineries.
While looking into this, I also saw a third refinery in Samara Oblast mentioned: Syzran oil refinery, attacked (and put out of commission, with repairs estimated to take “at least until the end of the month”) by Ukrainian drones on August 15th.
“I think Putin will now be looking to China or other partners to buy some critical resources from Russia. He may even sell off large tracts of mineral, oil, and gas resources—perhaps forever, perhaps for 100-year leases.”
Are the “annual growth” percentages in your graphic in terms of rubles or in terms of purchasing power in Russia?
I’m asking because if you have positive growth in terms of rubles, but inflation which is much greater than the growth rate, you have a very significant contraction in terms of purchasing power which is what matters for the economy.
In fact, given how much inflation in Russia exceeds those stated growth rates, even a relatively small inaccuracy in regard to how the rate of inflation is estimated (let’s not forget that we don’t know how much of the underlying data is manipulated by Russia’s very dishonest government) could change that picture dramatically.
The conclusion of my reflections is that Russia’s real economic situation certainly isn’t better than what that graphic shows, but for all we know, it might actually be much worse.
I now feel well informed. I am delighted Europe is making both Putin and Trump feel weak for stalling on meeting with Zelensky on the one hand and placing severe sanctions on Russia on the other.
I had wondered about Putin’s provocative bombings of a U.S. company and an EU property. Your explanation makes perfect sense. Caine seems extremely logical. That is good against Putin.
it is wonderful news that Ukraine continues to take out fuel faclities. What percentage have been wiped out after last night? And your explanation of Xi's likely response to a Putin request is very reassuring. I hope Starmer, Merz and Macron take your sage advice.
All in all a day for good cheer at least on one front, but one that matters tremendously. And the more Putin looks like he is failing, the more Trump will pull away
Now if we could keep Trump's tariffs unconstitutional, fie Kennedy and keep Trump out of the Fed I could take a nap in peace.
This is very reassuring. It makes sense that Putin is in so deep that China won't be pursuaded to dig him out, especially with added pressure from Europe. Thank you.
“Xi Jinping doesn't like either option. His affection for Putin isn't deep enough to absorb economic costs for China. "Assistance lite" is what Xi will prefer—not Putin's "phone a friend" lifeline. This lifeline can be severed with diplomatic effort.”
Excellent analysis Shankar, and incredible news. Not only is Trump being exposed as a “useless invertebrate,” Putin is finally exposed as an obtuse, evil imbecile he always was.
Putin and Trump are two peas in a pod. Neither can read the room. And Xi knows Putin’s overall strategy is an exercise in futility. After three years, Putin is still bogged down in a war of attrition that was supposed to be a “very” short-term military operation.
Bottom line: Ukraine is Putin’s Afghanistan. And what Putin is finally learning is that when a nation is fighting for its very existence, and Russia is fighting for nothing by Putin’s bruised ego, motivation can be a determinable force in the face of pure EVIL!
Well done Shankar, there is a reason you have become our best resource when understanding this insane agenda by a derange lunatic still living in the 20th century.
And fair enough, this description could apply to either Putin or Trump; most likely both!…:)
But I have a strong feeling that Putin is going to desperately try to rope Xi in. It is the only door and he wont mind taking the knee. That is why I think it will be important for Starmer, Macron and Merz to apply co-ordinated pressure.
You’re 100% right. You’ve said it from the beginning; this entire threat by Russia will come down to European cooperation. And it looks like they have finally found common ground; realizing America won’t be their savior, and the Russian threat is greater than they could have ever imagined, since Putin, like Trump, can’t be reasoned with.
Who would have ever thought that Trump could be a “uniting” factor in this predicament; scaring the bejesus out of NATO and the EU into finally realizing what’s at stake, and that there will be no white knights to the rescue.
Thanks again Shankar and have a wonderful Labor Day, if you celebrate it since you live in Europe…:)
I love your optimism and your strategic proposals. Do you have any idea whether the people in Trump's circle read you? Also, don't you think that China will help Russia just enough so that when Russia is defeated it will become a simple China client state? It will provide China with weapons and maybe troops in to take over Taiwan, no matter what the West does.
They actually don't want Russia to break into pieces. Xi feels it is too much pressure without the Russian buffer against the west. But yes there are some nationalist factions that are salivating over a potential expansion of the borders but the communist party leaders do not share that view.
But given the current absolutely nutty Trump money making schemes, China is caught between an economically dying Russia and a batshit crazy Trump led US.
He should for economically reasons look at making good deals with Europe, including agreeing not to aid Russia’s war on Ukraine.
Yea. He is in different type of lock.
Don't know about Trump's inner circle but the story I broke about Colby on July 4th moved inside the congress. I kinda know who reads it but not fair to disturb their privacy.
I’d be surprised if anyone in trump’s inner circle has much time to read anything while frantically trying to salvage any credibility or legitimacy in their self inflicted circus of ludicrous idiocy image.
I am glad there was a strong response to the attack on a Texas company in Ukraine. I have been wondering why it got such limited coverage.
Chock full of great stuff. I noticed that you characterized the ERAMS as weapons that can be used to strike Russian occupied Ukrainian territories. With absolutely devastating effect I’m guessing. I understand these missiles could easily strike inside Russia but the U.S. is still attaching a string at the moment. It would be nice to use them inside Russia but, as evidenced by Ukraine’s performance of late, not essential. Homemade weaponry is beginning to get the job done.
Yes. There are Russian territories in the north Ukraine could easily attach using the F16s. But they will most likely be stopped by the Pentagon. My guess Erams will be pointed at occupied territory.
“What's truly significant is that this was the second attack on the same refinery in just three weeks. The first strike hit on August 2nd, the second on August 28th.”
I was going to mention this somewhere, so I tried to double-check this statement. What I found was: Novokuybyshevsk refinery attacked (and put out of commission, with repairs estimated to take about a month) on August 2nd. Kuibyshev refinery attacked (and put out of commission) on August 28th.
Both are in the same general area of Russia (Samara Oblast), but they’re different refineries.
While looking into this, I also saw a third refinery in Samara Oblast mentioned: Syzran oil refinery, attacked (and put out of commission, with repairs estimated to take “at least until the end of the month”) by Ukrainian drones on August 15th.
Agreed. There is a 20km distance between the two. That was a mistake but the deduction still holds due to the proximity. Thank you..
“I think Putin will now be looking to China or other partners to buy some critical resources from Russia. He may even sell off large tracts of mineral, oil, and gas resources—perhaps forever, perhaps for 100-year leases.”
Any buyers are fools, given that Putin is in no position to credibly claim that Russia’s promises in such contracts have more value than e.g. Russia’s promises to Ukraine in the Budapest Memorandum https://treaties.un.org/doc/Publication/UNTS/Volume%203007/Part/volume-3007-I-52241.pdf .
Are the “annual growth” percentages in your graphic in terms of rubles or in terms of purchasing power in Russia?
I’m asking because if you have positive growth in terms of rubles, but inflation which is much greater than the growth rate, you have a very significant contraction in terms of purchasing power which is what matters for the economy.
In fact, given how much inflation in Russia exceeds those stated growth rates, even a relatively small inaccuracy in regard to how the rate of inflation is estimated (let’s not forget that we don’t know how much of the underlying data is manipulated by Russia’s very dishonest government) could change that picture dramatically.
The conclusion of my reflections is that Russia’s real economic situation certainly isn’t better than what that graphic shows, but for all we know, it might actually be much worse.
I now feel well informed. I am delighted Europe is making both Putin and Trump feel weak for stalling on meeting with Zelensky on the one hand and placing severe sanctions on Russia on the other.
I had wondered about Putin’s provocative bombings of a U.S. company and an EU property. Your explanation makes perfect sense. Caine seems extremely logical. That is good against Putin.
it is wonderful news that Ukraine continues to take out fuel faclities. What percentage have been wiped out after last night? And your explanation of Xi's likely response to a Putin request is very reassuring. I hope Starmer, Merz and Macron take your sage advice.
All in all a day for good cheer at least on one front, but one that matters tremendously. And the more Putin looks like he is failing, the more Trump will pull away
Now if we could keep Trump's tariffs unconstitutional, fie Kennedy and keep Trump out of the Fed I could take a nap in peace.
Let's not forget the mineral rights speculation as well as their oil Putin was counting on after he took Ukraine...
Xi doesn’t forget Russia stole vasts parts of Eastern China after World War II. He’s giving Poots enough rope to hang himself.
The relationship with Europe, Canada, Mexico, and South America is more important than Russia. Xi likes having options open.
As to NATO not expanding to the Pacific, dumb move. Japan and South Korea et al need to start on these discussions. FSA is unreliable.
Yay!🇺🇦do svidaniya, Putie!🇺🇦Slava Ukraini!🇺🇦
This is very reassuring. It makes sense that Putin is in so deep that China won't be pursuaded to dig him out, especially with added pressure from Europe. Thank you.
Excellent article,.... again!! Thank you for sharing. Very important. 👌💯❤