I "like"the clarity of your analysis- even its starkness- I can't stand the attack on entrepreneurialism by citizens and allowing this President to be ensconced as the Entrepreneur-in-Chief.
All of Trump's policies favor large corporations in favor of competition from small business and entrepreneurs. The tariffs in particular are crushing to small companies. Ending the de minimis exemption killed lots of small businesses.
This is why we are organising for resistance, through Indivisible, 50501, Sister District, TroubleNation and countless other groups. From house parties and book clubs and visibility brigades hanging overpass signs, to marches, boycots, and protests against ICE, the pro-democracy coalitions are building. There are hundreds of ways the resistance is taking actions, and more peole are getting involved. We will not let this stand, and I appreciate you keeping us informed, Shankar.
Sitting inside the euro zone has its advantages. Kick em out then you will see the real inflation. But not worth the risk right now with elections around rgw corner. Focus must be to win the elections fair and square.
“The United States remains far from Hungary's condition.”
Nevertheless, CEOs of many major US companies already see risks of being viewed negatively by MAGA fascists and Trump in particular as so great that they’re scrambling to appease and flatter him.
Anyone who currently invests in US equity or debt securities is a fool.
This is excellent analysis that fits a lot of different pieces together into a very clear picture.
One major US constraint is its dependence on a global bond market. Another comment raised the issue of the EU, but the US has no such backstop. For context, I see a 2%+ spread between Hungary and Poland for 10yr bonds, which would presumably soar absent the EU. If international investors lose confidence in US treasuries, the potential for a currency crisis that would cause widespread economic pain seems within the realm of possibility.
“The Austrian retailer SPAR, which runs hundreds of supermarkets in Hungary, publicly accused the government in 2024 of harassment designed to force a sale of its local business. German companies in construction and cement have voiced similar frustrations, after suddenly facing 90% "superprofit" taxes that made profitability impossible — while government-connected bidders emerged with offers to take the assets off their hands.”
Excellent analysis Shankar, and I couldn’t agree more! Project 2025 wasn’t the original vision of The Heritage Foundation, it’s actually almost an exact replica of Hungary’s authoritarian playbook; translated into English.
That said, since Hungary is in the EU, wouldn’t there be recourse and a remedy through the Court of Justice of the European Union (CJEU)?
Moreover, how can Hungary get away with the blatant disregard for EU commerce laws? This is literally how Russia operates and the reason we passed the Magnitsky Act in 2012. It’s one thing for Orban to take advantage of Hungarian businesses, but German and Austrian companies?
And you’re right, if Hungary wasn’t in the EU, inflation there would be equivalent to a banana republic or a kakistocracy by now. It’s only been their ability to shakedown the EU for Ukrainian aid that’s been Hungary’s saving grace.
And as far as the US goes, it’s not just Intel. The U.S. Department of War, formally the U.S. Department of Defense, just acquired a stake in MP Materials in July by purchasing $400 million of the company's preferred stock, approximately 15% of the company. MD Materials is a rare earth mining company.
Moreover, you have a National Security Agreement (NSA) that allowed Nippon Steel’s acquisition of US Steel. This NSA includes provisions that grant the U.S. government a "golden share," providing it veto power over certain management decisions. Additionally, in the Skydance merger with Paramount, Skydance agreed to allow Trump to install censors to make sure their content meets the government’s or should I say Heritage’s “Christian values” standards! Whatever that means!
Couple this with the shakedowns at University’s under the guise of anti-semitism, DEI and wokeness, and Trump invading blue state and cities; puts us light years ahead of Hungary’s ten year authoritarian coup.
Bottom line, while you’re right; we need to win in 2028, it’s also critical we at least take the House in the midterms, otherwise, I’m not sure the 2028 election will be fair and free. It too, will resemble Hungary’s competitive democracy, in which it’s possible the opposition can win, but the scales are so tilted so far in the incumbents favor, that’s it’s highly unlikely! And here we are! IMHO…:)
A President needs to have a substantial core component of altruism- an essential element, undetectable in DT, and likely an anathema in his administration.
Truly frightening. Destruction of any concept of free markets and competition that are left while people don't understand and continue to believe in it
I "like"the clarity of your analysis- even its starkness- I can't stand the attack on entrepreneurialism by citizens and allowing this President to be ensconced as the Entrepreneur-in-Chief.
All of Trump's policies favor large corporations in favor of competition from small business and entrepreneurs. The tariffs in particular are crushing to small companies. Ending the de minimis exemption killed lots of small businesses.
This is why we are organising for resistance, through Indivisible, 50501, Sister District, TroubleNation and countless other groups. From house parties and book clubs and visibility brigades hanging overpass signs, to marches, boycots, and protests against ICE, the pro-democracy coalitions are building. There are hundreds of ways the resistance is taking actions, and more peole are getting involved. We will not let this stand, and I appreciate you keeping us informed, Shankar.
We saw this coming. Hungary’s takeover of the central bank brought in inflation of 83%. Trump is literally trying to destroy the country.
I hope it is clear to those in business that, as in Russia, the perils of ownership can be existential—keep passing those open windows.
Sitting inside the euro zone has its advantages. Kick em out then you will see the real inflation. But not worth the risk right now with elections around rgw corner. Focus must be to win the elections fair and square.
“Hungary’s takeover of the central bank brought in inflation of 83%.”
What precisely are you talking about? (Confusing Hungary with another country?)
Easy. Mistakes happen..
Great piece, Shankar!
Thanks. I took a long time to write it. Almost two weeks.
Thank you, Shankar Excellent essay
Bullseye Shankar, a concise analysis, and scary as hell...
“The United States remains far from Hungary's condition.”
Nevertheless, CEOs of many major US companies already see risks of being viewed negatively by MAGA fascists and Trump in particular as so great that they’re scrambling to appease and flatter him.
Anyone who currently invests in US equity or debt securities is a fool.
True that the CEOs are scrambling, but can you say more about how that translates directly into equity or debt performance.
This is excellent analysis that fits a lot of different pieces together into a very clear picture.
One major US constraint is its dependence on a global bond market. Another comment raised the issue of the EU, but the US has no such backstop. For context, I see a 2%+ spread between Hungary and Poland for 10yr bonds, which would presumably soar absent the EU. If international investors lose confidence in US treasuries, the potential for a currency crisis that would cause widespread economic pain seems within the realm of possibility.
Great insight... and terrifying.
“The Austrian retailer SPAR, which runs hundreds of supermarkets in Hungary, publicly accused the government in 2024 of harassment designed to force a sale of its local business. German companies in construction and cement have voiced similar frustrations, after suddenly facing 90% "superprofit" taxes that made profitability impossible — while government-connected bidders emerged with offers to take the assets off their hands.”
Excellent analysis Shankar, and I couldn’t agree more! Project 2025 wasn’t the original vision of The Heritage Foundation, it’s actually almost an exact replica of Hungary’s authoritarian playbook; translated into English.
That said, since Hungary is in the EU, wouldn’t there be recourse and a remedy through the Court of Justice of the European Union (CJEU)?
Moreover, how can Hungary get away with the blatant disregard for EU commerce laws? This is literally how Russia operates and the reason we passed the Magnitsky Act in 2012. It’s one thing for Orban to take advantage of Hungarian businesses, but German and Austrian companies?
And you’re right, if Hungary wasn’t in the EU, inflation there would be equivalent to a banana republic or a kakistocracy by now. It’s only been their ability to shakedown the EU for Ukrainian aid that’s been Hungary’s saving grace.
And as far as the US goes, it’s not just Intel. The U.S. Department of War, formally the U.S. Department of Defense, just acquired a stake in MP Materials in July by purchasing $400 million of the company's preferred stock, approximately 15% of the company. MD Materials is a rare earth mining company.
Moreover, you have a National Security Agreement (NSA) that allowed Nippon Steel’s acquisition of US Steel. This NSA includes provisions that grant the U.S. government a "golden share," providing it veto power over certain management decisions. Additionally, in the Skydance merger with Paramount, Skydance agreed to allow Trump to install censors to make sure their content meets the government’s or should I say Heritage’s “Christian values” standards! Whatever that means!
Couple this with the shakedowns at University’s under the guise of anti-semitism, DEI and wokeness, and Trump invading blue state and cities; puts us light years ahead of Hungary’s ten year authoritarian coup.
Bottom line, while you’re right; we need to win in 2028, it’s also critical we at least take the House in the midterms, otherwise, I’m not sure the 2028 election will be fair and free. It too, will resemble Hungary’s competitive democracy, in which it’s possible the opposition can win, but the scales are so tilted so far in the incumbents favor, that’s it’s highly unlikely! And here we are! IMHO…:)
A President needs to have a substantial core component of altruism- an essential element, undetectable in DT, and likely an anathema in his administration.
Truly frightening. Destruction of any concept of free markets and competition that are left while people don't understand and continue to believe in it