I am waiting to read the comments for this substack. I know more than a few people who start to read it will then click away when they get offended by some truths that are unfortunately just that… truths. I don’t like it either. It is sad and it is painful. How I wish those ugly truths were not intertwined in our present reality.
I am hoping that folks will read through the entire article. Yes, pick those points you might take an issue with, and pick those points you agree with. Just read it.
Perhaps it is just the people that surround me-the friends and family that I have. Love and care for them dearly, yet we are not often on the same page.
Obama was weak on foreign policy, despite having Biden as VP. By the time he became President, Biden had to claw his way back from Covid and the maga insurrection. It was a tough time for the world, and Russia invading Ukraine with brutality called for stronger measures. Zelenskyy repeatedly asked for more, and we yelled at the tv “send more! Send it all!” So yes it is a hard read to look back at good presidents and see their faults. But now- our officials are picked for their allegiance to a Russian asset, and we are holding our Constitution together with scotch tape and spit. Anything is possible. We’ll see where we are after Saturday’s marches, whether we can infuse Congress with a spine.
Biden failed the foreign affairs test even as he aced it on domestic policy. Biden may have been the warrior voice as VP, but he showed his true bent as prez.
There is a lot of truth here, unfortunately. Obama's failure in Syria didn't look as impactful, then, as it does now. His attempt to focus American foreign policy on the Pacific and relegate Europe and the MIddle East to secondary status proved to be myopic. Biden's decision to "balance" aid to Ukraine has proved to be incredibly short-sighted. Trump has been...predictable.
The fact of the matter is that the US created "world order" was beginning to show signs of aging and "cracks" were beginning to appear for some time. Eighty years of stability is a long time in this world of multi-power geopolitics. Consequently, thanks to Trump's "nail in the coffin" of US hegemony, the US has lost its role as the "leader of the free world" (an amazing amount of hubris reflected in this statement, along with American "exceptionalism"). Regardless of "what or who" comes next, the US is unlikely to regain that lofty status...not even in North America, if Mark Carney can succeed in making "Canada Great".
As for China (now undergoing a calibrated change of leadership as Xi Jinping has been ousted as leader, with a return to Central Committee rule), their control of 67% of rare earth minerals can and will be challenged by Canada*. So the US's mafia-like imposed agreement to access Ukraine's mineral resources will, ultimately, be less impactful. (In any case, that "agreement" has so many possible "opt-outs" that it's unlikely to see fruition).
With Xi Jinping out of power, Putin barely hanging on to power, Trump trying to take power and Israel becoming the main power in the Middle East we are in for turbulent times...and a grand opportunity for free world democracies led by Europe...or Canada...to re-establish a new "world order".
Everything that is happening today is because of what happened in Syria and how US and Germany made a fucking mess out of it. Obama and Merkel --- that is how we got here. Now we have to dig our way out.
I think the Russian protection plan goes back further than Obama. Basically, all the way back to the early 20th century. It is a manifestation of the Monroe Doctrine with the primary aim to weaken and control Europe.
I'm not sure that the US can rescue Russia this time. If the US pushes Ukraine to hard, Ukraine will turn to China. Europe has already discarded US. Witness the recent sanctioning of Israeli politicians. US can huff and puff and do what ever but largely what use to work has stopped working.
After telling Netanyahu for months not to attack Iran? Trump wants a deal, any deal as he has failed to achieve anything. US probably was told about it but not before they couldn't stop it. US acquiesced because they had no choice not because they agreed.
Netanyahu is carrying TACO Don's jockstrap. Even so, Israel had clear intelligence that Iran - a nation that not only stated over and over their goal to rid the planet if Israel - was reaching the capability of producing ten devices in a short time.
The action thus far has been surprisingly successful, targeting both Natanz nuclear facility and it's senior military leadership. Also surprisingly, Israel pulled a Spider's Web with locally planted drones joining the attack.
China has dropped anchor deep into the global mineral supply chain.
This is because processing rate earth minerals is either environmentally filthy but dirt cheap, or environmentally responsible but prohibitively expensive versus Chinese refusal to protect her land and people.
Even if Ukraine starts to mine the minerals, they'll have to choose to compete with China in the race to the environmental bottom, or ship raw ore to China.
The clear solution is to rid our supply chain of rare earth's by reengineering batteries and motors.
I’m trying to learn more about public policy and I love reading your work, Shankar. Can you please help me understand what the U.S.’s motivation is in protecting Putin? Thank you!
Fear of a Post-Putin Russia: It’s a legitimate and deeply rooted concern. Russia is a state with vast natural resources and one of the world’s largest nuclear arsenals. Now imagine Putin being replaced by someone like Yevgeny Prigozhin—the warlord who once mailed a blood-stained sledgehammer to the European Parliament and embraced Stalin-style human wave tactics with pride. For all his faults, Putin is seen in some circles—particularly in Washington—as a "known devil," someone whose moves can be anticipated and, to some extent, managed. A successor could be far more erratic, or far more brutal.
The China Factor: If Russia fractures, China will move. That’s not a possibility—it’s a near certainty. With resource-rich territories suddenly up for grabs or influence, Beijing would have every incentive to step in. And the Pentagon knows it. The real danger isn’t just Chinese expansion—it’s the unpredictability of what comes next. And in military strategy, nothing unnerves planners more than chaos and the unknown.
So all in all it's fear of the unknown. I have seen people and organizations go to great lengths securing a bad outcome out of fear for an uncertain one. This way China wins anyway, playing Russia against the West and weakening both just waiting for the cherries to be ripe to pick.
“But when was the last time Obama was held accountable for violating the Budapest Memorandum — the security guarantees the U.S. gave Ukraine in exchange for giving up its nuclear arsenal? The United States made a promise. And it betrayed it.”
If you read the actual text of the 1994 Budapest Memorandum https://treaties.un.org/doc/Publication/UNTS/Volume%203007/Part/volume-3007-I-52241.pdf , those so-called “security assurances” are easily seen to be very much intentionally designed as a bunch of empty promises under a nice-sounding headline. By all accounts, the US negotiators were making it very clear to their Ukrainian counterparts that Ukraine was not getting “security guarantees”, which would have meant a commitment on the part of the US to defend the sovereignty of Ukraine. But even without offering “security guarantees”, it surely would have been possible for the US to promise something of substance under the “security assurances” heading.
The lack of security assurances with real substance doesn’t make the failure of Obama and other US governments to act in full accordance to their capabilities and moral responsibility any less shameful. It just shows that the failure of the US to do so hasn’t started with Obama. In fact I would say that this, together with undue deference to Russia, has been a fixture of US policy towards Ukraine since the Soviet Union started disintegrating in the late 1980s. That said, Trump 2.0 is IMO still something else, far worse than any other US government since 1789.
I am in full agreement with this analysis but what's missing is important.
I would say the Putin appeasement/coddling goes back to Bush, but that's a quibble.
It's important to state that until about 5 minutes ago most of Europe has enabled and apologized for Putin worse than the U.S. Most of Europe was weaker than Biden.
OK, we are where we are. Trump is fully on board with Putin's subjugation of Ukraine and Europe broadly. I am a maximum cheerleader for European strength and independence. But keep in mind that most of the American population is pro-Ukraine & Europe-friendly. Almost all European states today are fighting off far-right, pro-Putin parties. IN the long run Europe and the U.S. will come back together. "Long" is looking like a decade, but who knows.
The Dems, my party, have a crisis with no solution: how do you project power without pissing off the huge swath of progressives - and a significant portion of liberals - who are full on kumbaya?
I started understanding the issue when Putin stole Crimea, knowing Obama would do nothing. As I said to a GOP friend at the time, Putin's cynicism is palpable. The Democratic weakness may well have continued under Harris, but it would sure be good to know one way or the other.
I won't bother going into the fascist party's massively bigger problem.
As you point out so well, democrats don't have the solutions either. America doesn't any more have what it takes to lead the free world. What comes next is worrying. WWIII is brewing. China will probably define the world order.
Mostly nonvote. They'll either vote Dem or decide they're all the same and just stay home. The fascist Right has done a masterful job killing hope for half the nation (meaning, TACO Don supporters and the disaffected side-liners).
We may be at an Empirical tipping point, yes. The American empire may be rapidly ebbing under The Republican administration, as they hand it over to the European Union, to such a degree that in the next decade or so we will become something like Russia immediately after the Cold War. We will be looked at third after China and Europe. That of course would mean that the EU would continue as a bloc. If that unity frays it could be an individual European nation that ascends to that spot. Or someone altogether unexpected.
The G7 vote is very important. I want Europe to press. I want US to refuse to sign it. If the Trump admin is smart they will sign it, if they are not, we are going to witness the first pivot. I will be more than happy if this moves forward without the United States. It will be good for the world and one day it will be good for the US as well.
That 4th sentence is tough reading: the dna of the admin is greed, religious zealotry, paranoia, delusion, pettiness, idolatry, lies, back stabbing, and cognitive rot.
"We the People" I can believe in to make the world safe for the long term.
Fear of a Post-Putin Russia: It’s a legitimate and deeply rooted concern. Russia is a state with vast natural resources and one of the world’s largest nuclear arsenals. Now imagine Putin being replaced by someone like Yevgeny Prigozhin—the warlord who once mailed a blood-stained sledgehammer to the European Parliament and embraced Stalin-style human wave tactics with pride. For all his faults, Putin is seen in some circles—particularly in Washington—as a "known devil," someone whose moves can be anticipated and, to some extent, managed. A successor could be far more erratic, or far more brutal.
The China Factor: If Russia fractures, China will move. That’s not a possibility—it’s a near certainty. With resource-rich territories suddenly up for grabs or influence, Beijing would have every incentive to step in. And the Pentagon knows it. The real danger isn’t just Chinese expansion—it’s the unpredictability of what comes next. And in military strategy, nothing unnerves planners more than chaos and the unknown.
This concerns me a lot. Could this be the Russian Protection Plan Trump has in mind? War with Iran, so in retaliation Iran strikes Saudi Arabia oil fields, which immediately sends the cost of oil soaring?
From Malcom Nance:
"One thing is for certain. If this attack is carried out the entire Middle East will be set on fire. Iran has very limited options to strike the United States, but it can strike America’s closest Arab ally, Saudi Arabia. Over the past two decades, Iran has managed to disable the entire Saudi oil industry through cyber attacks, and ballistic missile attacks from Yemen. However, the States would have to be prepared for Iran to launch thousands of men across the Arabian golf, who would likely seize and destroy Saudi Arabia’s eastern oil fields. The Iranians would also shut the narrow waterway between Iran and Oman, thus stopping all fuel trade from the gulf. It would have an immediate and devastating impact on oil prices all around the world. Quite possibly topping the $150 a barrel mark. Worse, is that the Iranian people who have been desperate to break off the chains of the regime and embrace democracy would likely see an American Israeli attack as a provocation. At attack would rally around the regime and set back a decades work fostering democracy."
No. The Iran issue is completely different. They are inching towards nukes and it has to be stopped. I also dont think middle east will become a war zone because of this because Saudi Arabia will be in full support of stopping Iran from getting its nukes. I will write about it soon. Let it develop. I am collecting data.
I am waiting to read the comments for this substack. I know more than a few people who start to read it will then click away when they get offended by some truths that are unfortunately just that… truths. I don’t like it either. It is sad and it is painful. How I wish those ugly truths were not intertwined in our present reality.
I am hoping that folks will read through the entire article. Yes, pick those points you might take an issue with, and pick those points you agree with. Just read it.
It is ok. The ones who read will understand. And I am always there if they have questions.
Perhaps it is just the people that surround me-the friends and family that I have. Love and care for them dearly, yet we are not often on the same page.
Obama was weak on foreign policy, despite having Biden as VP. By the time he became President, Biden had to claw his way back from Covid and the maga insurrection. It was a tough time for the world, and Russia invading Ukraine with brutality called for stronger measures. Zelenskyy repeatedly asked for more, and we yelled at the tv “send more! Send it all!” So yes it is a hard read to look back at good presidents and see their faults. But now- our officials are picked for their allegiance to a Russian asset, and we are holding our Constitution together with scotch tape and spit. Anything is possible. We’ll see where we are after Saturday’s marches, whether we can infuse Congress with a spine.
I wouldn't hold your breath waiting for Congress to grow a spine, Bev
Biden failed the foreign affairs test even as he aced it on domestic policy. Biden may have been the warrior voice as VP, but he showed his true bent as prez.
obqama and biden had a very weak defence secetary, namely joke sullivan
Jake was there. Obama and Biden. He would have sneaked his way in had Harrris got elected.
There is a lot of truth here, unfortunately. Obama's failure in Syria didn't look as impactful, then, as it does now. His attempt to focus American foreign policy on the Pacific and relegate Europe and the MIddle East to secondary status proved to be myopic. Biden's decision to "balance" aid to Ukraine has proved to be incredibly short-sighted. Trump has been...predictable.
The fact of the matter is that the US created "world order" was beginning to show signs of aging and "cracks" were beginning to appear for some time. Eighty years of stability is a long time in this world of multi-power geopolitics. Consequently, thanks to Trump's "nail in the coffin" of US hegemony, the US has lost its role as the "leader of the free world" (an amazing amount of hubris reflected in this statement, along with American "exceptionalism"). Regardless of "what or who" comes next, the US is unlikely to regain that lofty status...not even in North America, if Mark Carney can succeed in making "Canada Great".
As for China (now undergoing a calibrated change of leadership as Xi Jinping has been ousted as leader, with a return to Central Committee rule), their control of 67% of rare earth minerals can and will be challenged by Canada*. So the US's mafia-like imposed agreement to access Ukraine's mineral resources will, ultimately, be less impactful. (In any case, that "agreement" has so many possible "opt-outs" that it's unlikely to see fruition).
With Xi Jinping out of power, Putin barely hanging on to power, Trump trying to take power and Israel becoming the main power in the Middle East we are in for turbulent times...and a grand opportunity for free world democracies led by Europe...or Canada...to re-establish a new "world order".
"Interesting Times", indeed.
*(https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Canada-Looks-to-Challenge-Chinas-Rare-Earth-Dominance.html)
Everything that is happening today is because of what happened in Syria and how US and Germany made a fucking mess out of it. Obama and Merkel --- that is how we got here. Now we have to dig our way out.
I find nothing from our lord Google indicating a change in status for Xi Jinping. Source?
Valid question, I should have sourced it. Here:
"What Happens as Xi Jinping Phases Out?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Am6ZYYSmevM&t=802s
Thanks, Stephen. I was unaware of this. I asked Perplexity
https://www.perplexity.ai/search/has-xi-jinping-lost-power-Z7fhcPNeRWaFG94pGH76Yg
I think the Russian protection plan goes back further than Obama. Basically, all the way back to the early 20th century. It is a manifestation of the Monroe Doctrine with the primary aim to weaken and control Europe.
I'm not sure that the US can rescue Russia this time. If the US pushes Ukraine to hard, Ukraine will turn to China. Europe has already discarded US. Witness the recent sanctioning of Israeli politicians. US can huff and puff and do what ever but largely what use to work has stopped working.
Agree. The protection ship has sailed, but Europe needs to prepare for the last flex from the United States. They are going to try to save Putin.
The problem I see is that they seem to have so little flex left. Netanyahu just outright ignored Trump with Iran.
I doubt this. He knew this is going to happen. That is why the 20k missile reroute.
After telling Netanyahu for months not to attack Iran? Trump wants a deal, any deal as he has failed to achieve anything. US probably was told about it but not before they couldn't stop it. US acquiesced because they had no choice not because they agreed.
Netanyahu is carrying TACO Don's jockstrap. Even so, Israel had clear intelligence that Iran - a nation that not only stated over and over their goal to rid the planet if Israel - was reaching the capability of producing ten devices in a short time.
The action thus far has been surprisingly successful, targeting both Natanz nuclear facility and it's senior military leadership. Also surprisingly, Israel pulled a Spider's Web with locally planted drones joining the attack.
China has dropped anchor deep into the global mineral supply chain.
This is because processing rate earth minerals is either environmentally filthy but dirt cheap, or environmentally responsible but prohibitively expensive versus Chinese refusal to protect her land and people.
Even if Ukraine starts to mine the minerals, they'll have to choose to compete with China in the race to the environmental bottom, or ship raw ore to China.
The clear solution is to rid our supply chain of rare earth's by reengineering batteries and motors.
I’m trying to learn more about public policy and I love reading your work, Shankar. Can you please help me understand what the U.S.’s motivation is in protecting Putin? Thank you!
It will be a long answer. Can I respond tmrw? I am not of much use when I am on the phone. And right now that is all I have.
I am also very much looking forward to your answer to that question!
Answered above.
Fear of a Post-Putin Russia: It’s a legitimate and deeply rooted concern. Russia is a state with vast natural resources and one of the world’s largest nuclear arsenals. Now imagine Putin being replaced by someone like Yevgeny Prigozhin—the warlord who once mailed a blood-stained sledgehammer to the European Parliament and embraced Stalin-style human wave tactics with pride. For all his faults, Putin is seen in some circles—particularly in Washington—as a "known devil," someone whose moves can be anticipated and, to some extent, managed. A successor could be far more erratic, or far more brutal.
The China Factor: If Russia fractures, China will move. That’s not a possibility—it’s a near certainty. With resource-rich territories suddenly up for grabs or influence, Beijing would have every incentive to step in. And the Pentagon knows it. The real danger isn’t just Chinese expansion—it’s the unpredictability of what comes next. And in military strategy, nothing unnerves planners more than chaos and the unknown.
Thank you for your informative answer!
So all in all it's fear of the unknown. I have seen people and organizations go to great lengths securing a bad outcome out of fear for an uncertain one. This way China wins anyway, playing Russia against the West and weakening both just waiting for the cherries to be ripe to pick.
“But when was the last time Obama was held accountable for violating the Budapest Memorandum — the security guarantees the U.S. gave Ukraine in exchange for giving up its nuclear arsenal? The United States made a promise. And it betrayed it.”
If you read the actual text of the 1994 Budapest Memorandum https://treaties.un.org/doc/Publication/UNTS/Volume%203007/Part/volume-3007-I-52241.pdf , those so-called “security assurances” are easily seen to be very much intentionally designed as a bunch of empty promises under a nice-sounding headline. By all accounts, the US negotiators were making it very clear to their Ukrainian counterparts that Ukraine was not getting “security guarantees”, which would have meant a commitment on the part of the US to defend the sovereignty of Ukraine. But even without offering “security guarantees”, it surely would have been possible for the US to promise something of substance under the “security assurances” heading.
The lack of security assurances with real substance doesn’t make the failure of Obama and other US governments to act in full accordance to their capabilities and moral responsibility any less shameful. It just shows that the failure of the US to do so hasn’t started with Obama. In fact I would say that this, together with undue deference to Russia, has been a fixture of US policy towards Ukraine since the Soviet Union started disintegrating in the late 1980s. That said, Trump 2.0 is IMO still something else, far worse than any other US government since 1789.
what is it with american adminastrations bowing their heads to putin, they have lost the bakbone, the taco guy is exceptionally lily livered
I am in full agreement with this analysis but what's missing is important.
I would say the Putin appeasement/coddling goes back to Bush, but that's a quibble.
It's important to state that until about 5 minutes ago most of Europe has enabled and apologized for Putin worse than the U.S. Most of Europe was weaker than Biden.
OK, we are where we are. Trump is fully on board with Putin's subjugation of Ukraine and Europe broadly. I am a maximum cheerleader for European strength and independence. But keep in mind that most of the American population is pro-Ukraine & Europe-friendly. Almost all European states today are fighting off far-right, pro-Putin parties. IN the long run Europe and the U.S. will come back together. "Long" is looking like a decade, but who knows.
The Dems, my party, have a crisis with no solution: how do you project power without pissing off the huge swath of progressives - and a significant portion of liberals - who are full on kumbaya?
I started understanding the issue when Putin stole Crimea, knowing Obama would do nothing. As I said to a GOP friend at the time, Putin's cynicism is palpable. The Democratic weakness may well have continued under Harris, but it would sure be good to know one way or the other.
I won't bother going into the fascist party's massively bigger problem.
As you point out so well, democrats don't have the solutions either. America doesn't any more have what it takes to lead the free world. What comes next is worrying. WWIII is brewing. China will probably define the world order.
... the marginal swing vote ...
Mostly nonvote. They'll either vote Dem or decide they're all the same and just stay home. The fascist Right has done a masterful job killing hope for half the nation (meaning, TACO Don supporters and the disaffected side-liners).
We may be at an Empirical tipping point, yes. The American empire may be rapidly ebbing under The Republican administration, as they hand it over to the European Union, to such a degree that in the next decade or so we will become something like Russia immediately after the Cold War. We will be looked at third after China and Europe. That of course would mean that the EU would continue as a bloc. If that unity frays it could be an individual European nation that ascends to that spot. Or someone altogether unexpected.
The G7 vote is very important. I want Europe to press. I want US to refuse to sign it. If the Trump admin is smart they will sign it, if they are not, we are going to witness the first pivot. I will be more than happy if this moves forward without the United States. It will be good for the world and one day it will be good for the US as well.
That 4th sentence is tough reading: the dna of the admin is greed, religious zealotry, paranoia, delusion, pettiness, idolatry, lies, back stabbing, and cognitive rot.
"We the People" I can believe in to make the world safe for the long term.
Shankar! Yes!
The “Putin Protection Plan,” built by cowards who listened to cowards…to protect a Bully!
Thanks Shankar. What in your mind was the benefit for Obama/Biden to protecting Putin?
Will answer tmrw.
Fear of a Post-Putin Russia: It’s a legitimate and deeply rooted concern. Russia is a state with vast natural resources and one of the world’s largest nuclear arsenals. Now imagine Putin being replaced by someone like Yevgeny Prigozhin—the warlord who once mailed a blood-stained sledgehammer to the European Parliament and embraced Stalin-style human wave tactics with pride. For all his faults, Putin is seen in some circles—particularly in Washington—as a "known devil," someone whose moves can be anticipated and, to some extent, managed. A successor could be far more erratic, or far more brutal.
The China Factor: If Russia fractures, China will move. That’s not a possibility—it’s a near certainty. With resource-rich territories suddenly up for grabs or influence, Beijing would have every incentive to step in. And the Pentagon knows it. The real danger isn’t just Chinese expansion—it’s the unpredictability of what comes next. And in military strategy, nothing unnerves planners more than chaos and the unknown.
This concerns me a lot. Could this be the Russian Protection Plan Trump has in mind? War with Iran, so in retaliation Iran strikes Saudi Arabia oil fields, which immediately sends the cost of oil soaring?
From Malcom Nance:
"One thing is for certain. If this attack is carried out the entire Middle East will be set on fire. Iran has very limited options to strike the United States, but it can strike America’s closest Arab ally, Saudi Arabia. Over the past two decades, Iran has managed to disable the entire Saudi oil industry through cyber attacks, and ballistic missile attacks from Yemen. However, the States would have to be prepared for Iran to launch thousands of men across the Arabian golf, who would likely seize and destroy Saudi Arabia’s eastern oil fields. The Iranians would also shut the narrow waterway between Iran and Oman, thus stopping all fuel trade from the gulf. It would have an immediate and devastating impact on oil prices all around the world. Quite possibly topping the $150 a barrel mark. Worse, is that the Iranian people who have been desperate to break off the chains of the regime and embrace democracy would likely see an American Israeli attack as a provocation. At attack would rally around the regime and set back a decades work fostering democracy."
https://open.substack.com/pub/malcolmnance/p/a-war-is-coming-where-will-the-blow?utm_source=share&utm_medium=android&r=59s6x5
No. The Iran issue is completely different. They are inching towards nukes and it has to be stopped. I also dont think middle east will become a war zone because of this because Saudi Arabia will be in full support of stopping Iran from getting its nukes. I will write about it soon. Let it develop. I am collecting data.
Thank you, thank you Shankar!
True. Definitely something to put in the pipe!
You should add that Trump might eventually revive plans to build a hotel in Russia.
That's what he has wanted all along ,Joel. That's what he means when he talks about getting back to business with Russia