The Next U.S.–Ukraine Breakdown Is Already Underway

Zelensky’s $50 Billion Offer—and Trump’s Silence

Can an anti-democratic movement work closely with the world’s bravest democratic resistance? Reflexively, the answer is no. Of course not. But in the world of politics, anything is possible.

Macron and Scholz can loathe each other behind closed doors but still stand shoulder-to-shoulder announcing billion-euro projects. Erdogan can strike a deal with Moscow before lunch and spend his evening plotting ways to destabilize Putin’s pet project next door.

Unnatural alliances. Enemies cooperating. Nothing is off the table.

It’s a sick world—but even in a sick world, a basic level of competence is required. And if we’re judging by how U.S. stock and bond markets are responding to Trump’s policies, there’s no mistaking the signal: incompetence is back, and the markets are already adjusting to it.

If that’s the case with the economy, can foreign policy and national security be far behind? Sadly, yes—they’re lagging even further.

• Did Putin agree to Trump’s ceasefire proposal? No.

• Did Trump call him out after a missile strike on Sumy? No. He covered for him—again.

What is Putin seeing from Team Trump? He sees an administration that treats Zelensky, Ukraine, and Europe as expendable—trading partners worth hundreds of billions of dollars—while treating the Kremlin, a nation with barely a sliver of trade, with reverence.

That isn’t diplomacy. That’s incompetence screaming into the void. And Putin? He’s watching. Calculating. Probably telling his advisors: "One more month. Just one more month. Trump will deliver Ukraine—just like we always thought he might."

President Zelensky tried to block this emerging Kremlin–Team Trump alignment by offering something the U.S. couldn’t easily ignore: a minerals deal. The idea was simple—bind Ukraine’s future to America’s economic interests. Get U.S. companies on the ground, tied to lithium and rare earth extraction, and you pull them away from the Kremlin’s orbit.

It almost worked. On paper, it even looked strategic. Some in Brussels probably nodded in agreement. But that cover got blown wide open.

Trump’s team is now weaponizing the proposal—not to protect Ukraine, but to undermine it. The minerals pitch has been flipped into a political wedge—and a way to shove Zelensky out.

And then, on April 9, the next card dropped. Ukraine is ready to pay up to $50 billion for future U.S. military aid, Zelensky told reporters.

“We handed over to the American side a large package that we want to buy. To buy in one form or another,” Zelensky said. “Many different formats and tools that we are ready for. We were ready to find both $30 billion and $50 billion for a suitable package.”

Air defense systems. Ammunition. Guarantees. It’s all on the table. Ukraine isn’t on its knees—it’s putting money on the table, writing a check for its own survival.

“There is an agreement, we are giving money,” Zelensky continued. “Accordingly, (if) you want (we can pay) either to this [Reconstruction Investment] Fund, or to you [the U.S.] directly. It makes no difference to us.”

That’s not just a military transaction. It’s a final bid to keep Ukraine alive in a geopolitical world spiraling into deals with devils. Zelensky isn’t even asking Trump to send aid. He’s saying: let us pay. With the minerals deal as the foundation, just allow Ukraine to purchase weapons. That’s it.

If America is truly a neutral broker—if it genuinely wants to stop the war—why on earth would it say no to that? But that’s exactly what Donald Trump is signaling. He doesn’t want to send aid. He doesn’t even want to let Ukraine buy weapons from the United States.

And there it is. Exposed.

The minerals deal Trump’s team keeps pushing isn’t about partnership. It isn’t a security guarantee. It’s a ruse—part of a broader plan to reduce Ukraine to a rump state, trapped between Russia’s military aggression and Europe’s democratic backbone.

Trump doesn’t want Ukraine armed. He wants it disarmed. He wants it vulnerable—so he can trade it away like a bargaining chip. And if that’s the position of his administration, then why should Ukraine sign any minerals deal with the United States at all?

It makes no sense. It’s time to walk away.

There’s still some aid cleared under Biden that hasn’t been delivered yet—but that stockpile is shrinking by the day. Trump isn’t going to replenish it. He’s not going to send more aid. He won’t even let Ukraine pay to protect itself.

The only leverage America has left now is its intelligence network—and its control over weapons systems still operating on Ukrainian soil.

It’s been nearly 45 days since the Trump team froze all forms of support to Ukraine—before half-heartedly restarting it under pressure. We don’t yet know how much patchwork Europe has managed to do in the meantime. But at this point, it no longer matters.

It’s time to move forward by leaving the United States behind. Continuing to depend on Washington makes less sense by the day. The risks of not having U.S. support are now smaller than the risks of relying on it.

The time has come to let go.

• Take the hit.

• Endure the cost.

• And fight for a full win.

Yes, it will be brutal. Yes, it will be costly. But that pain is worth it—because it’s the only path left that leads to sovereignty. Ukraine should hold its nerve. Wait for the coalition government in Germany to form. When that happens, go straight to the chancellor. I think he’s already preparing for this shift—silently, cautiously, but seriously.

And if he says yes? Then it’s time. Time for Ukraine to stand up and say, “No thanks, America.”

You had your chance. You made your choice.

Now we’ll make ours.