“Make no mistake: there are plenty of actors who want to protect the Putin regime — China, Iran, North Korea, segments within India, billionaire GOP donors who want Putin to break the European Union so they can plunder its consumer market, factions inside the Pentagon, and even elements within Europe itself….Have they given up on trying to pull Trump closer to Putin? No. We just saw what they did — two days ago.”
Seriously, you think it’s Trump inner circle that is convincing him to abandon Ukraine? And Trump on his own would be on the fence in regard to the subject, Shankar?
This sounds extremely naive. Trump doesn’t need any help. May I remind you that whether Trump will admit it or not, Russia helped Trump secure both the 2020 election, as well as 2024. Trump also visited Russia for the first time in 1987, and quickly adopted the Soviet Union talking points.
And let’s not forget that it was Russia who financed all of Trump’s Golf Resorts, Hotels and and Branded Condominiums (Russian’s bought the units) after ALL BANKS stop lending him money after he almost went bankrupt in 1991; banks put him on an allowance so they wouldn’t have to put his assets (Real Estate) in receivership as a condition of bankruptcy.
Additionally, it was Russia which made all of Trump’s connections with Hungary to give him the Project 2025 playbook which he is currently unleashing on the American people.
And lastly, who could forget his “Perfect” call with Zelenskyy, in which he asked for Zelenskyy to start an investigation into Biden and Hunter to sully the election. Don’t you recall all of Giuliani’s shenanigans in Ukraine while Trump was still president? It led to the Zelenskyy’s humiliation in the Whitehouse. And if we’ve learned one thing about Trump; he doesn’t forget or forgive even the slightest of sleights!
Bottom line, Trump needs no guidance or advice when it comes to Russia. In fact, I have no doubt the current policies reflect his true intentions which is the reason you have people like Colby and Witkoff in positions of power, and running the Russia Desk in the first place.
Additionally, Isn’t this also the reason why our intelligence agencies cannot defend against Russian cyber threats or aggression (Trump’s Russia policy’s)? After all, isn’t Trump the same guy who took Putin’s side at Helsinki; undermining our own intelligence agencies and National Security interests?
So honestly Shankar, please educate us on how you’re drawing conclusions that Trump is being pushed into supporting Putin’s agenda in Ukraine, because from my perspective, Trump is in Putin’s court, and he’s just playing along; as not to show his true colors, or where his allegiance truly lies! IMHO!
This wasn’t the article I was preparing yesterday. It was this: Colby May Defeat Trump in the Midterms.
Yep. I have a very different theory on national security and how much importance Americans assign to it. Almost a year before the November elections, I wrote that if the war continues as Americans go to vote next year, Biden and the Democrats are more likely to lose than win. Case in point: when did Biden’s approval rating first turn negative? Two days after the Afghanistan withdrawal. Americans like the word “win.”
If Trump aligns with Putin and Putin loses, there is a near 100% chance the GOP will face a wipeout in the midterms. It’s almost guaranteed.
Trump doesn’t care about Putin. Trump doesn’t care about Zelensky. Heck, I don’t think he cares about anyone but himself. He understands the aura of winnability.
Last month, during Senate testimony, Lt. Gen. Alexus G. Grynkewich, Commander of U.S. European Command and Supreme Allied Commander Europe, said that Ukraine may win the war. One month before that, at the end of May, for the first time in years, I wrote that Ukraine now has a clear path to victory.
Just look at the end of the title: The Ukraine War Just Entered Its Final Phase — And Trump Might Flip.
Now, if you’re part of the pro-Putin faction, what would you do? You’d block that path. That’s what happened yesterday. This is still not over. The pro-Putin faction is too powerful to dismiss. But with each day that the odds of Putin’s loss improve, Trump will keep moving toward Ukraine. He’s selfish. He’ll try to join the winner.
If Putin asked him, he’d probably quote that famous Hollywood line: “Nothing personal”
This makes sense. And with TACO’s memory deteriorating, he will be more prone to switching sides. The conversation with holding cards is forgotten.
Europe needs to fund Ukraine. Ukraine needs to win against Russia. What is considered Ukraine winning in your opinion, Shankar? I would say robust defense minimizing civilian death, destroying high value targets within Russia, and bringing Russia’s economy to crash and burn status.
If TACO wants to join the Ukrainian side to muddle the midterm picture, go for it.
You are right, Biden made two huge mistakes. He should have ignored the Afghanistan withdrawal and negotiated his own, and funded Ukraine fully so the American people “won.” How shallow a people we are.
“If Trump aligns with Putin and Putin loses, there is a near 100% chance the GOP will face a wipeout in the midterms. It’s almost guaranteed….Trump doesn’t care about Putin. Trump doesn’t care about Zelensky. Heck, I don’t think he cares about anyone but himself. He understands the aura of winnability.”
Shankar, you’re missing my point. It doesn’t matter whether Trump cares about Putin, it’s whether Trump owes Putin, or Putin has Kompromat on Trump; none of this has been proven or disproven at this point. Therefore, we both have no idea what motivates Trump.
And as for the midterms? Trump doesn’t care about that. He believes all incumbents lose the midterms, and anyway, he’ll have appointed more than half the entire federal judiciary by the time the midterms are over. Therefore, he can continue to rule by judicial fiat. It’s not like SCOTUS is reeling him in, or bringing him to heel. In fact, the opposite is true; they are enablers who believe in his vision.
Not to mention, we have no idea if there will be elections (manufactured crisis), or if they’ll be free and fair. It’s not like he hasn’t tried to steal an election in the past: fake electors, J6th, illegally accessing election machines, or his infamous call to Raffensperger; “can you just find me 11,700 votes!”
And if he tried to steal the midterms, who is going to stop him? It’s not like we have a non-partisan FBI or DOJ that Trump doesn’t control outright, so who do you expect to police the elections? It’s a rhetorical question, no need to answer!
Additionally, Trump always says all the right things; “I want to end this war”; however, his actions say otherwise. He’s playing to the crowd and to the MSM. Show me any actual policy decisions that have favored Ukraine since Trump was elected, or policy decisions to end this war. If he did, he wouldn’t have stopped shipments of arms to Ukraine, or lifted sanctions on Russian Bank, so Russia can now borrow money to keep this war going.
Seriously, if he were in Putin’s pocket, you think he’s just going to announce it, or he’d do exactly what’s he doing? Delay sending arms, claim our own stockpiles have been depleted, and refuse to give Ukraine a timeline as to when the shipments will be forthcoming.
Moreover, we had depleted stockpiles of Patriots last year, yet we continued to send Patriots, ammunition and missiles to Israel; non-stop! How is this different than in Ukraine.
And as to your point about Trump siding with the winner, I agree, in most instances like the Israeli/Iranian issue he wants to be seen as the omnipresent leader who only wins. Yet, Russia is losing, and instead of reading the room, Trump has doubled down without saying so.
Furthermore, when it comes to Putin there are extenuating circumstances that impact Trump’s decisions. And unfortunately, neither of us are clairvoyant, so we both have no idea what goes on in the mind of a narcissistic, petulant five year old, wannabe king; it’s a mystery to me…:)
And as you’ve pointed out time and time again, Trump draws a line in the sand, and then moves it; especially when it comes to Putin. If Trump truly wants to be on the winning side or on the righteous side, he would have abandoned Putin already; yet here we are! Trump even still refuses to admit that Putin started the war.
Bottom line, he is doing his damndest to help keep Putin in this game. I don’t know if you’ve read it, but North Korea just sent another 35,000 troops to Ukraine’s front line. if there ever was a time to support Zelenskyy, it is now.
I do, however, understand your point about there being two factions in the Pentagon and State Department standing firm on both sides of the issue; However, just like the fiscal hawks in Congress, they will collapse faster than a cheap lounge chair.
Additionally, I realize this is your expertise, and you may be right, however, it is naive to believe that it’s the two factions helping Trump to decide Ukraine’s fate, since all evidence points to Trump being well versed on an issue for once. After all, what other foreign leader meets with Trump without an American interpreter in the room, and no notes are taken to give to his National Security Team so they can implement whatever policies they agree upon.
Lastly, I’d posit that in the meeting they focused on ways in which Trump can consolidate power in America, as much as they discuss the Ukrainian War; I mean “military exercise!”
Make no mistake, from my vantage point, Putin, Orban, Heritage and many other conservative elements of MAGA are in cohoots with this administration.
Therefore, you can call me delusional or a conspiracy theorist if you like (I am not).
Bottom line, Trump has laid waste to all our institutions in record time. He conducting domestic politics in the same fashion that helped consolidate Orban’s rise and expansion of executive power: This is not in dispute!
So I ask you, why as an analyst do you discount what is happening all around us, and just like the MSM; either given Trump and MAGA the benefit of the doubt, or are diminishing the authoritarian coup that is happening before our eyes? And yes, it’s all interconnected.
Seriously, when was the last time you saw masked government agents and contractors picking up people off the streets in a burgeoning democracy? Or deploy a National Guard unit (requested by the Trump Administration) whose mission is to fight fire fires. Or use the military domestically for specious reasons? This was a deliberate act to undermine California’s ability to defend itself from Natural Disasters, as evidenced by the fact that the administration acknowledged that these troops weren’t essential to its so-called mission.
Furthermore, this adds credence to the fact that this entire undertaking has been a massive waste of resources, and only undertaken so Trump can bring Newsom and California to heel.
My point, You’re viewing this from a very narrow perspective, and are failing to see the big picture here. This isn’t just about Ukraine policy, it’s an entire paradigm shift for US allies and international relations; it’s just not working out as both Putin and Trump have planned: YET!
Bottom line, authoritarian fascist regimes don’t play nice with democratic regimes; their goal is to undermine them. And if you look deeply at the tariffs, it’s about undermining our allies. IMHO….:)
Have to agree w/Mr. Jaffee, as is my want in most circumstances. I believe the long game, if Trump even has one, (though certainly Miller, Vought, Theil, Vance, et al have a long game) it is based on the idea of divvying up the globe for spheres of control from which they can plunder. Can’t believe he will ever get over his personal grievance against Zelenskyy for refusing to trade arms for an investigation. Also believe deep in my heart that Putin holds some form of komprimat over Trump, be it financial, salacious or something else entirely. Is there one ounce of concern for the plight of blameless Ukrainian civilians being bombed to death in the middle of the night? Not in the DNA of our Dear Leader. It means less than nothing to him. But the larger point from my lazy-we’re the only ones that matter- American perspective is the deliverance today of a FIFTEEN FOLD increase in a budget for apprehension and detention of ‘enemies of the State’ by the regime. What we have witnessed over the past two weeks in Los Angeles will soon be replicated in San Jose, San Francisco, Portland, Seattle, Phoenix, Las Vegas, Chicago, New York, Philadelphia, Boston, Baltimore, DC, and Atlanta- all at the same time and all the time. He has just been gifted his very own SS at the expense of some nice tax breaks and the betrayal of ten nor twenty million less fortunate subjects of his regime. It wont take long, in the minds of these traitors, for the American people to get used to never ending waves of disappearances, with the number of people affected gradually widening from immigrants to an enemies the Dear Leader has identified for disappearance, detention, deportation, “un-personing”. The same process is occurring in Mexico with enshrining the National Guard into fully becoming an arm of the president as opposed to a Federal Force. The times are dark and getting darker every day. Oh, and Happy Independence Day From A proud American Veteran.
Perhaps you could read or have read Defying Hitler by Sebastian Hafner. Good book. Also what did Chinese foreign minister Wang do yesterday?
Can't see Middle Kingdom letting Putin lose( natural resources, help in Africa, anarchy etc etc.) and this all will surely allow Chin release tiger diplomacy on EU as they move the tribute empire further to surround and box in disUSA.
Trump is a useful idiot no more and as regards P2025 what makes you think there will be any midtetm elections anway?
Trump has been intimately tied to the Russians for years, beginning with money laundering of Russian oligarchs and mafia funds in his hotels and real estate deals. Years ago (1984) the Financial Times published an expose on Russian money laundering that tied Trump to a notorious Russian mobster at Trump Tower. There have been numerous stories detailing the increasing connections between Trump and Russia. Trump is "owned" by the KGB/FSB and Putin and has been for many years. The incredible thing is the fact that Trump has managed to deflect all these well-documented exposes and rise the presidency!
Here's a story from December , 2017...after his first election...that lays out the deep involvement of Russia in his election and the methods used. The same methods were used in the the 2024 election with increased use of Russian bots and hacking. So Trump is totally owned by Putin and the only difference now is that he is so far gone into dementia that he sometimes thinks he has the upper hand. It explains his "on again, off again" ramblings about his relationship with Putin. In fact, it's the realization, by Putin, that Trump is now "non compos mentis" that allows him to ignore him publicly.
Exactly. There’s a reason most US and European countries refuse to do business with Russia (outside of oil and gas); they have no “rule of law” outside of it being 100% corrupt! And sadly, we’re starting to come in a close second!….:)
Shankar and Robert Jaffe, I admire both of your comments on this complex and intriguing subject. My simplistic view, long held for several years, is that the GOP has for approaching two decades come to the understanding that the criminal mob oriented, kleptocratic, oligarchic, autocracy run by Putin in Russia is the model of governance they are determined to implement here in the United States.
Couple that with the fact that Tr*^p is thoroughly owned by Putin via a long history of kompromat and Russian enrichment reinforced by a significant swath of the GOP (and some number of the democrat) congressional delegation and no small cadre of administration officials who have been compromised by Russian kompromat, financial largess or both. This has made for a powerful pro-Putin force in this country that has now achieved critical mass with the capability to destroy the one key force in the world capable of countering Russia’s evil global objectives. That is where we find ourselves today.
This current trajectory is already well on track for the destruction of the US as a global counter valence to the Russian menace. If it continues unchecked there is a very high likelihood that we will eventually see Russia and the US ally themselves to shake down the remaining free democracies around the world to hand over control of their global resources to the oligarchs class. At that point “The Borg” will have been born and the aggressive destruction of the rest of the planet will have commenced.
And do not forget the Middle Kingdom's desire to take over disUSA role and control it maybe in a slightly different way to the way they now control Rus but as the tribute empire grows leaving the Ming version way far behind and Chin now start their advance on the EU now disUSA has abandoned NATO in real terms. The real contest is shaping up with disUSA polity and power dissolved in shreds with P2025 vying with the Middle Kingdom to achieve their differing objectives with the useful idiot kompromat King dangling between Thiel et al and Xi spun around at will dizzied by Xi's little helper Putin.
How is the Smart election machine interference case progressing and how are the Middle Kingdom agents doing with their Korean and Rus IRA friends in any attempts they may be engaged in to put in a few software/ firmware changes?
Happy, or at least not-just-this-side-of-godawful 4th, Shankar. And know what? Inside, behind, and leading the pro-Putinites in the US Congress is the cabal of those techbros and other billionaires, full stop. Who else has as much motive and money, besides being total psychopaths? Just saying.
Many of the Heritage Foundation ghouls have long been putin-philic - "Christian values, protecting traditional families," bulwark against decadent liberal democracies, and all of that.
Not to mention they probably got a gander at that bejeweled Rolex Putin gave to the Patriarch of the Russian Orthodox Church. Jesus and Ill-Begotten Gains. Nice.
Sure, but Pat Buchanan, Dana Rohrbacher, and a chunk of US "Christian" politicians have been russia-envious for 25 years - before the Russian Orthodox Church was so obviously another of the Kremlin.
Yes, the usual D.C. "power games" continue, exacerbated by totally incompetent "leadership" in the White House. Delaying or diverting needed war-fighting materials from Ukraine has become the "game of the week" for some of these self-important bureaucrats...BUT...there is an underlying concern over the depletion of missile stocks in the US inventory. Mike Fredenburg wrote a very interesting article back in November, 2024 relating to this and I have no doubts that the situation has become even more concernoing since then. Here it is and worth a read:
The isolationist Quincy Institute, with Mearsheimer and Wilkerson, saw several notable resignations in light of Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine. Cirincione said he "fundamentally" disagrees with Quincy experts who "completely ignore the dangers and the horrors of Russia's invasion and occupation and focus almost exclusively on criticism of the United States, NATO, and Ukraine". Eaton said he resigned because he "supports NATO."
I think this is propaganda from Trump. The Ukraine offered 5 billion dollars for patriots and Trump refused.
The regime is using smoke and mirrors to cover up. If they wanted Ukraine to have the missiles, why were they sent to Poland and not released immediately.?
Why has Trunp been silent on this issue?
Why did he not sent the 40,OOo drones promised to the Ukraine and divert them to the middle east.
Could this be another tactic in trying to break the Ukrainian peoples morale so they will give up and surrender.
This is another poker in the bonfire being lit by Trump.
“Make no mistake: there are plenty of actors who want to protect the Putin regime — China, Iran, North Korea, segments within India, billionaire GOP donors who want Putin to break the European Union so they can plunder its consumer market, factions inside the Pentagon, and even elements within Europe itself….Have they given up on trying to pull Trump closer to Putin? No. We just saw what they did — two days ago.”
Seriously, you think it’s Trump inner circle that is convincing him to abandon Ukraine? And Trump on his own would be on the fence in regard to the subject, Shankar?
This sounds extremely naive. Trump doesn’t need any help. May I remind you that whether Trump will admit it or not, Russia helped Trump secure both the 2020 election, as well as 2024. Trump also visited Russia for the first time in 1987, and quickly adopted the Soviet Union talking points.
And let’s not forget that it was Russia who financed all of Trump’s Golf Resorts, Hotels and and Branded Condominiums (Russian’s bought the units) after ALL BANKS stop lending him money after he almost went bankrupt in 1991; banks put him on an allowance so they wouldn’t have to put his assets (Real Estate) in receivership as a condition of bankruptcy.
Additionally, it was Russia which made all of Trump’s connections with Hungary to give him the Project 2025 playbook which he is currently unleashing on the American people.
And lastly, who could forget his “Perfect” call with Zelenskyy, in which he asked for Zelenskyy to start an investigation into Biden and Hunter to sully the election. Don’t you recall all of Giuliani’s shenanigans in Ukraine while Trump was still president? It led to the Zelenskyy’s humiliation in the Whitehouse. And if we’ve learned one thing about Trump; he doesn’t forget or forgive even the slightest of sleights!
Bottom line, Trump needs no guidance or advice when it comes to Russia. In fact, I have no doubt the current policies reflect his true intentions which is the reason you have people like Colby and Witkoff in positions of power, and running the Russia Desk in the first place.
Additionally, Isn’t this also the reason why our intelligence agencies cannot defend against Russian cyber threats or aggression (Trump’s Russia policy’s)? After all, isn’t Trump the same guy who took Putin’s side at Helsinki; undermining our own intelligence agencies and National Security interests?
So honestly Shankar, please educate us on how you’re drawing conclusions that Trump is being pushed into supporting Putin’s agenda in Ukraine, because from my perspective, Trump is in Putin’s court, and he’s just playing along; as not to show his true colors, or where his allegiance truly lies! IMHO!
Happy 4th everyone; enjoy, and be safe!…:)
Alright. This is going to be a long one.
This wasn’t the article I was preparing yesterday. It was this: Colby May Defeat Trump in the Midterms.
Yep. I have a very different theory on national security and how much importance Americans assign to it. Almost a year before the November elections, I wrote that if the war continues as Americans go to vote next year, Biden and the Democrats are more likely to lose than win. Case in point: when did Biden’s approval rating first turn negative? Two days after the Afghanistan withdrawal. Americans like the word “win.”
If Trump aligns with Putin and Putin loses, there is a near 100% chance the GOP will face a wipeout in the midterms. It’s almost guaranteed.
Trump doesn’t care about Putin. Trump doesn’t care about Zelensky. Heck, I don’t think he cares about anyone but himself. He understands the aura of winnability.
Last month, during Senate testimony, Lt. Gen. Alexus G. Grynkewich, Commander of U.S. European Command and Supreme Allied Commander Europe, said that Ukraine may win the war. One month before that, at the end of May, for the first time in years, I wrote that Ukraine now has a clear path to victory.
The U.S. intelligence assessment has changed. The entire Pentagon would have seen it. Trump would have seen it. That’s why I wrote the following story: https://shankarnarayan.substack.com/p/the-ukraine-war-just-entered-its
Just look at the end of the title: The Ukraine War Just Entered Its Final Phase — And Trump Might Flip.
Now, if you’re part of the pro-Putin faction, what would you do? You’d block that path. That’s what happened yesterday. This is still not over. The pro-Putin faction is too powerful to dismiss. But with each day that the odds of Putin’s loss improve, Trump will keep moving toward Ukraine. He’s selfish. He’ll try to join the winner.
If Putin asked him, he’d probably quote that famous Hollywood line: “Nothing personal”
That’s who he is.
This makes sense. And with TACO’s memory deteriorating, he will be more prone to switching sides. The conversation with holding cards is forgotten.
Europe needs to fund Ukraine. Ukraine needs to win against Russia. What is considered Ukraine winning in your opinion, Shankar? I would say robust defense minimizing civilian death, destroying high value targets within Russia, and bringing Russia’s economy to crash and burn status.
If TACO wants to join the Ukrainian side to muddle the midterm picture, go for it.
You are right, Biden made two huge mistakes. He should have ignored the Afghanistan withdrawal and negotiated his own, and funded Ukraine fully so the American people “won.” How shallow a people we are.
“If Trump aligns with Putin and Putin loses, there is a near 100% chance the GOP will face a wipeout in the midterms. It’s almost guaranteed….Trump doesn’t care about Putin. Trump doesn’t care about Zelensky. Heck, I don’t think he cares about anyone but himself. He understands the aura of winnability.”
Shankar, you’re missing my point. It doesn’t matter whether Trump cares about Putin, it’s whether Trump owes Putin, or Putin has Kompromat on Trump; none of this has been proven or disproven at this point. Therefore, we both have no idea what motivates Trump.
And as for the midterms? Trump doesn’t care about that. He believes all incumbents lose the midterms, and anyway, he’ll have appointed more than half the entire federal judiciary by the time the midterms are over. Therefore, he can continue to rule by judicial fiat. It’s not like SCOTUS is reeling him in, or bringing him to heel. In fact, the opposite is true; they are enablers who believe in his vision.
Not to mention, we have no idea if there will be elections (manufactured crisis), or if they’ll be free and fair. It’s not like he hasn’t tried to steal an election in the past: fake electors, J6th, illegally accessing election machines, or his infamous call to Raffensperger; “can you just find me 11,700 votes!”
And if he tried to steal the midterms, who is going to stop him? It’s not like we have a non-partisan FBI or DOJ that Trump doesn’t control outright, so who do you expect to police the elections? It’s a rhetorical question, no need to answer!
Additionally, Trump always says all the right things; “I want to end this war”; however, his actions say otherwise. He’s playing to the crowd and to the MSM. Show me any actual policy decisions that have favored Ukraine since Trump was elected, or policy decisions to end this war. If he did, he wouldn’t have stopped shipments of arms to Ukraine, or lifted sanctions on Russian Bank, so Russia can now borrow money to keep this war going.
Seriously, if he were in Putin’s pocket, you think he’s just going to announce it, or he’d do exactly what’s he doing? Delay sending arms, claim our own stockpiles have been depleted, and refuse to give Ukraine a timeline as to when the shipments will be forthcoming.
Moreover, we had depleted stockpiles of Patriots last year, yet we continued to send Patriots, ammunition and missiles to Israel; non-stop! How is this different than in Ukraine.
And as to your point about Trump siding with the winner, I agree, in most instances like the Israeli/Iranian issue he wants to be seen as the omnipresent leader who only wins. Yet, Russia is losing, and instead of reading the room, Trump has doubled down without saying so.
Furthermore, when it comes to Putin there are extenuating circumstances that impact Trump’s decisions. And unfortunately, neither of us are clairvoyant, so we both have no idea what goes on in the mind of a narcissistic, petulant five year old, wannabe king; it’s a mystery to me…:)
And as you’ve pointed out time and time again, Trump draws a line in the sand, and then moves it; especially when it comes to Putin. If Trump truly wants to be on the winning side or on the righteous side, he would have abandoned Putin already; yet here we are! Trump even still refuses to admit that Putin started the war.
Bottom line, he is doing his damndest to help keep Putin in this game. I don’t know if you’ve read it, but North Korea just sent another 35,000 troops to Ukraine’s front line. if there ever was a time to support Zelenskyy, it is now.
I do, however, understand your point about there being two factions in the Pentagon and State Department standing firm on both sides of the issue; However, just like the fiscal hawks in Congress, they will collapse faster than a cheap lounge chair.
Additionally, I realize this is your expertise, and you may be right, however, it is naive to believe that it’s the two factions helping Trump to decide Ukraine’s fate, since all evidence points to Trump being well versed on an issue for once. After all, what other foreign leader meets with Trump without an American interpreter in the room, and no notes are taken to give to his National Security Team so they can implement whatever policies they agree upon.
Lastly, I’d posit that in the meeting they focused on ways in which Trump can consolidate power in America, as much as they discuss the Ukrainian War; I mean “military exercise!”
Make no mistake, from my vantage point, Putin, Orban, Heritage and many other conservative elements of MAGA are in cohoots with this administration.
Therefore, you can call me delusional or a conspiracy theorist if you like (I am not).
Bottom line, Trump has laid waste to all our institutions in record time. He conducting domestic politics in the same fashion that helped consolidate Orban’s rise and expansion of executive power: This is not in dispute!
So I ask you, why as an analyst do you discount what is happening all around us, and just like the MSM; either given Trump and MAGA the benefit of the doubt, or are diminishing the authoritarian coup that is happening before our eyes? And yes, it’s all interconnected.
Seriously, when was the last time you saw masked government agents and contractors picking up people off the streets in a burgeoning democracy? Or deploy a National Guard unit (requested by the Trump Administration) whose mission is to fight fire fires. Or use the military domestically for specious reasons? This was a deliberate act to undermine California’s ability to defend itself from Natural Disasters, as evidenced by the fact that the administration acknowledged that these troops weren’t essential to its so-called mission.
Furthermore, this adds credence to the fact that this entire undertaking has been a massive waste of resources, and only undertaken so Trump can bring Newsom and California to heel.
My point, You’re viewing this from a very narrow perspective, and are failing to see the big picture here. This isn’t just about Ukraine policy, it’s an entire paradigm shift for US allies and international relations; it’s just not working out as both Putin and Trump have planned: YET!
Bottom line, authoritarian fascist regimes don’t play nice with democratic regimes; their goal is to undermine them. And if you look deeply at the tariffs, it’s about undermining our allies. IMHO….:)
Understood....
Have to agree w/Mr. Jaffee, as is my want in most circumstances. I believe the long game, if Trump even has one, (though certainly Miller, Vought, Theil, Vance, et al have a long game) it is based on the idea of divvying up the globe for spheres of control from which they can plunder. Can’t believe he will ever get over his personal grievance against Zelenskyy for refusing to trade arms for an investigation. Also believe deep in my heart that Putin holds some form of komprimat over Trump, be it financial, salacious or something else entirely. Is there one ounce of concern for the plight of blameless Ukrainian civilians being bombed to death in the middle of the night? Not in the DNA of our Dear Leader. It means less than nothing to him. But the larger point from my lazy-we’re the only ones that matter- American perspective is the deliverance today of a FIFTEEN FOLD increase in a budget for apprehension and detention of ‘enemies of the State’ by the regime. What we have witnessed over the past two weeks in Los Angeles will soon be replicated in San Jose, San Francisco, Portland, Seattle, Phoenix, Las Vegas, Chicago, New York, Philadelphia, Boston, Baltimore, DC, and Atlanta- all at the same time and all the time. He has just been gifted his very own SS at the expense of some nice tax breaks and the betrayal of ten nor twenty million less fortunate subjects of his regime. It wont take long, in the minds of these traitors, for the American people to get used to never ending waves of disappearances, with the number of people affected gradually widening from immigrants to an enemies the Dear Leader has identified for disappearance, detention, deportation, “un-personing”. The same process is occurring in Mexico with enshrining the National Guard into fully becoming an arm of the president as opposed to a Federal Force. The times are dark and getting darker every day. Oh, and Happy Independence Day From A proud American Veteran.
Well said, and Happy Fourth to you…:)
Perhaps you could read or have read Defying Hitler by Sebastian Hafner. Good book. Also what did Chinese foreign minister Wang do yesterday?
Can't see Middle Kingdom letting Putin lose( natural resources, help in Africa, anarchy etc etc.) and this all will surely allow Chin release tiger diplomacy on EU as they move the tribute empire further to surround and box in disUSA.
Trump is a useful idiot no more and as regards P2025 what makes you think there will be any midtetm elections anway?
Trump has been intimately tied to the Russians for years, beginning with money laundering of Russian oligarchs and mafia funds in his hotels and real estate deals. Years ago (1984) the Financial Times published an expose on Russian money laundering that tied Trump to a notorious Russian mobster at Trump Tower. There have been numerous stories detailing the increasing connections between Trump and Russia. Trump is "owned" by the KGB/FSB and Putin and has been for many years. The incredible thing is the fact that Trump has managed to deflect all these well-documented exposes and rise the presidency!
Here's a story from December , 2017...after his first election...that lays out the deep involvement of Russia in his election and the methods used. The same methods were used in the the 2024 election with increased use of Russian bots and hacking. So Trump is totally owned by Putin and the only difference now is that he is so far gone into dementia that he sometimes thinks he has the upper hand. It explains his "on again, off again" ramblings about his relationship with Putin. In fact, it's the realization, by Putin, that Trump is now "non compos mentis" that allows him to ignore him publicly.
https://www.americanprogress.org/article/following-the-money/
This is depressing as hell mainly because I fear you are all correct in some manner about the forces of anti-freedom.
And his family companies will be paying the heavy cost of failure for many years. Russia is too corrupt to expect profitable business relationships.
Exactly. There’s a reason most US and European countries refuse to do business with Russia (outside of oil and gas); they have no “rule of law” outside of it being 100% corrupt! And sadly, we’re starting to come in a close second!….:)
Shankar and Robert Jaffe, I admire both of your comments on this complex and intriguing subject. My simplistic view, long held for several years, is that the GOP has for approaching two decades come to the understanding that the criminal mob oriented, kleptocratic, oligarchic, autocracy run by Putin in Russia is the model of governance they are determined to implement here in the United States.
Couple that with the fact that Tr*^p is thoroughly owned by Putin via a long history of kompromat and Russian enrichment reinforced by a significant swath of the GOP (and some number of the democrat) congressional delegation and no small cadre of administration officials who have been compromised by Russian kompromat, financial largess or both. This has made for a powerful pro-Putin force in this country that has now achieved critical mass with the capability to destroy the one key force in the world capable of countering Russia’s evil global objectives. That is where we find ourselves today.
This current trajectory is already well on track for the destruction of the US as a global counter valence to the Russian menace. If it continues unchecked there is a very high likelihood that we will eventually see Russia and the US ally themselves to shake down the remaining free democracies around the world to hand over control of their global resources to the oligarchs class. At that point “The Borg” will have been born and the aggressive destruction of the rest of the planet will have commenced.
And do not forget the Middle Kingdom's desire to take over disUSA role and control it maybe in a slightly different way to the way they now control Rus but as the tribute empire grows leaving the Ming version way far behind and Chin now start their advance on the EU now disUSA has abandoned NATO in real terms. The real contest is shaping up with disUSA polity and power dissolved in shreds with P2025 vying with the Middle Kingdom to achieve their differing objectives with the useful idiot kompromat King dangling between Thiel et al and Xi spun around at will dizzied by Xi's little helper Putin.
How is the Smart election machine interference case progressing and how are the Middle Kingdom agents doing with their Korean and Rus IRA friends in any attempts they may be engaged in to put in a few software/ firmware changes?
Elections no more one way or another?
Kyiv had such a horrific night last night - I just hope to god these political games can be overcome to give them hope
Happy, or at least not-just-this-side-of-godawful 4th, Shankar. And know what? Inside, behind, and leading the pro-Putinites in the US Congress is the cabal of those techbros and other billionaires, full stop. Who else has as much motive and money, besides being total psychopaths? Just saying.
Many of the Heritage Foundation ghouls have long been putin-philic - "Christian values, protecting traditional families," bulwark against decadent liberal democracies, and all of that.
Not to mention they probably got a gander at that bejeweled Rolex Putin gave to the Patriarch of the Russian Orthodox Church. Jesus and Ill-Begotten Gains. Nice.
Sure, but Pat Buchanan, Dana Rohrbacher, and a chunk of US "Christian" politicians have been russia-envious for 25 years - before the Russian Orthodox Church was so obviously another of the Kremlin.
Curioser and curiouser sez moi.
Elbridge Colby. Got it.
Inciteful, informative piece again. Most excellent! Thank you. 🎯💯👌
Thank you Shankar. After yesterday we are all going to need to fight even harder. Best regards
Yes, the usual D.C. "power games" continue, exacerbated by totally incompetent "leadership" in the White House. Delaying or diverting needed war-fighting materials from Ukraine has become the "game of the week" for some of these self-important bureaucrats...BUT...there is an underlying concern over the depletion of missile stocks in the US inventory. Mike Fredenburg wrote a very interesting article back in November, 2024 relating to this and I have no doubts that the situation has become even more concernoing since then. Here it is and worth a read:
https://responsiblestatecraft.org/us-stockpiles-missiles/
The isolationist Quincy Institute, with Mearsheimer and Wilkerson, saw several notable resignations in light of Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine. Cirincione said he "fundamentally" disagrees with Quincy experts who "completely ignore the dangers and the horrors of Russia's invasion and occupation and focus almost exclusively on criticism of the United States, NATO, and Ukraine". Eaton said he resigned because he "supports NATO."
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quincy_Institute_for_Responsible_Statecraft
Mike Fredenberg is a Russia booster that writes for Epoch Times, NRO and others. No thanks.
Bridge Colby is excrement.
After reading this post and all of the comments, I am wondering who has the urge to leave the US behind? I don’t have that urge.
Do you have that urge Shankar and the audience?
Genuinely interested!
If we didn't have kids and grandkids here, we be trying hard to get out. We're staying because our kids will need us.
I see.
Thanks for an answer. My daughter is moving to Spain, fyi.
Just like me and her brother, she has EU passport.
Don’t believe a word Frumoy says. He’s a lying conman.
I think this is propaganda from Trump. The Ukraine offered 5 billion dollars for patriots and Trump refused.
The regime is using smoke and mirrors to cover up. If they wanted Ukraine to have the missiles, why were they sent to Poland and not released immediately.?
Why has Trunp been silent on this issue?
Why did he not sent the 40,OOo drones promised to the Ukraine and divert them to the middle east.
Could this be another tactic in trying to break the Ukrainian peoples morale so they will give up and surrender.
This is another poker in the bonfire being lit by Trump.