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Alexandra Barcus's avatar

How long do you estimate before US manufacturers realize the change in the tide? I can’t believe any of the European countries are stupid enough to turn back to the U.S. Now they are in the crosshairs of stupid tariffs as well as the seismic shift toward Putin.

I keep joking that I knew my Russian would come in handy one day. I just didn’t realize it would be because Putin was being given carte Blanche to take over this country. Don’t know what Trump envisions, but he won’t be on the winning end in that little arrangement. I have had decades to learn to appreciate the malignant threat Putin embodies.

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Shankar Narayan's avatar

Realize.... They already know. They just don't know what to do.

Eu does have some problems. Their weapons are heavily integrated with the US infrastructure. How are you going to get out of it. It will take time. Two years and only if Germany leads from the front. Step by step they need to chip away. The need to get rid of their dependency on US fighter jets, which is easier said that done. It is the mother of all shakeups.

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Alexandra Barcus's avatar

Nothing like this kind of pressure to trigger innovation. It is times like these that produce great inventions like Enigma. Not a fighter jet, but unexpected things can happen too. Brilliant minds with a purpose. I have faith in them when they feel like this.

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Shankar Narayan's avatar

Yes. I am actually glad to see Germany moving so fast. It is breathtaking speed by their standards. They have snapped and it will stop only when the US is fully balanced and counter weights are mounted.

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Doug Hiller's avatar

Germany, France and U.K. might have to start planning a launch of their own GPS comparable system. All the vaunted high accuracy missiles (like Taurus) rely on it, and Trump has just directed denial of GPS for Ukraine, along with the cutoff of armament deliveries and intel sharing. All indications are Trump is going full Putin, and the U.S. may not be able to solve our Trump/Vance problem before he gets us to Orwell’s 1984.

Merz, Starmer and Macron have their work cut out for them and I think they know it.

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Alexandra Barcus's avatar

And that will not be happening for quite some time. I can’t see Trump being ejected. I’d love to know what kind of threats he is making against Republicans. Some of them adore him, but not all of them surely. A few must see what he is ushering in.

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Doug Hiller's avatar

Check out substack “feathers of hope”; https://jerryweiss.substack.com/ on the topic of Trump ejection and potential (R) members with integrity.

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K H Hardy's avatar

France is ITAR-free. De Gaulle was not only right, he understood the potential for American perfidy—so French military equipment is the best situated to decouple Europe from the US. They can’t do it all alone, but it’s a model to get moving.

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Publis's avatar

They also may not be able to do anything about it. Trump has never particularly liked Defense contractors (one of his consistencies) and the rest of the Republican party has already gelded themselves so they won't stand up to him on this. Meanwhile no Democrat can seriously win a primary on the slogan "Defend Raytheon!". And, skepticism about the Defense Industrial Complex is bipartisan among voters.

Simply put, they have no leverage on anyone and fewer friends left.

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Dave Dave's avatar

Canada finds itself in similar circumstance and should be weaning off of items like the F-35 in preference of the Eurofighter or Rafael , keep building our own ships , and expand the German Leopard 2 program .

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Felix MacNeill's avatar

Much the same here in Australia - though it could present an opportunity to review the insane AUKUS nuclear submarine deal as a first step...

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PhilsThom's avatar

And what of Five Eyes? Pine Gap? The US seems intent on demonstrating it is not the best intel partner.

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Doug Hiller's avatar

If I were designing the Australian defense budget, I’d take a hard look at bang for the buck comparison with purchase of joint production of deep strike jet drones and sea baby drones with Ukraine.

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Dave Dave's avatar

Interesting . Yeah nukesubs contingent on US whim …. Hmmm

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Wheatpaste's avatar

I try to talk to other people in the US about the threat of AUKUS. They mostly have never heard of it, even the more informed.

And they certainly don’t want to hear that it made the invasion of Ukraine more probable (because China, feeling threatened, was willing to commit to buy Russian oil, thus making Western sanctions not debilitating/deterring).

And this nuclear (powered?) sub deal will be churning for decades, definitely the rest of my lifetime as this weapons get built and deployed.

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French_follower's avatar

Putting aside all the real tragedy due to the Mad King election in the US.

It's gonna be kind of funny actually to see those who helped Trump get elected witnessing the negative effects of their foolish support, on their own pocket.

Tesla's Elon Musk company first. How foolish can you be to engage in cutthroats politics, and go all in in the humiliation of the other side, when your main source of revenue is a worldwide B2C company.

Clients that you are insulting all day for their political opinions are walking away from your product.

Countries that you are threatening to invade don't really want to buy your weapons anymore.

Who would have thought?

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Robert Honeyman's avatar

US military contractors will be selling to second tier nations just to stay afloat. Talk about an absolute shitshow.

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Gillian Handley's avatar

In Australia, we have signed a trilateral security partnership with the US and UK (AUKUS), with delivery of nuclear-powered attack submarines at some far point in the future. Under the agreement, the US can pull out at any time if they feel it disadvantages their own supplies. Last month we paid our 1st instalment of US $500 million to the US. We are on the eve of a national election and I think a lot of Australians will want to revisit this deal as the premise it was built on - that the US is an ally of the West - is crumbling. The deal was originally with the French, but our previous prime minister shafted them - to our extreme mortification. We voted him out shortly after that. Perhaps Stamer has a cunning plan for AUKUS - I really hope so.

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Andrew Williams's avatar

Portugal canceled its F-35 contract, Canada is likely to follow suit, and just like that Trump has killed the American military industry.

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Mikkel Fjellstad's avatar

The USA used to be The reliable partner, not anymore!

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Keith Sherman's avatar

Make it so!

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Lea's avatar

Gee maga are you ok with that?

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Scott Hanley's avatar

I'm wrestling with whether this is an intended or unintended consequence.

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Robert Honeyman's avatar

Complete surprise to the mental midgets in TFG's Cabinet. It's a massive gift to Putin.

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Monika Prost's avatar

They will come to their senses eventually. Everything has been happening so fast and EU reads different news than we do. Give them some time…

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Shankar Narayan's avatar

What they do in the next 30 days will have more impact than what they do between 30 and 60. I hope they understand that.

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Alexis's avatar

Well quite frankly considering the incredibly slow reactions in the US, the Europeans look like they’re moving at warp speed. A 1/4 of Americans aren’t even aware of what’s happening, 1/4 are and are organizing, 1/4 iare sitting behind their screens demanding the “Dems do something” or lwaiting to take the House in the midterms” and the other 1/4 are cheering Trump on!

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