I am not worried about Iran. Israel is the one breaking international law and basic human decency and morality on the daily. With the support of the US and Europe.
Glad to see Russia’s only aircraft carrier hit the scrap heap. Is Russia great? Forget great again. Are they great now? No. They are an overstretched aircraft carrier that is sinking. Rehabilitating the Russia people towards democracy and anti-corruption might take the world a century or more. I don’t believe the Russian people have it in them.
This coming from an American witnessing our own corruption, a festering pus boil that has broken out into the open.
I know. But nothing will change until that Net is out. It is a sad freaking spot. He played Biden and he is now playing Trump too. He wants to be a dictator.
Europe can exert pressure. That they refuse to do so makes them complicit in the genocide. Obv the US is deeply involved.
Merz also telling Ukraine NATO membership is possible in 2034? What a mistake. Mr. Obrien mentioned that may have led Ukraine to weakening its anti-corruption efforts if the US and EU look the other way.
I don’t know where you’re going with this but I’ll try to respond to a couple of the points that you make:
No, I don’t expect oligarchs to let democracy flourish because that would be contradictory. I believe that good people eventually achieve the society that suits them; probably democracy but maybe something different.
The universe is not unfair; it is surprisingly well-balanced (think karma?) and a good place to learn to live, love and become wise.
Yes, I believe that Volodymyr Zelenskyy is the right person to make democracy work in Ukraine. Слава Україні!
You mention TACO; raising the spectre of Project 2025 in the USA, to be followed closely by Project Esther - a deal worse by all accounts. Whilst I hope you manage to stay safe in New York under Zohran Mamdani; when the ravages of Project 2025 become irreversible and Project Esther kicks in soon afterwards, you might find that any criticism of the current regime in the USA brings a knock on the door from ICE, with a dose of the fear felt by the oppressed and dispossessed good people of Russia and, tragically, numerous other countries elsewhere.
I admire your optimism of the Russian and American people. I hope we make it happen.
Perhaps. You are the third person in the last week to tell me that the universe is a good place to love. It may be the end result of it, but how we get there has a lot of violence, inequality, and poverty. And I say this as a former Hindu understanding karma and dharma full well.
Слава Україні! Zelenskyy is human, as the anti-corruption law shows, but he wants what is best for his people.
I will have to look into Project Esther. Projecg 2025 is awful, thanks to all three branches being complicit. Sadly, I am not in NYC currently, I am a NYer in spirit. Mamdani if he wins will be great for NYC. I will continue criticizing this regime and not submit in advance. Ukraine is at the vanguard of defending freedom and democracy. Those of us in the US need to do our part and reduce corruption. Democracy that is corrupt can not last.
I wish you well, Andrew. Thanks for the lively dicussion and optimism. May your optimism and hope come true in a world badly needing it.
I wouldn’t dismiss the Russian people so readily - the average Russian person is a good person I’m sure; many of the older ones being used to decades of cruel oppression and poverty. Such people help each other in adversity and, don’t forget, have a history of revolution at the drop of a hat … when the time is right.
I’ll reserve judgment. Even as Poots destroys their way of life, kills their family members, support for him and the war within Russia is above 80%. Have you known any year in your life when Russia acted with decency? I haven’t. And that is true for the last 100 years.
Edit: I’ll add the only decent Russians I know are those that left Russia and criticize the regime.
Putin jails or kills people who criticise him - most Russians say nothing because their life and the safety of their loved ones depends on it. Only wealthy Russians, and other lucky ones, who were able to leave are free to criticise Putin if they feel safe to do so; some don’t. News is heavily censored, distorted or unavailable within Russia and I expect the average person really doesn’t know what is going on. Under these circumstances, opinion polls are likely to be meaningless and it seems unfair to write off a whole nation on this basis.
Let’s see what happens when Putin is gone. TACO is following Putin’s playbook closely. Do you expect the next Russian oligarch to let democracy flourish and tampdown on corruption?
It seems unfair to write off Russia, but the universe is unfair. I have more faith in Ukraine making democracy work.
Great news Shankar, and I agree their economy is in shambles; however, when it comes to GDP PPP (Purchasing Power Parity); they’re still relatively strong, thanks to their energy sector, even with sanctions imposed. And let’s face it, Trump isn’t enforcing many of the existing sanctions already enacted.
And they’re still getting 40% of their ammunition and missiles from N.Korea. This is why I thought that 50 day grace period before Trump considered sanctions is important.
They’ve been bombing and droning Ukraine relentlessly every night, including major civilian cities like Kiev, Dnipro, Sumy.
That said, let’s hope all these American and European weapons systems get in theater soon….:)
Still can't believe she chose to cut two full points. Nuts and dangerous. I hope Ukraine starts hitting deep. Now is the time they need to squeeze as the effect will be lot more now than later.
Well, he did, didn't he, Gorbachev? And indeed it didn't take.
I would pity the Russians if they'd only allowed themselves to serve as canon fodder every other generation.
But while being butchered, they also butcher other peoples. Fins, Poles, Ukrainians, Ests, Lithuanians, Georgians and dozens of other peoples. And that's why I hate them.
Michiel, I know a few Russian Russians and a few Satellite Russians who were smart enough to take advantage of the 1990s to leave and make lives for themselves here. When my wife and I visited them in St. Petersburg and in Akademgorodok, just outside Novosibirsk, in about 1993, we found them and many of their neighbors extremely nice and pleasant folks. One of our hosts in Siberia took us into Novosibirsk to show the Fallen Heroes Monument and tell us how much more it meant to him before the records became available showing how many more people Stalin had killed before, during and after WW II. I say all of that as preamble to saying I can only see the common Russians as fellow humans, trying to live with what they have in front of them. It’s their leaders with whom I am disgusted. Like most of us who follow Narayan, I look forward to an eventual Ukrainian victory. At the same time, I can only wish the Russian people an eventual rise from the oppression in which they are held.
I would also point out that notwithstanding our long standing democracy, this nation seems to be having great difficulty with keeping our wannabe dictator in that category! May we succeed as well.
Well... Maybe a few months after the abdication of the tsar and a few years under Yeltsin. But that's still next to nothing when you consider the country's long history.
To be fair to Elvira Nabiullina, she had little choice. She had the "phone call" from Putin expressing "concern" over high interest rates. She doesn't like open windows. Yes, the Russian economy is in dire straits across the board. If anyone is interested in a more personal view of Russia — both its society and economy —I would recommend watching "Inside Russia" on YouTube. It's hosted by an expat Russian, Konstantin", who is an economist. He left Russia after the invasion of Ukraine.
Because we’re talking Russia, paranoia is a narrator, and it’s telling me that the recent assassination of a Russian minister may have informed Russia’s Central Bank president of the quality of her future if she did not reduce interest rates.
Meanwhile Trump is shoveling as much Time to Putin as he can - currently presenting Time in 50 day increments. This Putin-Trump dynamic deserves to be interrupted. The EU should interrupt by establishing a schedule for releasing frozen Russian assets to Ukraine.
Syria was being attacked by outside forces and terrorists because Assad was holding SH’s WMDs, plus his own. At one point in 2010 and 2011, at least 4 different groups were fighting each other and Assad’s army. They also kidnapped and murdered parents, tied the the children up and made them watch, then cut the children’s hearts’ out. One of them posted a photo of a girl. It was super depressing. This was before AI. Now Assad is gone and the terrorists that democrats love are in charge. Like in Libya. Russia should have hit them harder.
In which ways does lowering interest rates during a time of depressed economic activity (stagflation) harm people? Trump’s bullying of Powell seems to be an imitation of what Putin is doing to artificially lower rates. I don’t understand economics well enough to see what the fallout will be.
I’m not sure that I would trust any economist’s predictions if they’re about the future, but here are some straightforward effects of the decision to lower interest rates:
* High interest rates make investments expensive and thereby unlikely to happen: If you don’t have sufficient liquid assets for funding the investment under consideration, you’re not likely to want to accept the risk of asking a bank for a loan in a situation like what exists currently in Russia. If you have sufficient liquid assets, you will still compare the hoped-for profits from the investment against the less risky alternative of just collecting interest. A similar consideration applies to potential investors when a company tries to fund an investment by selling shares to investors. Lowering the interest rate reduces this negative effect of high interest rates; it is generally expected to have an effect to stimulating the economy. However, the interest rate remains so high that I wouldn’t expect this stimulation effect to be of any significance in Russia’s case.
* Lowering interest rates increases the value of government bonds and other fixed-rate securities that banks and other financial institutions have on their books, decreasing the risk of banks going bankrupt etc. Another positive effect. Nabiullina knows much more about how stable Russia’s banks are or not (certainly many banks will have large amounts of distressed loans on their books) than what we know. This might be significant. It could IMO be the true reason why Nabiullina is taking this step. (Note that if this is the true reason, of course it cannot be officially announced as the reason, because doing so would cause bank runs and thereby the very bank bankruptcies that the policy is aimed at preventing.)
* Lowering interest rates generally makes it less expensive to spend money, thereby figuratively increasing how much money people have in their hands when looking to buy what products and services are on offer. That’s why lowering interest rates generally has the effect of increasing inflation. However, the interest rate remains so high that I wouldn’t expect this inflationary effect to be of any major significance in Russia’s case.
* Lowering interest rates with an evidently untrue justification in a context where everyone knows that the president has been demanding that, that signals that the central bank has functionally lost its independence and thereby its trustworthiness. That is generally seen as a recipe for disastrously high inflation, because if there is no trust that the central bank will make reasonable decisions in the future, there can be no trust in the currency having significant value in the future, and such lack of trust in the currency’s future value leads people to selling the currency for whatever they’re able to buy with it, like e.g. things of durable value, or foreign currency. That can very easily lead to what is called hyperinflation. IMO Nabiullina is taking a huge risk in that regard.
She might be increasing her own chances of survival though. In today’s Russia, it’s not good for your health to be seen disobeying a direct order from Putin.
Your analysis is cogent, precise, and insightful. Jim Rickards constantly blathers on about how Ukraine will collapse any day now. Does he have some special insight that you lack, or is he half a bubble off plumb? I believe the latter, but need you and your readers' insight.
Russia is far from failing. It's been three and a half years now that Western propaganda keeps repeating this. We need to stop letting ourselves be brainwashed by our "media."
One thing is certain, though: with each passing day, Russia is increasingly forced to spend time, resources, manpower, and above all, money. The recent spike in casualties since the beginning of 2025 is proof of that.
I'm curious to see what will happen once they manage to conquer the entire Donbas. Will they stop and claim victory? Will they push further? Will the West stop, or will it help the Ukrainians to try to reclaim territory—should they attempt such a move?
These are questions for which we have no answer. All we can do is wait.
Good morning Mr. Narayan.
“That’s how you contain a regime like Iran.”
I am not worried about Iran. Israel is the one breaking international law and basic human decency and morality on the daily. With the support of the US and Europe.
Glad to see Russia’s only aircraft carrier hit the scrap heap. Is Russia great? Forget great again. Are they great now? No. They are an overstretched aircraft carrier that is sinking. Rehabilitating the Russia people towards democracy and anti-corruption might take the world a century or more. I don’t believe the Russian people have it in them.
This coming from an American witnessing our own corruption, a festering pus boil that has broken out into the open.
I know. But nothing will change until that Net is out. It is a sad freaking spot. He played Biden and he is now playing Trump too. He wants to be a dictator.
Bibi is a dictator. He did play Biden.
Europe can exert pressure. That they refuse to do so makes them complicit in the genocide. Obv the US is deeply involved.
Merz also telling Ukraine NATO membership is possible in 2034? What a mistake. Mr. Obrien mentioned that may have led Ukraine to weakening its anti-corruption efforts if the US and EU look the other way.
@SomeNYDude …
I don’t know where you’re going with this but I’ll try to respond to a couple of the points that you make:
No, I don’t expect oligarchs to let democracy flourish because that would be contradictory. I believe that good people eventually achieve the society that suits them; probably democracy but maybe something different.
The universe is not unfair; it is surprisingly well-balanced (think karma?) and a good place to learn to live, love and become wise.
Yes, I believe that Volodymyr Zelenskyy is the right person to make democracy work in Ukraine. Слава Україні!
You mention TACO; raising the spectre of Project 2025 in the USA, to be followed closely by Project Esther - a deal worse by all accounts. Whilst I hope you manage to stay safe in New York under Zohran Mamdani; when the ravages of Project 2025 become irreversible and Project Esther kicks in soon afterwards, you might find that any criticism of the current regime in the USA brings a knock on the door from ICE, with a dose of the fear felt by the oppressed and dispossessed good people of Russia and, tragically, numerous other countries elsewhere.
Go well …
Andrew
I admire your optimism of the Russian and American people. I hope we make it happen.
Perhaps. You are the third person in the last week to tell me that the universe is a good place to love. It may be the end result of it, but how we get there has a lot of violence, inequality, and poverty. And I say this as a former Hindu understanding karma and dharma full well.
Слава Україні! Zelenskyy is human, as the anti-corruption law shows, but he wants what is best for his people.
I will have to look into Project Esther. Projecg 2025 is awful, thanks to all three branches being complicit. Sadly, I am not in NYC currently, I am a NYer in spirit. Mamdani if he wins will be great for NYC. I will continue criticizing this regime and not submit in advance. Ukraine is at the vanguard of defending freedom and democracy. Those of us in the US need to do our part and reduce corruption. Democracy that is corrupt can not last.
I wish you well, Andrew. Thanks for the lively dicussion and optimism. May your optimism and hope come true in a world badly needing it.
I wouldn’t dismiss the Russian people so readily - the average Russian person is a good person I’m sure; many of the older ones being used to decades of cruel oppression and poverty. Such people help each other in adversity and, don’t forget, have a history of revolution at the drop of a hat … when the time is right.
I’ll reserve judgment. Even as Poots destroys their way of life, kills their family members, support for him and the war within Russia is above 80%. Have you known any year in your life when Russia acted with decency? I haven’t. And that is true for the last 100 years.
Edit: I’ll add the only decent Russians I know are those that left Russia and criticize the regime.
Putin jails or kills people who criticise him - most Russians say nothing because their life and the safety of their loved ones depends on it. Only wealthy Russians, and other lucky ones, who were able to leave are free to criticise Putin if they feel safe to do so; some don’t. News is heavily censored, distorted or unavailable within Russia and I expect the average person really doesn’t know what is going on. Under these circumstances, opinion polls are likely to be meaningless and it seems unfair to write off a whole nation on this basis.
Let’s see what happens when Putin is gone. TACO is following Putin’s playbook closely. Do you expect the next Russian oligarch to let democracy flourish and tampdown on corruption?
It seems unfair to write off Russia, but the universe is unfair. I have more faith in Ukraine making democracy work.
I think the US should buy Admiral Kuznetsov and place it in front of the Russian Embassy, a nice memento/monument!
Haha. Lol
pretty sure that Britain, France, Italy, and Spain have aircraft carriers.
Britain has 2
France 1
Italy 1
Spain 0
Germany 0
Thanks. Updated.
Italian navy has 2 light aircraft carriers according to Wikipedia
All three nations are in such a financial mess.
Great news Shankar, and I agree their economy is in shambles; however, when it comes to GDP PPP (Purchasing Power Parity); they’re still relatively strong, thanks to their energy sector, even with sanctions imposed. And let’s face it, Trump isn’t enforcing many of the existing sanctions already enacted.
And they’re still getting 40% of their ammunition and missiles from N.Korea. This is why I thought that 50 day grace period before Trump considered sanctions is important.
They’ve been bombing and droning Ukraine relentlessly every night, including major civilian cities like Kiev, Dnipro, Sumy.
That said, let’s hope all these American and European weapons systems get in theater soon….:)
One more quarter. And yes..Ukraine needs to.make this period count. Very important..
From your mouth to gods ears…:)
Two things...
France and the UK have 3 aircraft carriers between them.
And fuck all the Russians suffering under Putin. They have only themselves to blame...
Yes.. and yes.
Still can't believe she chose to cut two full points. Nuts and dangerous. I hope Ukraine starts hitting deep. Now is the time they need to squeeze as the effect will be lot more now than later.
They have to blame themselves for 3 centuries? The country never experienced democracy…
They are Slavic - where our word 'slaves' comes from. And they have been slaves for a lot longer than three centuries.
And they will remain slaves until they choose not to be slaves, and rid themselves of dictators when those dictators are still wannabe dictators.
Your point being?
Somebody has to show them the way, like Gorbachev. Slaves can’t decide anything, it’s not their mentality.
Well, he did, didn't he, Gorbachev? And indeed it didn't take.
I would pity the Russians if they'd only allowed themselves to serve as canon fodder every other generation.
But while being butchered, they also butcher other peoples. Fins, Poles, Ukrainians, Ests, Lithuanians, Georgians and dozens of other peoples. And that's why I hate them.
The only good Russian is a dead Russian...
Michiel, I know a few Russian Russians and a few Satellite Russians who were smart enough to take advantage of the 1990s to leave and make lives for themselves here. When my wife and I visited them in St. Petersburg and in Akademgorodok, just outside Novosibirsk, in about 1993, we found them and many of their neighbors extremely nice and pleasant folks. One of our hosts in Siberia took us into Novosibirsk to show the Fallen Heroes Monument and tell us how much more it meant to him before the records became available showing how many more people Stalin had killed before, during and after WW II. I say all of that as preamble to saying I can only see the common Russians as fellow humans, trying to live with what they have in front of them. It’s their leaders with whom I am disgusted. Like most of us who follow Narayan, I look forward to an eventual Ukrainian victory. At the same time, I can only wish the Russian people an eventual rise from the oppression in which they are held.
I would also point out that notwithstanding our long standing democracy, this nation seems to be having great difficulty with keeping our wannabe dictator in that category! May we succeed as well.
That is what my dad was saying all his life ( he is 95 now) and I wholeheartedly agree!
Well... Maybe a few months after the abdication of the tsar and a few years under Yeltsin. But that's still next to nothing when you consider the country's long history.
To be fair to Elvira Nabiullina, she had little choice. She had the "phone call" from Putin expressing "concern" over high interest rates. She doesn't like open windows. Yes, the Russian economy is in dire straits across the board. If anyone is interested in a more personal view of Russia — both its society and economy —I would recommend watching "Inside Russia" on YouTube. It's hosted by an expat Russian, Konstantin", who is an economist. He left Russia after the invasion of Ukraine.
Thanks Shankar, you always provide the big picture for context, which is much appreciated.
Very well reported.
Because we’re talking Russia, paranoia is a narrator, and it’s telling me that the recent assassination of a Russian minister may have informed Russia’s Central Bank president of the quality of her future if she did not reduce interest rates.
Meanwhile Trump is shoveling as much Time to Putin as he can - currently presenting Time in 50 day increments. This Putin-Trump dynamic deserves to be interrupted. The EU should interrupt by establishing a schedule for releasing frozen Russian assets to Ukraine.
Slava Ukraini!
Syria was being attacked by outside forces and terrorists because Assad was holding SH’s WMDs, plus his own. At one point in 2010 and 2011, at least 4 different groups were fighting each other and Assad’s army. They also kidnapped and murdered parents, tied the the children up and made them watch, then cut the children’s hearts’ out. One of them posted a photo of a girl. It was super depressing. This was before AI. Now Assad is gone and the terrorists that democrats love are in charge. Like in Libya. Russia should have hit them harder.
Thanks for the update, Shankar. The world is witnessing what it's like for a country that has hit bottom to have nowhere to go but down.
In which ways does lowering interest rates during a time of depressed economic activity (stagflation) harm people? Trump’s bullying of Powell seems to be an imitation of what Putin is doing to artificially lower rates. I don’t understand economics well enough to see what the fallout will be.
This is uncharted territory. Has never been done before. The issues Russia faces are unique.
I’m not sure that I would trust any economist’s predictions if they’re about the future, but here are some straightforward effects of the decision to lower interest rates:
* High interest rates make investments expensive and thereby unlikely to happen: If you don’t have sufficient liquid assets for funding the investment under consideration, you’re not likely to want to accept the risk of asking a bank for a loan in a situation like what exists currently in Russia. If you have sufficient liquid assets, you will still compare the hoped-for profits from the investment against the less risky alternative of just collecting interest. A similar consideration applies to potential investors when a company tries to fund an investment by selling shares to investors. Lowering the interest rate reduces this negative effect of high interest rates; it is generally expected to have an effect to stimulating the economy. However, the interest rate remains so high that I wouldn’t expect this stimulation effect to be of any significance in Russia’s case.
* Lowering interest rates increases the value of government bonds and other fixed-rate securities that banks and other financial institutions have on their books, decreasing the risk of banks going bankrupt etc. Another positive effect. Nabiullina knows much more about how stable Russia’s banks are or not (certainly many banks will have large amounts of distressed loans on their books) than what we know. This might be significant. It could IMO be the true reason why Nabiullina is taking this step. (Note that if this is the true reason, of course it cannot be officially announced as the reason, because doing so would cause bank runs and thereby the very bank bankruptcies that the policy is aimed at preventing.)
* Lowering interest rates generally makes it less expensive to spend money, thereby figuratively increasing how much money people have in their hands when looking to buy what products and services are on offer. That’s why lowering interest rates generally has the effect of increasing inflation. However, the interest rate remains so high that I wouldn’t expect this inflationary effect to be of any major significance in Russia’s case.
* Lowering interest rates with an evidently untrue justification in a context where everyone knows that the president has been demanding that, that signals that the central bank has functionally lost its independence and thereby its trustworthiness. That is generally seen as a recipe for disastrously high inflation, because if there is no trust that the central bank will make reasonable decisions in the future, there can be no trust in the currency having significant value in the future, and such lack of trust in the currency’s future value leads people to selling the currency for whatever they’re able to buy with it, like e.g. things of durable value, or foreign currency. That can very easily lead to what is called hyperinflation. IMO Nabiullina is taking a huge risk in that regard.
“By repeatedly cutting interest rates, Nabiullina isn’t saving Russia.”
She might be increasing her own chances of survival though. In today’s Russia, it’s not good for your health to be seen disobeying a direct order from Putin.
Your analysis is cogent, precise, and insightful. Jim Rickards constantly blathers on about how Ukraine will collapse any day now. Does he have some special insight that you lack, or is he half a bubble off plumb? I believe the latter, but need you and your readers' insight.
Time to shift the focus to China.
Russia is far from failing. It's been three and a half years now that Western propaganda keeps repeating this. We need to stop letting ourselves be brainwashed by our "media."
One thing is certain, though: with each passing day, Russia is increasingly forced to spend time, resources, manpower, and above all, money. The recent spike in casualties since the beginning of 2025 is proof of that.
I'm curious to see what will happen once they manage to conquer the entire Donbas. Will they stop and claim victory? Will they push further? Will the West stop, or will it help the Ukrainians to try to reclaim territory—should they attempt such a move?
These are questions for which we have no answer. All we can do is wait.
As for the aircraft carrier: good!
…”superpower” my ass