Russia's Pearl Harbor

Ukraine Just Blew Up a Third of Russia’s Nuclear Bomber Fleet. With Drones. On Russian Soil.

SBU chief Lt. Gen. Vasyl Malyuk standing beside a schematic map of the operation

Putin’s war machine just suffered its biggest single-day loss since the invasion began — and it didn’t happen on the battlefield. It happened deep inside Russia. In Siberia. In Murmansk. In Irkutsk. At airfields the Kremlin thought were untouchable.

Early Sunday morning, Ukraine’s Security Service (SBU) launched a long-planned covert operation codenamed Spiderweb.

And what a web it was.

After pulling off the most daring and devastating strike ever against Russia’s strategic forces, the Security Service of Ukraine issued the following statement:

$7 billion USD. That’s the estimated value of the enemy’s strategic aviation hit today as a result of the SBU’s special operation "Spiderweb."

34% of Russia’s strategic cruise missile carriers were struck at their main airbases.

We’ll share more details about the SBU's special operation a bit later.

But for now, we have only one thing to say to the Russians:
"And you thought Ukraine would be easy? Ukraine is magnificent. Ukraine is one of a kind. She’s been run over by every steamroller of history. Every type of trial has been tested on her. She is forged in the strongest fire. In today’s world, she is priceless."
— Lina Kostenko

We’re doing everything to drive the enemy from our land!
We’ll strike them at sea, in the air, and on the ground.
And if we have to — we’ll drag them out from underground.

Glory to Ukraine! Glory to the heroes! 🇺🇦

Using FPV drones hidden inside wooden huts mounted on trucks, Ukraine smuggled its weapons deep into Russian territory, parked them near five major airbases — and then lit the targets up. The objective? Russia’s strategic cruise missile carriers: the Tu-95s, Tu-22M3s, and even an A-50 Mainstay airborne early warning aircraft. The very same bombers that launch weekly missile attacks on Ukrainian cities.

One detail I’m watching closely: the level of damage to the A-50. If that aircraft is pushed out of service even temporarily — even for just a few months — Russia loses its ability to conduct round-the-clock air surveillance. It’s not just a plane. It’s their battlefield eyes and brain.

And the truth is, they’re already bleeding that capability.

• January 14, 2024: Ukraine shot down an A-50 over the Sea of Azov using a Patriot missile system.

• February 23, 2024: A second A-50 was downed over Russia's Krasnodar region, reportedly using a Soviet-era S-200 system.

That brings us to Sunday’s hit — potentially the third A-50 taken out. If confirmed, that’s nearly half the fleet gone, and the rest overstretched. According to Ukraine’s intel chief Kyrylo Budanov, Russia could barely maintain 24/7 aerial surveillance with six aircraft. He said that after the second A-50 was taken out, losing just one more would break the cycle.

That moment may have just arrived.

Link

The loss of third A-50 means there will be windows — real, exploitable windows — when Russia is operating blind. And blindness changes everything. It opens the path for F-16s and Mirages to advance. It allows Ukrainian drones to move freely, undetected. It gives missiles a clean shot at high-value targets — including the Russian ground-based air defense grid — with minimal warning.

And that’s just one aircraft.

Sources now confirm that at least 40 strategic bombers were damaged or destroyed in the raid. The SBU pegs the total damage at $7 billion — a staggering figure, both materially and psychologically. In terms of cost and shock value, this attack surpasses even the sinking of the Moskva, Russia’s Black Sea flagship.

But this isn't just about dollar signs.

The most devastating part of this attack is not the money. It’s the irreplaceability. These aircraft — the Tu-95s, the Tu-22M3s, the A-50s — can’t simply be replaced. Not in weeks. Not in months. Maybe not even in years. Russia's production lines can’t keep up. Sanctions have choked their supply chains.

Putin’s already out of money. He’s barely sustaining daily recruitment while bleeding men by the hundreds.

This wasn’t just a blow. It was an amputation.

And this strike? It wasn’t random. It hit one day before ceasefire talks were set to begin in Istanbul. A not-so-subtle message from Kyiv: We’re done negotiating from weakness. While Moscow was prepping for another round of missile terror, Ukraine blew a hole through the runway.

Even Russia’s Defense Ministry had to admit it: five airfields hit, fires broke out, aircraft ignited. And for the first time in this war, drones struck targets in Siberia.

This wasn’t a fluke. This is a turning point. Ukrainian drones can now strike anywhere. And the one asset Putin actually cares about — his strategic air fleet — is no longer safe. Civilians never mattered to him. But those planes? That was his power projection. His nuclear umbrella. His deterrence.

Ukraine just poked a hole in that umbrella — and set it on fire.

This wasn’t just a raid.

It was a message.

---

If this kind of unfiltered geopolitical analysis hits the mark—subscribe. Get sharp, no-BS breakdowns straight to your inbox. Every subscription, free or paid, helps push democracies in the right direction.