"Time and production are on Ukraine’s side — if Europe has the will to act, and if the United States stops playing games."
The problem with getting all of Europe on the same page and heading into the right direction is like..."herding cats". Unfortunately, that will not happen until Russian troops show up in Tallinn. In the meantime Ukraine will have to rely on the "coalition of the willing" to provide suitable monies and material. Ukraine is getting stronger and increasingly less reliant on outside sources for weapons. Yes, the need for aircraft is a pressing one. Ukraine cannot produce those so they are dependent on Europe in that regard. Zelenskyy has stated a need for at least 128 F-16's, Upwards of 85 older versions have been pledged but probably only 16-20 actually delivered. One big problem is pilot and ground crew training. It will do no good to have more planes than can be supported at the present time and actual numbers of personnel have not been disclosed, for obvious reasons. Of course, if Ukraine keeps destroying Russian fighters at the present rate they may not need as many fighters of their own (just kidding).
Finally, by this time, it should be obvious to everyone that any aid coming from the U.S., under Trump, will be "gravy". How the mighty have fallen.
Anything above 100 units will make a massive difference. It is not a random number. The reason is Russia fields around 250 to 300 jets. And not all of them have the same capability. So, Ukraine with more than 100 F16s, will start punching the Russian jets out of the air.
The reason 3 American presidents have failed to stop Putin is that they are all advised by a foreign policy consensus that sees the Russian empire as an eternal fact of life. They speak Russian, they are marinated in the cold war belief that smart ppl accommodate the bear.
Maybe Trump is different. He has additional layer of admiration for czars.
It is that and more. There is an irrational fear of the break up of the Russian Federation and all the “chaos” it entails including control of the vast nuclear arsenal. It is the fear of the unknown and better to deal with the devil you know than one you do not.
The Russia hands have a deluded exhaltation of Russia's culture and links to the west against China. These dangerous fantasies are the script of the Moscow-Beijing unlimited Axis. They should have known better for years, but only parroted their own obsolete talking points.
Century after century, the history shows you the German have things done ( good or bad).
I hope rest of Europe follows, but again, history shows you flakiness of France, Italy, former Yugoslavia. And don’t even mention former USSR satellites except Baltics.
Former East Germany is bizarrely sentimental for the bad old days and supports Russia. So it is challenging for any German leader to maintain strong war support. Maybe that is changing?
Just sent your invitation link to a good friend with an interest in Ukraine and warfare--not because he approves of its indiscriminate use, but because he served in Afghanistan, which opened his eyes to any number of related things. You are a gem, Shankar.
Is the whole US military apparatus and government in on the games being played? And if so, why? I know Trump adores Putin, but a real Trump bailout for Putin would isolate Trump from the rest of the world—permanently. Presumably he can’t support both Netanyahu and Putin at least while Iran is in play. Unless the chess being played is more complicated than I think.
We need to make it clear to the people of the U.S. that Trump is responsible for all these bombing raids we have seen on Ukraine. That blood is on his hands. He is a traitor.
Meanwhile I am very happy with the scenarios you lay out. Do you think there is any chance of Putin being toppled sooner by the inner circle if they know he is effectively doomed but will take down the country with him? A completely broke Russia will be hard for anyone to resuscitate.
There’s a small but vocal group that staunchly opposes both this policy and Putin himself. But the landscape is split into three factions overall. First, the anti-Putin hardliners. Second, the "fear-first" obama group—those shaped by post-9/11 and Obama-era security orthodoxy, who default to institutional trust and NATO is defense talking points. And third, the ideologically driven pro-Putin camp, who view him as a bulwark against Western liberalism. So it’s one group versus two—outnumbered.
Thank you. I mustn’t give in to wishful thinking. But I will hope for more clever moves by Ukraine. And hope for continued work on taking down the false flag operation on the shadow fleet. Damage wherever you can make it.
There is a long history of the US rescuing Russia even before they had nuclear weapons. 1917, 1945ish and then 2000s. I think this comes out of the Monroe Doctrine and desire to balance and limit European power.
It's problematic how many Maggots are in the Defense establishment embracing Putin as a savior against diverse liberalism. Ukraine has known for some time they have to be wary of US military counterparts who have been turned to Putinism. While we wish the defense establishment will follow law and Ppatriotism, and not lawless orders, it'll be a matter of individual character and chance when orders come to betray Ukraine.
I think that Ukraine is going about the war in the right way by attacking Russian war making logistics without waiting for the USA. Their economy cannot replace their daily losses no matter how hard they spin their propaganda or convince Taco Trump. The coalition is coming on well but has to plan for both winning in Ukraine and defending the Baltic countries plus Moldova.
I want to thank you for your insightful articles—they’re among the few that give me hope for a decisive Ukrainian victory. Your analysis often makes it seem that Russia is on the back foot, and I deeply appreciate your optimism and expertise.
At the same time, I find myself struggling with the contrast between that hope and the brutal reality on the ground. Just last night, Ukraine suffered one of the heaviest bombardments yet. Russia seems to still have extensive resources—far more drones and missiles than one might expect from reading some of the commentary.
I truly hope your analysis proves correct in the long run. But with the war grinding on and so many Ukrainians still suffering and dying, I sometimes find it hard to reconcile hopeful forecasts with what’s happening day to day.
“Time and production are on Ukraine’s side — if Europe has the will to act, and if the United States stops playing games.”
I have zero hope that the US stops playing games.
I have zero hope that Europe as a whole gains the necessary clarity that is a precondition for having will to act.
But there are some key people in Europe, including the political leaders of the “big four” countries (Germany, UK, France, Poland) who IMO see clearly enough and who together have the power to get much done. I’m cautiously optimistic that that might be enough to provide to Ukraine the support they need to win this war, together with the Ukrainians’ own impressive courage and ingenuity.
(Things would have been far better of course with better support from Europe as a whole and/or from the US. The number of influential people who can truthfully say “I have done what I could” is very small.)
those two are highly critical elements. Everything is important, but these two can change the timeline of victory and also change the way victory is achieved.
europe is begining to speak as one, their biggest problem is who will hold the nukes when russia falls, can they do a somewht similar deal with whats left of russia, similar to the ukraine nuclear deal
Yes it is a problem but is that problem a better one to face compared to keeping Putin in the game and risking the baltics? I think UK and France need to work on a contingency plan to take over the nukes. I am reasonably confident that at some point UK and France would have gamed this out. My only hope is their plan is standalone European one that has no depedency whatsoever on the United States. They should ideally have two plans. One with US and one with zero US assistance.
Do you think Putin will get desperate enough about falling that he will use a tactical nuke? Desperate sociopaths and such... I'm hoping the oligarchs would put a stop to any thoughts of that.
Highly likely-- They will get rid of him to protect themselves. Because if he drops it, every one of them are done. They lose their money. They will be hunted down and they will be thrown in jail. Cushy ones hate jail. Putin becomes expendable at that point.
"Time and production are on Ukraine’s side — if Europe has the will to act, and if the United States stops playing games."
The problem with getting all of Europe on the same page and heading into the right direction is like..."herding cats". Unfortunately, that will not happen until Russian troops show up in Tallinn. In the meantime Ukraine will have to rely on the "coalition of the willing" to provide suitable monies and material. Ukraine is getting stronger and increasingly less reliant on outside sources for weapons. Yes, the need for aircraft is a pressing one. Ukraine cannot produce those so they are dependent on Europe in that regard. Zelenskyy has stated a need for at least 128 F-16's, Upwards of 85 older versions have been pledged but probably only 16-20 actually delivered. One big problem is pilot and ground crew training. It will do no good to have more planes than can be supported at the present time and actual numbers of personnel have not been disclosed, for obvious reasons. Of course, if Ukraine keeps destroying Russian fighters at the present rate they may not need as many fighters of their own (just kidding).
Finally, by this time, it should be obvious to everyone that any aid coming from the U.S., under Trump, will be "gravy". How the mighty have fallen.
Interesting.
Anything above 100 units will make a massive difference. It is not a random number. The reason is Russia fields around 250 to 300 jets. And not all of them have the same capability. So, Ukraine with more than 100 F16s, will start punching the Russian jets out of the air.
Russian jets still barely operate over Ukraine, for fear of losses- and defections 😆
The reason 3 American presidents have failed to stop Putin is that they are all advised by a foreign policy consensus that sees the Russian empire as an eternal fact of life. They speak Russian, they are marinated in the cold war belief that smart ppl accommodate the bear.
Maybe Trump is different. He has additional layer of admiration for czars.
...and the Pentagon and the MIC need a perpetual "boogeyman" to justify enormous defence budgets.
It is that and more. There is an irrational fear of the break up of the Russian Federation and all the “chaos” it entails including control of the vast nuclear arsenal. It is the fear of the unknown and better to deal with the devil you know than one you do not.
The Russia hands have a deluded exhaltation of Russia's culture and links to the west against China. These dangerous fantasies are the script of the Moscow-Beijing unlimited Axis. They should have known better for years, but only parroted their own obsolete talking points.
If you need to count in EU, count on Germany.
Century after century, the history shows you the German have things done ( good or bad).
I hope rest of Europe follows, but again, history shows you flakiness of France, Italy, former Yugoslavia. And don’t even mention former USSR satellites except Baltics.
Well, we will see.
Former East Germany is bizarrely sentimental for the bad old days and supports Russia. So it is challenging for any German leader to maintain strong war support. Maybe that is changing?
Just sent your invitation link to a good friend with an interest in Ukraine and warfare--not because he approves of its indiscriminate use, but because he served in Afghanistan, which opened his eyes to any number of related things. You are a gem, Shankar.
Thanks Leigh...
Thank you Shankar
I see no way that the US will stop playing games under the current Administration supported by the feckless Republican Congress.
Games will stay. But the optics of supporting loser Putin? I have my doubts. It is one of the outcome with largest variance in my calculus.
Thanks. I read elsewhere that the recruitment bonus payments have already been cut. Perhaps the cost-cutting in Russia has begun.
Thanks for the headsup. I haven't dug into their latest numbers yet. Will do it shortly.
Is the whole US military apparatus and government in on the games being played? And if so, why? I know Trump adores Putin, but a real Trump bailout for Putin would isolate Trump from the rest of the world—permanently. Presumably he can’t support both Netanyahu and Putin at least while Iran is in play. Unless the chess being played is more complicated than I think.
We need to make it clear to the people of the U.S. that Trump is responsible for all these bombing raids we have seen on Ukraine. That blood is on his hands. He is a traitor.
Meanwhile I am very happy with the scenarios you lay out. Do you think there is any chance of Putin being toppled sooner by the inner circle if they know he is effectively doomed but will take down the country with him? A completely broke Russia will be hard for anyone to resuscitate.
There’s a small but vocal group that staunchly opposes both this policy and Putin himself. But the landscape is split into three factions overall. First, the anti-Putin hardliners. Second, the "fear-first" obama group—those shaped by post-9/11 and Obama-era security orthodoxy, who default to institutional trust and NATO is defense talking points. And third, the ideologically driven pro-Putin camp, who view him as a bulwark against Western liberalism. So it’s one group versus two—outnumbered.
Thank you. I mustn’t give in to wishful thinking. But I will hope for more clever moves by Ukraine. And hope for continued work on taking down the false flag operation on the shadow fleet. Damage wherever you can make it.
There is a long history of the US rescuing Russia even before they had nuclear weapons. 1917, 1945ish and then 2000s. I think this comes out of the Monroe Doctrine and desire to balance and limit European power.
I have some reading ahead of me. I know more about Europe and Russia than I do about the U.S.
It's problematic how many Maggots are in the Defense establishment embracing Putin as a savior against diverse liberalism. Ukraine has known for some time they have to be wary of US military counterparts who have been turned to Putinism. While we wish the defense establishment will follow law and Ppatriotism, and not lawless orders, it'll be a matter of individual character and chance when orders come to betray Ukraine.
I think that Ukraine is going about the war in the right way by attacking Russian war making logistics without waiting for the USA. Their economy cannot replace their daily losses no matter how hard they spin their propaganda or convince Taco Trump. The coalition is coming on well but has to plan for both winning in Ukraine and defending the Baltic countries plus Moldova.
I want to thank you for your insightful articles—they’re among the few that give me hope for a decisive Ukrainian victory. Your analysis often makes it seem that Russia is on the back foot, and I deeply appreciate your optimism and expertise.
At the same time, I find myself struggling with the contrast between that hope and the brutal reality on the ground. Just last night, Ukraine suffered one of the heaviest bombardments yet. Russia seems to still have extensive resources—far more drones and missiles than one might expect from reading some of the commentary.
I truly hope your analysis proves correct in the long run. But with the war grinding on and so many Ukrainians still suffering and dying, I sometimes find it hard to reconcile hopeful forecasts with what’s happening day to day.
“Time and production are on Ukraine’s side — if Europe has the will to act, and if the United States stops playing games.”
I have zero hope that the US stops playing games.
I have zero hope that Europe as a whole gains the necessary clarity that is a precondition for having will to act.
But there are some key people in Europe, including the political leaders of the “big four” countries (Germany, UK, France, Poland) who IMO see clearly enough and who together have the power to get much done. I’m cautiously optimistic that that might be enough to provide to Ukraine the support they need to win this war, together with the Ukrainians’ own impressive courage and ingenuity.
(Things would have been far better of course with better support from Europe as a whole and/or from the US. The number of influential people who can truthfully say “I have done what I could” is very small.)
So, fighters and artillery shells? Where do drones and missiles fit into this?
those two are highly critical elements. Everything is important, but these two can change the timeline of victory and also change the way victory is achieved.
europe is begining to speak as one, their biggest problem is who will hold the nukes when russia falls, can they do a somewht similar deal with whats left of russia, similar to the ukraine nuclear deal
Yes it is a problem but is that problem a better one to face compared to keeping Putin in the game and risking the baltics? I think UK and France need to work on a contingency plan to take over the nukes. I am reasonably confident that at some point UK and France would have gamed this out. My only hope is their plan is standalone European one that has no depedency whatsoever on the United States. They should ideally have two plans. One with US and one with zero US assistance.
Do you think Putin will get desperate enough about falling that he will use a tactical nuke? Desperate sociopaths and such... I'm hoping the oligarchs would put a stop to any thoughts of that.
Highly likely-- They will get rid of him to protect themselves. Because if he drops it, every one of them are done. They lose their money. They will be hunted down and they will be thrown in jail. Cushy ones hate jail. Putin becomes expendable at that point.
Is this post supposed to be satire claiming that future is bright for Ukraine?
As Russia drains, Ukraine grows and builds. Time is on our side!
Slowly, slowly then all at once.
BAE Systems has also pioneered a new way of production of artillery shells (https://www.baesystems.com/en-uk/article/major-breakthroughs-in-uk-munitions-production) and is ramping up so there will be more available via that route as well. Might be enough to bring forward the 10K shells.
In terms of planes, I wonder if the limiting factor is now number of trained pilots.