Run Putin Run. Ukraine is not the enemy you think they are.

How Ukraine Is Dismantling Putin's Protectorate

In February, the Kyiv Post released a video showing Ukrainian special forces interrogating Russian-speaking fighters captured in Sudan. The prisoners identified themselves as members of the Wagner Group, the notorious mercenary organization.

In the footage, Ukrainian special forces soldier questions one of the captives: "Where are you from, and why did you come to Sudan?"

"We are from the Wagner private military company," the Russian mercenary responds. "[We came here] to overthrow the local government."

Yes.

This is why the Kremlin has its troops in Africa. Either you overthrow the government, trigger unrest, offer support to one side in the fight, or do whatever the heck that is needed to make sure that people are dying, people are fleeing and you take control of the restive region.

Africa is a treasure trove of natural resources, playing a crucial role in global markets. The continent is rich in minerals, including gold, diamonds, and platinum, with South Africa, Ghana, Botswana, and the Democratic Republic of Congo being key producers.

It holds around 30% of the world's mineral reserves, including critical resources like cobalt, used in batteries, and chromium, essential for stainless steel production. Its vast reserves of iron ore, copper, and bauxite fuel industrial growth worldwide.

A destablized mineral rich region does sound like the kind of place you will find the Kremlin in.

Yevgeny Prigozhin’s operations in Africa, primarily through the Wagner Group, spanned across numerous countries. Wagner provided security services to regimes in nations like the Central African Republic, Sudan, Libya, and Mali, often propping up authoritarian leaders in exchange for lucrative resource deals.

These operations extended to controlling gold and diamond mines in CAR and Sudan, managing logistics and smuggling routes, and leveraging disinformation campaigns to sway public opinion and election outcomes in favor of pro-Russian governments. Prigozhin’s network became a critical tool for advancing Moscow’s geopolitical agenda in Africa, undermining Western influence while reaping massive financial rewards through exploitation of the continent’s abundant resources. They successfully pushed France out of Mali.

Estimates place Wagner’s African operations at more than a billion dollars. By 2022, Russia accounted for 40% of arms sales to Africa, surpassing China. Minerals, arms, and cash for Russia; migrants for Europe. There was little for Putin to lose and a lot more to gain. He was just scratching the surface of Africa's potential.

There were only three nations in the world that could have stopped Putin from fully exploiting Africa’s chaos: the United Kingdom, France, and the United States. But all three were too consumed by internal political struggles, partly stoked by Putin, to intervene. Everything was going according to plan for Putin—until Ukraine decided to choke the expanding empire.

When Ukraine’s spy chief, Kyrylo Budanov, said last year that Russians would be targeted anywhere in the world, I thought he was referring to high-profile, Mossad-style hits. Ukraine had something else in mind: they went after Russian operations in Africa.

• “The Syrian rebels who swept to power in Damascus last weekend received drones and other support from Ukrainian intelligence operatives”, according to the Washington Post.

• On 27 July 2024, Ukraine helped rebels in northern Mali take out 84 Wagner fighters and 47 Malian soldiers.

• Ukrainian special forces are operating in Sudan in support of the country’s army against Russian Wagner mercenaries aligned with the rebel Rapid Support Forces (RSF).

In August, the BBC called Ukraine's operations in Africa an "own goal," and Al Jazeera claimed Ukraine is "losing the plot in Africa." Well, let them read what the Institute for the Study of War said yesterday about Ukraine's impact.

The rapid collapse of the Assad regime in Syria – a regime that the Kremlin helped prop up since 2015 – is a strategic political defeat for Moscow and has thrown the Kremlin into a crisis as it seeks to retain its strategic military basing in Syria. Russia's inability or decision to not reinforce Assad's regime as the Syrian opposition offensive made rapid gains throughout the country will also hurt Russia's credibility as a reliable and effective security partner throughout the world, which will in turn negatively affect Putin's ability to garner support throughout the world for his desired multipolar world.

Ukraine is stretched thin on resources, constantly battling to sustain its defense and recruit the next soldier. So why divert time and energy to counter Russian operations in Africa? The answer lies in efficiency. Disrupting Russian efforts in Africa doesn’t demand vast resources—Ukraine isn’t deploying thousands of troops or tens of thousands of drones.

If, as speculated, fewer than a hundred soldiers and a few hundred drones are involved, the cost is minimal compared to the strategic gains. And if Ukraine denies its presence, preserving plausible deniability, the investment becomes even more advantageous.

The results already speak for themselves, don’t they? Russia's defeat in Syria has made headlines, to the point where Donald Trump mocked Russian military operations on social media. This severely weakens Putin’s position at the negotiating table. He is no longer the leader with overseas bases dictating terms to the world but a leader now pleading with Syrian rebels to leave Russian bases alone.

Russia’s inability to intervene and protect its investments in Syria and Assad sends a chilling message to African warlords and dictators: Russia lacks the power to help them if things go wrong.

Europe’s troubles won’t end without stemming the flow of migrants from Africa and the Middle East. No Western country is in a position to counter Russian operations in Africa, which lie at the root of global migration. Putin is destabilizing Africa, and Ukraine is destabilizing Putin’s operations there.

Sometimes you can’t break the wheel of an empire. Sometimes, you don’t have to. Just loosen the screws, and the wheels will come off on their own.

Just ask the Kremlin about Syria.