“Because here’s the truth: Putin is no longer a strongman—he’s a gambler with fewer chips and thinning cash, sweating every new round of sanctions. His empire is one oil shock, a few Saudi decisions, a string of missed payments, and a handful of oligarch betrayals away from collapse. Hit him in a compressed window, and the economy will topple.”
Great news Shankar, and I agree with Dr. Antelek; we don’t need no stinking MSM when we have great knowledgeable and reliable sources like you.
That said, on the bright side for Putin, he still could tap into his $500 billion to a trillion he’s managed to appropriate from the Russian economy into his personal coffers, so…….Just saying….:)
Masterful game theory analysis of Putin‘s nuke threat – thank you Shankar!
Question: were there people on Biden‘s national security council who made similar points? Were they overruled by Jake Sullivan and Co.? Or Biden himself? NSC staff are notoriously brainy, and grand strategy and game theory are among their key strengths. I’m really curious about whether thinking like this surfaced there, only to be ignored and/or suppressed.
Perhaps the most important causes were 1. Barack Obama‘s failure to enforce his red line in Syria, and the Western silence on the face of Putin’s earlier aggressions . These combined to convince him that the United States would do nothing to stop as expansion
2. The fact that Hillary Clinton was not president, because she’s tougher and probably smarter than any of these men.
3. Jake Sullivan being allowed anywhere within 100 miles of Washington or Delaware.
We've been describing Russia as being on the brink of collapse for almost four years now, and yet nothing ever really happens. I believe this narrative is harmful to us, because it leads us to underestimate the enemy — making us think they are weaker and less capable than they truly are.
For years, Europeans and Americans have imposed sanctions, and it's well known that sanctions take a long time to have a tangible effect. The deterioration of Russia’s financial health is accelerating, yes — but it is still far from collapse.
Unfortunately, we cannot afford to take this situation lightly. On the contrary, this is exactly the time when we must be more vigilant than ever. The Luhansk region is completely under Russian control, and they are not far from securing Donetsk as well. Putin may be aiming to fully occupy these two oblasts and then stop, presenting this as a "victory" to his domestic audience.
We cannot allow Ukraine to lose these last 6,000 square kilometers. We must make Russia pay the highest possible price for every inch of land. Now is the time to strengthen Ukraine and sap as many Russian resources as possible.
Not once I have written that their economy will collapse. They are getting there slowly. Even now, it is right there.....
"Hit him in a compressed window, and the economy will topple. Stretch it out, and the limp will grow more visible."
......
The daily cash flow and the 144 million market. China and India support will keep them afloat. But what is happening right now is.. they dont have the freedom to spend. That is gone. They need to cut spending, with inflation and a recession. That is stagflation. No country has ever faced the kind of economic problems Russia is facing. So no one can predict how this will move.
Threatening "secondary sanctions" if China continues buying Russian oil is a none-threat. Unless Orange wants to use that as a roundabout way to tariff China more. That will just fuck over Americans.
All very good news. Better than I thought. I know oligarchs would flee if the walls came crashing down, but I understood that Putin arrested or stopped at least one oligarch who was in process of doing just that. Will he not try to stop them forcibly?
If I read this right, what was officially reported as (Russian) National Wealth Fund liquid assets fell from Dec 2023 to Dec 2024 by 2.2 trillion rubles and from Dec 2024 to May 2025 by about another trillion rubles. That’s (surprisingly, despite the serious cuts in support for the real economy that Shankar has reported) a near-constant rate of emptying the coffers if inflation is not taken into account. If inflation is taken into account, the rate of outflow has decreased somewhat in terms of purchasing power, but still: If they continue like this, they’re on track to run into a severe fiscal crisis at some time between around 9 months and 15 months from now.
I wouldn’t expect them to be able to aggressively cut non-military state spending without making lots and lots of ordinary Russians suffer quite severely. So far the state has been able to effectively suppress criticism of the military aggression in Ukraine. I am not able to predict whether that might change when more people in Russia’s heartland suffer hunger because the country uses most of its remaining resources on a terroristic “special military operation”.
90% sure the taco will find a way to help Putin. There will be a lot of smoke and mirrors, but the USA will not tighten sanctions on Russia, they may even find a way to ease them. I hope I am wrong.
And a political observation: autocratic governments are on the ropes all over the world. Shared goals of democratic alliances are prevailing.
If you were an alien entity who investigates Earth’s socioeconomic strategies, which one seems to work?
Fuck em all.
A heartfelt reply.
Please tell us how you really feel!…:)
Haha. No. Don't get me there.
“Because here’s the truth: Putin is no longer a strongman—he’s a gambler with fewer chips and thinning cash, sweating every new round of sanctions. His empire is one oil shock, a few Saudi decisions, a string of missed payments, and a handful of oligarch betrayals away from collapse. Hit him in a compressed window, and the economy will topple.”
Great news Shankar, and I agree with Dr. Antelek; we don’t need no stinking MSM when we have great knowledgeable and reliable sources like you.
That said, on the bright side for Putin, he still could tap into his $500 billion to a trillion he’s managed to appropriate from the Russian economy into his personal coffers, so…….Just saying….:)
They are all locked in the western world. Can't move. He is stuck.
Masterful game theory analysis of Putin‘s nuke threat – thank you Shankar!
Question: were there people on Biden‘s national security council who made similar points? Were they overruled by Jake Sullivan and Co.? Or Biden himself? NSC staff are notoriously brainy, and grand strategy and game theory are among their key strengths. I’m really curious about whether thinking like this surfaced there, only to be ignored and/or suppressed.
Sullivan knew how to play into Biden’s fears. He was the root cause.
Perhaps the most important causes were 1. Barack Obama‘s failure to enforce his red line in Syria, and the Western silence on the face of Putin’s earlier aggressions . These combined to convince him that the United States would do nothing to stop as expansion
2. The fact that Hillary Clinton was not president, because she’s tougher and probably smarter than any of these men.
3. Jake Sullivan being allowed anywhere within 100 miles of Washington or Delaware.
We've been describing Russia as being on the brink of collapse for almost four years now, and yet nothing ever really happens. I believe this narrative is harmful to us, because it leads us to underestimate the enemy — making us think they are weaker and less capable than they truly are.
For years, Europeans and Americans have imposed sanctions, and it's well known that sanctions take a long time to have a tangible effect. The deterioration of Russia’s financial health is accelerating, yes — but it is still far from collapse.
Unfortunately, we cannot afford to take this situation lightly. On the contrary, this is exactly the time when we must be more vigilant than ever. The Luhansk region is completely under Russian control, and they are not far from securing Donetsk as well. Putin may be aiming to fully occupy these two oblasts and then stop, presenting this as a "victory" to his domestic audience.
We cannot allow Ukraine to lose these last 6,000 square kilometers. We must make Russia pay the highest possible price for every inch of land. Now is the time to strengthen Ukraine and sap as many Russian resources as possible.
glory to heroes
Nope.
Not once I have written that their economy will collapse. They are getting there slowly. Even now, it is right there.....
"Hit him in a compressed window, and the economy will topple. Stretch it out, and the limp will grow more visible."
......
The daily cash flow and the 144 million market. China and India support will keep them afloat. But what is happening right now is.. they dont have the freedom to spend. That is gone. They need to cut spending, with inflation and a recession. That is stagflation. No country has ever faced the kind of economic problems Russia is facing. So no one can predict how this will move.
Jay in Kyiv provides very good economic updates re Russia. Bluesky and utube.
Thank you Shankar … powerful stuff.
Trump seems to have taken up your baton and is threatening India with 50% import duty unless they stop buying Russian oil! Your analysis is faultless.
Threatening "secondary sanctions" if China continues buying Russian oil is a none-threat. Unless Orange wants to use that as a roundabout way to tariff China more. That will just fuck over Americans.
Trump is threatening India, not China, while Shankar speaks of business companies not whole nations.
Thank you Shankar. Good News written beautifully. SQUEEZE! Putins been in our lives so long it would be wonderful to have him pushed out.
And the current Regime is doing the same thing. Increasing the budget for ICE and stealing money from other programs
Trump is trying hard to cause a recession in the US which would crah the oil price. Three-dimensional chess!
Lol. Sadly it helps too.
All very good news. Better than I thought. I know oligarchs would flee if the walls came crashing down, but I understood that Putin arrested or stopped at least one oligarch who was in process of doing just that. Will he not try to stop them forcibly?
He nationalized his assets. Good for a few months. Then it will be the next guy
And as John Irving write in the Hotel New Hampshire: Keep passing those open windows.
Do all the states around the world backing their currency with gold?
What states would be interested to buy gold from Russia? And is there a fixed price for gold? My questions for Shankar or audience today.
China. And moving gold around the world is a lot easier than moving oil.
If I read this right, what was officially reported as (Russian) National Wealth Fund liquid assets fell from Dec 2023 to Dec 2024 by 2.2 trillion rubles and from Dec 2024 to May 2025 by about another trillion rubles. That’s (surprisingly, despite the serious cuts in support for the real economy that Shankar has reported) a near-constant rate of emptying the coffers if inflation is not taken into account. If inflation is taken into account, the rate of outflow has decreased somewhat in terms of purchasing power, but still: If they continue like this, they’re on track to run into a severe fiscal crisis at some time between around 9 months and 15 months from now.
Yes. But they are aggressively cutting state spending. Not sure how this is all going to play out. They are inside stagflation.
I wouldn’t expect them to be able to aggressively cut non-military state spending without making lots and lots of ordinary Russians suffer quite severely. So far the state has been able to effectively suppress criticism of the military aggression in Ukraine. I am not able to predict whether that might change when more people in Russia’s heartland suffer hunger because the country uses most of its remaining resources on a terroristic “special military operation”.
Wasn't it Napoleon who said that a country is only three missed meals away from revolution? 🤔
Squeeze, squeeze, squeeze.
90% sure the taco will find a way to help Putin. There will be a lot of smoke and mirrors, but the USA will not tighten sanctions on Russia, they may even find a way to ease them. I hope I am wrong.
yes keep squeesing until the pips jump
Keep in mind, that declining oil revenues was a major factor in the collapse of the Soviet Union.
Good news!🇺🇦