This is an outstanding sub stack channel! Shankar Narayan is always so on point! The comments left by people here are intelligent and thoughtful. Whenever I share what Shankar has said,I always tell people to read the whole thing- to absorb what is being said. I tell them to keep an open mind and truly consider how one thing relates to another. It seems I’m having a little bit of a hard time with some of the people I’m trying to share this channel with. I intend to keep trying.
The USA is concerned about what happens to Russia when Putin falls and what happens to Russia’s nuclear weapons.
My concern is that the world cannot be nuclear blackmailed. Otherwise, any rogue state could say ‘I’ve got nuclear weapons, now give me the world’. The answer to that is obviously no.
The USA pro-Ukraine population, which is of considerable size and in the morally correct position, can’t wait for the total fall of Putin. What happens to Russia is Russia’s problem - and will be another opening of a window of time when that destructive national ideology will have an opportunity to realign and finally fit peacefully into the rest of the world. Once Russia’s nuclear weapons are removed from minds like Putin’s, in a country, or more than one country, where the population will be digging out from poverty and oppressive economic decline, there is a chance that they will discover that they aren’t really needed !! That chance will not arrive before Putin falls.
The narrative of the power of nuclear weapons to blackmail is in the process of being shredded by Ukraine. In the process of fighting like hell for their sovereignty and the right to feel secure in their borders, they have thoroughly ignored the nuclear blackmail threats ostensibly held by Russia; and those threats, for them, are now empty and fully evaporated to nothing. The USA, on the other hand, (both the timid and the pro-Putin faction) with it’s enormous nuclear arsenal is the entity that HAS submitted to the nuclear saber rattling, by withholding support to Ukraine - and thereby ensuring the survivability of the use of nuclear threats as a diplomatic force in the future.
Suspect that options 2,3 & 4 are real possibilities in the not too distant future. Putin has always portrayed himself as a strong man who brings stability, in return the Russian people have accepted oppression as the pay off. However Ukraine's recent strikes keeping Mother Russia have shown that stability to be a fragile thing.
Your instinct is probably right. Gabbard just set the stage for it right. Putin stares at defeat, rattles the nuclear sabre. The entire admin turns into White House spokeshouse, and then say for the interest of the MAGA world we have to stop corrupt Ukraine, and as a result we will play our last card. And that card would most likely be useless by then.
So, Ukraine needs to model this American disaster response and start working their contigency plans.
That would be an instant justification for an impeachment and treason case against Trump the Traitor! Plus an immediate change of EVERY nuclear code we have!
Russia's nuclear "sabre rattling" has been an effective tool in so much as it has restrained western...and especially US, aid over the course of this conflict. But one can only "cry wolf" so many times before it loses potency. Quite frankly, at this point I am more concerned with entrusting the nuclear codes to an unhinged Trump than to Medvedev's drunken threats. There is always the question of how capable are most of Russia's nukes. Some reports have postulated that many of them are in various states of disrepair. Nuclear components must be maintained and upgraded periodically to ensure their effective use. It is likely that some of Russia's nuclear weapons are not useable. However, it is also likely that some of them are, particularly those that are sea-based (Russia's SSBN's). The real threat right now is centered on Trump. His obvious inclination to side with Putin means that Russia could be fairly confident that if they used a tactical nuclear weapon...even in a demonstrative role...against Ukraine, that Europe (lacking the threat of US support) would be constrained in their response (This, despite the French/British nuclear capabilities)...even in a conventional sense.
Several weeks ago there were reports that Ukraine had hacked into Russia's nuclear programs to the extent of identifying command bunkers and locations of launch and storage facilities. How deep they were able to penetrate is, quite obviously, classifiedSome thoughts:
and how much they shared (particularly with the US) is unknown. However, the fact they made it public has to have introduced serious doubt in Russian political and military circles as to how compromised...and thereby useable...their nuclear weapons are.
Ukraine has always been aware of Russia's nuclear capabilities, even if much reduced from Cold War levels. Their ability to penetrate Russian military, intelligence and political infrastucture could mean that they also have "sleeper" agents in place to give warning or even sabotage any real Russian attempt to use a nuclear weapon. (hopefully, we won't have to find out!).
Nuclear "gamesmanship" has been a component of "Big Power" competition since the first detonation at Alamagordo in 1945. As long as these weapons are in existence (and now spreading to minor powers) we are fated to to see this kind of nuclear "blackmail" strategy being used to accomplish geopolitical goals. Unfortunately, there is no end in sight.
But to play devil’s advocate what of the lack of patriot systems to protect against the recent increased pace of Russian missile attacks on civilian targets? This is going to get worse before it gets better.
I do agree that financially Russia is increasingly strained, but so is Ukraine in not just economic terms but a much smaller population. The question is what gives first? Now that Ukraine can hit deep into Russia is helpful, but is it too little too late?
The advantage Ukraine has is 1) This is truly existential and they will continue the fight no matter what. 2) They have adapted and innovated better and faster than Russia. 3) Europe is finally waking up and Germany is fully in the game to the extent they can be now.
Yes. Patriot interceptors will become an issue. Europe has to manage that. There are levers they can pull to keep them flowing. Germany has to keep sending the IRIS-T air-defense units, which they have been doing. It is almost a regular event now. I think Germany sends everything they are producing (no data here, just assumption).
Number no idea. Germany stopped releasing data. But effectiveness, they are as good as any. Range 40kms, that is where the hiccup is. It is a medium range system. But Germany has a robust missile production.
Saturation. you load up a lot of mid range units across Ukraine can be one way to address it.
Still, you need to keep those patriots and keep supplying them. no way out of that.
Ukraine has the motivation necessary for perseverance. It's likely that a source of this motivation is the Holodomor - engineered by Stalin, and appropriately echoed by Stalin's disciple, Putin. To be able to win a war, one must understand the enemy.
Ukraine understands Putin.
Putin, on the other hand, fails to understand Ukraine. Nazis? Nope. Putin in effect is waring against an enemy that does not exist. So victory can only come if Ukraine surrenders. This is not going to happen.
While Europe has begun doing much, it needs to do more. Handing Ukraine frozen Russian assets would be another blow to Russia. This would be a financial slap to Putin, and enhance the sense that Putin's goals are even more unaffordable. It would also hand Ukraine a valuable negotiatable good.
Ukraine can use some of these assets to enhance its weapons manufacturing and economic recovery efforts. More critically, Ukraine can put the assets on a calendar. The calendar will hold a Ukrainian "return" policy. Every week Putin fails to agree to a cease fire, Ukraine lops $10 billion off the total and spends it on Ukraine's needs. If Putin agrees to a cease fire, Ukraine will return $5 billion of the assets to Russia, every month that the ceasefire holds. Every 2 weeks, Ukraine will use these assets to purchase drones, or whatever, from China. (Schedules, tied to budgets, illuminate priorities.)
Mostly this assets approach will enrage Putin, and drive a bit of wedge between Xi and Putin. The existing wedge, personified by North Korea's Kim leaning into his relationship with Russia, is a sore spot for Xi. The upshot of such a series of moves would demonstrate that not only can Putin not move in Ukraine, necessary relationships Putin relies on can be manipulated by Ukraine. Amplifying Putin's economic emasculation, in this way, is worth it.
Speaking on understanding, Trump's approach to Putin's War represents a provocation to all parties who happen to be paying attention. Trump's belief that he "understands" Putin, merely illustrates that Trump does not understand Putin. Handing Putin critical negotiating assets prior to starting said negotiations, painted Trump, indelibly, as the amateur at the table. Appointing Witkoff cemented this perception.
Trump's self-made role in the Ukraine war is as a diminishing disrupter. This much is understood by Ukraine, China, Russia, and even by Europe. Trump's only real card left to play is by withdrawing US intelligence inputs. This will be a sad day for Americans. It may be a Liberation Day for Ukraine and for Europe. Putin will continue killing until he cannot do so any longer. This timeline is likely as much in Xi's hands as it is for Putin.
Xi, due to his engineering the collapse of China's real estate markets, and a drain on china's middle class, plus his failed "export-led" growth policy is carrying much baggage into 2025. At some point an Autocrat has to demonstrate useful decisiveness or risk "demotion". Xi's threats to Taiwan tend to place his untested armed forces at terrible risk, and threaten to undermine his economic "policies" even more so.
Putin may soon be allowed to gift China territory Russia took centuries ago. Xi may use this to temper "nationalist" sentiment about needing to "take Taiwan". While Putin may not appreciate the opportunity, such opportunities are what Putin has been building towards since he demonstrated - by persisting Russia's worship of Tzars and Oligarchs, and by invading Ukraine - what Autocrats cannot afford to demonstrate but always do: incompetence.
My favorite mystery to ponder is how the dynamic between Xi and Putin is in reality rather than what we see in public. I’m convinced Xi is more of a threat to Putin than anyone else in the world, and that Xi is manipulating Putin into exile or prison. Despite the public show of allyship and supplies, I think Xi is actually setting himself up for a total if not partial conquering of Russia. I’m not sure I want to live to see that day arrive!
I have long believed that Jake Sullivan, whether his motivation is fear or something underhanded has been the principal source of restraint of Ukraine against Russia, particularly after it was definitively shown that Russian military forces were more paper tiger than unstoppable military force.
Certainly fear about nuclear high jinx is well placed but MAD still applies in this world, especially when one objectively considers the well understood state of decay of Russia’s nuclear inventory.
Just an amazing jolt of information not coming from anywhere else that I’ve seen. Thank you for keeping us informed on one of the most significant world events happening now. Most are reporting the non-events happening in LA for the tv-reality set.
The administration sucks eggs in a big way Their actions are despicable. Phillips P. O’Brien had an article today looking at ways in which the U.S. might be helping Russia actively. I have thought so for a long time, but the re-routing of the drones persuaded me this was malevolent work.
Is Putin putting out fairly serious force now to persuade the U.S. he is winning? I long to see him in a downward spiral as you outline.
He cannot avoid the contraction. It is already underway. He is fully dependent on Trump to rescue him. As long as Europe keeps doing what it has been doing for the last three months, I dont see any problem. I just hope they send those promised jets. They still havent done it.
Many believe that Trump protects Putin because a) he loves authoritarian strong men; b) he believes the world should be carved into spheres of influence, and their leaders (him, Putin, Xi Jinping) shouldn't interfere within the others' spheres; c) Putin is blackmailing him; d) any combination of the first three. But if Trump's attitude is identical to Biden's before him, another explanation is needed. What do you think it is?
No. I think at some point the pentagon took a turn in favor of Putin (refusing to stop putin= favoring putin) under the Obama administration and since then the arc has been very clear and in the same direction. Each admin does the same thing with different flavor. No difference. The admin cannot be trusted anymore.
Interesting point, hadn't thought about that. Obama's pivot to SE Asia. Invasion of Georgia about which nothing was done or said. Syria red lines. All consistent with this thesis.
Putinization of US Gov might have started right after the Iraq debacle and the defeat of the NeoCons.
Shankar’s recent note about Putin demanding NATO’s removal from the adjoining Baltic countries suggests that Trump and Putin have already discussed and agreed mutual ‘spheres of influence’ (consider Trump’s antipathy towards NATO). Putin likely has the dirt on Trump’s previous Russian misadventures, so fear of blackmail is surely playing a part.
Team Biden was just fearful of nuclear escalation. He was way too fearful of what happens to Russia after Putin. They were overconfident that they could manage the escalation ladder. Their best opening came when North Korea supplied the weapons, but they wrote the red lines and quietly erased them. That’s where the final license for Putin to go hard came.
I think if his team had stepped in during that opening, there was a small chance for peace. But nevertheless, as long as Jake was inside that team, the odds of catastrophic failure always superseded small successes. If you want to know how competent he is, you need look no further than his execution in Afghanistan.
Putin has used the benefits of the free market. But gradually ruzzia is becoming a planned economy. And planned economies doesn't work, because it is impossible to plan everything. Which will leads to shortages, missmanagement. Add to this a rampant corruption which infiltrates everything, and you have a country that is barely functioning. Expect turmoil. Expect people falling out of windows. Expech chaos.
Russia may disgust me more with it's war crimes and murderous strikes on an innocent country in Ukraine but nothing scares me more than the totalitarian Wannabees in the USA. They are much more dangerous to the world. It is a shame the vast majority of normal Americans do not yet see this but if things continue it is the USA we need to fear most. If they start land grabs as The Orangina President wishes then catastrophe will follow.
So one thing I think you have missed is that through out the 20th and into the 21st century, the US keeps propping up Russia. 1917, 1946 and again several times in the 1990s and early 2000s. This is across all admins.
My hypothesis is this is an out growth of the Monroe Doctrine. US has used Russia to counter balance Europe in order to reduce and then contain Europe so it wouldn't rival US power.
My hope is that US is not in a position to prop up Russia any more.
This is an outstanding sub stack channel! Shankar Narayan is always so on point! The comments left by people here are intelligent and thoughtful. Whenever I share what Shankar has said,I always tell people to read the whole thing- to absorb what is being said. I tell them to keep an open mind and truly consider how one thing relates to another. It seems I’m having a little bit of a hard time with some of the people I’m trying to share this channel with. I intend to keep trying.
Thank you, Char Grant.
You are most welcome Shankar Narayan. I am speaking the truth!
Agreed! Keep sharing!
Bev Ferguson, you can be assured that I will continue to share!
The USA is concerned about what happens to Russia when Putin falls and what happens to Russia’s nuclear weapons.
My concern is that the world cannot be nuclear blackmailed. Otherwise, any rogue state could say ‘I’ve got nuclear weapons, now give me the world’. The answer to that is obviously no.
An addendum;
The USA pro-Ukraine population, which is of considerable size and in the morally correct position, can’t wait for the total fall of Putin. What happens to Russia is Russia’s problem - and will be another opening of a window of time when that destructive national ideology will have an opportunity to realign and finally fit peacefully into the rest of the world. Once Russia’s nuclear weapons are removed from minds like Putin’s, in a country, or more than one country, where the population will be digging out from poverty and oppressive economic decline, there is a chance that they will discover that they aren’t really needed !! That chance will not arrive before Putin falls.
The narrative of the power of nuclear weapons to blackmail is in the process of being shredded by Ukraine. In the process of fighting like hell for their sovereignty and the right to feel secure in their borders, they have thoroughly ignored the nuclear blackmail threats ostensibly held by Russia; and those threats, for them, are now empty and fully evaporated to nothing. The USA, on the other hand, (both the timid and the pro-Putin faction) with it’s enormous nuclear arsenal is the entity that HAS submitted to the nuclear saber rattling, by withholding support to Ukraine - and thereby ensuring the survivability of the use of nuclear threats as a diplomatic force in the future.
What will the oligarchs do if Putin totally fizzles? There are (to naive me) a few possibilities:
1. Russia folds,
2. Putin is defenestrated and replaced by someone motivated by survival,
3. Putin folds to Ukraine’s demands, THEN defenestrates,
4. Trump tries to escape to Russia, takes Putin by the hand, then defenestrates,
5. China cuts off Putin without a ruble,
6. Nuclear holocaust,
7. Trump gives Putin $1 Trillion.
All sounds lousy for the Manchurian Canteloupe and Vodka Puddin’, doesn’t it?
Manchurian Cantaloupe. Of all the bad news of the day, I still nearly snorted my coffee. Thanks!
Hahaha.
Suspect that options 2,3 & 4 are real possibilities in the not too distant future. Putin has always portrayed himself as a strong man who brings stability, in return the Russian people have accepted oppression as the pay off. However Ukraine's recent strikes keeping Mother Russia have shown that stability to be a fragile thing.
Your possibility 4 sounds good to me — LOL!!!
(Am I allowed to make the choice?)
Your instinct is probably right. Gabbard just set the stage for it right. Putin stares at defeat, rattles the nuclear sabre. The entire admin turns into White House spokeshouse, and then say for the interest of the MAGA world we have to stop corrupt Ukraine, and as a result we will play our last card. And that card would most likely be useless by then.
So, Ukraine needs to model this American disaster response and start working their contigency plans.
One from Column A and one from Column B!
I like#4, Steve
😃👍
Sorry, I do not allow conspiracy theories. Please refrain.
That would be an instant justification for an impeachment and treason case against Trump the Traitor! Plus an immediate change of EVERY nuclear code we have!
Does any proof exist?
That sounds like it might be one conspiracy too far …
Some thoughts:
Russia's nuclear "sabre rattling" has been an effective tool in so much as it has restrained western...and especially US, aid over the course of this conflict. But one can only "cry wolf" so many times before it loses potency. Quite frankly, at this point I am more concerned with entrusting the nuclear codes to an unhinged Trump than to Medvedev's drunken threats. There is always the question of how capable are most of Russia's nukes. Some reports have postulated that many of them are in various states of disrepair. Nuclear components must be maintained and upgraded periodically to ensure their effective use. It is likely that some of Russia's nuclear weapons are not useable. However, it is also likely that some of them are, particularly those that are sea-based (Russia's SSBN's). The real threat right now is centered on Trump. His obvious inclination to side with Putin means that Russia could be fairly confident that if they used a tactical nuclear weapon...even in a demonstrative role...against Ukraine, that Europe (lacking the threat of US support) would be constrained in their response (This, despite the French/British nuclear capabilities)...even in a conventional sense.
Several weeks ago there were reports that Ukraine had hacked into Russia's nuclear programs to the extent of identifying command bunkers and locations of launch and storage facilities. How deep they were able to penetrate is, quite obviously, classifiedSome thoughts:
and how much they shared (particularly with the US) is unknown. However, the fact they made it public has to have introduced serious doubt in Russian political and military circles as to how compromised...and thereby useable...their nuclear weapons are.
Ukraine has always been aware of Russia's nuclear capabilities, even if much reduced from Cold War levels. Their ability to penetrate Russian military, intelligence and political infrastucture could mean that they also have "sleeper" agents in place to give warning or even sabotage any real Russian attempt to use a nuclear weapon. (hopefully, we won't have to find out!).
Nuclear "gamesmanship" has been a component of "Big Power" competition since the first detonation at Alamagordo in 1945. As long as these weapons are in existence (and now spreading to minor powers) we are fated to to see this kind of nuclear "blackmail" strategy being used to accomplish geopolitical goals. Unfortunately, there is no end in sight.
I do hope your assessment is right.
But to play devil’s advocate what of the lack of patriot systems to protect against the recent increased pace of Russian missile attacks on civilian targets? This is going to get worse before it gets better.
I do agree that financially Russia is increasingly strained, but so is Ukraine in not just economic terms but a much smaller population. The question is what gives first? Now that Ukraine can hit deep into Russia is helpful, but is it too little too late?
The advantage Ukraine has is 1) This is truly existential and they will continue the fight no matter what. 2) They have adapted and innovated better and faster than Russia. 3) Europe is finally waking up and Germany is fully in the game to the extent they can be now.
Yes. Patriot interceptors will become an issue. Europe has to manage that. There are levers they can pull to keep them flowing. Germany has to keep sending the IRIS-T air-defense units, which they have been doing. It is almost a regular event now. I think Germany sends everything they are producing (no data here, just assumption).
Do we have good data on the IRIS-T systems (number, effectiveness, etc)?
Number no idea. Germany stopped releasing data. But effectiveness, they are as good as any. Range 40kms, that is where the hiccup is. It is a medium range system. But Germany has a robust missile production.
Saturation. you load up a lot of mid range units across Ukraine can be one way to address it.
Still, you need to keep those patriots and keep supplying them. no way out of that.
Another great post.
Ukraine has the motivation necessary for perseverance. It's likely that a source of this motivation is the Holodomor - engineered by Stalin, and appropriately echoed by Stalin's disciple, Putin. To be able to win a war, one must understand the enemy.
Ukraine understands Putin.
Putin, on the other hand, fails to understand Ukraine. Nazis? Nope. Putin in effect is waring against an enemy that does not exist. So victory can only come if Ukraine surrenders. This is not going to happen.
While Europe has begun doing much, it needs to do more. Handing Ukraine frozen Russian assets would be another blow to Russia. This would be a financial slap to Putin, and enhance the sense that Putin's goals are even more unaffordable. It would also hand Ukraine a valuable negotiatable good.
Ukraine can use some of these assets to enhance its weapons manufacturing and economic recovery efforts. More critically, Ukraine can put the assets on a calendar. The calendar will hold a Ukrainian "return" policy. Every week Putin fails to agree to a cease fire, Ukraine lops $10 billion off the total and spends it on Ukraine's needs. If Putin agrees to a cease fire, Ukraine will return $5 billion of the assets to Russia, every month that the ceasefire holds. Every 2 weeks, Ukraine will use these assets to purchase drones, or whatever, from China. (Schedules, tied to budgets, illuminate priorities.)
Mostly this assets approach will enrage Putin, and drive a bit of wedge between Xi and Putin. The existing wedge, personified by North Korea's Kim leaning into his relationship with Russia, is a sore spot for Xi. The upshot of such a series of moves would demonstrate that not only can Putin not move in Ukraine, necessary relationships Putin relies on can be manipulated by Ukraine. Amplifying Putin's economic emasculation, in this way, is worth it.
Speaking on understanding, Trump's approach to Putin's War represents a provocation to all parties who happen to be paying attention. Trump's belief that he "understands" Putin, merely illustrates that Trump does not understand Putin. Handing Putin critical negotiating assets prior to starting said negotiations, painted Trump, indelibly, as the amateur at the table. Appointing Witkoff cemented this perception.
Trump's self-made role in the Ukraine war is as a diminishing disrupter. This much is understood by Ukraine, China, Russia, and even by Europe. Trump's only real card left to play is by withdrawing US intelligence inputs. This will be a sad day for Americans. It may be a Liberation Day for Ukraine and for Europe. Putin will continue killing until he cannot do so any longer. This timeline is likely as much in Xi's hands as it is for Putin.
Xi, due to his engineering the collapse of China's real estate markets, and a drain on china's middle class, plus his failed "export-led" growth policy is carrying much baggage into 2025. At some point an Autocrat has to demonstrate useful decisiveness or risk "demotion". Xi's threats to Taiwan tend to place his untested armed forces at terrible risk, and threaten to undermine his economic "policies" even more so.
Putin may soon be allowed to gift China territory Russia took centuries ago. Xi may use this to temper "nationalist" sentiment about needing to "take Taiwan". While Putin may not appreciate the opportunity, such opportunities are what Putin has been building towards since he demonstrated - by persisting Russia's worship of Tzars and Oligarchs, and by invading Ukraine - what Autocrats cannot afford to demonstrate but always do: incompetence.
Thank you Shankar. I am cross pollinating articles today. I shared this article on Phillips OBriens Substack you are both on topic together today his article entitled Why I Believe the US Government is Helping Russia Kill Ukrainians https://open.substack.com/pub/phillipspobrien/p/why-i-believe-that-the-us-government?r=fa5ey&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=false
Thank you, Sara
My favorite mystery to ponder is how the dynamic between Xi and Putin is in reality rather than what we see in public. I’m convinced Xi is more of a threat to Putin than anyone else in the world, and that Xi is manipulating Putin into exile or prison. Despite the public show of allyship and supplies, I think Xi is actually setting himself up for a total if not partial conquering of Russia. I’m not sure I want to live to see that day arrive!
I have long believed that Jake Sullivan, whether his motivation is fear or something underhanded has been the principal source of restraint of Ukraine against Russia, particularly after it was definitively shown that Russian military forces were more paper tiger than unstoppable military force.
Certainly fear about nuclear high jinx is well placed but MAD still applies in this world, especially when one objectively considers the well understood state of decay of Russia’s nuclear inventory.
Just an amazing jolt of information not coming from anywhere else that I’ve seen. Thank you for keeping us informed on one of the most significant world events happening now. Most are reporting the non-events happening in LA for the tv-reality set.
The administration sucks eggs in a big way Their actions are despicable. Phillips P. O’Brien had an article today looking at ways in which the U.S. might be helping Russia actively. I have thought so for a long time, but the re-routing of the drones persuaded me this was malevolent work.
Is Putin putting out fairly serious force now to persuade the U.S. he is winning? I long to see him in a downward spiral as you outline.
He cannot avoid the contraction. It is already underway. He is fully dependent on Trump to rescue him. As long as Europe keeps doing what it has been doing for the last three months, I dont see any problem. I just hope they send those promised jets. They still havent done it.
Thanks.
Many believe that Trump protects Putin because a) he loves authoritarian strong men; b) he believes the world should be carved into spheres of influence, and their leaders (him, Putin, Xi Jinping) shouldn't interfere within the others' spheres; c) Putin is blackmailing him; d) any combination of the first three. But if Trump's attitude is identical to Biden's before him, another explanation is needed. What do you think it is?
No. I think at some point the pentagon took a turn in favor of Putin (refusing to stop putin= favoring putin) under the Obama administration and since then the arc has been very clear and in the same direction. Each admin does the same thing with different flavor. No difference. The admin cannot be trusted anymore.
Interesting point, hadn't thought about that. Obama's pivot to SE Asia. Invasion of Georgia about which nothing was done or said. Syria red lines. All consistent with this thesis.
Putinization of US Gov might have started right after the Iraq debacle and the defeat of the NeoCons.
Shankar’s recent note about Putin demanding NATO’s removal from the adjoining Baltic countries suggests that Trump and Putin have already discussed and agreed mutual ‘spheres of influence’ (consider Trump’s antipathy towards NATO). Putin likely has the dirt on Trump’s previous Russian misadventures, so fear of blackmail is surely playing a part.
And Biden?
Team Biden was just fearful of nuclear escalation. He was way too fearful of what happens to Russia after Putin. They were overconfident that they could manage the escalation ladder. Their best opening came when North Korea supplied the weapons, but they wrote the red lines and quietly erased them. That’s where the final license for Putin to go hard came.
I think if his team had stepped in during that opening, there was a small chance for peace. But nevertheless, as long as Jake was inside that team, the odds of catastrophic failure always superseded small successes. If you want to know how competent he is, you need look no further than his execution in Afghanistan.
Kabul evacuation would have caused heads to roll under any normal administration. That's when Biden lost public support.
I’ll leave that aspect for Shankar.
Biden was, at least, critical of Putin so kept him guessing in a way that Trump certainly does not.
Done
Putin has used the benefits of the free market. But gradually ruzzia is becoming a planned economy. And planned economies doesn't work, because it is impossible to plan everything. Which will leads to shortages, missmanagement. Add to this a rampant corruption which infiltrates everything, and you have a country that is barely functioning. Expect turmoil. Expect people falling out of windows. Expech chaos.
Russia may disgust me more with it's war crimes and murderous strikes on an innocent country in Ukraine but nothing scares me more than the totalitarian Wannabees in the USA. They are much more dangerous to the world. It is a shame the vast majority of normal Americans do not yet see this but if things continue it is the USA we need to fear most. If they start land grabs as The Orangina President wishes then catastrophe will follow.
So one thing I think you have missed is that through out the 20th and into the 21st century, the US keeps propping up Russia. 1917, 1946 and again several times in the 1990s and early 2000s. This is across all admins.
My hypothesis is this is an out growth of the Monroe Doctrine. US has used Russia to counter balance Europe in order to reduce and then contain Europe so it wouldn't rival US power.
My hope is that US is not in a position to prop up Russia any more.
Hopefully Russia’s battlefield and economic bleeds will lead to regime collapse for Putin.
Russia threatens use of nuclear weapons but Putin is surely worried about his own annihilation?