One of your most brilliant and well-informed east European posts, Shankar. It makes me hope that European leaders read your column. The numbers you cite for Germany's brigade are too small and slow though, as noted by people below. Poland's military is far more ready, and the alliance with the Baltics more established.
All of this because the delusional Trump regime can't (or won't) understand that Putin is our enemy, and needs to be handed a sound defeat in Ukraine. The kind of defeat that leads to regime collapse, just like the USSR's loss in Afghanistan did so long ago. The US and her allies should be bleeding Russia, not trying to make peace with her.
I would think it would be smart to build up at Suwalki in Poland or maybe Marijampole in Lithuania as well. There needs to be something close to the Belarus border but also some rapid response forces that can come up and hit whatever forces are coming across the boarder from the flank or head on. Polish forces in Suwalki might act as a deterrence for any Russian attacks. Make the units there mobile and FAST so if the shit hits the fan they could be on the road and going either toward Belarus or Kaliningrad in a heartbeat. Lots of mobile artillery would also be smart. Move the artillery every day. Maybe set up a bunch of 'wayside rest stops' along the roads. The mobile artillery is in one this day, another the next day so nobody but their bosses know where they are at any given moment.
If this is the most vulnerable part why hasn’t NATO taken care of it ? Why are American troops not there all these years ? Surely the NATO countries should know if Shanker does ! Can Shanker reply to this if he has time ? Thx
Well, it was a series of mistakes that led to this point. Even when Russia massed its troops along the UKR border Europe did not think invasion was possible. It was only after the Biden administration pulled them up and told them it is coming they even woke up to the reality. If this was the case in Ukraine, the odds of overestimating their deterrence is indeed huge.
To be honest, Lithunia should have moved its capital long time ago. Now it can't be done and here where we are. The introduction of a peace keeping force in Ukraine changes the Russian response calculus and as a result Vilinus will become a high potential target.
There are no long-range air defenses in the entire Baltics. NATO never made a move to properly protect its eastern flank. The time has come to change that.
One main reason NATO did not move to protect baltics was Russian pressure. Dont provoke Putin was a policy. As John McCain once said, by not provoking Putin, they have provoked him.
Absolutely awesome move! And German machine again at work, love it!
As a person born and raised in Czechoslovakia, Kaliningrad/ Konigsberg was always like an ulcer or a wart in that part of the Europe. Russians don’t belong there, it’s a German world.
One of your most brilliant and well-informed east European posts, Shankar. It makes me hope that European leaders read your column. The numbers you cite for Germany's brigade are too small and slow though, as noted by people below. Poland's military is far more ready, and the alliance with the Baltics more established.
All of this because the delusional Trump regime can't (or won't) understand that Putin is our enemy, and needs to be handed a sound defeat in Ukraine. The kind of defeat that leads to regime collapse, just like the USSR's loss in Afghanistan did so long ago. The US and her allies should be bleeding Russia, not trying to make peace with her.
I would think it would be smart to build up at Suwalki in Poland or maybe Marijampole in Lithuania as well. There needs to be something close to the Belarus border but also some rapid response forces that can come up and hit whatever forces are coming across the boarder from the flank or head on. Polish forces in Suwalki might act as a deterrence for any Russian attacks. Make the units there mobile and FAST so if the shit hits the fan they could be on the road and going either toward Belarus or Kaliningrad in a heartbeat. Lots of mobile artillery would also be smart. Move the artillery every day. Maybe set up a bunch of 'wayside rest stops' along the roads. The mobile artillery is in one this day, another the next day so nobody but their bosses know where they are at any given moment.
Shankar! Sorry but you are too explicit in describing what and how Putin can takeover Vilnius!
Sometimes, just because you know something in “great detail” doesn’t meant you have to relay it in “great detail!”
Maybe I’m just paranoid!
Glad to hear Germany is stepping up to protect Europe!
Thanks for your call for them to move faster!
If this is the most vulnerable part why hasn’t NATO taken care of it ? Why are American troops not there all these years ? Surely the NATO countries should know if Shanker does ! Can Shanker reply to this if he has time ? Thx
Well, it was a series of mistakes that led to this point. Even when Russia massed its troops along the UKR border Europe did not think invasion was possible. It was only after the Biden administration pulled them up and told them it is coming they even woke up to the reality. If this was the case in Ukraine, the odds of overestimating their deterrence is indeed huge.
To be honest, Lithunia should have moved its capital long time ago. Now it can't be done and here where we are. The introduction of a peace keeping force in Ukraine changes the Russian response calculus and as a result Vilinus will become a high potential target.
There are no long-range air defenses in the entire Baltics. NATO never made a move to properly protect its eastern flank. The time has come to change that.
One main reason NATO did not move to protect baltics was Russian pressure. Dont provoke Putin was a policy. As John McCain once said, by not provoking Putin, they have provoked him.
Thanks Shanker
Absolutely awesome move! And German machine again at work, love it!
As a person born and raised in Czechoslovakia, Kaliningrad/ Konigsberg was always like an ulcer or a wart in that part of the Europe. Russians don’t belong there, it’s a German world.
Again, brilliant!
Thank you Shankar. I read yesterday about a "drone wall' Is this a defense which can be used to protect Vilnius?https://www.baltictimes.com/estonian_defense_industry_cluster_comes_up_with_baltic_drone_wall_plan/
It needs a lot more than that. They need a strong german presence on the ground, air-defense, and the entire paraphernalia.
Yes yes yes
I too was dismayed at the small amount of troops. Needs to be much faster. Even 1000 by end 2025 is not sufficient. IMO.
Agree. I will keep pushing them to do more.
Even the base in Adazi is small and it has taken years to get that one going.
Once again I hold my breath. What you describe is the obvious route for Russia. So deterrence is essential. I hope Germany is listening.
What do you make of sanctions being lifted so the Russian envoy can come to DC?
That's OK. They are talking anyway.
i do not think that nato in such a situtation would be slow to act
The problem is there is not much time to react in this scenario. It cuts deeply into that.