Thanks Shankar, your newsletter is illuminating. Russia is now the 800 lb ravenous gorilla, that will hopefully crash and burn. However, it doesn’t offer much leeway in terms of a peaceful outcome; at least any time soon.
On the bright side, at least everyone knows what’s at stake, and how all the players are aligned.
America’s role is still confusing. It’s clear Trump will never commit to defending Article 5, putting NATO in a state of perpetual confusion, but at least Europe finally realizes that America isn’t going to be anyone’s White Knight; least of all, its own.
I guess all of us are left in a state of confusion, until this plays out further. TBD!…:)
NATO is all but finished. Russia has changed its economy to a war economy, and footing. They’ve almost completely exhausted their Gold reserves, and their economy is an utter disrepair. They even conscripted another 160,000 Russians into the military, not because they need troops, but because Putin fears domestic unrest at home.
Therefore, Ukraine is Ground Zero for Europe’s future; and they are ramping up their military spending using EU military contractors, leaving Americas Military Industrial Complex in the dust. Intelligence sharing is being undermined, and any trust; completely obliterated.
And if Europe can’t count on the US in NATO, then whatever Trump’s plans are, he’ll receive no help from Europe or NATO, only fierce resistance. So as far as Greenland is concerned, it should be the least of the US’s worries.
Bottom line: It’s a shame how we got here, but it’s clear that our future is looking bleak without any natural alliances; especially Canada and NATO.
Sadly, our history started almost 250 years ago, fighting a mad king, and succeeding thanks to the French and Netherlands. And now, our country is on the decline, thanks to a harebrained, morally bankrupt, and completely UNSTABLE genius; I mean imbecile, who is hell bent on power, and revenge. Oh, the irony!
You repeat Shankar’s article as if you imagine I had not studied it. NATO and Europe will continue and strengthen with or without the United States whose history, although not my own, is of interest to any intelligent observer.
I wasn’t criticizing you, or your comment, and I certainly wasn’t trying to lecture you either.
That said, I have been reading various insights into NATO, from the US and European perspectives, and our alliances, and agreements from many viewpoints and vantage points. And I agree, we all have an interest in understanding each other’s history.
That said, I agree with Shankar on his analysis of the issue, and respect his expertise. However, this idea you profess; that NATO is preventing the US from an invasion of Greenland isn’t really plausible for two reasons.
One: the US already has a military base in Greenland and could essentially take the country of 56k, without much of a fuss; other than NATO criticism and possible retaliatory sanctions.
Two: Trump doesn’t care about alliances or agreements. Do I need to list all the agreements he has unilaterally pulled us out of?
Trump is incapable of understanding agreements even if he cared about them.
Trump knows that invading Greenland would be a deeply humiliating and unpopular move domestically. He thinks he can economically bully Denmark & Canada.
The big unknown for me is still the Russian women. When they have the courage and determination to change things from within. Only they can decide when they have nothing more to lose. Their men are being jailed or sent to the meat grinder, and have been stripped of power. We don’t hear of protests, but imploding is not out of the question.
However, what will happen to regular Russian citizens? Where they will go?
Worked in Dubai on medical assignment, Dubai is already overflowing with Russians. Who else will take them? Czech Republic, my home country is full of Ukrainians and Russians. Hope EU will step up and take some. Any other countries you can think of? Australia, UK? Horrible situation Putin created for his own people!
Tina, idk what is the source of your viewpoint, but Trump has a common sense, is not harming his own people and economy? Well, 8 years of mismanagement by previous administration can’t be fixed in weeks or months but rather years. Can you say that about Putin?
The bet on Trump seems a gamblers "big plan". Putin, sits atop a country that has always "wanted". Putin supercharged this with his autocrat's need for "more". Now, given the economic strife slowly(?) strangling the country, Putin reaches out for Trump. Trump is another autocrat defined by his central desire for "more".
It's unclear whether the "more" Bros will find common ground. If Xi steps in and offers "more" to either of both, all bets are off.
Europe's slow-walking up to their responsibility is maddening. Mobilization is Europe's surest way to obtaining a seat at the table. Minimally, mobilization will change the calculations of the More Bros. Forcing them to visibly deal with a revitalizing Europe may also expose cracks in Bro-think.
Maybe raising their stake in the war's outcome might jar loose some sanity? Handing Ukraine Russian frozen assets might add some additional weight to the scale. $300 billion might even cause Trump to question his alliance with Putin. One can hope.
With Russia's dwindling Sovereign wealth fund, losing access to this cash might trigger some desperation from Putin, and force the More Bros to move before they are ready.
Are we in a state of perpetual war if Russia can’t stand down? That means both trump and putin have to be removed / leave from the world scene. Both are digging in.
It means Putin may open a second front in Europe. Even if his economy collapsed, he needs to preserve what he can of his war machine. He can’t flee, as he is an ICC criminal. He can’t hide, because his people will find him.
From your analysis, he needs to ramp up the war even more. Economic destruction by war is what it sounds like.
I don’t believe any dictator has tried such a stupid strategy of running your economy to fully be fueled by war. It always implodes, and the dictator dies or runs away.
If he can get Krasnov to splinter support for Ukraine, it might work. He’ll gradually take over Ukraine, and use Ukraine’s weapons and food against Europe.
If Ukraine holds the line, he’ll become more desperate. What am I learning is never underestimate the evil an evil person will do. Putin is evil. He’ll do whatever he can to buy time. He is using Iran and North Korea weapons and people for support. Is he demented enough to attack the Baltics?
I'm curious what the tradeoff would be for Russia if Trump eases sanctions (I hope he doesn't and I think it's at best 50/50), but because of the trade war Trump is starting, oil crashes below $40/barrel. That might push the Russian economy of the edge despite any sanctions relief.
My understanding is Europe is staying firm and saying no sanctions relief until Russia pulls out of Ukraine completely. If the US Congress can pass a veto proof sanctions package on Russia of anyone buying Russian oil gets 500% tariffs, game over for Russia.
Spot on. Didn’t know about MeFo bills. I kept reading to see where Russia is, and they are all the way at the end. The US Congress is looking to tariff anyone buying Russian oil. Putin is sacrificing his own people through violence. Ukraine is destroying Russia’s armed forces and oil refineries. What is left of Russia when food is scarce and you need golf carts and donkeys to go into battle?
Russia is screwed. Their demographics were horrible before Putin got a hankering for invading Ukraine and their economy is being held together with tape.
There are far right who say "We need another Hitler" with Trump wanting generals like Hitler's.
Clearly, neither has looked at how that went for Hitler's Germany or Putin's Russia.
Highly illuminating if terrifying. The stakes couldn’t be higher for backing Ukraine. But if Putin needs this war to last essentially for his lifetime, as that is what he is trying to preserve, what can Ukraine do? Can a cordon of sorts be set up around Russia to contain it like the Versailles Treaty or something? Or do we just hope to push until the economy of Russia is destroyed, the gold reserves gone, conscripts fleeing, starvation rampant, no jobs…? Could Trump really pull off a save? Would the Congress allow it? He has already failed to put new tariffs on Russia and that has not gone unnoticed…
That’s why it’s so important for Europe to provide Ukraine with whatever is needed (besides what the Ukrainians can produce themselves) to make continued war-fighting even more politically unsustainable for Russia than the alternatives.
Thanks Shankar, your newsletter is illuminating. Russia is now the 800 lb ravenous gorilla, that will hopefully crash and burn. However, it doesn’t offer much leeway in terms of a peaceful outcome; at least any time soon.
On the bright side, at least everyone knows what’s at stake, and how all the players are aligned.
America’s role is still confusing. It’s clear Trump will never commit to defending Article 5, putting NATO in a state of perpetual confusion, but at least Europe finally realizes that America isn’t going to be anyone’s White Knight; least of all, its own.
I guess all of us are left in a state of confusion, until this plays out further. TBD!…:)
Trump will come up against ‘Article 5’ if he invades Greenland. It is probably preventing him from doing so.
NATO is all but finished. Russia has changed its economy to a war economy, and footing. They’ve almost completely exhausted their Gold reserves, and their economy is an utter disrepair. They even conscripted another 160,000 Russians into the military, not because they need troops, but because Putin fears domestic unrest at home.
Therefore, Ukraine is Ground Zero for Europe’s future; and they are ramping up their military spending using EU military contractors, leaving Americas Military Industrial Complex in the dust. Intelligence sharing is being undermined, and any trust; completely obliterated.
And if Europe can’t count on the US in NATO, then whatever Trump’s plans are, he’ll receive no help from Europe or NATO, only fierce resistance. So as far as Greenland is concerned, it should be the least of the US’s worries.
Bottom line: It’s a shame how we got here, but it’s clear that our future is looking bleak without any natural alliances; especially Canada and NATO.
Sadly, our history started almost 250 years ago, fighting a mad king, and succeeding thanks to the French and Netherlands. And now, our country is on the decline, thanks to a harebrained, morally bankrupt, and completely UNSTABLE genius; I mean imbecile, who is hell bent on power, and revenge. Oh, the irony!
You repeat Shankar’s article as if you imagine I had not studied it. NATO and Europe will continue and strengthen with or without the United States whose history, although not my own, is of interest to any intelligent observer.
I wasn’t criticizing you, or your comment, and I certainly wasn’t trying to lecture you either.
That said, I have been reading various insights into NATO, from the US and European perspectives, and our alliances, and agreements from many viewpoints and vantage points. And I agree, we all have an interest in understanding each other’s history.
That said, I agree with Shankar on his analysis of the issue, and respect his expertise. However, this idea you profess; that NATO is preventing the US from an invasion of Greenland isn’t really plausible for two reasons.
One: the US already has a military base in Greenland and could essentially take the country of 56k, without much of a fuss; other than NATO criticism and possible retaliatory sanctions.
Two: Trump doesn’t care about alliances or agreements. Do I need to list all the agreements he has unilaterally pulled us out of?
NAFTA
Paris Accords
JCPOA
USMCA which replaced NAFTA
Just to name a few…:)
Trump is incapable of understanding agreements even if he cared about them.
Trump knows that invading Greenland would be a deeply humiliating and unpopular move domestically. He thinks he can economically bully Denmark & Canada.
100% agree…:)
I doubt he gives a toss. He doesn’t give a toss about NATO. He seems to think its members weak.
The big unknown for me is still the Russian women. When they have the courage and determination to change things from within. Only they can decide when they have nothing more to lose. Their men are being jailed or sent to the meat grinder, and have been stripped of power. We don’t hear of protests, but imploding is not out of the question.
Some Russian women bravely oppose the Putin regime.
https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-women-protest-husbands-ukraine-war-return/32675045.html
Other Russian women profit from the invasion of Ukraine.
https://www.intellinews.com/russian-women-are-marrying-soldiers-with-the-aim-of-claiming-a-huge-fortune-if-they-die-at-war-374896
It is beautiful to see the crumbling of Russia!
However, what will happen to regular Russian citizens? Where they will go?
Worked in Dubai on medical assignment, Dubai is already overflowing with Russians. Who else will take them? Czech Republic, my home country is full of Ukrainians and Russians. Hope EU will step up and take some. Any other countries you can think of? Australia, UK? Horrible situation Putin created for his own people!
Do we need to take them?
Why shouldn't they stick with the task of fixing Russia in the aftermath?
It’s unlivable, toxic country. But whoever wants to stay, I guess they will stay. Younger and able people will make it somewhere.
Trump’s hero. He is doing the same as Putin to America. They are both homicidal maniacs.
Tina, idk what is the source of your viewpoint, but Trump has a common sense, is not harming his own people and economy? Well, 8 years of mismanagement by previous administration can’t be fixed in weeks or months but rather years. Can you say that about Putin?
Your typical apples to oranges case.
To each her own opinion.
The bet on Trump seems a gamblers "big plan". Putin, sits atop a country that has always "wanted". Putin supercharged this with his autocrat's need for "more". Now, given the economic strife slowly(?) strangling the country, Putin reaches out for Trump. Trump is another autocrat defined by his central desire for "more".
It's unclear whether the "more" Bros will find common ground. If Xi steps in and offers "more" to either of both, all bets are off.
Europe's slow-walking up to their responsibility is maddening. Mobilization is Europe's surest way to obtaining a seat at the table. Minimally, mobilization will change the calculations of the More Bros. Forcing them to visibly deal with a revitalizing Europe may also expose cracks in Bro-think.
Maybe raising their stake in the war's outcome might jar loose some sanity? Handing Ukraine Russian frozen assets might add some additional weight to the scale. $300 billion might even cause Trump to question his alliance with Putin. One can hope.
With Russia's dwindling Sovereign wealth fund, losing access to this cash might trigger some desperation from Putin, and force the More Bros to move before they are ready.
Could be worse?
Slava Ukraini!
The EU will not lift sanctions even if Trump does and indications are he will not until a cease fire is enacted ( not just declared )
Are we in a state of perpetual war if Russia can’t stand down? That means both trump and putin have to be removed / leave from the world scene. Both are digging in.
It means Putin may open a second front in Europe. Even if his economy collapsed, he needs to preserve what he can of his war machine. He can’t flee, as he is an ICC criminal. He can’t hide, because his people will find him.
From your analysis, he needs to ramp up the war even more. Economic destruction by war is what it sounds like.
But can he? It sounds like Putin's already on the ropes.
I don’t believe any dictator has tried such a stupid strategy of running your economy to fully be fueled by war. It always implodes, and the dictator dies or runs away.
If he can get Krasnov to splinter support for Ukraine, it might work. He’ll gradually take over Ukraine, and use Ukraine’s weapons and food against Europe.
If Ukraine holds the line, he’ll become more desperate. What am I learning is never underestimate the evil an evil person will do. Putin is evil. He’ll do whatever he can to buy time. He is using Iran and North Korea weapons and people for support. Is he demented enough to attack the Baltics?
I'm curious what the tradeoff would be for Russia if Trump eases sanctions (I hope he doesn't and I think it's at best 50/50), but because of the trade war Trump is starting, oil crashes below $40/barrel. That might push the Russian economy of the edge despite any sanctions relief.
That would be a positive development.
My understanding is Europe is staying firm and saying no sanctions relief until Russia pulls out of Ukraine completely. If the US Congress can pass a veto proof sanctions package on Russia of anyone buying Russian oil gets 500% tariffs, game over for Russia.
Something I'd not heard of until last year: how Nazi Germany used MEFO bills to push their economy, if completely unsustainably.
https://medium.com/westenberg/the-truth-behind-authoritarian-economic-miracles-50e9ae10c86e
Spot on. Didn’t know about MeFo bills. I kept reading to see where Russia is, and they are all the way at the end. The US Congress is looking to tariff anyone buying Russian oil. Putin is sacrificing his own people through violence. Ukraine is destroying Russia’s armed forces and oil refineries. What is left of Russia when food is scarce and you need golf carts and donkeys to go into battle?
Russia is screwed. Their demographics were horrible before Putin got a hankering for invading Ukraine and their economy is being held together with tape.
There are far right who say "We need another Hitler" with Trump wanting generals like Hitler's.
Clearly, neither has looked at how that went for Hitler's Germany or Putin's Russia.
Morons all of them. They don’t understand the consequences of history. Trump acts like he is the first dictator.
Highly illuminating if terrifying. The stakes couldn’t be higher for backing Ukraine. But if Putin needs this war to last essentially for his lifetime, as that is what he is trying to preserve, what can Ukraine do? Can a cordon of sorts be set up around Russia to contain it like the Versailles Treaty or something? Or do we just hope to push until the economy of Russia is destroyed, the gold reserves gone, conscripts fleeing, starvation rampant, no jobs…? Could Trump really pull off a save? Would the Congress allow it? He has already failed to put new tariffs on Russia and that has not gone unnoticed…
Putin will continue the Russian war against Ukrainians until he literally can no longer.
https://substack.com/@andrewchakhoyan/note/c-105904552
"Human safaris" and all.
https://substack.com/@olenakryzhanivska/note/c-105835830?
Great analysis!
This is pretty grim for Ukraine if Putin has no real incentive to stop the war.
It is. But there are plenty of westerners who still idly ask why there isn't peace yet.
If Russians stop fighting, Putin is doomed.
If Ukrainians stop fighting, Ukrainians are doomed.
That’s why it’s so important for Europe to provide Ukraine with whatever is needed (besides what the Ukrainians can produce themselves) to make continued war-fighting even more politically unsustainable for Russia than the alternatives.
he cannot stop the war, what will he do with half a million amphetime driven heavly aarmed alchos
Russia is already having problems with returning veterans of their invasion of Ukraine, while the war is still ongoing.
https://jamestown.substack.com/p/russia-faces-upsurge-in-crime-as
Wow interesting, and this is what Trump's backers want to happen here....
Putin is destroying russia from within. Good! Time to get rid of the russian cancer for good!
#AnnihilaterussiaNOW