“France and Britain must immediately authorize long-range missile transfers to Ukraine—not next quarter, not next month, but this week. Ukraine should receive explicit permission to target the Shahed production facilities that manufactured the drones used against Poland.”
Excellent Analysis Shankar. Quick question though? Why is Russia escalating the war into NATO territory? Trump has proven to be toothless when it comes to Russia, so is Putin just sending a message that NATO shouldn’t expect America’s help?
Because I’m not sure what he has to gain when he can’t even move his troops deep into Ukrainian territory. Are we missing something here?
He needs to control the escalation ladder. He did not want to risk another direct hit on American company as he knows what the response will be. By attacking poland he can still use the American tech bros support to stop the US from stepping up. Remember Maga faction is nativist right. So why should we help poland? Makes a lot of sense what he did.. also gives domestic cover.
If control of the escalation ladder is key and a multiple response of targeting Russia's drone production makes sense, ramped up delivery of offensive and defensive deliveries to Ukraine, why not add sanctions since financial knee-capping is the short cut to folding at this otherwise sadistic game table. Easier said than done- i understand.
Thank you Shankar. I am reading "Occupation, The Ordeal of France 1940-1944" by Ian Ousby, which Greg Olear, PREVAIL recommended. I am being introduced to the relationship between France, the UK and Nazi Germany, which was a hole in my knowledge, learning about the Armistice, June 22, 1940 and Mers-el--Kebir July 1940. The intracies of the history of the relationships between the members of the European Union from 1940 into WWII are helping me, understand some of the slow movement we are seeing today. I also wonder, if the political situation in France today, reporting even Macron is under scrutiny today is adding to the delays to help Ukraine. This is written by a person whose High School Social Studies teacher, Mr. Romano said, "such a history student, I have never seen before". I am trying to digest everything and very much appreciate your articles to get a grasp of events as they are unfolding...
I have been reading around 1900-1945, this is the first book discussing the Occupation in France. It’s a revelation. The book is very good, a slow read. I am learning about Petain and Leval right now who basically did what trump is likely dreaming about if he sleeps having all powers of the government turned over to one person.
I’m guessing that Putin was, amongst other possibilities, demonstrating his ability to hit the western Ukraine border with Poland which is, after all, the point of entry of land-delivered munitions into Ukraine, including the pending arrival of any long range missiles - the “I’ve got my eye on you” factor.
It would be interesting to see the routes taken by these drone incursions - I believe some originated in Belarus. If Russian drones don’t have to traverse the whole of Ukraine to reach the west then, of course, they are less likely to be shot down. Certainly, Russian drones wouldn’t be expected to arrive from the west which these seemingly did and therefore had added surprise-value. Putin was testing the water for future strikes from that direction.
An ancillary benefit Putin derives from this attack is a hateful psychological message to Ukrainian refugees living in Poland that he can come after them there. They will feel that.
"Authorizing Ukraine to strike the Shahed production facility that manufactured yesterday's drones should top the response list."
Maybe this is within the realm of the realistic, but it's aiming low. All restrictions need to be lifted on the use of missiles supplied by France & UK, We can't accept the handcuffs placed on Ukraine. I was listening to Phillips O'Brien's substack chat today. There's a whole generation of long range missiles superior to ATACMs that the U.S. could be providing. Whither the Taurus?
We're in insane dysfunction. With Trump at the helm, it's not shocking. But Europe seems very passive. Authorizing a single tit-for-tat Shahed production strike is too little. It concedes that the status quo is workable.
Agreed. At the very least, there should be a No-Fly zone. It would be good to see a token ground force on the ground, too, but I doubt Europe has the stomach for it yet. Full implementation of sanctions and closing off the Baltic to Russia's shadow fleet should be part of a strong response. The Baltics will, most likely, be the next "test" by Russia if Europe and NATO fail to respond forcefully. No one wants a wider war, but that's the most likely outcome if Russia continues its aggressive actions, and increasingly blatant acts of sabotage.
Shankar, this is not so much about the US as it is Europe. Ursula Von der Leyen today in the SOTEU said the EU will defend every inch of its territory. That is a stake in the ground. In is unequivocal. Now it must be followed up with action as it will happen again and in increasing numbers. This was a Russian probe to look at interdicting munitions and equipment moving through Poland destined for Ukraine. Agree the establishment of a “no fly zone” with drones and aircraft is a must. But we cannot expend $2 million for knocking out a $100 k drone. That is a cost benefit loser. Save the Patriots and other anti air missile systems for Russian missiles and aircraft. Europe has been at war since 24 February 2022. Time to wake up to that reality. How many Baltic cables need to be cut? How many acts of industrial and other sabotage need to happen? The whole Chamberlain redux is getting old!
Well. I wish. That reckless word did not make me feel confident. It was after pistorious made that statement things changed. Macron has to decide. It is in his hands now. Not sure. Ursula can only make statements. Power is not with her. Sad but reality
Agree Macron screwed up badly. “Reckless” was a way of not having to act. It is the Czechs and then Boris Pistorius who set the right tone. I think where you and I agree is that Europe needs to step up with action! Words mean nothing without deeds. Power may not be with Ursula, but can you imagine her saying that a year ago? That is a shift. Leadership needs to come from somewhere to start.
Please take a look at Paul Warburgs latest post (https://youtu.be/kAqHnMXLUno). In my opinion, he describes a much more plausible explanation for Russia's attacks on Poland: to stir up fear of an attack on NATO member states (which will never happen) so that weapons are held back there for their own defense (which will never be necessary) and thus prevent these weapons from being delivered to Ukraine. Paul provides a truly fantastic analysis here, which, in my (and his) opinion, should be required reading for European leaders and defense ministries.
While I completely agree with your conclusions I have not been able to find the word used by Macron in French that you translate as "reckless." All I can find is "inacceptable." Reckless means "without heed for consequences." Why does that imply lack of intention? I think Putin is being both reckless and intentional. He is deliberately and recklessly testing Western defenses.
You are very diplomatic. I, on the other hand, am happy to point out that any Trump attempt at fancy footwork results to n everyone falling on their faces. Putin is able to manipulate Trump in an alarming way. I was not being hyperbolic in saying Trump had been Putin’s fanboy for decades. Trump must be placed in a position where inaction or waffling is totally unacceptable and would reveal just how spineless he is. I was under the perhaps mistaken impression that he had made remarks before the attack on Poland indicating he was backing away from NATO. Whatever happened, Putin saw the red flag.And once Putin starts attacking he will not stop until he is forced to do so. To complete his mission of Russian expansion he must up his pace. He has lost a lot of time in Ukraine.
Frankly, I am surprised that Europe didn’t start to up its game months ago with th first of Putin’s drone exploratory into the rest of Europe. The Baltics and Finland have been on high alert, but mainly for ground forces, not drones.
I know you have always thought Macron was at heart a good statesman. I have never thought him completely reliable. His diplomatic prowess rests occasionally on feet of clay. He has done well with Ukraine. But now he has faltered. He is a better diplomat than a leader. And of course he is coping with a domestic political crisis, so I must cut him some slack here.
What I fear most is Trump inserting his foot.
Thank you for this excellent pulling together of all threads.
“France and Britain must immediately authorize long-range missile transfers to Ukraine—not next quarter, not next month, but this week. Ukraine should receive explicit permission to target the Shahed production facilities that manufactured the drones used against Poland.”
Excellent Analysis Shankar. Quick question though? Why is Russia escalating the war into NATO territory? Trump has proven to be toothless when it comes to Russia, so is Putin just sending a message that NATO shouldn’t expect America’s help?
Because I’m not sure what he has to gain when he can’t even move his troops deep into Ukrainian territory. Are we missing something here?
He needs to control the escalation ladder. He did not want to risk another direct hit on American company as he knows what the response will be. By attacking poland he can still use the American tech bros support to stop the US from stepping up. Remember Maga faction is nativist right. So why should we help poland? Makes a lot of sense what he did.. also gives domestic cover.
If control of the escalation ladder is key and a multiple response of targeting Russia's drone production makes sense, ramped up delivery of offensive and defensive deliveries to Ukraine, why not add sanctions since financial knee-capping is the short cut to folding at this otherwise sadistic game table. Easier said than done- i understand.
Thank you Shankar. I am reading "Occupation, The Ordeal of France 1940-1944" by Ian Ousby, which Greg Olear, PREVAIL recommended. I am being introduced to the relationship between France, the UK and Nazi Germany, which was a hole in my knowledge, learning about the Armistice, June 22, 1940 and Mers-el--Kebir July 1940. The intracies of the history of the relationships between the members of the European Union from 1940 into WWII are helping me, understand some of the slow movement we are seeing today. I also wonder, if the political situation in France today, reporting even Macron is under scrutiny today is adding to the delays to help Ukraine. This is written by a person whose High School Social Studies teacher, Mr. Romano said, "such a history student, I have never seen before". I am trying to digest everything and very much appreciate your articles to get a grasp of events as they are unfolding...
Wow. You rolled a long way back.
I have been reading around 1900-1945, this is the first book discussing the Occupation in France. It’s a revelation. The book is very good, a slow read. I am learning about Petain and Leval right now who basically did what trump is likely dreaming about if he sleeps having all powers of the government turned over to one person.
Excellent analysis from the perspective we all need to understand.
This is a real “game of thrones.”
I’m guessing that Putin was, amongst other possibilities, demonstrating his ability to hit the western Ukraine border with Poland which is, after all, the point of entry of land-delivered munitions into Ukraine, including the pending arrival of any long range missiles - the “I’ve got my eye on you” factor.
It would be interesting to see the routes taken by these drone incursions - I believe some originated in Belarus. If Russian drones don’t have to traverse the whole of Ukraine to reach the west then, of course, they are less likely to be shot down. Certainly, Russian drones wouldn’t be expected to arrive from the west which these seemingly did and therefore had added surprise-value. Putin was testing the water for future strikes from that direction.
Trump: “We will help Poland protect itself.”
Putin seems to take that as an invitation for an attack. How could he waste such an opportunity to embarrass the US!?
yep
An ancillary benefit Putin derives from this attack is a hateful psychological message to Ukrainian refugees living in Poland that he can come after them there. They will feel that.
How long will it take for mainstream media to report the drone attack?…my bet…3 days or never.
Probably never
"Authorizing Ukraine to strike the Shahed production facility that manufactured yesterday's drones should top the response list."
Maybe this is within the realm of the realistic, but it's aiming low. All restrictions need to be lifted on the use of missiles supplied by France & UK, We can't accept the handcuffs placed on Ukraine. I was listening to Phillips O'Brien's substack chat today. There's a whole generation of long range missiles superior to ATACMs that the U.S. could be providing. Whither the Taurus?
We're in insane dysfunction. With Trump at the helm, it's not shocking. But Europe seems very passive. Authorizing a single tit-for-tat Shahed production strike is too little. It concedes that the status quo is workable.
Agreed. At the very least, there should be a No-Fly zone. It would be good to see a token ground force on the ground, too, but I doubt Europe has the stomach for it yet. Full implementation of sanctions and closing off the Baltic to Russia's shadow fleet should be part of a strong response. The Baltics will, most likely, be the next "test" by Russia if Europe and NATO fail to respond forcefully. No one wants a wider war, but that's the most likely outcome if Russia continues its aggressive actions, and increasingly blatant acts of sabotage.
Shankar, this is not so much about the US as it is Europe. Ursula Von der Leyen today in the SOTEU said the EU will defend every inch of its territory. That is a stake in the ground. In is unequivocal. Now it must be followed up with action as it will happen again and in increasing numbers. This was a Russian probe to look at interdicting munitions and equipment moving through Poland destined for Ukraine. Agree the establishment of a “no fly zone” with drones and aircraft is a must. But we cannot expend $2 million for knocking out a $100 k drone. That is a cost benefit loser. Save the Patriots and other anti air missile systems for Russian missiles and aircraft. Europe has been at war since 24 February 2022. Time to wake up to that reality. How many Baltic cables need to be cut? How many acts of industrial and other sabotage need to happen? The whole Chamberlain redux is getting old!
Well. I wish. That reckless word did not make me feel confident. It was after pistorious made that statement things changed. Macron has to decide. It is in his hands now. Not sure. Ursula can only make statements. Power is not with her. Sad but reality
Agree Macron screwed up badly. “Reckless” was a way of not having to act. It is the Czechs and then Boris Pistorius who set the right tone. I think where you and I agree is that Europe needs to step up with action! Words mean nothing without deeds. Power may not be with Ursula, but can you imagine her saying that a year ago? That is a shift. Leadership needs to come from somewhere to start.
Agreed
Please take a look at Paul Warburgs latest post (https://youtu.be/kAqHnMXLUno). In my opinion, he describes a much more plausible explanation for Russia's attacks on Poland: to stir up fear of an attack on NATO member states (which will never happen) so that weapons are held back there for their own defense (which will never be necessary) and thus prevent these weapons from being delivered to Ukraine. Paul provides a truly fantastic analysis here, which, in my (and his) opinion, should be required reading for European leaders and defense ministries.
why the heck is ukraine not allowed to target the drone factory, a half a dozen flamingos should cure putins habit of sending drones in abundance
While I completely agree with your conclusions I have not been able to find the word used by Macron in French that you translate as "reckless." All I can find is "inacceptable." Reckless means "without heed for consequences." Why does that imply lack of intention? I think Putin is being both reckless and intentional. He is deliberately and recklessly testing Western defenses.
There is a difference between saying the attack is deliberate like pistorious said and saying it is reckless.
The second one allows you to issue statements the first one does not.
Macron is not using it anymore. Lets wait. We will know more in a few days.
You are very diplomatic. I, on the other hand, am happy to point out that any Trump attempt at fancy footwork results to n everyone falling on their faces. Putin is able to manipulate Trump in an alarming way. I was not being hyperbolic in saying Trump had been Putin’s fanboy for decades. Trump must be placed in a position where inaction or waffling is totally unacceptable and would reveal just how spineless he is. I was under the perhaps mistaken impression that he had made remarks before the attack on Poland indicating he was backing away from NATO. Whatever happened, Putin saw the red flag.And once Putin starts attacking he will not stop until he is forced to do so. To complete his mission of Russian expansion he must up his pace. He has lost a lot of time in Ukraine.
Frankly, I am surprised that Europe didn’t start to up its game months ago with th first of Putin’s drone exploratory into the rest of Europe. The Baltics and Finland have been on high alert, but mainly for ground forces, not drones.
I know you have always thought Macron was at heart a good statesman. I have never thought him completely reliable. His diplomatic prowess rests occasionally on feet of clay. He has done well with Ukraine. But now he has faltered. He is a better diplomat than a leader. And of course he is coping with a domestic political crisis, so I must cut him some slack here.
What I fear most is Trump inserting his foot.
Thank you for this excellent pulling together of all threads.