Thank you Shankar. One bit of good news. is that Israel sent Patriot air-defense systems to Ukraine
Horror Show. I am reading Vassily Grossman's "Stalingrad" The Nazi's are bombing Stalingrad there is no where to go, even the ceiling of the bomb shelters are shaking. I know the outcome, but I truly wonder what will be.
In Grossman's book, page 560. "The twentieth century is a critical and dangerous time for humanity. It is time for intelligent people to renounce, once and for all, the thoughtless and sentimental habit of admitting a criminal if the scope of his criminality is vast enough, of admiring an arsonist if he sets fire not to a village hut but to capital cities, of tolerating a demogogue if he deceives not just an uneducated lad from a village but entire nations, of pardoning a murderer because he has killed one individual but millions."
... on to p 561 And if the forest of darkness engender new Hitlers, playing on people's basest and most backward instincts in order to further new criminal designs against humanity, let no one see in them any traitor of grandeur or heroism.
A crime is a crime, and criminals do not cease to be criminals because their crimes are recorded in history and their names are remembered. A criminal remains a criminal: a murderer remains a murderer.
History's only true heroes, the only true leaders on mankind are those who help to establish freedom, who see freedom as the greatest strength of an individual, a nation or a state, who fight for the equality, in all respects, of every individual, people and nation."
“When the Ukraine war began, I flagged two countries facing existential crises: Israel and South Korea. You see why now. I also said—if they don’t help Ukraine defeat Russia, war will eventually come knocking on their own doors. For Israel, it arrived early, in the form of Hamas. But did they reform their national security posture? No. They targeted Hamas—the arrow—while ignoring the archer. And they’ll keep striking arrows, over and over, as the archer keeps getting stronger.”
I 100% agree Shankar, and well said! And let’s not forget, part of Israel’s National Security disaster was that Netanyahu supported Qatar’s billions in support of Hamas; the reason Hamas had the ability to strike Israel in the first place.
Additionally, Netanyahu knew of the terrorist attack a year in advance and allowed it to happen; with maximum impact (Israeli civilian and military deaths).
Moreover, now we’re supposed to thank Netanyahu for stumbling into success, when his administration could have been responsible for starting WW3 or ignited the powder keg in the region; causing oil prices to spike, and economies to crash!
Netanyahu reminds me of Mr. MaGoo; a clown who in spite of his stupidity, somehow managed to find success (see Trump)!
Personally, it’s not worth the risk, and given Netanyahu’s nefarious motives, I wouldn’t trust him as far as I could spit! IMHO…:)
He KNEW? WTAF... I'm not well-versed in this stuff, and I haven't read that Netanyahu knew the Oct 7 attack was going to happen...and helped maximize its impact! I knew about the shady AF setup with Qatar funding Hamas, but wow... I need to read about this. 😨
It is a bit complicated. But he and his policies played a major role in letting Hamas grow. So in a convoluted way you can assume the worst, not using a direct line.
As long as the strikes are targeted at bomb-making facilities, fine. As you say, we don't need more dictatorships armed to Armagdeddon. But I read a snippet (of news) in a popular Substack this morning which mentioned the effects on the price of oil of the destruction of Iran's oil infrastructure. Say what? Call me crazy, but if this is in the works, it would fit well with Trump's role as Putin's puppydog, as it would likely result in more demand for Russian petroleum. Can someone do more checking on this?
Hasn’t this shown that Israel’s national security focus has been on Iran? To target so many leaders took long investment in intelligence. So did understanding how to take down their air defenses. Same with Hezbollah, Iran’s most powerful proxy. Israel’s intelligence services and military have clearly been focusing on Iran and almost exclusively.
In contrast, they knew little about Hamas, Hamas’s tunnels, Hamas’s capabilities despite how much control they have over Gaza. They even funneled money to Hamas to divide Palestinians.
I’d say that this shows that power resided with a certain faction of Israeli political elite intent on seizing as much of the West Bank as possible and stopping a Palestinian state. The aim of degrading the Palestinians was political rather than strategic.
Anyway, how dangerous is Russia, Iran, and North Korea’s increasing connection?
To me, it’s the Chinese involvement that is a bigger story. They protect North Korea and allow it to support Russia. They support Russia with materials, trade, and diplomatic support. Their economy and military might are gigantic.
Intelligence and the IDF have always been capable—that was never in doubt. But national security is not just about capability. It's about execution. It's about administration. It’s about long-term vision—bringing all those capabilities together in a unified direction to achieve results.
Results that protect people even after you’re gone. Even after you’re dead.
Any government that fails to do that should be shown the door. That’s what the current administration has done—failed. One right decision, even if they’re making it now, does not erase a pattern of past mistakes. And the pattern here is clear: this administration’s approach to governance is not good for Israel. It’s not good for anyone in the Middle East.
Israel needs a better government.
One that can protect not just borders, but the future.
I agree that the Israel government has failed completely. I just think the failure was caused by politics that weren’t about national security and instead were a mix of personal and anti-Palestinian.
I disagree. A nuclear armed Iran is NOT a national security threat to the USA or Israel. Remember Israel has nuclear weapons. If Iran and Saudi Arabia get nuclear weapons that would push the USA out of the Persian Gulf and that would be a great thing for us. How much blood and treasure have we wasted (Trillions!). We would not have the massive deficits we have without all these useless Middle Eastern wars.
Since 1979, Iran’s leadership has been working towards the destruction of Israel. They spent billions funding and arming Hamas, Hezbollah, Assad, and the Houtis. They put their money where their mouth was. Israel has no choice but to take them seriously and expect Iran would use their nukes to take out Tel Aviv, Jerusalem, Haifa, and any other large population center.
Your "it's only fair" argument is juvenile. Israel has nukes but has never threatened to use them (as far as I'm aware). Pretending that having second strike ability is sufficient is an argument for national suicide.
Nuclear weapons are an effective deterrent against nuclear weapons. See Pakistan and India. Iran is dangerous but not insane. Second strike is a very effective deterrent and has been used since nuclear weapons were invented. Israel does not need to threaten to use them' it is implied. Was that a 'Juvenile" response jerk!
Nukes are a scourge on humanity. Israel has to assume that Iran is serious enough - to the tune of billions of dollars - to drop the bomb on them if allowed to finish development.
This is the third time Israel has attempted to take out an enemy's nuclear desires: Syria and Iraq were both denied Soviet processing plants.
It's a more nuanced response, but ignores that Israel has to view nukes as existential threats. This is not a case of western logoc: it's a case of irrational fundamentalist driving a sense of divine mission. Same thing drove 9-11 and 10-7. An Iranian nuke equals the death if Israel. An Israeli nuke - as decades have demonstrated - means nothing.
I disagree. Pakistan has sponsored many terrorist groups and that has not led to nuclear strikes on India. The idea that Iran is uniquely irrational is False. Nations are more rational than terrorist groups. Since nuclear weapons are only really useful in deterring nuclear strikes the Israeli nukes cannot be considered useless. If Iran gets nukes then they will de deterred from using them. Iran is likely building nukes to deter other nations from strikes and invasion. No one will invade N Korea and I think Iran wants that same security. I do not like the spread of Nuclear Weapons, but I do not think stopping them in Iran is a national security need of the USA.
Pakistan is not governed by religious fanatics who require hijabs for women under threat of life-threatening beatings, execute LBGTQ, suppress and murder members of Bahai, and fund regional terrorist organizations outside their own borders. Pakistan does not have a government that sponsors rallies of its citizens to chant Death to the US.
Pakistan has a government that is more or less rational and committed to governance. Iran has a government committee to enforcing the strictest interpretation of Sharia law, even with a constituency that may be majority liberal. Israel has no choice but to assume the worst.
Israel has a right to assume the worst, but that does not mean the USA should get into another middle eastern war. I am worried that Trump is about to bomb Iran.
. reports by IAEA and US intelligence this year advise that Iran has no imminent nuclear bomb capability. It’s hard to believe that only Netanyahu knows that Iran is nearing this capability.
. Many (including yourself I believe) have said that Russia has very poor capability to rebuild the aircraft damaged on 1 June by Ukraina’s ‘Spiderweb’ operation. How is then possible for Iran to buy Russian fighter planes?
I think you are one of the few who write impressively well on these affairs and read all I can of your posts and essays - hence my puzzlement.
Iran is the only non nuke nation purifying uranium to 60% concentration for which there is no Non-military use. Converting that to weapons grade uranium could be done in less than a week.
Thanks for this link - very helpful and (hopefully) trustworthy, given it’s a ‘non-profit and non-partisan institution’ and well-regarded as an independent source of information.
Because Israel won't use them. Iran, OTOH, has spent billions to try and destroy Israel. Israel has to assume Iran will use nukes if they have them. Israel with nukes is an annoyance. Iran with nukes is an existential threat.
They don't want Iran to have nukes because they are convinced Iran will use them. Since 1979, Iran has done everything possible to convince the world that they put the destruction of Israel right next to the destruction of the US. I'm sorry that all passed you by
Hmmn…as Dave and Matt have pointed out, the destruction of Iran’s largest natural gas production field has literally saved Gazprom from bankruptcy. The result is Gazprom now has two new major customers in Turkey and Iraq.
"This exact brand of strategic stupidity is what let Hamas evolve into the threat it became."
Not stupidity, hubris. Netanyahu truly believed he had tamed Hamas by helping it's leadership to become fabulously wealthy. When he was told of plans to attack, he discounted them because his pet was not about to turn on him.
This afforded him the ability to concentrate all of his vindictiveness on driving West Bank occupation and limiting reprisals to Palestinians. This was a necessary condition to maintaining increasingly far right-wing coalitions.
Ok. Stupidity as well as hubris. But that's his western mindset, that materialism trumps religious fantasy and fanaticism. His worshipping to that materialistic deity is what will have earned him a spin in prison.
I am heartened to read this - I said to another that if we have to finish Iran's bunkers off, so be it. They were mildly taken aback, but now that Israel's injured their enemy grievously, leaving them enraged and more resolved on nuclear weapons than ever before would be the incredibly foolish. Iran has goaded its neighbors endlessly in the decades since the revolution and its export of mayhem abroad might exceed that of oil... no small feat. It would be difficult to imagine a worse government than the present one emerging from the wreckage.
Thank you Shankar. One bit of good news. is that Israel sent Patriot air-defense systems to Ukraine
Horror Show. I am reading Vassily Grossman's "Stalingrad" The Nazi's are bombing Stalingrad there is no where to go, even the ceiling of the bomb shelters are shaking. I know the outcome, but I truly wonder what will be.
In Grossman's book, page 560. "The twentieth century is a critical and dangerous time for humanity. It is time for intelligent people to renounce, once and for all, the thoughtless and sentimental habit of admitting a criminal if the scope of his criminality is vast enough, of admiring an arsonist if he sets fire not to a village hut but to capital cities, of tolerating a demogogue if he deceives not just an uneducated lad from a village but entire nations, of pardoning a murderer because he has killed one individual but millions."
... on to p 561 And if the forest of darkness engender new Hitlers, playing on people's basest and most backward instincts in order to further new criminal designs against humanity, let no one see in them any traitor of grandeur or heroism.
A crime is a crime, and criminals do not cease to be criminals because their crimes are recorded in history and their names are remembered. A criminal remains a criminal: a murderer remains a murderer.
History's only true heroes, the only true leaders on mankind are those who help to establish freedom, who see freedom as the greatest strength of an individual, a nation or a state, who fight for the equality, in all respects, of every individual, people and nation."
They are not saying how many. It looks like it was more than 1 and that itself is a huge deal.
Shankar just to finally hear that Israel ‘Gave” a System after holding back for so long….
“When the Ukraine war began, I flagged two countries facing existential crises: Israel and South Korea. You see why now. I also said—if they don’t help Ukraine defeat Russia, war will eventually come knocking on their own doors. For Israel, it arrived early, in the form of Hamas. But did they reform their national security posture? No. They targeted Hamas—the arrow—while ignoring the archer. And they’ll keep striking arrows, over and over, as the archer keeps getting stronger.”
I 100% agree Shankar, and well said! And let’s not forget, part of Israel’s National Security disaster was that Netanyahu supported Qatar’s billions in support of Hamas; the reason Hamas had the ability to strike Israel in the first place.
Additionally, Netanyahu knew of the terrorist attack a year in advance and allowed it to happen; with maximum impact (Israeli civilian and military deaths).
Moreover, now we’re supposed to thank Netanyahu for stumbling into success, when his administration could have been responsible for starting WW3 or ignited the powder keg in the region; causing oil prices to spike, and economies to crash!
Netanyahu reminds me of Mr. MaGoo; a clown who in spite of his stupidity, somehow managed to find success (see Trump)!
Personally, it’s not worth the risk, and given Netanyahu’s nefarious motives, I wouldn’t trust him as far as I could spit! IMHO…:)
Yep. He needs to go.
He KNEW? WTAF... I'm not well-versed in this stuff, and I haven't read that Netanyahu knew the Oct 7 attack was going to happen...and helped maximize its impact! I knew about the shady AF setup with Qatar funding Hamas, but wow... I need to read about this. 😨
It is a bit complicated. But he and his policies played a major role in letting Hamas grow. So in a convoluted way you can assume the worst, not using a direct line.
Another great example of the high quality strategic explanation that Shankar does. Gary Kasparov is also an excellent source of strategic thinking.
As long as the strikes are targeted at bomb-making facilities, fine. As you say, we don't need more dictatorships armed to Armagdeddon. But I read a snippet (of news) in a popular Substack this morning which mentioned the effects on the price of oil of the destruction of Iran's oil infrastructure. Say what? Call me crazy, but if this is in the works, it would fit well with Trump's role as Putin's puppydog, as it would likely result in more demand for Russian petroleum. Can someone do more checking on this?
Agree. I support moving against the nuclear facilities, not regime change through military means.
Please, not "the Ukraine war"; it's Russia's war on Ukraine or the Russo-Ukrainian war.
You'd never call it "the Israel war," would you
Agreed.
Hasn’t this shown that Israel’s national security focus has been on Iran? To target so many leaders took long investment in intelligence. So did understanding how to take down their air defenses. Same with Hezbollah, Iran’s most powerful proxy. Israel’s intelligence services and military have clearly been focusing on Iran and almost exclusively.
In contrast, they knew little about Hamas, Hamas’s tunnels, Hamas’s capabilities despite how much control they have over Gaza. They even funneled money to Hamas to divide Palestinians.
I’d say that this shows that power resided with a certain faction of Israeli political elite intent on seizing as much of the West Bank as possible and stopping a Palestinian state. The aim of degrading the Palestinians was political rather than strategic.
Anyway, how dangerous is Russia, Iran, and North Korea’s increasing connection?
To me, it’s the Chinese involvement that is a bigger story. They protect North Korea and allow it to support Russia. They support Russia with materials, trade, and diplomatic support. Their economy and military might are gigantic.
Intelligence and the IDF have always been capable—that was never in doubt. But national security is not just about capability. It's about execution. It's about administration. It’s about long-term vision—bringing all those capabilities together in a unified direction to achieve results.
Results that protect people even after you’re gone. Even after you’re dead.
Any government that fails to do that should be shown the door. That’s what the current administration has done—failed. One right decision, even if they’re making it now, does not erase a pattern of past mistakes. And the pattern here is clear: this administration’s approach to governance is not good for Israel. It’s not good for anyone in the Middle East.
Israel needs a better government.
One that can protect not just borders, but the future.
I agree that the Israel government has failed completely. I just think the failure was caused by politics that weren’t about national security and instead were a mix of personal and anti-Palestinian.
I disagree. A nuclear armed Iran is NOT a national security threat to the USA or Israel. Remember Israel has nuclear weapons. If Iran and Saudi Arabia get nuclear weapons that would push the USA out of the Persian Gulf and that would be a great thing for us. How much blood and treasure have we wasted (Trillions!). We would not have the massive deficits we have without all these useless Middle Eastern wars.
Since 1979, Iran’s leadership has been working towards the destruction of Israel. They spent billions funding and arming Hamas, Hezbollah, Assad, and the Houtis. They put their money where their mouth was. Israel has no choice but to take them seriously and expect Iran would use their nukes to take out Tel Aviv, Jerusalem, Haifa, and any other large population center.
Your "it's only fair" argument is juvenile. Israel has nukes but has never threatened to use them (as far as I'm aware). Pretending that having second strike ability is sufficient is an argument for national suicide.
Nuclear weapons are an effective deterrent against nuclear weapons. See Pakistan and India. Iran is dangerous but not insane. Second strike is a very effective deterrent and has been used since nuclear weapons were invented. Israel does not need to threaten to use them' it is implied. Was that a 'Juvenile" response jerk!
Nukes are a scourge on humanity. Israel has to assume that Iran is serious enough - to the tune of billions of dollars - to drop the bomb on them if allowed to finish development.
This is the third time Israel has attempted to take out an enemy's nuclear desires: Syria and Iraq were both denied Soviet processing plants.
It's a more nuanced response, but ignores that Israel has to view nukes as existential threats. This is not a case of western logoc: it's a case of irrational fundamentalist driving a sense of divine mission. Same thing drove 9-11 and 10-7. An Iranian nuke equals the death if Israel. An Israeli nuke - as decades have demonstrated - means nothing.
I disagree. Pakistan has sponsored many terrorist groups and that has not led to nuclear strikes on India. The idea that Iran is uniquely irrational is False. Nations are more rational than terrorist groups. Since nuclear weapons are only really useful in deterring nuclear strikes the Israeli nukes cannot be considered useless. If Iran gets nukes then they will de deterred from using them. Iran is likely building nukes to deter other nations from strikes and invasion. No one will invade N Korea and I think Iran wants that same security. I do not like the spread of Nuclear Weapons, but I do not think stopping them in Iran is a national security need of the USA.
Until you wear the shoes ...
Pakistan is not governed by religious fanatics who require hijabs for women under threat of life-threatening beatings, execute LBGTQ, suppress and murder members of Bahai, and fund regional terrorist organizations outside their own borders. Pakistan does not have a government that sponsors rallies of its citizens to chant Death to the US.
Pakistan has a government that is more or less rational and committed to governance. Iran has a government committee to enforcing the strictest interpretation of Sharia law, even with a constituency that may be majority liberal. Israel has no choice but to assume the worst.
Israel has a right to assume the worst, but that does not mean the USA should get into another middle eastern war. I am worried that Trump is about to bomb Iran.
Canada just put sanctions on Russia.
They also funded Ukraine, using Russia’s OWN MONEY that had been seized.
I’m puzzled by a couple of things in your piece:
. reports by IAEA and US intelligence this year advise that Iran has no imminent nuclear bomb capability. It’s hard to believe that only Netanyahu knows that Iran is nearing this capability.
. Many (including yourself I believe) have said that Russia has very poor capability to rebuild the aircraft damaged on 1 June by Ukraina’s ‘Spiderweb’ operation. How is then possible for Iran to buy Russian fighter planes?
I think you are one of the few who write impressively well on these affairs and read all I can of your posts and essays - hence my puzzlement.
https://isis-online.org/isis-reports/detail/analysis-of-iaea-iran-verification-and-monitoring-report-may-2025/
Iran is the only non nuke nation purifying uranium to 60% concentration for which there is no Non-military use. Converting that to weapons grade uranium could be done in less than a week.
Thanks for this link - very helpful and (hopefully) trustworthy, given it’s a ‘non-profit and non-partisan institution’ and well-regarded as an independent source of information.
Im confused - why is it ok for Israel to have nuclear weapons but not Iran?
It didnt - I get the rhetoric but Israels actions have been the most violent and expansionist.
Iran has no more interest in mutual destruction than Israel.
Israel wants the leverage.
And of course its a wonderful distraction as they finish decimating Gaza.
Because Israel won't use them. Iran, OTOH, has spent billions to try and destroy Israel. Israel has to assume Iran will use nukes if they have them. Israel with nukes is an annoyance. Iran with nukes is an existential threat.
And yet Israel is decimating Gaza & continues incusions into Syria.
Who is the cause of the unrest in the Middle East?
Iran could make the same case on behalf of the Palestinians.
Where is their right to exist?
Where is their deterrance?
Israel doesnt deter with nukes - it hangs them over the Middle East like the Sword of Damocles as it terrorises anyone that stands in its way.
They dont want Iran to have nukes
because mutual destruction moves the leverage.
They don't want Iran to have nukes because they are convinced Iran will use them. Since 1979, Iran has done everything possible to convince the world that they put the destruction of Israel right next to the destruction of the US. I'm sorry that all passed you by
Hmmn…as Dave and Matt have pointed out, the destruction of Iran’s largest natural gas production field has literally saved Gazprom from bankruptcy. The result is Gazprom now has two new major customers in Turkey and Iraq.
"This exact brand of strategic stupidity is what let Hamas evolve into the threat it became."
Not stupidity, hubris. Netanyahu truly believed he had tamed Hamas by helping it's leadership to become fabulously wealthy. When he was told of plans to attack, he discounted them because his pet was not about to turn on him.
This afforded him the ability to concentrate all of his vindictiveness on driving West Bank occupation and limiting reprisals to Palestinians. This was a necessary condition to maintaining increasingly far right-wing coalitions.
Ok. Stupidity as well as hubris. But that's his western mindset, that materialism trumps religious fantasy and fanaticism. His worshipping to that materialistic deity is what will have earned him a spin in prison.
Between the Big Beautiful Blunder Bill and the Middle East - things get scarier everyday.
I am heartened to read this - I said to another that if we have to finish Iran's bunkers off, so be it. They were mildly taken aback, but now that Israel's injured their enemy grievously, leaving them enraged and more resolved on nuclear weapons than ever before would be the incredibly foolish. Iran has goaded its neighbors endlessly in the decades since the revolution and its export of mayhem abroad might exceed that of oil... no small feat. It would be difficult to imagine a worse government than the present one emerging from the wreckage.
Excellent article.