Absolute music to my ears! I hate to admit to a kind of jingoistic pride, but as a goodly portion of my ancestors are French (via Quebec) I felt lifted up by the display of tres French bravado over the Black Sea. Which got zero, zip, nada coverage by the MSM I saw. Not only that, but your insights into the means via which autocracies fall gave form to some of my intuitive ruminations about this. It's been bracing to see some foreshadowing here in the form of the Trump-Musk fiasco. The bird of hope is on the wing. Thanks, Shankar. And, your posts do deserve a much wider audience.
It is ok. Macron is the key. The one key that stresses Putin every single day even when he knows he can run Trump like a puppet. And thank the gods that he will be there until 2027.
I haven't found you to be incorrect so far on things I feel qualified to evaluate before and after the fact - and this has tracked closely with my sentiments on the matter, though I've never troubled myself to put it so forcefully in print. That, and the fact I find myself more than a little braced by the analysis - it's why I am still subscribed after saying I was going to just do a single month because "good on you." :D
Indeed, Putin's nuclear threats can be dismissed for a number of reasons but I would suggest that an additional factor might be Ukrainian tactical nukes. Although this is highly speculative, they have the technology (they built most of the missiles for the USSR). they have access to fissionable material (outside of Zaporizhzhia), they have delivery systems. Zelenskyy, himself, alluded to acquisition of nuclear weapons in October, 2024 if Ukraine was denied NATO membership (although he later retracted his initial comments). If Ukraine had kept even a few of the nuclear-tipped missiles she gave up in the Budapest Memorandum it is doubtful that Putin would have launched his attacks in 2014 and 2022. Could such a program be kept secret from US or European intelligence services? The Israelis did it, and Ukraine has already surprised the world (and its allies, too) by several successful military operations (the Kursk offensive and the recent operation "SpiderWeb") that they launched after months of secret preparation. So, they have demonstrated that it is possible
Of course, this would be the most secret of all programs if they were, indeed, engaged in this course of action. Additionally, this pursuit of a nuclear option, if revealed, could prove problematic for Ukrainian allies who are against nuclear proliferation. Having taken into account the technical difficulties and political fall-out would a country facing ethnic and sovereign extinction, as Putin has often threatened, fail to take every avenue open to them for their defense?
Regardless of an actual Ukrainian nuclear program the Russo/Ukrainian conflict has taught countries around the world (South Korea, Japan, Saudi Arabia, and Poland, for instance) that possession of such weapons could act as an active deterrent from aggression.
Putin also knows that the bulk of the population lives in two cities too close to the border with Ukraine to avoid nuclear fallout drifting their way. Once it gets into the upper atmosphere, there will be no avoiding it.
Putin Protection Plan Part 1. They were always worried about Russia without Putin. That was more important than Ukraine and Europe. Genius. Some in the nat sec circles call him Mr. Paralysis by Analysis.
Thank you for this unexpected but persuasive analysis of the Russian nuclear threat. I am pleased to discover there is an actual rationale behind Putin’s fear of using nukes that exceeds my own gut feeling on the subject.
Absolute music to my ears! I hate to admit to a kind of jingoistic pride, but as a goodly portion of my ancestors are French (via Quebec) I felt lifted up by the display of tres French bravado over the Black Sea. Which got zero, zip, nada coverage by the MSM I saw. Not only that, but your insights into the means via which autocracies fall gave form to some of my intuitive ruminations about this. It's been bracing to see some foreshadowing here in the form of the Trump-Musk fiasco. The bird of hope is on the wing. Thanks, Shankar. And, your posts do deserve a much wider audience.
It is ok. Macron is the key. The one key that stresses Putin every single day even when he knows he can run Trump like a puppet. And thank the gods that he will be there until 2027.
A creepy clown puppet with a few broken strings!
Could be one of your best posts. Thank you.
I feel that way too.
Great analysis as usual
Thx, Sergio
I haven't found you to be incorrect so far on things I feel qualified to evaluate before and after the fact - and this has tracked closely with my sentiments on the matter, though I've never troubled myself to put it so forcefully in print. That, and the fact I find myself more than a little braced by the analysis - it's why I am still subscribed after saying I was going to just do a single month because "good on you." :D
Thanks Benjamin....
You're welcome!
Thank you Shankar for your insight!
Indeed, Putin's nuclear threats can be dismissed for a number of reasons but I would suggest that an additional factor might be Ukrainian tactical nukes. Although this is highly speculative, they have the technology (they built most of the missiles for the USSR). they have access to fissionable material (outside of Zaporizhzhia), they have delivery systems. Zelenskyy, himself, alluded to acquisition of nuclear weapons in October, 2024 if Ukraine was denied NATO membership (although he later retracted his initial comments). If Ukraine had kept even a few of the nuclear-tipped missiles she gave up in the Budapest Memorandum it is doubtful that Putin would have launched his attacks in 2014 and 2022. Could such a program be kept secret from US or European intelligence services? The Israelis did it, and Ukraine has already surprised the world (and its allies, too) by several successful military operations (the Kursk offensive and the recent operation "SpiderWeb") that they launched after months of secret preparation. So, they have demonstrated that it is possible
Of course, this would be the most secret of all programs if they were, indeed, engaged in this course of action. Additionally, this pursuit of a nuclear option, if revealed, could prove problematic for Ukrainian allies who are against nuclear proliferation. Having taken into account the technical difficulties and political fall-out would a country facing ethnic and sovereign extinction, as Putin has often threatened, fail to take every avenue open to them for their defense?
Regardless of an actual Ukrainian nuclear program the Russo/Ukrainian conflict has taught countries around the world (South Korea, Japan, Saudi Arabia, and Poland, for instance) that possession of such weapons could act as an active deterrent from aggression.
Putin also knows that the bulk of the population lives in two cities too close to the border with Ukraine to avoid nuclear fallout drifting their way. Once it gets into the upper atmosphere, there will be no avoiding it.
Bravo! Mic drop!…:)
Makes me glad....
And the fallout could easily move towards Russia.
Most likely will given the prevailing winds in that part of the world. Not to mention toward his allies.
how come joke sullivan could not figure this out
Putin Protection Plan Part 1. They were always worried about Russia without Putin. That was more important than Ukraine and Europe. Genius. Some in the nat sec circles call him Mr. Paralysis by Analysis.
Shankar!
Thanks for finally explaining that the Nuclear Threat - of which the U.S. Pentagon is so afraid- is just that - A THREAT!
Finally, let’s STOP Putin’s Nuclear shakedown of the Free World!
telling everyone to stand up against the bully, Putin!
Courage is rare!
It’s a pleasure to witness
Phew … thank goodness for Shankar! 😄
Thank you for this unexpected but persuasive analysis of the Russian nuclear threat. I am pleased to discover there is an actual rationale behind Putin’s fear of using nukes that exceeds my own gut feeling on the subject.
Damn Trump for adoring Putin.
I know it is a difficult one. Jake used it to fool Biden. It works.
I think we all have a gut reaction when we hear the word “nukes”. It doesn’t nnecessarily translate into a considered response.
Yes
Wonderful clear explanation. Thankyou
Excellent, excellent article! Informative as usual, and it cleared the fog for many. Appreciated very much!
*However, pharaonic Putin might take us all with him when he dies…
He loves himself way too much.
Putin can love himself too much and take us all with him when he dies...